|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Israel's Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to the swearing-in ceremony for Israeli lawmakers at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem, Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022. | Tsafrir Abayov/AP Photo | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Connor O’Brien and Nahal Toosi The likely return of BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to power in Israel will test President JOE BIDEN’s personalist approach to foreign policy. Biden believes the best way to resolve bilateral issues is to level with his counterpart through copious private discussions. That play worked to shorten a war between a Netanyahu-led Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip last year, as Biden placed increased pressure on Bibi to end the violence. Biden also chose not to wade deeply into the comatose Israeli-Palestinian peace process because it’s a time suck with little chance of success. The situation is vastly different this time around. Netanyahu is returning to the premiership with far-right coalition partners — namely ITAMAR BEN GVIR and BEZALEL SMOTRICH — who critics fear want to control more of the West Bank and favor Israelis over Palestinians in general. What’s not changing is U.S. policy toward Israel and the Middle East, per a Sunday speech by Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN to the left-leaning pro-Israel J Street advocacy group. Blinken said the administration believes in a two-state solution based on 1967 lines and a return to the Iran nuclear deal, among other things, all likely to roil Netanyahu and his leadership team. Pursuing those goals was hard enough the last time Biden and Netanyahu were colleagues. It’ll be harder this time around as Bibi must keep his ultranationalist flank happy to remain in control and possibly avoid prison . That will push Biden’s personal diplomacy abilities to the max. “The privately-expressing-discontent approach is not really going to work with this new Israeli government because they’re so in your face. They’re going to be very bold and they’re going to deliberately test the administration in how far it’s willing to go,” said KHALED ELGINDY, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “If the new government crosses the Biden administration’s red lines, they’ll need to take meaningful action — or else risk letting an already incendiary situation grow far, far worse,” J Street President JEREMY BEN-AMI added on. Blinken, after all, made no threats to reprimand Israel, such as cutting military aid, for trampling on Palestinian rights. The president’s aides stress that Blinken simply laid out policies that will help move the U.S.-Israeli relationship forward and that Washington will be able to work with whoever is in charge in Jerusalem. Any disagreements will be handled as friends do. “The ability to speak frankly and to hear different perspectives on issues, that's what marks the strength of a strong relationship,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told NatSec Daily during a Monday news briefing. Elgindy and others aren’t confident Biden or his aides will speak forcefully on the peace process. For one, the president didn’t use the word “occupation” once during his trip to Israel and the West Bank this year, and the secretary didn’t include it in his speech. That word, used to describe the presence of Israeli authorities in Palestinian territories, was pretty standard language during previous most modern Republican and Democratic administrations. Chances are, then, that any friction will likely stay behind closed doors, said GUY ZIV, a professor at American University. “Neither leader is looking for a public fight.”
| | | | POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023. | | | | | | | | U.S. MODIFIED UKRAINE ROCKETS: The U.S. military secretly altered HIMARS rocket launchers sent to Ukraine to prevent the country from firing long-range into Russian territory, The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON and GORDON LUBOLD report . Since June, the Pentagon has given Kyiv 20 HIMARS and many satellite-guided rockets, which were equipped with software modified to prevent them from being used to strike Russia. The alteration underscores the Biden administration’s efforts to balance its support for Ukraine and its risks of escalation as the war continues. The Biden administration’s “perception is that high-end U.S. weapons being used against targets on Russian territory would be an unacceptable risk and might be potentially crossing some kind of Russian red line,” DMITRY GORENBURG, a senior research scientist at CNA, told NatSec Daily. “This is an unusual situation to start with, because usually when the U.S. provides weapons to allies, it's not in the context of an ongoing conflict with a major nuclear adversary.” REPLENISHING THE STOCKPILE: Efforts are finally ramping up to replace the weapons that the United States and its allies have shipped to Ukraine, according to top Pentagon and industry officials, our own BRYAN BENDER and LARA SELIGMAN reported Sunday . “There’s a lot of urgency,” Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH told reporters at the Reagan National Defense Forum. “Congress is sending billions of dollars to the Department of Defense, and we are turning that around and getting that on contract — I would say two to three times faster than we normally do.” She said that Ukrainians are using up tens of thousands of 155mm artillery rounds provided by the U.S. and other partners almost as soon as they arrive. By the spring, “we will be able to do 20,000 rounds a month,” she said, adding that the U.S. will get that rate up to 40,000 rounds a month in the spring of 2025. Restarting plants that make artillery, rockets, missiles and air defenses that were tailored for peacetime efficiency — rather than war-time production — is proving a massive task. Globally, arms sales increased by nearly 2 percent in 2021, international arms sales watchdog SIPRI announced Monday, citing the war in Ukraine as one of the driving factors. MISSILES BOMBARD UKRAINE: Moscow targeted multiple Ukrainian cities with missiles, including Kyiv, on Monday as Russia attempts to weaken the country’s energy supplies and infrastructure, the Associated Press’ JAMEY KEATEN reports . Explosions were reported in several parts of the country, including the cities of Odesa, Cherkasy and Kryvyi Rih. In Odesa, a missile caused power to be cut from pumping stations at a local water supply company, leaving the whole city without water. Earlier in the day, Russian media reported that a drone strike and a fuel tanker explosion occurred at two air bases in its territory, including one that houses nuclear-capable strategic bombers that have been used in strikes against Ukraine. Three people were killed in the fuel tanker explosion. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | TURM-OIL OVER PRICE CAP: Russia will prohibit the sale of its oil below the $60 cap enacted by the European Union, indicating Moscow’s intent to defy the new sanctions that began today, our own AMERICA HERNANDEZ reported Sunday . Russian Deputy Prime Minister ALEXANDER NOVAK told state media Sunday that the Kremlin is willing to dial down its oil production to compensate for lost exports and only sell to countries that do not abide by the price cap. Novak’s comments came as OPEC+ announced it would lock its current oil production levels, which would allow the group of producers to assess the market impact caused by the price cap on Russian oil, The Wall Street Journal’s MATTHEW LUXMOORE reports . The move is intended to deplete Moscow’s revenue heading into the winter.
| | | $20 MILLION STOLEN: Hackers with links to the Chinese government stole $20 million in Covid-relief benefits from the United States, NBC News’ SARAH FITZPATRICK and KIT RAMGOPAL report. The theft of money by APT41, a the Chengdu-based hacking group, “is the first instance of pandemic fraud tied to foreign, state-sponsored cybercriminals that the U.S. government has acknowledged publicly,” they wrote. “It would be crazy to think this group didn’t target all 50 states,” ROY DOTSON, national pandemic fraud recovery coordinator for the Secret Service, told NBC News. It’s unclear if the Chinese government directed the theft of the funds or just didn’t crack down on the behavior. Still, APT41’s actions indicate a new era in cybersecurity, where even federal monies aren’t safe. Read: ”NATO prepares for cyber war” — a dispatch from Estonia by our own MAGGIE MILLER
| | | GENERALS TRIED TO CASH IN: Two U.S. Air Force generals levied connections made with Azerbaijan during the height of the Afghanistan war to attempt to cash in on consulting contracts upon retirement, The Washington Post’s CRAIG WHITLOCK and NATE JONES report . During the war, the Pentagon persuaded Azerbaijani President ILHAM ALIYEV to open his country’s border and airspace to U.S. and NATO supply routes in exchange for a closer diplomatic relationship and $369 million in defense contracts to Silk Way Airlines, an Azerbaijan cargo carrier controlled by the government. Four-star generals DUNCAN McNABB and WILLIAM FRASER III oversaw those supply routes and negotiated consulting deals with Silk Way Airlines, with one of the men potentially making up to $5,000 a day, according to documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. Between 2016 and 2021, the newspaper submitted requests that should’ve turned up the documents, but Air Force officials repeatedly said they couldn’t find them or did not reply. In the vast majority of cases, the Pentagon and State Department approve requests made by former military personnel to work for foreign powers. But the requests made by McNabb and Fraser were flagged as a threat to national security and a potential embarrassment, ultimately blocking them, according to the documents. COUNTERFEIT PARTS: After a series of F-35 fighter jets deliveries were suspended because a Chinese alloy was discovered in the aircraft, military officials are prioritizing reinforcing supply chains as the U.S. prepares for long-term competition with Beijing, Defense News' STEPHEN LOSEY and JOE GOULD report. Steps have included developing new tests, reporting when concerning components are discovered and encouraging the military and defense firms to communicate about counterfeit parts they find. “The good news is there are tools coming out using artificial intelligence and open source, that we can dive in and maybe find some of these things,” said BILL LaPLANTE , undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. “But I think it’s going to be a constant issue for us … understanding our supply chain.”
| | | | JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A POLITICO DISCUSSION ON THE NEW TRAVEL EXPERIENCE : Americans are now traveling in record numbers — but the travel experience has changed drastically in recent years, not always for the better. What lessons can we learn from the pandemic and different responses around the globe? And in the face of a possible recession, what will help the travel industry remain vibrant and deliver jobs? Join POLITICO on Dec. 7 for “The Travel Experience Redefined” to discuss these questions and more. Breakfast and coffee will be provided. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– UNFUNDED AND UNHAPPY: The Pentagon’s $24 billion budget request for “unfunded priorities” has rankled Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “This latest wish list the Department provided to Congress appears to be an end-of-year money grab, designed to short circuit the administration’s budget and the congressional appropriations process,” Warren wrote to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN Monday in a letter seen first by NatSec Daily. The lawmaker is particularly upset since Austin in April said during congressional testimony that DoD’s $773 billion request was “a robust budget” that “allows us to get the capabilities that we need.” In the letter, Warren asks Austin to “significantly curtail the use and size of these lists in next year’s budget submission.” IRAN DRONES BILL OUT OF NDAA: A bill aimed at stopping Iran or Tehran-linked militias from engaging in purchases of lethal unmanned aerial vehicles won’t make it into this year’s version of the National Defense Authorization Act, a senior Republican congressional aide told NatSec Daily. The Stop Iranian Drones Act didn’t make it after talks late last week between congressional negotiators. The aide said a major sticking point was an amendment in the bill from Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) that places any Iranian group — including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — on the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list for 10 years for using a drone to kill an American citizen. The House Ways and Means Committee had balked on accepting the Cruz amendment as the Senate prepared its defense bill in October because of a “blue slip” issue about revenue. Bills that affect federal revenue must start in the House under the Constitution, and the lower chamber lodges the blue slip objection when the Senate runs afoul of that provision. Ultimately the Senate abandoned a push to pass its own defense bill and went directly to negotiations with the House on the NDAA. Related: Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) said this weekend at the Reagan National Defense Forum that a version of a semiconductor bill by Sens. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-N.Y.) and JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) will make it in the NDAA. NO REPEAL: Biden and his Pentagon chief oppose any effort to repeal the vaccine mandate for troops, the White House said Monday, setting up a fight with lawmakers who want to roll back the policy as part of the upcoming defense policy bill, Lara reports . “The president agrees with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that the Pentagon should continue to require all service members be vaccinated and boosted against Covid-19,” NSC spokesperson Kirby said at a briefing Monday in response to a question from NatSec Daily. "He continues to believe that all Americans, including those in the armed forces, should be vaccinated and boosted for Covid-19.” Kirby’s comments come as members of Congress consider repealing the controversial policy as part of the defense policy bill, which is set to be unveiled this week. Another possibility is that lawmakers keep the requirement to get the shot but undo the Pentagon’s policy of kicking out service members who refuse the vaccine. Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), the House Armed Services Committee chair, said a rollback of the policy is on the table for a compromise version of the NDAA, but hasn’t been decided yet. “I was a very strong supporter of the vaccine mandate when we did it, a very strong supporter of the Covid restrictions put in place by DoD and others,” he told Bryan and CONNOR O’BRIEN Saturday during the Reagan Forum. “But at this point in time, does it make sense to have that policy from August 2021? That is a discussion that I am open to and that we’re having.”
| | | NO GUARANTEES: Ukraine is unhappy with French President EMMANUEL MACRON for suggesting Russia must be given security guarantees in exchange for peace talks for an end to the war. “One of the essential points we must address — as President Putin has always said — is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia,” Macron said during a televised interview Saturday. Those comments led OLEKSIY DANILOV, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, to blast the French leader. There can’t be diplomacy as usual since there’s “Ukrainian blood on Putin’s hands,” he tweeted . Danilov said he believes that a “denuclearized and demilitarized” Russia is “the best guarantee of peace for Europe and the world.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — ROOSEVELT HOLMES is joining the White House as senior adviser for stakeholder engagement to the national cyber director. He most recently was deputy director for the Commerce Department’s Office of Business Liaison.
| | | — OLAF SCHOLZ, Foreign Affairs: The Global Zeitenwende — JEFFREY SONNENFELD and STEVEN TIAN, Fortune: Biden crowned world energy czar as diplomacy triumphs over Putin’s tantrums — ROULA KHALAF, CHRISTOPHER MILLER and BEN HALL: FT Person of the Year: VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. ‘I am more responsible than brave’
| | | — The Brookings Institution, 8:30 a.m.: "The arc of insecurity in the Horn of Africa and new breakthroughs" — International Anti-Corruption Conference, 9 a.m.: “ Uprooting Corruption, Defending Democratic Values” featuring SecState Blinken and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN — The Wilson Center, 9:00 a.m.: "Arms Control and Regional Security Oral History Project" — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10 a.m.: "ASEAN's role in the Indo-Pacific: Rethinking consensus and hedging" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “Confronting Yemen's Humanitarian and Political Crises Without a Ceasefire” — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: "Filling the Security Gap: International Approaches to Policing in Conflict" — The Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: "2022 Central Europe Week: Partners and allies in a time of war" — The Hudson Institute, 12:30 p.m.: "Australia’s Role in the China Struggle: A Conversation with SCOTT MORRISON" — The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: "Securing space: Preparing for future space contingencies" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has no problem telling us off in public. And we thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, about whom people only say nice things.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
