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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Lawrence Ukenye and Matt Berg | | 
Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's Friday announcement that Japan will double its investment in military power is a sign of how a nation can quickly adapt to changing times. | Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Connor O’Brien Change in Japan often happens slowly, then all at once. Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO’s Friday announcement that Japan will double its investment in military power is a sign of how a nation can quickly adapt to changing times. In a series of government documents, Kishida revealed that his government would double defense spending within five years and invest in counterstrike capabilities, allowing Japan to hit faraway targets with long-range missiles. Once that’s complete, Japan’s defense budget will be the third largest in the world, behind only the U.S. and China, and push the country closer to using its military as others traditionally do. The announcement is a milestone in the yearslong political effort by the prime minister's party to grow Japan’s military muscle. Former Prime Minister ABE SHINZO got the ball rolling, seeking to field an aircraft carrier, acquire advanced warplanes and boost defense spending. He faced stiff political resistance to that campaign — millions in Japan preferred the country prioritize domestic issues and lean on the United States for its security. But then the global environment changed, first with China’s rapid military modernization and buildup, North Korea’s advanced nuclear program, and then, most importantly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In June, Kishida gave a seminal speech in which he said, “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow.” The invasion, perpetrated by one of Japan’s neighbors, spooked the country. “I’ve never seen as many flags displayed as I saw of the Ukrainians ones in Tokyo when I was back in May and again in October, so clearly something was different here,” JOSHUA WALKER, president and CEO of the U.S.-based Japan Society, told NatSec Daily. The unholy trinity of threats improved the political environment for Kishida, with recent polling showing 51 percent of the Japanese public favored an increase in defense spending. “The region — indeed the world — looks far more frightening to the Japanese people,” said SHEILA SMITH, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, making the nation Kishida leads “far more accepting of a robust defense effort.” Now, with public support, the prime minister is swiftly ushering in a new era for Japan. Many expected it would take a decade for Japan to reach this point, maybe more. Little did many suspect that Russia, which has its own territorial disputes with Japan, would be the accelerant. “The need for a big leap, not a small, incremental one, is what strikes me as the most important point here,” Smith said. There are still some concerns about how Japan will pay for all this. CHRISTOPHER JOHNSTONE, the Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there’s a chance Japanese society will turn against the buildup once their taxes go up under a Kishida proposal. His fellow party members have already expressed frustration with the idea. “But fundamentally, there is a strong consensus that Japan needs to invest more in defense, and that is unlikely to change,” he said. At the heart of the announcement, though, lies something a little darker: There’s a genuine fear about the crumbling order in Asia and the world more broadly. The threats to Japan and others are real and growing, causing even the most cautious of nations to rethink their longest-standing positions. “Each and every one of us must have the awareness that we are protecting our country,” Kishida said during a Friday news conference. “We are now at a turning point of our national security policy.”
| | | U.S. ESTABLISHES ‘CHINA HOUSE’: The Biden administration just launched a house. Road “China House.” “China House” is the core of the administration’s effort to strengthen its diplomatic heft in its global rivalry with Beijing, according to plans reported by our own NAHAL TOOSI and PHELIM KINE. The State Department-based unit is designed to eliminate silos among sometimes redundant government bodies, giving U.S. officials from within State and beyond a central clearinghouse to share information and shape policy on China, State officials said in an exclusive preview. The establishment of China House reflects the sense inside President JOE BIDEN ’s team that the existing U.S. bureaucracy isn’t nimble enough to combat the multitude of challenges from communist-led China — ranging from trade to military power. GROWING THE INDUSTRIAL BASE: When asked what his goals were for the back half of Biden's first term, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN highlighted the need to invest in America's defense-industrial base, noting that the Ukraine war has exposed shortfalls in the supply chain. "This is something we have inherited over the course of decades of underinvestment, concentration, consolidation and a lot of other choices. We are not in the position we need to be in," Sullivan said at a Friday discussion at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "So that is a big area I would like to deliver against." The Pentagon has already pushed defense firms to begin replenishing artillery and rockets, including Javelin anti-tank missiles used on the battlefield in Ukraine. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with more than $19 billion in military aid since the war began and Congress’ recently-passed annual defense legislation clears the way for $800 million in security assistance for Kyiv. MORE THAN 70 MISSILES FIRED AT UKRAINE: Ukraine came under one of the biggest attacks of the war today as Moscow deployed dozens of missiles around the country, the Associated Press’ HANNA ARHIROVA, VASILISA STEPANENKO and JAMEY KEATEN report. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 of about 40 missiles that entered the capital city’s airspace, city officials said. More than 70 missiles total were fired at settlements across the country, causing power outages that the nation’s power operator said will take longer than usual to repair. The largest attack came in mid-November when Russia fired 96 missiles, a long-planned attack following Ukraine’s recapture of the city of Kherson. Today’s attack came days after the U.S. officials were finalizing plans to send a Patriot missile defense system, which Moscow’s foreign ministry warned would be a legitimate target for Russian troops. NO ‘IMMINENT’ KYIV CAMPAIGN: The Biden administration doesn’t see signs that Russia will renew its attempt to seize Ukraine’s capital soon. “We aren’t seeing an imminent move on Kyiv,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Friday in response to a question from NatSec Daily. Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNYY, the head of Ukrainian forces, told The Economist in an interview published Thursday that Russia might move on Kyiv as soon as January, igniting fears of a soon-to-come assault. The assessments come as both the U.S. and Ukraine deal with a troubling reality: Russia’s military mobilization might be proving effective. “The draft has enabled Russia to mitigate troop shortages at the front,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s MAXIM SAMORUKOV wrote in Foreign Policy on Thursday, citing the gains in Bakhmut and orderly withdrawal of forces from Kherson. “If the arrival of a few tens of thousands of mobilized troops was enough to achieve that, then what would another million troops do?” he wrote. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Lithuanian Prime Minister INGRIDA ŠIMONYTĖ, who we interviewed 10 days ago about the war in Ukraine. We saved our last question for the most important one: What do you drink when you’re off the clock? “Times are so tense that alcohol does not seem something that relaxes,” she said after 30 minutes of conversations about brutal fighting and European politicking. Totally fair, though she did reveal a morning ritual. “I have to have half an hour for my morning coffee every day, whatever happens, even if that means that I have to wake up at 4:30 a.m. This is something that is a must,” she said. What does she do during those 30 minutes? She’ll peek at briefing books but mostly, like all of us, scroll on Twitter and Facebook. “This is how you sort of make your day-to-day normal.” į Sveikatą, prime minister! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | WHAT’S THAT, KIM?: North Korean leader KIM JONG UN oversaw the test of a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” for a new strategic weapon, which could allow the regime to obtain more advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S., the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reports. The missile engine test on Thursday was the first of its kind, state media reported, claiming the test provided “a sure sci-tech guarantee for the development of another new-type strategic weapon system” that could be built in the “shortest span of time.” It’s likely that North Korea is referring to a solid-fueled ICBM, which Kim promised to build while speaking at a Workers’ Party conference this year. The test comes as North Korea butts heads with the U.S. and South Korea over its joint military drills, having threatened the use of nukes and vowing to continue developing sophisticated weapons.
| | | CRYPTO TO UKRAINE: The United Nations will start sending cryptocurrency to people displaced by the war in Ukraine, The Washington Post’s PRANSHU VERMA reports. It’s intended to expedite the process in which the U.N. assists people with obtaining necessities like rent, food and heat. Instead of cash, displaced people will receive USD Coin, a “stablecoin” cryptocurrency that is pegged to the U.S. dollar. The USD coin can then be transferred at MoneyGram transfer systems worldwide. The shift to digital currency coincides with a reckoning in the crypto world. FTX, one of cryptocurrency’s leading exchanges, filed for bankruptcy in November, followed by the arrest of its former CEO, SAM BANKMAN-FRIED, on fraud charges. Bitcoin has also lost significant value, and other cryptocurrencies once thought to be stable, including TerraUSD, have collapsed this year. However, algorithmic stablecoin like TerraUSD are much more vulnerable than a fully-reserved stablecoin like USD Coin. Crypto proponents believe the move will not only expedite aid, but minimize the chances of loss or theft in transit. On the other hand, skeptics worry that the shift to cryptocurrency right now is risky and problematic because users will have to download a cryptocurrency wallet, which sometimes try to get users to buy more cryptocurrency.
| | | IT’S NOT THAT BAD: A State Department official on Thursday pushed back on the report of a growing backlog of arms deliveries to Taiwan, while acknowledging that there has been a “significant lag” between U.S. approvals and weapons deliveries, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. U.S. arms sales take years to move from deal to delivery, the official said, so having billions of dollars’ worth of deals working their way through the U.S. foreign military sales system isn’t a red flag that there are problems. But it also doesn’t mean things are working perfectly, especially as Russia and China make more aggressive moves and allies clamor for U.S. help stocking their military warehouses. “It's going to take time for industry to acclimate to this new reality, which is exacerbated by the dramatic increase in global demand,” the official told reporters, speaking on the condition of anonymity as a requirement of the briefing. “I don't think that industry really has felt this level of urgency to produce quickly since World War Two.”
| | | |   | | | | | | SENATE SENDS NDAA TO BIDEN: The Senate on Thursday handed Biden a compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act that proposes supersizing his Pentagon budget to $847 billion and repeals the mandate for troops to receive the Covid vaccine, our colleague CONNOR O'BRIEN reports. Biden is likely to sign the annual defense bill into law, despite the bipartisan rebuke on the vaccine mandate that he and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN continue to stand by as a matter of military readiness. The bill passed the Senate Thursday evening in a blowout 83-11 vote. (It passed 350-80 last week in the House.) The measure was delayed several days in the upper chamber as senators wrangled for votes on amendments, which needed to be knocked down to avoid punting the bill back to the House. Ultimately, the Senate rejected an even more aggressive vaccine proposal from Sens. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) and TED CRUZ (R-Texas) that would have paved the way for reinstating troops who refused to get vaccinated with back pay.
| | | LAWMAKERS BLAST FIFA: Democrats in both chambers gave FIFA a red card (sorry, sorry) for Qatar’s censorship at this year’s World Cup. “It is our understanding that team captains from several European teams competing in the World Cup intended to wear OneLove armbands as a signal of support for LGBTQ+ inclusion and diversity, but were instructed by FIFA that doing so would result in the issuance of in-game sanctions,” the 30 lawmakers wrote to FIFA President GIANNI INFANTINO, citing the threat of yellow cards to players. “These actions stand in stark contrast to FIFA’s own commitments.” Soccer’s world governing body has come under intense scrutiny for choosing repressive Qatar to host its showpiece event. Any support for LGBTQ rights has been stamped out and, in some cases, seen fans and journalists temporarily detained. Some LGBTQ fans skipped the tournament altogether for fear of what might happen to them. Among the questions the lawmakers now want to know is: Does FIFA take a country’s LGBTQ rights record into account before awarding it with a World Cup? The letter was signed by 12 senators and 18 House members.
| | | — BRITTNEY GRINER is moving back into her normal life after 10 horrific months wrongly detained in Russia. “It feels so good to be home!” Griner said in a statement. “As I transition home to enjoy the holidays with my family, I want to acknowledge and thank the entire PISA staff and medical team at the San Antonio Fort Sam Houston Base. I appreciate the time and care to make sure I was okay and equipped with the tools for this new journey,” she wrote. She plans to play in the next WNBA season and, for now, doesn’t plan to do any media interview in the near future. — CHELSEA ROBINSON is the CIA’s new press secretary. She was previously a spokesperson for the agency. — JAMES RUBIN has been appointed to the position of special envoy and coordinator of the Global Engagement Center at the State Department. He previously served as assistant secretary for public affairs at the department from 1997 to 2000.
| | | — HENRY KISSINGER, The Spectator: How to avoid another world war — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies: FDD’s Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: The Year in Review — GREG MILLER, MARY ILYUSHINA, CATHERINE BELTON, ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN and PAUL SONNE, The Washington Post: ‘Wiped out’: War in Ukraine has decimated a once feared Russian brigade
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Strategic blind spots? Advancing the Women, Peace and Security Agenda in US national security strategies — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Strengthening the US-Japan Alliance: A Conversation with Senator BILL HAGERTY — The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: The Kennedy Withdrawal: Camelot and the American Commitment to Vietnam Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who says any significant boost in our salaries will take at least a decade, not a year, regardless of the financial threats we face. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who makes us richer with her presence.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
