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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Connor O’Brien , Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
One of the marquee fights may be the NDAA’s repeal of the Pentagon’s vaccine mandate, which requires troops to get the Covid shot or be forced out of the military. That rollback is a big win for Republicans who pushed to kill the policy, including presumptive Speaker-to-be Kevin McCarthy. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Paul McLeary Don’t look now, but Congress is on the verge of delivering yet another bipartisan smackdown of President JOE BIDEN's military spending plans. After weeks of haggling, the House is set to vote later today to pass a compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act that endorses a significantly bigger defense budget than Biden sought and takes a red pen to some of his signature plans. The NDAA clocks in at $858 billion in total — including $847 billion for the Pentagon and nuclear weapons research — a whopping $45 billion more than Biden requested. That’s similar to the amount the Senate Armed Services Committee approved in its version of the bill in June. Lawmakers are using that larger price tag to dedicate billions to building more Navy ships and buying more aircraft. They also touted putting $19 billion toward defraying the effects on high inflation. (We’ll note here that the NDAA only authorizes spending. And while it's a strong signal of bipartisan support for more DoD spending, that boost won’t become a reality until Congress passes a full-year appropriations bill.) One of the marquee fights may be the NDAA’s repeal of the Pentagon’s vaccine mandate, which requires troops to get the Covid shot or be forced out of the military. That rollback is a big win for Republicans who pushed to kill the policy, including House GOP leader and presumptive Speaker-to-be KEVIN McCARTHY. Some GOP senators even threatened to stall the must-pass bill without the change. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a House Armed Services Committee member, called the bill “a victory for the country” because it helps tackle threats posed by China and Russia. “It is also a victory for Kevin McCarthy with the removal of [the] vaccine mandate," Bacon told NatSec Daily. Biden is in a tough spot on the vaccine mandate clawback — though it doesn’t go as far as some in the GOP wanted by reinstating troops and giving them back pay. The White House hasn’t signaled that he’d veto the must-pass defense bill and risk breaking a 61-year streak of the bill becoming law each year. But he and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN both back the mandate, and officials have doubled down on it. "Republicans in Congress have obviously decided that they’d rather fight against the health and well-being of those troops, rather than protecting them," White House National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today in response to a question from NatSec Daily. "So we still believe it’s a mistake." Appearing before the House Rules Committee today to talk about the defense package, HASC Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) said Austin’s mandate, issued in August 2021, was "absolutely the right policy" to combat Covid in the ranks, but said times have changed. “Is it still the right policy? We don't believe that it is and I don't believe that it is,” Smith said. The bill also scrambles Biden’s plans to cancel a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile, first proposed by the Trump administration. And it puts limits on another nuclear target of Biden’s: retiring an aging inventory of B83 nuclear gravity bombs. Having secured a defense boost, killed the vaccine mandate and knocked down potential add-ons such as cannabis banking and energy permitting legislation, top Republicans are leaving little doubt that they think they did pretty well in the final bill. "Just as Republicans insisted, just as our service members deserve, this NDAA is not getting dragged down by unrelated liberal nonsense," Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL said today. Still, Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.), also a HASC member, thinks the bill has more pros than cons. “With Republicans taking control of the House next Congress, this year’s NDAA serves as an excellent roadmap for how to take care of service members, maintain U.S. global leadership and protect Americans at home and abroad,” he told NatSec Daily. Read Connor’s full rundown of what’s in the NDAA (for Pros!).
| | | | POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023. | | | | | | | | GERMAN TERRORIST PLOT FOILED: While we were sleeping, German police arrested 25 people from a far-right group on suspicion of plotting to overthrow the government after unprecedented state-wide raids Wednesday morning, per POLITICO’s WILHELMINE PREUSSEN . “The defendants belong to a terrorist organization founded no later than the end of November 2021, which has set itself the goal of overcoming the existing state order in Germany and replacing it with its own form of state,” a statement from the German attorney general reads. Special units of the German police have searched more than 130 homes, offices and warehouses, as well as sites of the Special Forces Command in 11 German states. Who was involved in the plot? Members of the extremist Reichsbürger movement, which wants to replace Germany’s democratic system with an authoritarian one; an active member of the German army’s elite unit Special Forces Command; a former German MP from the far-right Alternative for Germany party; and HEINRICH XIII P. R. , a member of a minor German noble family. “This attempt at replicating Jan. 6 in Germany strikes me as pretty amateurish,” said CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER, director of the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. “What is concerning is the revelation of extensive, networked planning that involved current members of elite armed forces units, as well as outreach to Russia.” UKRAINE CASH: There’s more than $3 billion left in NATO’s now-frozen Afghanistan Army Trust Fund account that is slated to be returned to donor nations, and some of those countries have decided to pump that cash right into aid for Ukraine, our own ERIN BANCO and PAUL McLEARY scoop . The Ukrainian government could really use that cash to continue the war through the winter, and as the alliance returns the funds to donors. “The push to reallocate the Afghan funds appears mostly uncontroversial within the alliance, but comes as individual countries face increasing tension at home about how much funding to provide to Ukraine — especially as high inflation and rising energy costs, especially in Europe, raise worries about a looming recession,” the duo write. So far The Netherlands has moved that Afghan money into the Ukraine fund, which has over $100 million in its coffers for non-lethal assistance like generations, medical equipment, winter gear and counter-drone systems, with more pledges expected in the coming weeks. U.S. HAD NO PART IN UKRAINE DRONE STRIKES: The U.S. did not encourage or enable Ukraine to carry out its drone attacks against Russia in the past couple days, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY both said in separate news conferences. "We have not encouraged, nor have we enabled Ukraine to strike into Russia,” Kirby told reporters on Wednesday. In Australia, Blinken made an almost identical statement to reporters yesterday, underscoring the U.S. desire to not get involved in attacks on Russian territory. Both comments follow a report earlier this week that the U.S. altered hardware and software in HIMARS sent to Ukraine, ensuring that missiles launched cannot be sent into Russian territory. That news broke the same day that Ukraine struck two military bases deep into Russia, marking the country’s most brazen offensive yet. TIME PERSON OF THE YEAR: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has been named Time Person of the Year for his efforts to lead the country against the Russian invasion. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | U.S. AND KURDS TO RESUME GROUND OPERATIONS: The Pentagon is preparing to resume full ground operations with Kurdish partners in northern Syria, a move that could further strain relations with Turkey, The Washington Post’s DAN LAMOTHE and LOUISA LOVELUCK reported Tuesday evening . Turkey has threatened a ground invasion into Syria in recent weeks, following its condemnation of the Syrian Democratic Forces in the area for a deadly bombing in Istanbul last month. The group’s leadership has denied involvement. CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS told his Turkish counterpart that strikes in Syria endanger U.S. troops, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reports . It’s possible that Turkey could follow through with its ground invasion this month, three U.S. officials told the Post, risking the safety of American troops stationed there. The partnership between the SDF and U.S. troops has been key in keeping the Islamic State at bay, but operations against the terrorist group have been limited due to Turkey’s ongoing offensive in the area.
| | | CYBERWEAPONS TO AFRICA?: Companies are racing to sell cyberweapons , including devices that can track locations and monitor phone calls, to repressive governments in African countries. ERIC LEANDRI, founder of the search engine Qwant, offered similar tools to governments in Benin, Chad, Cameroon, Comoros, Gabon and the Republic of Congo, according to internal documents seen by POLITICO. Documents also reveal that Altrnativ, Leandri's new company, was expected to profit substantially from the potential sales to African countries. While it's unclear whether the countries accepted these tools, the efforts by companies could make it increasingly difficult to track where weapons are being sold as the capabilities are often part of larger packages portrayed as ways to improve technology within the continent.
| | | ‘MAGIC’ IN THE NDAA: Language in the compromise defense policy bill would grant more predictability for the supply chain to restock munitions used in Ukraine, Army acquisition chief DOUG BUSH believes. “The magic of a multiyear is it guarantees a lower price,” he told our own LEE HUDSON. The compromise version of the NDAA would grant multiyear procurement authority for specific munitions. The House will vote on the bill today, with the Senate to follow. This is the first time Congress is granting multiyear contracting authority, a vehicle the Pentagon uses for aircraft and ship programs to save money and ensure a steady production flow. The bill includes the authority for 17 munitions ranging from 155mm rounds to AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today . | | | | | | | | HPSCI DEMS ASK FOR TWITTER INFO: Three House Intelligence Committee Democrats wrote to Twitter CEO ELON MUSK asking if China possibly suppressed information about internal protests on the social media site. “Numerous Chinese-language accounts and bots spammed Twitter with links to escort services alongside city names in what researchers believe was an effort to suppress news regarding the widespread protests,” Reps. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.), RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) and JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.) wrote in their Dec. 6 letter. They also said the Chinese Communist Party scrubbed video evidence of confrontations between demonstrators and authorities from the internet. The lawmakers want to know if Twitter has “any evidence” that the Chinese government ordered the suppression. They want Musk to respond to questions by Dec. 31. WAR POWERS: Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) is set to bring a Yemen war powers resolution to the floor as soon as next week, and he’s already got support from more than 100 national antiwar and progressive organizations who sent a letter arguing for the end of U.S. support to the Saudi-led coalition. A bipartisan Yemen war powers resolution made it to President DONALD TRUMP’s desk in 2019, but the former leader vetoed it. Sanders thinks he has the votes again this time around, mainly because lawmakers in both parties have signaled waning support for continued U.S. military support to Saudi Arabia. Biden ended U.S. offensive support for the war, but his administration continues to assist the Saudi-led coalition to defend itself against attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Any end to U.S. logistical support to the Royal Saudi Air Force might complicate that effort, so it’s possible Biden, too, would veto such a resolution if it got to him. An aide for Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) told us the senator would support the measure.
| | | ‘I’LL NEVER BE COMFORTABLE’: Gen. DAVID BERGER, the Marine Corps Commandant, said he'll never be certain that the U.S. is moving quickly enough to help Taiwan defend itself against an invasion by China. “Are we moving fast enough? You're always going to get a no from me because I want us to move faster. Why? Because you never know when the other side's going to move. So if I said I'm comfortable with the way things are going, then you might believe I know exactly when the Chinese might move,” he told a group of reporters Wednesday morning, per an automated transcript the Marine Corps shared with us (NatSec Daily was not at the event). “I'm very confident we're headed in the right direction. But if you're asking me ‘Are you comfortable?’ No, I'm not. I'll never be comfortable because I don't know when they might make a decision." Asked about Berger’s remarks, Lt. Col. MARTIN MEINERS, a Pentagon spokesperson, told us that “the U.S. will continue to work with industry to provide Taiwan defense equipment as fast as possible.” “The Department will continue to look for ways to accelerate delivery of capabilities for all our partners, based on the urgency of the threat,” he continued. Maj. JOSHUA LARSON, a spokesperson in the commandant’s office, said “Gen. Berger's general attitude he was trying to get across was that, as a service chief, it's his job to never be comfortable with where we're at now." Per the Pentagon, the executive branch has notified Congress of more than $35 billion in foreign military sales to Taiwan since 2010. And since 2017, the executive branch has notified Congress over almost $2.5 billion in direct commercial sales to the democratic island. Berger’s concern for Taiwan’s safety is shared by Democrats and Republicans on the Hill. The compromise NDAA features an amendment by Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) that would establish a defense-modernization program for Taiwan to the tune of $10 billion in security assistance over the next five years. And Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) on Tuesday sent a letter to SecState Blinken urging him to prioritize the defense of Taiwan, not Ukraine.
| | | |   | | | | | | — The Asia Group has added KEVIN BASSNEY and BRETT FETTERLY as vice presidents in the China practice. Bassney previously was chief of staff to the CEO of People.ai. Fetterly previously was national security adviser to Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.).
| | | — JEFF SCHOGOL, Task & Purpose: “Land, load ‘em, go” — How Army helicopter crews risked their lives to save 10,000 during Afghanistan evacuation — LIANA FIX and MICHAEL KIMMAGE, Foreign Affairs: Go Slow on Crimea — ANNA NEMTSOVA, The Atlantic: “ I Just Wanted the Whole Thing to Be Over ”
| | | — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia, 8 a.m.: Air Force IT Day 2022 forum — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: The Impact of Domestic Politics on the US-Taiwan-PRC Relationship — The Aspen Institute's Strategy Group and Security Forum, 9 a.m.: 2022 Aspen Security Forum D.C Edition — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10 a.m.: A Conversation with His Excellency SANTIAGO CABANAS, Ambassador of Spain to the US — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: The History and Future of U.S. Sanctions Policy: What the Evolution of U.S. Sanctions Can Tell Us About Promoting Peace in Ukraine and Beyond — The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 10 a.m.: Unpacking the Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 10:30 a.m.: The Road Ahead: U.S.-Pakistan Relations and Regional Dynamics in 2023 — The Cato Institute, 12 p.m.: How Much Does China Really Spend on Defense? — The Wilson Center, 12:30 p.m.: U.S.-Korea Relations: Retrospective on the Jeju April 3 Incident, Human Rights, and Alliance — Defense One, 1 p.m.: Outlook 2023 — Columbia University, 1:30 p.m.: A Conversation with The Honorable CARLOS DEL TORO, Sec. of the Navy — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: Understanding the Broader Transatlantic Security Implications of Greater Sino-Russian Military Alignment — The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 3 p.m.: A Conversation with Sen. DAN SULLIVAN (R-AK): Standing Up to China Means Standing with Taiwan Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who considers her edits for this newsletter “a victory for the country.” And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is always a winner.
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