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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Some senior Democrats that NatSec Daily spoke to suspect developments in Ukraine this year could hurt Biden, not help him, in his likely reelection campaign. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | With help from Zi-Ann Lum and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt President JOE BIDEN is facing two oncoming trains. The first, a war in Ukraine that the decision to send Abrams tanks signals will last at least another year. The second, a very likely reelection campaign where he’ll suffer repeated attacks about his hyperfocus on eastern Europe and not, say, the southern border. Alex, alongside colleagues JONATHAN LEMIRE and ELI STOKOLS, touched upon Biden’s bumpy future this morning. NatSec Daily wanted to dig a little deeper on how Ukraine might play into Biden’s bid for a second term. Simply put, positions are already forming — and they may not favor the president. Republicans remain in search of a unified Ukraine message ahead of what portends to be a nasty primary cycle. "There's going to be a knife fight in the GOP to decide what we think, and that determines how Biden will posture and be postured toward,” said a senior congressional Republican aide. Of course, the war likely won’t be top of mind for party leaders and voters — unless something catastrophic happens. Immigration, investigations into Biden’s family, the debt ceiling and cutting government spending will dominate internal GOP discussions for the time being. But a poll this month showed that a slight majority of Republicans, 52 percent to 48 percent, want their congressional representative to oppose more funding for Ukraine. Support for a prolonged European battle, then, could be a wedge issue between the internationalist and populist camps vying for the nomination — and ultimately the Oval Office. Meanwhile, some senior Democrats that NatSec Daily spoke to suspect developments in Ukraine this year could hurt Biden, not help him. Should Russia make gains, or Ukraine fail to advance further by the fall, worry will creep in that voters will question why the administration spent so much money, weapons and time on propping Kyiv up at all. All the talk of standing up for democracy against autocrats will mean little if Ukraine is on the back foot while Russia gains strength. Such a scenario would provide a wide opening for any Republican to walk through. For now, the Biden administration is operating like it won’t let politics dictate how to manage alliances up close and the war from afar. Things like polling and crafting a winning campaign message on Ukraine are purposefully kept away from senior NSC officials. Their MO right now, per a senior administration official, is that "the ultimate political mistake would be if bad decisions were made.” That official, like others, spoke to NatSec Daily on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues. Outside the West Wing, many Democrats are giddily preparing for the coming political tussle. “If the GOP wants to make caving to autocrats their message to voters in 2024, that’s their choice,” said a senior Democratic congressional staffer. They’re optimistic not only because of what they perceive as a strong message, but also a general truth about the voting public: Foreign policy is an elite sport to which a majority of voters don’t pay close attention — even when U.S. efforts flounder. “I wish Biden would face political pressure for spending hundreds of billions of tax dollars on Ukraine's war, but I see almost no political risk for him,” said JUSTIN LOGAN of the libertarian Cato Institute. “I think this thing would have to get a lot costlier in money or the risks and costs would have to become much more apparent before anybody in Washington feels political pressure to end it.”t
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | HOW BIDEN MADE UP HIS MIND: Biden’s decision to send the coveted Abrams to Ukraine could go down as one of the most consequential decisions in the multinational effort to arm Ukraine, Alex and our colleagues in the U.S. and Europe report. Throughout talks, German officials felt the Pentagon was more reluctant than the White House on sending tanks. There was also a growing awareness within the administration that Berlin’s insistence was increasingly upsetting U.S. officials, who stressed that Washington was already supplying widespread military support and that it was Berlin’s moment to step up. Biden was initially hesitant, but he began to lean toward sending the Abrams after seeing bipartisan support for the transfer — and realizing the Germans would not budge. The U.S. could’ve sent just one tank to seal the deal, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin insisted on providing 31 M1s, the size of a full Ukrainian army battalion, because he thought it “was the right thing to do,” an official said. UKRAINE’S WISHLIST: The U.S. is planning to send Kyiv the Abrams in its more advanced M1A2 configuration, rather than the older A1 version that the military has in storage, three people with knowledge of the deliberations told our own LARA SELIGMAN, PAUL McLEARY and LEE HUDSON. However, the 31 tanks slated for Ukraine will not include the secret armor mix that makes the Army’s newest version so lethal, said the people. Still, the A2 version has more sophisticated optics and controls than the older A1 version, which the Army intends to retire in the next few years. The news comes as allies pile on support for Ukraine’s battlefield efforts. Canadian Defense Minister ANITA ANAND announced today that the country will send four of its own Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in the coming weeks, with the possibility of sending more in the future, our own ZI-ANN LUM writes in. While the tanks will give Kyiv a major military boost in its fight against Russia, Ukrainian officials know what they want next: fighter jets. Whether — or when —they’ll get them is a different question, our own CRISTINA GALLARDO reports. Washington has told Kyiv that supplying aircraft is a “no-go, for the moment,” said a northern European diplomat. Still, the administration has repeatedly drawn red lines on weapons that it has then ended up sending, like HIMARS and tanks. Conversations with several Western military officials and diplomats show that an internal debate about supplying Ukraine with jet fighters is already underway, pushed by Ukrainian officials with support from hawkish Baltic states. BIDEN TO EUROPE:Biden is planning a trip to Europe around the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Poland as a potential destination, per NBC News and CNN. If the president goes to Poland, it would put him on Ukraine’s doorstep, fueling speculation that he might take the long train ride into Kyiv. But if not, his presence will still be full of symbolism and defiance. Expect Biden to take a victory lap for rallying the West to support Ukraine against Russia and tout the now-done tank deal. But, but, but…: A NSC spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to give public comment, tells us “We don’t currently have any travel plans for the anniversary.” A trip could still happen, of course, even if there’s nothing on the books right now. NEW BASE WHO DIS: The U.S. Marine Corps officially opened its new base in Guam as the Pentagon prepares for increased Chinese aggression in the region, The Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF reports. About 5,000 Marines on the base, which is equidistant from Japan and Taiwan, will be tasked in the short term with detecting and deterring threats from China, which onlookers worry could invade Taiwan in the near future. In the long term, the base will serve as training grounds for Marines in Guam and across the Northern Mariana Islands in the event of an invasion of the Pacific islands. It’s the first new Marine base in six decades. Earlier this month, the U.S. announced that it will station an upgraded Marine Corps unit with the ability to fire anti-ship missiles in Okinawa, also in an effort to deter China. IT’S THURSDAY:Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | DEADLY ISRAELI ATTACK: A major Israeli raid on the West Bank city of Jenin killed nine Palestinians in a lengthy shootout today, The Washington Post’s SUFIAN TAHA, VICTORIA BISSET and MIRIAM BERGER report. The “counterterrorism operation” against Islamic Jihad militants who had been involved in attacks on Israelis, as the Israel Defense Forces described, left widespread destruction. Two of the people killed were civilians, and 20 others were injured. Israeli operations in the West Bank happen almost daily, but the scale of Thursday’s battle was unusual. One resident described the scene as the worst fighting he had seen in the area in 20 years, telling WaPo that soldiers “were shooting at anything that moved. They destroyed roads and cars, even water tanks.” MISSILES HIT UKRAINE: Russia launched dozens of missiles across Ukraine early Thursday morning, killing one person, the Associated Press’ HANNA ARHIROVA reports. Forty-seven of the 55 missiles shot by Russia were intercepted, according to VALERII ZALUZHNYI, commander of Ukraine’s armed forces. Self-exploding drones were also launched overnight before the missiles, in what is believed to be an attempt to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense systems. WAGNER’S GRAVEYARD: A vast graveyard on the border of a small farming community in southern Russia is providing a glimpse into the makeup of the Wagner Group’s forces, which have been instrumental in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in recent months. Reuters’ journalists identified more than three dozen people buried in the gravesite. Many of those recruited by the paramilitary group’s chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN are prisoners who, if they survived a six-month contract, Prigozhin promised to pardon. Among the ranks were a contract killer, murderers and career criminals.
| | | TIKTOK ON THE OFFENSE: Lawmakers in Washington for months have been increasingly sounding the alarm that TikTok is a threat to national security. Now, the social media platform is taking its fight head on. “We have shifted our approach,” ERICH ANDERSEN, general counsel of ByteDance, the Chinese owner of TikTok, told The New York Times’ CECILIA KANG, SAPNA MAHESHWARI and DAVID MCCABE. The company had mostly kept its head down as it participated in talks with the interagency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, , but the government has paused negotiations, he said. In recent weeks, the company’s lobbyists have walked into the offices of lawmakers who have introduced bills to ban the app, trying to assuage their concerns. Last week, TikTok’s chief executive SHOU ZI CHEW met with think tanks and public interest groups to detail plans to ensure data privacy. The new push to ease Washington’s worries comes weeks after Biden approved a TikTok ban on government devices. Similar precautions are being pushed internationally, as public authorities in the Netherlands are being told to steer clear of using the app, two government officials told our own PIETER HAECK. DOJ DISRUPTS CYBER GANG:The Department of Justice announced today that it successfully disrupted ransomware operations by Hive, a cybercriminal group accused of hacking schools and hospitals, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports. The effort, part of a larger Biden administration push to counter ransomware, was the result of a court order the Justice Department received to seize the group’s back-end servers and take control of Hive’s website, Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND announced at a press conference. Hive has routinely targeted hospitals and has captured patient information, forcing hospitals to pay a ransom to decrypt patient health data.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | INTEL SATELLITE: Japan launched an intelligence-gathering satellite today that will allow for closer monitoring of North Korean missile efforts and natural disaster responses, the Associated Press' MARI YAMAGUCHI reports. The IGS program was created after a North Korean missile flyover in the 1980s, with the latest version able to capture images 24 hours a day in severe weather conditions. The launch is another step in Tokyo’s effort to grow its military capabilities to counter China and an increasingly aggressive North Korea. In December, Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO announced plans to double the country’s military spending within five years, solidifying Japan’s position as the world’s third-largest defense spender.
| | | WICKER’S WISHES: New Senate Armed Services Committee ranking Republican ROGER WICKER made the case today for continuing aid to Ukraine and ratcheting up the weapons the U.S. provides, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes. In a Senate floor speech this afternoon, the Mississippi Republican advocated for providing new systems, including longer-range artillery and armed drones. "The United States has made a huge difference in this war, and we can now tip the balance in favor of Ukraine if we take the right steps," Wicker said. "I would sum up this policy of the right steps in three words: more, better, and faster. More ground vehicles and munitions. Better equipment. Faster deliveries." "We need to give Ukraine ATACMS, long range missiles, and advanced drones like the Grey Eagle and Reaper. We should deliver those assets quickly to make an immediate difference on the battlefield," Wicker said.
| | | SLOW-WALKING:Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) intends to block all of President Biden's nominees until Congress reviews all classified documents found at his and former President DONALD TRUMP's residence, our own BURGESS EVERETT and NICHOLAS WU report. After participating in a briefing with director of national intelligence AVRIL HAINES, Cotton said he and other senators planned to "impose pain" on the administration until they provide the documents. Democrats including Sens. DICK DURBIN (Ill.) and MARK WARNER (Va.) have also expressed unease about the documents and the administration’s lack of transparency. The threats risk worsening the backlog of nominees awaiting Senate confirmation, with some Republicans already slow-walking Biden's DoD picks in response to the U.S.'s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: AVERY MULLIGAN has joined the Biden administration as senior adviser for public affairs at CISA, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was press secretary for Sen. TOM CARPER (D-Del.). — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SEAN BARTLETT is leaving the State Department, where he has served as senior adviser in the office of the spokesperson in the Bureau of Global Public Affairs, Lippman has also learned. He is headed to the Export-Import Bank of the U.S. as SVP of communications. — KIM JOINER is now strategic adviser for personnel strategy at professional services firm Serco. She most recently was VP for strategic partnerships at TeamWorx Security and is a DoD alum.
| | | — CHUCK ROSENBERG, POLITICO: Don’t Blame the Government for Our Leaders Mishandling Documents — MIKHAIL ZYGAR, The New York Times: The Man Who May Challenge Putin for Power — Ret. Gen. JAMES AMOS, Ret. Gen. TERRENCE DAKE and Ret. Lt. Gen. BARRY KNUTSON, Defense News: Unwise divestments are crippling U.S. Marine Corps aviation
| | | — The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 8 a.m.: 2023 SciTech Forum — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Transatlantic Tech and Security: A Conversation with E.U. Commissioner THIERRY BRETON — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: The near crisis project: Why what you don’t know can hurt you — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Military history for the modern strategist: America’s major wars since 1861 — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.: The Paris Peace Accords: Lessons for Today? Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always starts a “knife fight” during the editing process. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who brings a production gun to that knife fight.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
