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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
“Unfortunately I left the administration’s briefing with more questions than when I went in,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said in a statement. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt After almost a week of Chinese spy balloon drama, we’re finally getting some juicy details from officials — but there’s still much lying beneath the (ocean) surface. Thursday kicked off with a State Department official telling reporters the aircraft that hovered over the U.S. last week “was capable of conducting signals intelligence collection operations.” The balloon had “multiple antennas to include an array likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications.” State made that determination based on images taken by U-2 spy planes of the balloon during flybys. The Biden administration will now “explore” punitive measures for the Chinese entities involved in the People’s Liberation Army’s surveillance program, per the official. In a briefing hours later, FBI officials said it's too early for them to determine much from the wreckage of the device. So far, the U.S. has only collected fragments of the balloon, including the canopy, wiring and some electronics. The rest is at the "ocean bottom" and will take a long time to recover due to weather. "We're only seeing a very small portion of the balloon’s payload at this point," one of the officials said. "We have literally not seen the payload, which is where we would expect to see the lion's share of the electronics." The FBI also noted that at this point they don’t have enough information to know who manufactured the aircraft’s parts. But in a classified briefing, members of Congress were told the balloon did have Western-made parts with English words written on them, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News. A Democratic senator, who asked not to be named for discussing the contents of a classified briefing, said the lawmakers got more “details on intelligence collected” than the administration has publicly revealed. Some, including Republican Sen. STEVE DAINES of Montana (where the public first spotted the balloon), were unimpressed with what they learned. “Unfortunately I left the administration’s briefing with more questions than when I went in,” he said in a statement. Asked why the senator was so unsatisfied, his spokesperson RACHEL DUMKE told NatSec Daily that “the senator did not get all his questions answered.” As the FBI briefed, the House passed a resolution from Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) to condemn China’s unwelcome overflight in a 419-0 vote — a remarkable show of bipartisanship in a polarized Congress. That bipartisanship extended to criticizing the administration’s response to the balloon hubbub. In the Senate, Republicans and Democrats on the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hauled in senior Pentagon officials and let loose their frustrations. “As an Alaskan, I am so angry. I want to use other words. But I’m not going to,” said Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska). Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii), said he understands “the need to keep some of this classified,” but believes the administration might not want to disclose “things that might be inconvenient politically for the department.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | NORTH KOREA’S MESSAGE: In just one parade, North Korea displayed enough intercontinental ballistic missiles to overwhelm America’s expensive defenses against them, Alex reported Wednesday night. Images from state-run media showed the nation’s military rolling 10 to 12 Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles down the streets of Pyongyang. The U.S. only has 44 ground-based interceptors to launch from Alaska and California, which can destroy an oncoming ICBM in flight. Assuming North Korea’s weapons can fit four warheads atop them, it’s possible Pyongyang can fire more warheads at the U.S. than America has interceptors. The message from North Korean leader KIM JONG UN was clear: Despite repeated efforts, the U.S. can’t stop Pyongyang. It was a defiant display that both underscored the nation’s stunning military advancement and Western failures to get the ruling family to part with its weapons. “It punches a hole in 20-plus years of U.S. homeland missile defense policy predicated on defending against a ‘limited’ missile threat from North Korea. That threat is no longer limited,” said ANKIT PANDA, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ZELENSKYY’S JET PUSH: In Brussels, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY expressed optimism to lawmakers about receiving fighter jets and said he’ll meet with leaders to discuss the topic, our own LILI BAYER reports. "I've heard about the readiness to give us the necessary weapons and support, including the aircrafts,” Zelenskyy said. “And I will have a number of bilaterals now, and we are going to raise the issue of the fighter jets and other aircrafts." The comment comes a day after the surprise Zelenskyy visit to London, where he stressed Ukraine’s need for the jets. It apparently paid off, with British officials saying they’re actively looking into sending the fighters, and Zelenskyy said progress was also made on talks about long-range missiles and the training of our pilots. “There are certain agreements which are not public but are positive,” Zelenskyy said. “When these items will happen ... our state will know this, but I don't want to prepare the Russian Federation." U.N. AID IN SYRIA: A United Nations aid convoy crossed into a rebel-held region of northwest Syria through Turkey for the first time since two earthquakes leveled the region on Monday, The Washington Post reports. Tens of thousands of rescuers from around the world have traveled to Turkey, but aid to Syria has been delayed because of the war-torn area, which has been split into areas of government and opposition control with a decimated health care system due to fighting. “In nearly every emergency, communities themselves are their own first responders. In northwest Syria, Syrians are entirely on their own,” KIEREN BARNES, country director of Syria for Mercy Corps Country, said in a statement. “They feel forgotten and abandoned by the world after 10 years of war, and fear this will be no different.” PRISONERS RELEASED: Nicaragua has released more than 200 political prisoners, all of whom have been flown to the United States, the Biden administration announced Thursday. The prisoners, many of them political and business leaders, journalists and students detained by Nicaraguan President DANIEL ORTEGA, arrived Thursday at Dulles International Airport in Virginia, the State Department said in a statement. One of them is a U.S. citizen. Relations between the U.S. and Nicaragua have been strained due to the arrests by Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo. In 2021, Ortega and Murillo detained several political opponents and prevented opposition parties from participating in the country’s election. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | ‘A CROWDED FIELD’: Among likely GOP candidates, natsec is expected to be an unusually popular topic in the campaign cycle, multiple people preparing for primaries told NatSec Daily. “It’s going to be a crowded field of national security-minded candidates,” an aide to a GOP nominee hopeful told NatSec Daily. That’s in large part because Russia will be at war with Ukraine and China will continue to loom large, requiring the candidates to form thoughtful opinions on the issues. But these people said the Republican debates will also focus on other areas, namely the entry of fentanyl in the U.S. and immigration. One person added food security and trade will matter to earlier-voting states like Iowa. All spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal thinking about the election. Of course, the big question is how to tackle Trump and his foreign policy, which most in the field said produced some wins but was anathema to Republican orthodoxy. How to take him on, especially when many of the prospective candidates worked for him and are far more hawkish? JOHN BOLTON, Trump’s former national security adviser, who’s weighing a run himself, said a “Reaganite foreign policy is still the overwhelming view” within the party. Voters, he continued, believe “ultimately good policy is good politics. I think I could be the person to talk about it.” Trump, after all, “doesn’t have views. Trump has Trump. He has neuron flashes,” Bolton said. “That’s one reason that I’m considering getting in.” Bolton noted, however, that he has plenty of time to officially throw his hat in the ring. In the meantime, groups are already forming to advise candidates on national security. The Forum for American Leadership has already created 14 working groups to mirror the directorates of the National Security Council. Those groups will aim to brief candidates throughout the campaign. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 is also seeking to build a database of vetted people to hand over to a transition. “We think of it as conservative LinkedIn,” said PAUL DANS, the project’s director. There will also be a book filled with policy positions to come out in April and a collection of executive orders to roll out as early as day one. Safe to say, as the staffer for the potential GOP candidate told us, “these conversations are going to be shaping, and they matter.”
| | | U.S., U.K. SANCTION RUSSIAN CYBERGANG: The United States and the United Kingdom on Thursday jointly sanctioned seven Russian government-linked hackers who were linked to ransomware attacks against critical infrastructure in the U.S., U.K. and Ukraine, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports. Those sanctioned were alleged to be members of the Russian-based cybercriminal group Trickbot. The group was linked by IBM last year to cyberattacks in 2022 tied to the war aimed at both the Ukrainian government and private sector groups and, according to the Treasury Department, have also allegedly targeted the U.S. government and U.S. companies. “The United States and the U.K. are leaders in the global fight against cybercrime and are committed to using all available tools to defend against cyber threats,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said in a statement Thursday.
| | | WHITMER’S ASK OF BIDEN: Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER has a “big ask” of President JOE BIDEN while she’s in Washington, D.C., this week: to invest in a fighter mission at Selfridge Air National Guard base in Macomb County, Michigan. The governor will also speak to Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL about the potential investment, Whitmer’s office told NatSec Daily. Whitmer has long been pushing to host a fighter mission at the base in her state. Michigan’s representatives in Washington are also in support. This month, they sent a letter to Kendall urging him to replace the A-10s stationed at Selfridge with more advanced jets. Whitmer has claimed that the move “would significantly reduce the cost to the Air Force by almost $100 million.”
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | WHY HAWLEY OFF SASC?: There’s a bit of intrigue surrounding why Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) is no longer on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Roll Call’s MARK SATTER reported Wednesday night that Hawley was booted for holding up DoD nominee confirmations and for challenging MITCH McCONNELL’s leadership of Senate Republicans. Both senators and their teams deny the reporting, saying that Hawley voluntarily gave up his seat. Our own BURGESS EVERETT reported a backstory that supports what Hawley and McConnell say. Newly elected Sen. ERIC SCHMITT (R-Mo.) sought to serve on the Judiciary Committee alongside Hawley, requiring him to get a waiver because rules are that both members from a state can’t be on a top committee together. Schmitt didn’t get the waiver, so Hawley stepped down from SASC so Schmitt could serve on that panel and avoid another waiver fight. A number of Hill aides NatSec Daily spoke with said that the Hawley/McConnell explanation, and what Burgess reported, is what happened.
| | | WASN’T ME: Biden shifted some blame for his classified document drama to the people who packed his offices when asked about the discovery of those classified materials, our own OLIVIA OLANDER reported late Wednesday. “What was not done well is, as they packed up my offices to move them, they didn’t do the kind of job that should’ve been done, to go thoroughly through every piece of literature that’s there,” Biden told JUDY WOODRUFF on PBS’ “NewsHour.” He didn’t give any additional specifics about the packing of the material in question. That’s not surprising, given the president has been tight-lipped about the materials taken from his personal office and homes, citing an ongoing Justice Department investigation.
| | | |   | | | | | | –– FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: JASON HOUSER, the chief of staff at Immigration and Customs Enforcement, is preparing to depart the agency after a period of leave for family-related matters, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He is still figuring out his next step but has had overtures from the news media, immigration groups and government contracting firms. — ERIC GREEN is leaving his post as NSC director for Russia and Central Asia after a two-year tour and returning to the State Department, per a White House official. In a statement, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said Green was “absolutely central” to U.S. efforts to counter Russia after its invasion of Russia. “His insights and actions have proven pivotal time and again.” Bloomberg News was first to the story. — BARBARA SLAVIN has joined the Stimson Center as a distinguished fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program. She was previously at the Atlantic Council.
| | | — BRUCE MacDONALD, CARLA FREEMAN, and ALISON McFARLAND, U.S. Institute of Peace: China and Strategic Instability in Space: Pathways to Peace in an Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition — NICHOLAS MULDER, The New York Times: Sanctions Against Russia Ignore the Economic Challenges Facing Ukraine — AYŞEGÜL SERT, The Atlantic: Turkey’s Trust in Government Has Turned to Dust
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 8:30 a.m.: Fireside Chat with VP of the European Commission DUBRAVKA ŠUICA — The Wilson Center, 9:15 a.m.: Fostering National Security and Economic Prosperity in North America — The Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: The Role of Allies and Partners in the National Defense Strategy with Dr. CELESTE WALLANDER — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: State Threats, Illicit Finance, and Economic Security with the Rt. Hon. TOM TUGENDHAT — The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 10 a.m.: Threat or Hot Air? The Chinese Spy Balloon — The Brookings Institution, 10:30 a.m.: Geostrategic competition and US, Chinese, and Russian overseas basing — The Georgetown Institute of Women, Peace and Security, 1 p.m.: The Future of Iran’s Democracy Movement — The United States Institute of Peace, 3 p.m.: A Conversation with Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister FUAD HUSSEIN: Challenges and Opportunities for Iraq’s New Government Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who cares more about the Chinese spy balloon than us. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who is cared about by all.
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