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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Ari Hawkins | |  The current assessment in both the U.S. and Ukraine is that the flooding — which is affecting tens of thousands of people — won’t overcomplicate the long-planned operation to divert too many of Kyiv’s resources. | Libkos/AP Photo | With help from Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary and Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Alex While the collapse of a Ukrainian dam might be causing untold humanitarian and environmental harm, officials in Washington and Kyiv don’t believe it will derail the Ukrainian counteroffensive. “The front line is over 900 kilometers. Plenty of room to fight a smart war and freak out Russians,” YURI SAK, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, told NatSec Daily. “The Russians blew up the dam hoping that by doing so they will influence our military plans. It is just, as always, they've miscalculated,” he continued. (It’s still not fully proven that Moscow was responsible.) Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is more guarded in his pronouncements. “It doesn't help us with the counteroffensive, it doesn't facilitate the counteroffensive," he said in a Wednesday interview with Axel Springer, POLITICO’s parent company. "It's difficult to say what impact this will have. I can't go into detail about our counteroffensive." Still, the current assessment in both the U.S. and Ukraine is that the flooding — which is affecting tens of thousands of people — won’t overcomplicate the long-planned operation to divert too many of Kyiv’s resources. The wall of water already has washed away Russian military equipment and erased positions on the banks of the Dnipro River. Though there are still worries for Ukraine, namely floating mines and spreading disease and Russians shooting at rescuers in flooded areas, the suspected Russian effort to derail Kyiv’s military push by blasting the Kremlin-controlled dam apart from the inside is unlikely to work. “There’s a lot of flexibility built into their plans,” a senior Biden administration official said of Ukrainian forces. The dam’s destruction “should not be militarily catastrophic,” a DoD official added. Both were granted anonymity to disclose sensitive internal thinking. One reason for the confidence is the dam isn’t near where many expect the earliest stages of the counteroffensive to take place. “The Khakovka dam is at least 100 miles from where much of the activity might take place at its closest point,” the CNA think tank’s MICHAEL KOFMAN tweeted Wednesday. The initial pushes, which can be seen from space, are in Donetsk to the east and Zaporizhia to the north of the dam (Russian military bloggers are already writing about the recent deployment of Grad rockets and tanks there). “I highly doubt that any major Ukrainian thrust was planned over the Dnipro River,” said MYKOLA BIELIESKOV, a research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, which advises Zelenskyy’s office. At this point, then, military planners in Kyiv don’t need to redraw battle maps and reconfigure troop movements, even as rescue efforts are underway in southern Ukraine.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | IT WASN’T ME: Zelenskyy denies that Ukraine had any involvement in destroying Nord Stream pipelines, even though the U.S. had intelligence of a Kyiv-formed plot to do so. “I am president and I give orders accordingly,”Zelenskyy told Axel Springer in the same interview. “Nothing of the sort has been done by Ukraine. I would never act that way.” “I didn’t know anything, 100 percent,” Zelenskyy insisted. “I said, 'Show us proof. If our military is supposed to have done this, show us proof.'” It’s unclear if Zelenskyy’s denials are enough at this point. Prominent Ukraine critics, including Twitter’s TUCKER CARLSON and some 2024 Republican hopefuls, have excoriated the country following the Washington Post’s report on the intelligence. U.K. WANTS ECON HELP: British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK has a message for the United States: Help our economy. “Just as interoperability between our militaries has given us a battlefield advantage over our adversaries, greater economic interoperability will give us a crucial edge in the decades ahead,” Sunak said in a statement ahead of his Thursday visit to the White House. One thing that isn’t likely to happen is an announcement of a major U.S.-U.K. trade deal, even though previous British governments promised an agreement by 2022 and that Brexit would make a pact easier to negotiate. But here’s what they will discuss, per the Wall Street Journal’s MAX COLCHESTER and VIVIAN SALAMA: “how best to regulate artificial intelligence and support for Ukraine…Sunak is expected to advocate for U.S. trade concessions, including allowing British electric-vehicle exports to qualify for U.S. tax breaks under the Inflation Reduction Act.” Meeting with Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY on Wednesday, Sunak said one of the main things he was in Washington to discuss was “strengthening our economies.” EU FOLLOWS MACRON, NOT BIDEN: Forty-three percent of Europeans view China as a “necessary partner” — while 35 percent see Beijing as a “rival” or an “adversary” to their country, according to a report released Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations, per our own JAKOB HANKE VELA and NICOLAS CAMUT. The report, based on a poll with 16,168 respondents from 11 countries, also shows that majorities in every surveyed country want Europe to remain neutral in any conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. The comments are in line with what French President EMMANUEL MACRON told our colleagues JAMIL ANDERLINI and CLEA CAULCUTT in April. The “great risk” Europe faces is that it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours” — including Taiwan — preventing Europe from “building its strategic autonomy,” he said in comments that were condemned by GOP lawmakers in Washington. F-18 TALK HEATS UP: There’s surprisingly a lot of chatter about sending F-18s –– not a typo –– to Ukraine alongside the F-16 fighter jets that Kyiv’s forces are training on. Per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!), “dozens of old but serviceable F-18s will likely be available for export by the end of the decade, as Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Finland transition to the F-35,” though their conditions “vary widely.” The Ukrainian delegation brought it up in closed-door sessions at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last week, a Ukrainian adviser told our own PAUL McLEARY, though executing the plan is a long way away. Still, the point is there’s interest — and whispers of weapons have had a habit of turning into deliveries during this war. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and our newest member @JGedeon1.
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ‘THE GRIFT’: CHRIS CHRISTIE, having officially announced his presidential campaign on Tuesday, directly attacked former President DONALD TRUMP and his family/aides over their foreign ties. “The grift from this family is breathtaking,” he said during a New Hampshire town hall. “It’s breathtaking. JARED KUSHNER and IVANKA [TRUMP] walk out of the White House and months later get $2 billion from the Saudis?” “That’s your money he stole,” he continued. ““That makes us a banana republic.” Christie accused Kushner and the Trump administration of getting financial rewards from their coziness with Riyadh during all four years. The former New Jersey governor, who is a longshot for the Republican nomination, has a bad-blood history with Kushner that might inform his thinking. But Christie still made clear he’ll attack Trump over anything, including his handling of foreign affairs. PENCE IS IN: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE officially joined the race Tuesday with a campaign video that would get you “America Bingo” in three minutes. Yet we here at NatSec Daily noticed a few details up our alley. There was a split-second shot of Pence next to Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. After Pence said President JOE BIDEN weakened the nation, a clip of Afghans chasing after an airplane in Kabul flashed across the screen. There was also a brief image of Pence staring sternly at Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN — a clear visual contrast to his former boss. Pence, of course, will focus more on domestic issues than foreign ones during his campaign. But there are at least three signals that he’s trying to hit early: pro-Israel, strong leader, tough on Putin.
| | TAKE THEM AWAY: The U.K. will have to remove all surveillance equipment made by Chinese companies from government buildings, under a plan designed to address national security concerns related to Beijing, our own ELENI COUREA reports. Ministers offered significant concessions to hawkish U.K. conservatives in the new procurement bill — which will set rules for companies competing for government contracts — over the use of security cameras made in China. Under the proposals, the Cabinet Office will create a National Security Procurement Unit and publish a timeline for the removal of cameras produced by companies subject to China’s National Security Law — which critics say allows Chinese authorities to demand to see material — from “sensitive central government sites.” Cabinet Office Minister JEREMY QUIN said the measures would “protect our sensitive sectors from companies which could threaten national security and are a firm deterrence to hostile actors who wish to do Britain harm.” Lawmakers in the U.K. have previously called for a ban of cameras made by Hikvision and Dahua, two entities partly owned by China, over concerns that the companies products were linked to human rights abuses. The procurement bill is expected back in the British Commons on June 13.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | ‘A LOT OF FEAR’: The likely next Joint Chiefs chair argues the air-defense systems delivered to Ukraine strike “a lot of fear” in Russian pilots. The ability to move systems like Patriots to defend Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine has already proven vital, Gen. C.Q. BROWN, currently the Air Force chief of staff, told an audience at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies on Wednesday. “Because of that mobility, and being able to shoot down the one-way UAVs, shoot down the cruise missiles, but also shoot down aircraft. That actually puts a lot of fear into the Russian pilots, and they're less inclined to venture.” “That's where I see aspects of airpower playing into the counteroffensive. It keeps Russian airpower off the back of the Ukrainians and allows them to execute a bit better based on their being able to use their air defenses to their advantage," he continued. Biden nominated Brown to be his next chief military adviser in late May. The war may change by the time the Senate confirms him for the role, but these comments serve as an early peek into the general’s thinking. ENGINES FOR MODI: Washington and New Delhi are likely to strike a deal to make jet-fighter engines in India, the Wall Street Journal’s RAJESH ROY and DOUG CAMERON report. The agreement will likely be finalized when Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI comes to D.C. next month. “The planned assembly at plants in India of General Electric engines for India’s Tejas jet fighter is a key part of India’s effort to bolster its domestic defense industry and wean itself from a longstanding reliance on Russia for equipment to deter an emboldened China,” per WSJ. ‘TOXIC WORK ENVIRONMENT’: The Department of Defense released an investigation into the conduct of MICHAEL CUTRONE Wednesday, which determined the Trump-appointed former acting assistant secretary of Defense for international security affairs engaged in “repeated, recurring, unwelcome and offensive” conduct. The report comes after the DoD hotline and the office of the under secretary of Defense for policy received complaints detailing Cutrone’s allegedly abusive and demeaning behavior towards subordinates that amounted to a “toxic work environment,” per the report. Cutrone previously served as an aide to Pence.
| | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– DO THE SUPPLEMENTAL: Seventeen staunch backers of more weapons and economic aid to Ukraine are criticizing Speaker McCarthy (R-Calif.) for not supporting a Kyiv-centered supplemental to the spending bill. “We look forward to the Biden administration submitting a new supplemental funding request to Congress and urge Speaker McCarthy to lead a renewed bipartisan effort to provide Ukraine the resources it needs to ensure the success of the counteroffensive and its ultimate victory,” they said in a statement organized by Razom for Ukraine, a pro-Kyiv group. Among the signees: retired Gens. PHILIP BREEDLOVE and BEN HODGES; democracy scholars FRANCIS FUKUYAMA and TIMOTHY SNYDER; and former ambassadors MICHAEL McFAUL, STEVEN PIFER and ERIC EDELMAN. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL broke with McCarthy, saying the defense budget as agreed to in the debt deal was “simply insufficient given the major challenges that our nation faces.”
| | ‘HATE FOR HATE’S SAKE’: Defense Undersecretary for Personnel and Readiness GIL CISNEROS sounded off against anti-LGBTQ hate on Wednesday, during the office’s pride ceremony at the Pentagon, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. "Our LGBTQ-plus and other diverse communities are under attack, just because they are different. Hate for hate's sake,” Cisneros said at the ceremony. Lt. Gen. DeANNA BURT, deputy chief of space operations for operations, noted that there are more than 400 anti-LGBTQ laws introduced at the state level. “That number is rising, and demonstrates a trend that could be dangerous for service members, their families and the readiness of the force as a whole," said Burt. The pair spoke six days after the Pentagon barred drag performers from being hosted at military facilities, enforcing a longstanding policy amid intensifying pressure from Republican lawmakers. Activist groups like the ACLU are tracking hundreds of anti-LGBTQ bills that have been introduced or passed in recent years.
| | | |   | | | | | — Singapore’s longtime ambassador to the U.S., ASHOK MIRPURI, left his post last week. In an exit interview with the Washington Post’s ISHAAN THAROOR, he said he didn’t expect that the attitude toward China in Washington, D.C. to “would shift so dramatically.” — MICHAEL TURNER has founded Turner Global Solutions, consulting on China and the Indo-Pacific, and joined the Atlantic Council as a senior fellow. Most recently, he was head of communications and spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. He’s a former Navy officer and fellow in Rep. ADAM SMITH’s (D-Wash.) office.
| | | — ALBERTO ALEMANNO, POLITICO: Suspending Hungary’s EU presidency isn’t a sanction — it’s a precaution — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: China isn’t acting like it wants to improve relations with the U.S. — KAL RAUSTIALA and VIVA IEMANJÀ JERÓNIMO, Foreign Affairs: Why the U.N. still matters
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: Why Taiwan Matters — Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 8:30 a.m.: 706th Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS) — Punchbowl News, 8:30 a.m.: Pop-Up Conversation with Sen. SUSAN COLLINS — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: China’s Rising Influence in the Middle East — New America and the U.S. Agency for International Development, 9:45 a.m.: Frontiers: Global Opportunities for Strengthening Resource Security — German Marshall Fund of the U.S., 12:00 p.m.: AI Governance and Accountability Panel — Middle East Institute, 1 p.m.: Iran's Under-Developed Energy Sector, Faltering Economy, and the Looming Climate Crisis — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3 p.m.: Pivotal States: What Direction for the U.S.-India Partnership? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who “miscalculated” every time she tried to derail our writing plans. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svironovskiy, who always calculates correctly.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
