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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Ari Hawkins | |  The effort “will connect alliance defense industrial capacity more effectively to our defense planning,” NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said last week, and “also facilitate more joint procurement, help [meet] NATO’s capability targets and support allies in implementing NATO standards.” | Virginia Mayo/AP Photo | | With help from Lili Bayer and Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The NATO summit is just over two weeks away, so your friendly neighborhood NatSec Daily team thought it’d be a good idea to round up the planning tidbits that are leaking out. Put together, they paint a picture of an alliance doing more to provide Ukraine with the weapons and security guarantees it wants, but not the political tethering Kyiv craves. A consortium of allies is negotiating a way to provide Ukraine with security guarantees — falling short of NATO as a whole offering those assurances. The U.S., U.K., France and Germany would in essence formalize their military and economic support for Ukraine, keeping it flowing even after the fighting with Russia ends. However, neither a bilateral deal or multilateral agreement would have the legal force of a treaty. In effect, the four countries are considering offering more of the same for an indefinite period of time. But one issue Russia’s invasion exposed is that the West’s defense-industrial base is not as robust as once believed. So in Vilnius next month, NATO leaders are expected to sign off on a plan to produce more defensive materiel. The effort “will connect alliance defense industrial capacity more effectively to our defense planning,” NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said last week, and “also facilitate more joint procurement, help [meet] NATO’s capability targets and support allies in implementing NATO standards.” The other weapons issue hanging over the July 11-12 gathering is whether allies will start training Ukrainians on F-16 fighter jets. We have part of an answer now: Western countries are looking at Romania as a possible location for training on the warplanes, which could begin this summer. The question of which countries will donate aircraft to Ukraine remains up in the air. The Netherlands and Denmark, which are leading the multinational training effort, are most likely to provide the jets, according to one current and one former Defense Department official, but nothing is settled yet. The delivery timeline also remains up in the air, but NatSec Daily has heard from multiple Western officials that the transfers could start in early 2024. (The people we talked to about the summit are staying unnamed because of the sensitivity of the internal discussions.) Meanwhile, President JOE BIDEN is “open” to the idea of removing a series of mandatory democratic and military reforms for Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO. Stoltenberg’s once-quiet proposal, which still doesn’t have full buy-in from allies but remains a serious option, would remove a hurdle but not fully smooth out Kyiv’s accession glidepath. “We’re not going to make it easy” for Ukraine, Biden said last week, even if some Democrats and Republicans want him to. Allies are still negotiating possibly the most sensitive issue of the summit — what language to use when describing Ukraine’s membership prospects. Expect more debate over the coming days — even though everyone does agree Ukraine cannot become a member before hostilities end. The progress Ukraine has made in its counteroffensive will also contribute to the mood on the summit’s grounds. Western and U.S. officials currently don’t see much signs of progress, CNN’s JIM SCIUTTO reports, as mines, Russian missile attacks and airpower plus poor weather have hindered Kyiv’s progress. NATO insiders, meanwhile, say one of the really historic deliverables will actually be the alliance’s new regional military plans and force model, which are set to redefine how the alliance defends itself. Plus, leaders will talk about what all this will actually cost — and are expected to agree to spend at least 2 percent of economic output on defense. And while all eyes are on the alliance’s relationship with Ukraine, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN may still steal the limelight at the summit. Allies are still hoping Ankara and Budapest will sign off on Sweden’s membership bid before the summit, but the timeline is tight — and Erdoğan may keep us waiting until the very last possible moment.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | ‘MODI! MODI!’: Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI has had a fairly ideal state visit to Washington so far. During his arrival ceremony at the White House, members of the crowd could be heard chanting “Modi! Modi!” His country signed a major jet-engine and drone deal, among others, signaling the growing security partnership between the U.S. and India. And during a news conference, for which Biden and Modi were nearly an hour late, both leaders only had to answer two questions each. Modi, who rarely fields live questions, used the opportunity when asked about his nation’s democratic backsliding to claim everything was fine. “There is no democracy without human rights, freedom of press and expression. There is no discrimination in India’s democracy,” he said. Biden only gently noted a need for a shared commitment to democracy. “Indians and Americans … cherish freedom and celebrate the democratic values of universal human rights,” Biden said during a news conference, “which face challenges around the world and in each of our countries but which remain so vital to the success of each of our nations: press freedoms, religion freedom, tolerance, diversity.” The format and short time didn’t allow for further questions about jailed political opponents, the targeting of Indian Muslims or the crackdown on press freedom, including the jailing of a correspondent for the American outlet Defense News. In a call previewing the day, senior administration officials were silent on all of these issues, including reporter VIVEK RAGHUVANSHI’s detention. “A full range of issues will be on the table,” was all one of the officials could muster. Modi next heads to Capitol Hill to deliver an address to a joint session of Congress, where lawmakers want to hear him definitively say India will join the U.S. in countering China. After that, Modi heads back to the White House for the state dinner this evening. MEET THE SKEPTICS: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN will travel to Denmark this weekend to meet with officials from countries that aren’t openly opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. His appearance, per a Western official who wasn’t authorized to speak openly, is at Kyiv’s request. “Ukraine is organizing a meeting of countries to discuss basic principles of peace and Ukraine invited a variety of countries to participate. Denmark graciously agreed to host the meeting in Copenhagen,” said the official. Officials from India, Brazil and South Africa will be in attendance, per the Financial Times’ DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO and HENRY FOY, who first reported the trip. Those officials will be either fellow national security advisers or political directors for their countries. Details are still being finalized. But it’s an informal meeting, the Western official stressed, so no concrete outcomes are expected from the gathering. India is importing large amounts of Russian crude. Brazil fears the West’s hardline stance against Moscow risks a wider conflict. South Africa wants the war to end soonest because it’s harming African economies. NUCLEAR PLANT SABOTAGE: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY warned that Russian troops are planning a “terrorist act” on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest atomic power station in Europe. Zelenskyy warned on Twitter of radiation potentially affecting those outside of Ukraine, as “it will hit is determined only by the wind direction.” He didn’t provide proof, but said evidence will be shared with “everyone in the world.” Russian officials denied the accusation shortly after. Meanwhile, two bridges linking southern Ukraine to Crimea were damaged in a missile attack, Russian officials said, claiming that London ordered the strike, BBC’s PAUL KIRBY reports. The bridge is the quickest way to get to the frontline from Crimea. GERSHKOVICH HELD LONGER: A Russian court ordered Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH to be held in jail on dubious espionage charges until at least late August, the Associated Press reports. Gershkovich, who was detained in March, was ordered by a court last month to be held until Aug. 30, a decision challenged by his lawyers. “Although the outcome was expected, it is no less an outrage that his detention continues to be upheld. Evan has been wrongfully detained for more than 12 weeks for nothing more than doing his job as a journalist. We continue to demand his immediate release,” the Wall Street Journal said in a statement. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | HURD JUMPS IN: Former Rep. WILL HURD (R-Texas) officially joined the GOP presidential race today. Hurd, a former clandestine CIA officer, was the sole Black Republican in the House during his stint from 2015 to 2021. He’s a moderate, having called the "border crisis" a "myth," opposed the Trump administration’s border wall and supported a pathway to citizenship for DREAMers. While announcing his candidacy on CBS News, Hurd changed tune, characterizing the border situation as a crisis and blaming both the Biden and Trump administrations. As the 12th GOP candidate to jump in the race, it may be difficult for him to gain momentum without much name recognition. After Alex moderated a panel at the McCain Institute’s Sedona Forum earlier this year, featuring Sens. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.) and BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) mainly agreeing on ways to curb climate change, Hurd approached Alex to say that he enjoyed watching a discussion with bipartisan bonhomie. “We need to see more of that,” he said. CHRISTIE BLASTS BIDEN, BLINKEN ON CHINA: GOP presidential candidate CHRIS CHRISTIE criticized the Biden administration today for an apparent lack of communication after the president called Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING a “dictator.” After Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN went to China earlier this week to “beg” for improving relations, Biden “doesn't even know apparently what his own secretary of State is doing, says something completely different, sends mixed signals to the Chinese,” the former New Jersey governor said on Fox News. When asked about how he would deal with a potential Chinese military base on Cuba, Christie didn’t provide many details, saying instead that “we need to make sure President Xi knows who he is dealing with.” ‘ALLY’: Another GOP candidate, NIKKI HALEY, praised India as “an ally that shares our democratic values” in a Thursday tweet. Haley, whose parents are Indian, signaled she would work to strengthen Washington-New Delhi ties as president. “It's critical that we continue to grow our partnership,” she wrote. Further, Haley’s China address at the American Enterprise Institute planned for tomorrow has been postponed due to complications with the former governor’s schedule. The event will now be held on June 27 from 10:30-11:30am.
| | H-A-W-K: There are many cybersecurity issues to worry about. But one of the ones roiling official Washington is how to pronounce Lt. Gen. TIM HAUGH’s surname. Alex tracked down Biden’s nominee to lead the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command Wednesday evening to hear the answer directly from him. “H-A-W-K is how you pronounce it,” Haugh explained, confirming it wasn’t anything like “haw” or “how.” He was delighted to tell us this on the record to clear up any confusion. “Absolutely, let them know it’s said like the bird.” COLD WAR IN THE CLOUD: The Biden administration and Congress are increasingly turning their attention toward national security concerns stemming from cloud computing divisions of Chinese technology companies including Huawei and Alibaba, reports DAVID McCABE from The New York Times. Officials for the last 18 months have discussed how to pursue tightening rules for Chinese companies that operate in Washington, with an eye on limiting their growth abroad. The White House is already in discussions with cloud computing companies including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Such Cloud Computing companies operate large data centers that provide power and software to businesses, and American officials have voiced concerns that Beijing could be using their data centers to gather sensitive information. SECURING SCHOOLS: The Biden administration will look into the cybersecurity posture of K-12 schools and the agriculture sector as part of a larger effort to secure critical organizations across the nation, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The focus on these sectors comes amid increasing ransomware attacks on vulnerable schools and hospitals and is the latest effort by the White House to put in place minimum cybersecurity standards for critical networks, said ANNE NEUBERGER, the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging tech, at the Financial Times’ Cyber Resilience Summit today.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | THALES JOINS EURODRONE: French defense contractor Thales has joined a consortium of European companies to build the “Eurodrone.” Thales will be providing modems for satellite communications, Breaking Defense’s AGNES HELOU reports. The drone’s co-producers include Airbus, Dassault, Safran and Leonardo as manufacturers. “Eurodrone is a four-nation European consortium, involving Germany, France, Spain and Italy,” Helou writes. “The program has an estimated price tag of €7 billion [$7.6 billion], and the consortium has already ordered 20 systems, made up of 60 total aircraft, from Leonardo.”
| | | MARKUP HIGHLIGHTS: Lucky for our reporters, the House Armed Services Committee approved the National Defense Authorization Act just after midnight — pretty early compared to years past. Here’s a few major takeaways: Sea-launched cruise missile: The panel adopted a proposal from Strategic Forces Chair Rep. DOUG LAMBORN (R-Colo.) to create a program of record for a naval nuclear cruise missile. The move would transition the weapon, and its warhead, from research and development to procurement status. Ukraine: The panel adopted an amendment to establish a special inspector general for Ukraine from Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) without debate. Skeptics of Ukraine aid in both chambers have offered legislation to create the watchdog position, which appears to be modeled after the special inspector general for Afghanistan. Diversity and critical race theory: Republicans muscled through some limits on DOD’s efforts to promote diversity and inclusion, though some of the most controversial measures that could have pushed Democrats to oppose the bill were defeated. The committee adopted (30-29) an amendment from Gaetz to repeal the Pentagon’s chief diversity officer and agreed to another proposal, in a 31-28 party-line vote, from Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) that would bar the promotion of critical race theory. Drag shows: HASC voted 33-26 to approve Gaetz’s amendment to block funding for drag shows. Reps. GABE VASQUEZ (D-Texas) and DON DAVIS (D-N.C) joined Republicans to support the proposal. Read: 5 takeaways from the House’s marathon debate on the Pentagon’s policy bill by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, JOE GOULD and LEE HUDSON
| | | |   | | | | | DÉMARCHE: The Chinese government summoned NICHOLAS BURNS, the U.S. ambassador in Beijing, over Biden labeling China’s Xi a “dictator.” The démarche, according to the Wall Street Journal’s VIVIAN SALAMA and JAMES AREDDY, came mere hours after Blinken left China. “Démarches are used when one country wants to lodge a complaint or express an official position, and often takes place after an incident. Washington démarched a senior Chinese diplomat from the embassy following the discovery of the Chinese spy balloon,” per the WSJ. ‘STICK TO INTERNATIONAL RULES’: German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ said today that he warned Beijing against using force to achieve territorial advancements, particularly in Taiwan, and expressed concerns over human rights abuses in the country during bilateral talks earlier this week, per the AP. “We strongly reject all attempts to change the status quo in the East and South China Sea by force or coercion,” Scholz told Germany’s parliament. “That is especially true for Taiwan.” Scholz added that he “clearly urged China to stick to international rules,” referring to a joint statement released by G-7 economies last month. The comments are significantly more pointed than his public remarks alongside Chinese Premier LI QIANG earlier this week, in which the German chancellor did not mention Taiwan explicitly. Scholz previously pressed China to lean harder on Russia as Moscow’s invasion into Ukraine rages.
| | — British Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE told The Economist he’s out of the running to be NATO’s next secretary general. “It’s not going to happen,” he said, adding the Biden administration wants Stoltenberg to extend his tenure another year. — ALEX VELEZ-GREEN has joined Heritage as an adviser to Vice President for Foreign Policy and National Security JAMES JAY CARAFANO. He most recently served as national security adviser to Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo). — But Carafano, we just learned, is leaving his post as vice president of the national security and foreign policy team at Heritage. VICTORIA COATES will take over his role, two people familiar with the move told NatSec Daily. — JESSE HEATLEY has joined the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency as a cyber innovation fellow. He was a vice president for cybersecurity at JP Morgan Chase and worked at USAA Federal Savings bank on strategic cyber threat intelligence.
| | — Editorial Board, The New York Times: The India quandary — NADIA SCHADLOW, The Atlantic: The forgotten element of strategy — AUSTIN SARAT, POLITICO: Why Donald Trump wants to revive the ‘Red Scare’
| | — Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Israel at 75: The Views From Latin America — Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: Competition or cooperation: Debating a transatlantic de-risking strategy on China — Business Council for International Understanding, 12 p.m.:In-Person Luncheon with His Excellency NGUYEN QUOC DZUNG, Ambassador of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam to the United States — Homeland Security Department and Coast Guard, 1 p.m.: National Navigation Safety Advisory Committee; June 2023 Virtual Meeting Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never makes this process easy on us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is as easy going as they come.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
