|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Ari Hawkins | |  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives for the European Political Community Summit at the Mimi Castle in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1, 2023. | Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo | With help from Paul McLeary, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY wants security guarantees from NATO. What he might get instead is guarantees, either collectively or individually, from the “European Quad.” According to multiple American and European officials, the U.S., Britain, France and Germany are working together to provide those assurances to Kyiv. They would, in essence, formalize their military and economic support for Ukraine, keeping it flowing even after the fighting stops. However, neither a bilateral deal nor multilateral agreement would have the legal force of a treaty. In effect, the four countries are offering more of the same for an indefinite period of time. “The U.S. is in talks with Ukraine and our allies and partners on how we can reassure Ukraine about their long-term security to deter any future aggression for after this war ends,” a National Security Council spokesperson confirmed. The official was not authorized to use their name when providing this statement to the press. The Financial Times was first to report on the discussions that not everyone is happy about. Some U.S. lawmakers also aren’t sure that focusing on providing security guarantees outside of the alliance right now is wise. Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), co-chair of the NATO Observer Group, said he’d prefer members send a “strong message” to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN by having all allies meet their 2 percent defense-spending target. “Then we can have a discussion about security agreements, after the facts on the ground [in Ukraine] change." Others are offering some ideas on how to defend Ukraine for the long term. Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, suggested elevating the NATO-Ukraine Commission to a “Council,” thereby giving Kyiv the authority to call for alliance meetings and allowing for more intelligence sharing. Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), a close confidante of President JOE BIDEN, noted certain security guarantees were already extended to Ukraine in the “Budapest Memorandum” after the country turned over nuclear weapons following the Soviet Union’s collapse. We’re “back to the future,” he said in an interview. A European official, however, cautioned that anything is imminent. “These negotiations and discussions are ongoing but they haven't reached any particular fruition, as of yet, because there's no doubt that this is also a very, very complicated issue,” said the official, who wasn’t authorized to speak to media. Read the full story from Alex, JOE GOULD and PAUL McLEARY here.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | WE’RE TALKING AGAIN: The U.S. and Iran are talking once again, the Wall Street Journal’s LAURENCE NORMAN and DAVID CLOUD report, noting that the focus is on the release of American prisoners and the curbing of Tehran’s advancing nuclear work. “After discussions started between senior U.S. and Iranian officials in New York in December, White House officials have traveled to Oman at least three times for further indirect contacts,” they wrote. “Omani officials passed messages between the two sides.” They added: “In exchange for a prisoner release and limits on nuclear work, Tehran is seeking billions of dollars in Iranian energy revenue trapped abroad by U.S. sanctions. Iranian officials have repeatedly tied the possible release of prisoners to winning access to $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea and demanded access to billions of dollars held in Iraq for deliveries of gas and oil.” BLINKEN TO CHINA: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will travel to China to meet with Beijing’s senior officials this week, Matt reports. During the trip, he’ll discuss the “importance of maintaining open lines of communication to responsibly manage” the relationship between the two countries, the State Department said. "We're coming to Beijing with a realistic, confident approach and a sincere desire to manage our competition the most responsible way possible. We do hope, at a minimum, that we will achieve that goal, and we also do hope, of course, to make progress on a number of concrete issues," DANIEL KRITENBRINK, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told reporters on a call this morning. "It would be wise not to have expectations of a long list of deliverables because that's not where we are, I think, in the bilateral relationship." In a call with Blinken ahead of the trip, Chinese Foreign Minister QIN GANG urged Washington to respect “China’s core concerns,” like its stance on Taiwan, and “stop interfering in China’s internal affairs, and stop harming China’s sovereignty, security and development interests in the name of competition.” HE’LL NEVER LEAVE: Right now, Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN is the frontrunner to become the next NATO chief. But that won't last if Poland has its way, European officials told the Wall Street Journal’s VIVIAN SALAMA. Warsaw is likely to oppose Frederiksen’s bid to succeed NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG, with concerns centering on Denmark not meeting its defense spending targets for the bloc. Poland also thinks it's time for a leader from the Eastern flank after 15 years of Nordic leaders at the helm, European officials said. Warsaw’s approval is critical for Frederiksen’s candidacy, since all 31 member states must select the next leader by consensus. The Danish PM is the preferred candidate among most members, but Poland believes choosing a leader from a nation that was once in the Soviet Union would send a strong message to Russia amid the war. But it’s possible Stoltenberg could remain in his post, a NATO foreign minister and a senior Western diplomat who has discussed the possibility of an extension with the chief told the Financial Times’ HENRY FOY, FELICIA SCHWARTZ and RICHARD MILNE. Stoltenberg has said he has no intention of seeking an extension. But “in the interests of continuity, it makes sense,” the senior Western diplomat said. “He would do it. He is a man of duty.” Moscow continued missile attacks and shelling of Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions today, killing at least six people, the Associated Press’ JAMEY KEATEN reports. Three food warehouse employees were killed in Odesa while shelling in the cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka killed another three people and destroyed or damaged dozens of homes, local officials said. BELA-NUKES: Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO confirmed his country has started to receive tactical nuclear weapons from Russia, per LIDIA KELLY and ANDREW OSBORN from Reuters. “We have missiles and bombs that we have received from Russia," Lukashenko said in an interview with the Rossiya-1 Russian state TV channel. He added that “the bombs are three times more powerful than those [dropped on] Hiroshima and Nagasaki.” Putin said in March that he agreed to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Minsk, in a step being watched closely by Washington and its allies, which have repeatedly cautioned against the use of such weapons in the Russian conflict. Moscow has claimed that it retains full control of the weapons, but Lukashenko said that, if they need to be used quickly, he and Putin could hop on the phone “at any moment.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY, ARMY!: America’s senior service is more senior-y today as the Army celebrates its 248th birthday. Two fun facts from the Council on Foreign Relations’ JAMES LINDSAY: Eleven Army generals have become president and roughly 70 percent of all 3,516 Medal of Honor recipients wore the Army uniform. Read: June 14th: the birthday of the U.S. Army by the U.S. Army Center of Military History IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and @JGedeon1.
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ‘SCARED SHITLESS’: Former President DONALD TRUMP is putting on a celebratory front after pleading not guilty to charges that he broke the law by keeping highly classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, according to his former chief of staff JOHN KELLY, report ISAAC ARNSDORF and JOSH DAWSEY from the Washington Post. “He gives people the appearance he doesn’t care by doing this. For the first time in his life, it looks like he’s being held accountable. Up until this point in his life, it’s like, I’m not going to pay you, take me to court. He’s never been held accountable before,” said Kelly. “He’s scared shitless,” he added. In an interview with CNBC today, former Vice President and current 2024 hopeful MIKE PENCE said “this indictment includes serious charges … and I can't defend what's alleged.” ‘WE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UKRAINE’: Despite divisions in his party over support for Ukraine, 2024 Republican candidate ASA HUTCHINSON said it was important the U.S. stand by the country as it fends off Russia. It’s important “we don't show weakness and we continue to support Ukraine,” he told POLITICO reporters in the office today, adding the billions in weapons and economic assistance provided by the Biden administration is “proportionally a very important investment for us.” However, the former Arkansas governor said the goal should not be to “prolong” the war, and one of his criticisms is that the administration has done so by failing to provide materiel to Ukraine fast enough.
| | EU RESTRICTS AI: European Union lawmakers today adopted the Artificial Intelligence Act, bringing the bloc closer to placing unprecedented guardrails on how companies can use the tech, our own GIAN VOLPICELLI reports. The act would ban systems that have an “unacceptable level of risk,” including as predictive policing tools and social scoring systems like those used in China. It also limits “high-risk AI” that could influence voters or harm people’s health. Content created by systems such as ChatGPT would also have to be labeled as such. The proposal, which has been two years in the making, will next be negotiated among all three European Union institutions before becoming law. Europe is much further ahead than the U.S. with regulating AI, as Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER told the Washington Post that lawmakers will “start looking at specific stuff in the fall” to rein in the tech. Read: The British diplomat trying to win over the U.S. tech industry by BRENDAN BORDELON.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | BUY OUR DRONES: The Biden administration is pushing India to purchase dozens of U.S.-made drones ahead of Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI’s state visit to Washington, Reuters reports. “Since the date for Modi's visit was fixed, the U.S. State Department, Pentagon and White House have asked India to be able to ‘show’ progress on the deal for as many as 30 armable MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones made by General Atomics,” MIKE STONE, TREVOR HUNNICUTT and KRISHN KAUSHIK write. Defense industry matters are high on the priority list, it seems. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on a likely deal to make General Electric engines in India for the country’s fighter jets.
| | WON’T BE COACHED: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) is rejecting off-ramps and advice from more senior Republicans to end his hold on military promotions, Alex and Joe report. The Alabama lawmaker’s colleagues have approached him in recent weeks to broker a compromise that would allow roughly 250 senior officer promotions to clear the Senate. Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) said he has spoken with Tuberville to “work with him to help him achieve his goal” when the Senate considers the National Defense Authorization Act. Cornyn indicated that he agreed with Tuberville’s stance on the Pentagon policy and was not pressuring him, insisting it was Tuberville’s choice on whether to drop his hold. But last week, Tuberville said he would not debate the issue as part of the fiscal 2024 NDAA (for Pros!), calling for a “clean” defense policy bill. Meanwhile, Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) aims to pass a bill that effectively neuters the Pentagon’s policy. She offered Tuberville a deal in which her measure would receive a vote as part of the NDAA process in exchange for his lifting the holds. But the Alabaman rejected that trade, according to a Senate Republican aide who was granted anonymity to discuss the interaction. Punchbowl News first reported on the development with Ernst. HARDBALL ON HUNGARY: The chair of the powerful Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Sen. JAMES RISCH (R-Idaho) is blocking a $735 million U.S. arms sale to Hungary to punish the country for refusing to allow Sweden into NATO, the lawmaker told JOHN HUDSON and LOVEDAY MORRIS from the Washington Post. “For some time now, I have directly expressed my concerns to the Hungarian government regarding its refusal to move forward a vote for Sweden to join NATO,” the lawmaker told the Post. “I decided that the sale of new U.S. military equipment to Hungary will be on hold,” he added. The arms package includes 24 HIMARS rocket launcher batteries, as well as more than 100 rockets and pods and related parts. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SINGAPORE MEETING: The top two members of the House China Committee will meet this evening with Singapore’s top diplomat, NatSec Daily has learned. Chair MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) and ranking member RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Calif.) will sit down with Foreign Minister VIVIAN BALAKRISHNAN at the Capitol complex. We’re told they will discuss the panel’s priorities, views on China and Washington-Beijing relations, developments in the Indo-Pacific and U.S. engagement in the region. “The United States cannot combat the Chinese Communist Party’s aggression alone; we need our allies and partners in the region and across the globe to stand with us and defend shared values,” Gallagher told us. “I hope that our meeting today with our Singaporean friends sends a message to XI JINPING.”
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– DON’T SELL CLUSTER MUNITIONS: The U.S. shouldn’t send cluster munitions to Ukraine, a group of 38 groups urged in a letter to the White House today that was obtained by NatSec Daily, as the Biden administration hasn’t ruled out the option. “Any claims of potential tactical benefits of the transfer and subsequent use of cluster munitions by Ukraine in the defense of its territory, dismisses both the substantial danger that cluster munitions pose to civilians, and the international consensus on their prohibition,” wrote the organizations including Arms Control Association, Human Rights Watch and Foreign Policy for America. Cluster munitions are a highly controversial class of weapons that are banned by more than 120 countries. Critics, like the letter’s signatories, say they kill indiscriminately and endanger civilians because their bomblets can fail to explode, littering battlefields for years. Late last year, Biden administration officials signaled that they had “concerns” about sending those weapons to Ukraine.
| | | |   | | | | | — SEAN McCLINTOCK has become Sen. BEN CARDIN’s (D-Md.) senior defense policy adviser. He was previously Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO’s (D-Nev.) national security adviser. — BENJAMINE "CARRY" HUFFMAN is retiring from Customs and Border Protection where he is currently acting deputy commissioner. He has served almost four decades at the agency and started with the U.S. Border Patrol in 1985, joining the Senior Executive Service in 2014. — MILLICENT HENNESSEY is now deputy director of policy in the worldwide aerospace and defense division at GlobalFoundries. She most recently was senior manager of public policy at Samsung Semiconductor and is a NSC alum.
| | — Federal Government of Germany: National security strategy — JACK WATLING, Royal United Services Institute: Ukraine’s counteroffensive begins: shall the Leopards break free? — ULRICH KÜHN and HEATHER WILLIAMS, Foreign Affairs: A new approach to arms control
| | — POLITICO, 6:30 a.m.: Global Tech Day: Who will run the future as tech shapes global power, politics and policy? — Defense One, 8 a.m.: Tech Summit — Project on Nuclear Issues, 8:30 a.m.: Capstone Conference — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: Europe, the United States, and Relations with China: Convergence or Divergence — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: U.S.-ROK Security, Semiconductors, and Sensitive Technologies — U.S.-ASEAN Business Council and the Center for Strategic & International Studies, 9:45 a.m.: U.S.-Indo-Pacific Conference 2023 — Israel Policy Forum, 2 p.m.: Leveraging the Prospect of Israel-Saudi Normalization to Advance Israeli-Palestinian Progress — Center for a New American Security, 2:30 p.m.: Effects of the Russian Oil Cap with Dep. Sec. WALLY ADEYEMO — Brookings Institution, 2:30 p.m.: Evaluating NATO enlargement since the end of the Cold War Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who reminds us every day our jobs are never guaranteed. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we would all protect with our lives.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
