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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) shakes hands with Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (right) as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg looks on prior to a meeting ahead of a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 10, 2023. | Pool Photo by Yves Herman | With help from Alex Ward, Daniel Lippman and Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt It’s official: Fourteen months after Sweden applied to become NATO’s 32nd member, Turkey has finally agreed to let Stockholm in. It’s been a harrowing process for Sweden, which was initially slated to join the bloc alongside its Nordic neighbor Finland. But Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN stood in the way — even urging the alliance to “clear the way” for Ankara into the European Union this morning. The chances of that happening were slim to none, and the Turkish leader knew that. Still, he held strong. “Nobody should expect compromise nor understanding from me,” he said earlier today. Well, compromise and understanding appears to be what he delivered during a meeting with NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG and Swedish Prime Minister ULF KRISTERSSON. In a joint statement following the talks, Turkey, Sweden and NATO underlined that Stockholm had changed laws, expanded counterterrorism cooperation against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and restarted arms exports to Turkey, reports our own LILI BAYER. Ankara and Stockholm also agreed to create a “new bilateral Security Compact” and that Sweden will present a “roadmap as the basis of its continued fight against terrorism in all its forms,” the statement said. As part of the deal, Stoltenberg has also agreed to create a new post of “Special Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism” at NATO. The announcement comes after over a year of wrangling to get Turkey and Hungary to sign off on admitting Sweden and Finland into the alliance, with NATO leaders publicly and privately lobbying the Turkish leader to expand the alliance roster. “No real new win for Erdoğan, especially given his escalatory signaling right before,” ALPER COŞKUN, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Europe Program, told NatSec Daily. “But he can sell this escalation and result at home by stressing what he got, not what’s missing,” referring to Turkey’s EU bid. MATHIEU DROIN, a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, struck a similar tone, telling NatSec Daily that the Turkish president waited until “the last minute to concede and appear as a magnanimous leader at the summit.” In a statement after the announcement, President JOE BIDEN welcomed the agreement and said: “I stand ready to work with President Erdoğan and Turkey on enhancing defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area.” Biden may find out more about what changed the Turkish president’s stance when he meets with Erdoğan on Tuesday, as Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE reported.
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Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | NAY TO NATO: Biden is also aiming to meet with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on Wednesday, though the plans haven’t been finalized, two people familiar with the planning told Alex and Jonathan. Ukraine hasn't confirmed whether Zelenskyy will attend the summit. Ukraine’s NATO hopes will be another hot topic at Vilnius. Today, NATO members have agreed to let Kyiv bypass a formal process in its application to join: “Following intensive talks, NATO allies have reached consensus on removing MAP from Ukraine's path to membership,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA tweeted. The Membership Action Plan requires a candidate nation to make military and democratic reforms, with NATO’s advice and assistance, before a determination of membership can be made. By removing that requirement, Ukraine would still need to make some pro-democracy changes, but alliance members could at any point afterward unanimously welcome Kyiv into the club. But Ukraine’s odds in the near term aren’t looking so good — especially after Biden publicly shot down the idea: “I don’t think it’s ready for membership in NATO,” Biden said during a CNN interview Sunday. “I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.” His remarks followed “frantic, last-minute” negotiations to finalize a security assurance declaration for Ukraine ahead of the summit by the U.S., U.K., France and Germany, our own HANS VON DER BURCHARD, PAUL MCLEARY and LAURA KAYALI reported Sunday. If you’re at the summit, don’t forget to say hello to Alex, who is on his way to Lithuania after a delayed plane and hotel troubles. “Get ready for some extra jet-lagged reporting,” he says. No excuses, I say. Read: Keeping it real at NATO by NAHAL TOOSI PRIGOZHIN SAW PUTIN: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN met with Wagner chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN in the Kremlin after the paramilitary group’s aborted mutiny last month, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports. The meeting at the Kremlin on June 29 lasted nearly three hours, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said today, according to state-owned newswire Ria Novosti. Thirty-five people were invited to attend the high-stakes Moscow meeting, including “all the commanders of the military detachments” and Prigozhin, he said. The Wagner commanders were then offered “further options for employment and further combat use,” he added, saying that the paramilitaries said they were “ready to continue to fight” for Russia. ON THE GUEST LIST: South Korean President YOON SUK-YEOL is attending the NATO summit again this year, and he’ll introduce a new NATO-South Korea document to solidify ties with the military alliance, the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reports. Not many details were provided, but Yoon said the agreement will take effect at the summit and outline cooperation in almost a dozen areas, including non-proliferation and cybersecurity. As tensions with Pyongyang continue to skyrocket amid nuclear tension, Yoon wants to garner international backing: “Now is the time to clearly demonstrate that the international community’s determination to deter North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is stronger than North Korea’s desire to develop nuclear weapons,” he said. MILLEY ON THE MOVE: Joint Chiefs Gen. MARK MILLEY and other U.S. military leaders will meet with Japanese and South Korean officials this week as part of a six-day trip to the region to reinforce Washington's relationship with both nations. “These military-to-military relationships provide reassurance to the people of their countries and their political leadership,” Col. DAVE BUTLER, Milley’s spokesperson, told NatSec Daily. “It shows the trilateral relationships [are] intact and getting stronger.” IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | ‘TERRIFIED’: Top homeland security officials were so alarmed about escalating tensions with North Korea less than a year into Trump’s presidency that they held multiple meetings to prepare for a nuclear attack on American soil. That’s according to an excerpt from former DHS official MILES TAYLOR’s forthcoming book, “Blowback: A Warning to Save Democracy from the Next Trump.” which was shared with our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN. In an excerpt, Taylor describes acute concerns in the Trump administration in 2017 after North Korean missile tests — including one while then-Japanese Prime Minister SHINZO ABE visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Trump responded to the missile tests with increasingly bellicose rhetoric. “One day, he threatened North Korea ‘with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before.’ He almost seemed to welcome a nuclear conflict, which terrified us,’” writes Taylor, who authored the “Anonymous” op-ed.
| | LET THE DATA FLOW: The European Union today approved a new data-transfer deal with Washington, ending three years of legal limbo and rebooting the transatlantic free flow of digital information, our own CLOTHILDE GOUJARD and ALFRED NG report. The European Commission adopted a so-called adequacy decision, recognizing the U.S. as a country with sufficient protection for Europeans’ personal data that's sent there — effectively sealing the agreement. The deal, known as EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework, revives transatlantic exchanges underpinning billions' worth of digital trade after the EU's top court struck down two previous agreements over fears of U.S. intelligence agencies' snooping. "The new EU-U.S. data privacy framework will ensure safe data flows for Europeans and bring legal certainty to companies on both sides of the Atlantic," Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN said.
| | | | JOIN 7/11 FOR A TALK ON THE FAA’S FUTURE: Congress is making moves to pass the FAA Reauthorization Act, laying the groundwork for the FAA’s long-term agenda to modernize the aviation sector to meet the challenges of today and innovate for tomorrow. Join POLITICO on July 11 to discuss what will make it into the final reauthorization bill and examine how reauthorization will reshape FAA’s priorities and authorities. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | WEANING OFF RUSSIA: Indian defense officials believe their country needs to develop its own domestic weapons industry to decrease reliance on Russian-made weapons as India moves toward the West. "It is a reality that we have to reduce dependence on Russia," a senior Indian defense officer told Reuters’ KRISHN KAUSHIK and DAVID BRUNNSTROM. "But that is part two. The part one is the effort to get out of the import business." During Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI's trip to Washington last month, India announced multi-billion-dollar purchases of U.S. arms. As the world’s largest importer of weapons, it could take India decades before making a big shift away from trade with Moscow, experts told Reuters. Over the last two decades, India has bought $60 billion in arms — mostly from Russia. "Nobody gives you everything. They keep you at least a screwdriver away from having it fully," another senior official from India's defense ministry told Reuters, referring to allies sharing military technology with India.
| | PARTY POOPING: For the first time in more than a century, the Marine Corps has no Senate-confirmed leader. There’s unlikely to change any time soon, our own PAUL McLEARY reports. Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) seven-month hold on all senior military promotions ran head-on into the long military history of smooth leadership handovers today, as outgoing Commandant Gen. DAVID BERGER was supposed to hand the reins over to Gen. ERIC SMITH. Instead, Smith will run the Corps on a temporary basis while he waits for Senate confirmation, thanks to the hold. Because he’s not confirmed, Smith will have to hold off on making any making strategic decisions for the service. He will also simultaneously serve in his current position as the Marine Corps’ No. 2. “I know that everyone here is looking forward to the rapid confirmation of a distinguished successor to General Berger,” Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said. “Smooth and timely transitions of confirmed leadership are central to the defense of the United States.” DIGGING UP DIRT: Senators on the Agriculture Committee are weighing plans to formally dig into Chinese entities buying U.S. farmland, people familiar with the plans tells our own MEREDITH LEE HILL. Senate Ag members in recent weeks have been weighing plans to hold a hearing on foreign ownership of U.S. agricultural land, two Democrats and one Republican told Meredith. But senators decided to push any public hearing on foreign farmland land purchases to the fall amid an impasse about the way forward and ahead of upcoming work on the farm bill, they said. The convening would mark the first formal discussion solely dedicated to the high-profile issue this Congress, and is likely to shape future policies on Chinese investment in the U.S. amid a surge of anti-Beijing sentiment on Capitol Hill.
| | | |   | | | | | MENACING VIEW OF MOSCOW: Some 82 percent of people across two dozen countries have a negative view of Russia and a similar percentage don’t believe Putin would “do the right thing” when it comes to world affairs, according to a new Pew Research Center study. AMMO AGAINST BIDEN: Two conservatives lawmakers lashed out at Biden for saying that the U.S military is “low” on 155mm artillery rounds due to the war in Ukraine during the CNN interview.. “The war pimps love this. They will now buy stock in ammo companies like they did when we sent our missile defense system to Ukraine,” Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) tweeted today. Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.) also chimed in, saying that the president “just admitted we’re low on artillery ammunition. We cannot be sending any more to Ukraine. America comes first.” The White House clarified Biden’s comment in a statement to Fox News: “The military has specific requirements for the numbers of weapons systems and ammunition we maintain in our reserves in case of contingencies or military conflict. Everything we send to Ukraine is in excess of that. So, the U.S. is not running out of ammunition ourselves."
| | — DAN WATSON is now assistant secretary for the office of public affairs at DHS. He most recently was managing director at FGS Global and is an Obama Treasury and FEMA alum, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. Watson replaces MARSHA ESPINOSA who will announce her next steps in the coming weeks. — GARRETT BERNTSEN is now director for technology and national security at the National Security Council. He most recently was deputy chief data officer at the State Department. — Marine Sergeant Major TROY BLACK, now the Corps' top enlisted official, was named as the next senior enlisted adviser to the chair of the Joint Chiefs. — KENNETH WEINSTEIN will be the next Japan Chair at the Hudson Institute. He is the former Hudson president and CEO and a current Walter P. Stern Distinguished Fellow. — ENRIQUE DESMOND ARIAS has been appointed director of the Bildner Center for Western Hemisphere Studies at the CUNY Graduate Center. He has previously served as a consultant to the Ford Foundation and numerous U.N. programs.
| | — JENS STOLTENBERG, Foreign Affairs: A stronger NATO for a more dangerous world — JACK WATLING and JUSTIN BRONK, Rusi: Giving Ukraine cluster munitions is necessary, legal and morally justified — Editorial board, The New York Times: The flawed moral logic of sending cluster munitions to Ukraine
| | — Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: NATO Public Forum — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Hearing on the nomination of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. BROWN to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Investigations Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Hearing on the Saudi Arabia PGA-LIV deal — United States Institute of Peace, 10:15 a.m.: The Growing Importance of NATO's Indo-Pacific Partners: Views from the Region on NATO Relations and the Vilnius Summit — Heritage Foundation, 10:30 a.m.: The Future of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance in the Indo-Pacific with Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) and Rep. YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.) — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 11 a.m.: Beyond Precision: Maintaining America's Strike Advantage in Great Power Conflict — Middle East Institute, 1 p.m.: Does U.S. Policy Toward the Taliban Need Rethinking? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who said “if Matt needs help in the future, he won’t get it,” after today’s newsletter. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is all the help we could ever need.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
