3 takeaways from 3 trips to Europe

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Jul 14,2023 07:58 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

Joe Biden walks on stage as people hold up phones and U.S. and Lithuania flags.

President Joe Biden has asserted over and over again that the U.S., under his watch, has returned to its historical role as a trusted ally of European nations. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

With help from Paul McLeary, Lara Seligman, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman

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BRUSSELS — Your Belgian beer drinking, moules frites eating host has now been to Europe three times this year (and more if you count some late 2022 sojourns), on each visit asking a mix of local and U.S. officials about the state of transatlantic relations. Since yesterday we hit upon where the NATO alliance is following this week’s summit, today it’s worth discussing the American-European state of play.

America is back…right? You’ve heard President JOE BIDEN say it over and over again. The U.S., under his watch, has returned to its historical role as a trusted ally of European nations.

But the possible reelection of former President DONALD TRUMP looms large. Officials across the continent have continually brought up a version of this question: Will America be a friend if the old president returns?

There are some European officials who liked seeing Trump in the Oval Office, partly because he reflected their views on immigration and economic issues and — they claimed — his “madman” act staved off a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But the consensus is that a Biden-led America is better for Europe. As one western European official who, like others, wasn’t authorized to speak to the press put it, “this is as close to post-1945 America as we here can remember.”

‘The continent is hardening.’ European allies have never felt as empowered to invest in their militaries and a robust defense posture as they do today.

The jury is out on whether the most responsible person for that is Trump, Biden or Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN (¿por qué no los tres?). But there’s no question Europe is bolstering its defenses.

As we mentioned yesterday: about 300,000 troops will be ready to deploy to NATO’s eastern flank in case of attack, which would add to the eight multinational battlegroups in the region.

“The continent is hardening, and I think we’ll start to see starker divisions forming between Eastern and Western Europe as time goes on,” said the Atlantic Council’s RACHEL RIZZO. “It’s not just about the Franco-German partnership anymore.”

The China question looms. All the talk of transatlantic is on the defensive side in regard to Russia. But when it comes to China — the longer-term geopolitical challenge — the U.S. and Europe still have a large bridge to gap.

POLITICO’s STUART LAU, BARBARA MOENS and SUZANNE LYNCH reported last month: “EU governments still are trying to work out how far to go in severing sensitive business ties with Beijing in order to avoid repeating the bloc’s disastrous dependency on Russia.”

Washington isn’t trying to get Brussels to fully decouple from Beijing, but they want European governments to generally side with the American position that the West should start preparing to fend for itself, especially in the realm of technological innovation.

“We’re just not there yet,” a German official told us this year.

“I don’t think there’s ever going to be a unified European China policy,” Rizzo added on.

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The Inbox

RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT HARASS US FORCES IN SYRIA: Russian aircraft have increasingly harassed U.S. forces in Syria in recent weeks, most recently intercepting an MQ-9 drone and flying an AN-30 surveillance aircraft over the Al Tanf garrison today, a senior Defense Department official told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

This type of activity is now happening “regularly,” said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. “That’s almost routine now: If they pick up a visual of our aircraft and they are in the area intercepting them, then they will attempt to dog fight.”

This is the fourth time in just two weeks that Russian aircraft have harassed U.S. drones over Syria, a sign of increasing tension between the two countries in the Middle East. During the incidents, Russian jets dropped flares in front of U.S. drones, forcing them to take evasive maneuvers, and one Russian jet also lit its afterburner in front of a drone.

The latest incident involving MQ-9s was not unsafe, but it was deemed “unprofessional,” the official said, because the Russian aircraft came within three nautical miles of the drone.

The AN-30 aircraft, meanwhile, loitered over the Al Tanf garrison for an extended period of time, the official said, and commanders assed it was attempting to conduct a surveillance mission “over the entire garrison.”

The U.S. was not immediately able to send aircraft to respond to the surveillance Friday, the official said, due to a “gap in coverage.” Instead, officials protested verbally over the deconfliction line, the official said.

A PUBLIC SPY CHIEF: Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, KYRYLO BUDANOV, believes that even the most secretive spy masters need to have a public profile these days.

"It's not possible without this, not anymore," he told Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH in an interview published today. "And all the next wars are going to look like this. In any country in the world. We can say that we're setting a trend here."

The reason is that Ukraine realizes one of the battlefields is in the information space, and Kyiv was losing on it following the 2014 invasion by Russia. In the lead up to the full-scale incursion from 2022, and ever since, Kyiv feels it must always be on the front foot in this arena.

"We completely lost the information war in 2014. ... And now the Russians are losing the information battle," Budanov said.

PUTIN’S OFFER TO WAGNER: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said he offered the Wagner paramilitary troops the option to serve in a single unit under one commander following the group’s failed rebellion led by YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN last month.

“All of them could have gathered in one place and continued to serve,” Putin told a Russian newspaper, according to the Associated Press.

“Nothing would have changed for them. They would have been led by the same person who had been their real commander all along,” said a commander who goes by the call name Gray Hair.

Thirty-five commanders, including Prigozhin, were in attendance. “The boys won’t agree with such a decision,” Prigozhin apparently told Putin. But the Wagner chief was sitting in front of his commanders, many of whom nodded in agreement with the proposal, Putin said. He didn’t elaborate on what decision, if any, the group made.

TROOPS TO EUROPE: The additional 3,000 U.S. reserve troops authorized for deployment to Europe will mostly focus on administrative and logistics tasks to "support and sustain a large troop presence for a long time,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told Fox News today.

The U.S. already has 80,000 troops in Europe, Kirby said, and the move reflects a realization that "the security environment in Europe has changed.” It will help ensure the U.S. has "the proper force posture to be able to support an additional eastern flank presence for the long haul,” he added.

It’s not clear whether Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN plans to actually deploy these reservists anytime soon, but the move suggests that the U.S. military’s training mission in Europe, along with the deployment of several new brigades after the invasion, has stretched active-duty forces.

CLUSTER BOMBS ARRIVE IN UKRAINE: The cluster munitions Washington promised to Kyiv have landed in the country, Lt. Gen. DOUGLAS SIMS, director of operations for the Joint Staff, confirmed during a Thursday briefing.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO: Last month, when it was revealed that Special Envoy for Iran ROB MALLEY was taking leave due to a security clearance investigation, the State Department said Malley’s deputy, ABRAM PALEY, would take over as “acting special envoy.”

Two weeks later, NAHAL TOOSI writes in, State is back to calling Paley by his original title, deputy special envoy. The reversion was made clear in updates to the Iran team’s Twitter account that were announced in an email to reporters today. The email also noted that Paley, a career diplomat, “leads the office in his capacity as deputy special envoy.”

Why the switch back? The department won’t say. But it comes after a group of Republican lawmakers asked the State Department inspector general’s office to look into the Malley situation Thursday, as our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN reported..

Among other things, lawmakers asked if the department had properly notified Congress of Paley’s upgraded status to “acting special envoy.”

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring Mexican Amb. to the U.S. ESTEBAN MOCTEZUMA BARRAGÁN. He likes mezcal with tobalá agave, he told our own DANIEL LIPPMAN, who interviewed him for today's Global Insider. "The brand is not the important thing. The important thing is the agave and this to me is the best," he advised. He often enjoys the mezcal at Maiz64, the Mexican restaurant on 14th Street in Washington.

¡Salud, Señor Embajador!

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
2024

‘WE CAN DO BOTH’: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE criticized the Biden administration for running low on ammunition, saying Washington should be able to help Ukraine and maintain its stockpiles.

"The answer is not to shrink from America's role as leader of the free world,” the GOP presidential candidate told journalist TUCKER CARLSON at The Family Leadership Summit today. “The answer is to invest in our national defense. Anybody that says we can’t be the leader of the free world and solve our problems at home has a pretty small view of the greatest nation on Earth. We can do both.”

‘I’D KICK HIS ASS’: Would it impact national security if two presidential candidates got in a fist fight? Probably not, but it’s Friday. Humor us.

When asked by journalist PIERS MORGAN if he could take Trump if the two tussled in the ring, former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE scoffed. “The guy’s 78 years old, I’d kick his ass,” the 60-year-old said Thursday night about beating up someone 17 years his senior.

Trump’s response? “Chris Christie should think before he opens his mouth,” Trump campaign spokesperson STEVEN CHEUNG told Matt.

Place your bets, folks.

Keystrokes

CHINA’S RULES FOR AI: China’s government released guidelines mandating generative AI follow the rules of the ruling party’s ideology, the Washington Post’s MEAGHAN TOBIN reports.

The “Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services” will take effect Aug. 15. It’s Beijing’s attempt to allow innovation within its technology industries while restricting how their products perform in the public sphere.

“Companies providing AI generated content to the public must still take steps to be sure such content is accurate and reliable — and in line with China’s core socialist values,” Tobin wrote.

“This is a pretty significant set of responsibilities, and will make it hard for smaller companies without an existing compliance and censorship apparatus to offer services,” HELEN TONER of Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology told WaPo.

 

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The Complex

BULGARIAN SHELLS TO UKRAINE: Bulgarian 155mm shells are making their way to Ukraine via the U.S., Defense One’s SAM SKOVE reports.

One of the largest artillery contracts is for $522 million, awarded by the U.S. Army, to Northrop Grumman and Global Military Products. “The bulk of the money — $402 million — has already been allocated to Global Military Products. It also indicates where the shells are coming from: Bulgaria,” he wrote.

This is the first confirmation that Bulgarian rounds are on the battlefield, as the country’s pro-Russia president vowed not to support a European Union effort to produce more of them. “The $402 million contract could buy as many as 800,000 155mm shells at $500 apiece,” per Skove.

On the Hill

NOW FOR THE SENATE BUZZSAW: House Republicans united to narrowly pass major defense policy legislation today that restricts the Pentagon policies on abortion access, medical care for transgender troops and diversity in a narrow vote, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.

But the many culture war provisions Republicans packed into the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act to win conservative votes are doomed in the Democratic-controlled Senate. The 219-210 vote saw all but four Democrats oppose the bill, which authorizes a national defense budget of $886 billion for fiscal 2024. Conversely, only four Republicans opposed the measure as Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY held his conference together to clear the legislation.

"I take solace in the fact that this is not going to become law, and we have an opportunity to correct it,” said Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, of the path forward. “But it's really very disturbing how divisive all this has become, the degree to which the Republican majority wants to attack diversity. Bottom line. Attack trans people. Attack women. Attack people of color."

IT WAS A MISTAKE: Some have noticed that Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the HFAC chair, voted in favor of Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.)’s measure to block the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine.

But a HFAC GOP aide said McCaul, who has long supported delivering those weapons to Kyiv, voted in error and is working to “correct the record.”

Hey, we all make mistakes.

Broadsides

‘BRINK OF NUCLEAR WAR’: North Korea’s U.N. ambassador made a rare public appearance to defend Pyongyang’s intercontinental ballistic missile test this week, blaming Washington for pushing the region “to the brink of nuclear war,” the Associated Press reports.

Wednesday’s test-flight of the Hwasong-18 missile was an exercise in self-defense, KIM SONG told the U.N. Security Council, and he blasted the United States for its increased military presence near the peninsula and nuclear threats. The missile posed no threat to neighbors Japan and South Korea, he said, though it landed in the waters between.

“How can an ICBM launch ever make neighboring countries appear safe?” South Korea’s U.N. Ambassador HWANG JOON-KOOK asked. Kim’s appearance marked the first time a North Korean ambassador has addressed the security council in six years.

 

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Transitions

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: KATIE TOBIN is staying on at the NSC into the fall to serve as coordinator for the LA Declaration on Migration and Protection to support implementing key milestones of the declaration, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was senior director for transborder issues.

MONTE HAWKINS is now senior director for transborder at the NSC and a special assistant to the president. He most recently was acting assistant secretary for counterterrorism, threat prevention and law enforcement in the DHS Office of Strategy, Policy and Plans.

— The White House is planning to tap longtime military health official Maj. Gen. PAUL FRIEDRICHS to head its new pandemic preparedness office, the Post’s DAN DIAMOND reports. Friedrichs recently retired from the military before joining the NSC to work on biodefense and global health security.

RAVEN BUKOWSKI STEIN is now director of legislative affairs at the NSC. She most recently was principal deputy for the office of legislative affairs at the Joint Staff at the Pentagon.

FRANK RUSSO has been named director of the new CPAC Center for Combating Human Trafficking. Russo most recently was director of government and legislative affairs at the National District Attorneys Association and is an alum of the House Judiciary Committee and Senate Judiciary Committee.

JENNY MALLAMO was promoted to director of media relations at the Council on Foreign Relations. She was last the deputy director of global communications and media relations.

ADELINE TOLLE is now scheduler to the secretary of Homeland Security. She most recently was a presidential management fellow at the office of general counsel at the VA.

— The Treasury Department named ANDREA GACKI as the director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN. Gacki’s last role was as the director of the Office of Financial Assets Control, or OFAC.

What to Read

Congressional Budget Office: Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2023 to 2032

— Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE, Fox News: The left is attacking me but they are the ones jeopardizing our military

KSENIA KIRILLOVA, RealClear Defense: The Putin Vertical Will Continue To Collapse

Monday Today

Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: The proposal for a UN cyber programme of action

Atlantic Council, 11:30 a.m.: Getting to fault tolerant: policy for secure and resilient cloud computing

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wishes Alex would get the hint and stay in Europe for good.

We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who after working on her first NatSec Daily today we can never do without.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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