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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  One common concern people raised privately at the Aspen Security Forum is what former President Donald Trump's return to the White House would mean for Ukraine. | Lynne Sladky/AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi and Joseph Gedeon Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt ASPEN, Colo — NatSec Daily has heard about all kinds of topics and world figures at the Aspen Security Forum this week. But one issue no one wants to talk about is former President DONALD TRUMP and what it could mean if he returns to the White House. U.S. and foreign leaders, in power and out, get tongue-tied the moment reporters ask about the former president. Some switch to other topics. Others flat-out refuse to openly grapple with what the Republican frontrunner’s return could mean for the serious subjects discussed here in the Rockies. “I haven’t even begun to think about 2024,” declared STEPHEN BIEGUN, a deputy secretary of State during the first Trump administration. “I don’t do politics,” said STEPHEN HADLEY, a former national security adviser to then-President GEORGE W. BUSH. Asked if he was worried that Trump would withdraw the U.S. from NATO, U.K. Foreign Secretary JAMES CLEVERLY replied: “That’s one of those wonderful, wonderful questions that invites me to say something that gives you a good splash. Just letting you know: I’m not going to do that.” Many of the people in Aspen say they’re not here to engage in partisanship but rather to seek solutions to problems that require buy-in from both U.S. political parties and global allies. And few of the discussions on stage referenced Trump, and when they did, it was usually in the context of his last administration’s policies. But many of the issues being discussed, such as fighting climate change or protecting democracy, would likely go on the backburner in a new Trump era. One common concern people raised privately is what a Trump return would mean for Ukraine. The former president has well-known sympathies toward Russian strongman VLADIMIR PUTIN; his first impeachment resulted from his effort to halt military aid to Ukraine. There’s fear that Trump will simply stop U.S. military and economic help keeping the Ukrainians afloat as they fight the Kremlin. Read Alex and NAHAL TOOSI’s full story for more on the quiet rumblings about Trump.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | HANGING WITH TOM: NatSec Daily caught up with TOM TUGENDHAT, the U.K.’s minister of state for security, on the sidelines of the Aspen forum. Highlights from our conversation: Iran ‘a new form of state threat’: Yesterday, the U.K. foreign secretary said Britain has disrupted 15 attempts to murder or kidnap individuals in the island nation. Tugenhadt said it shows London is dealing with an “Iranian regime using actions that would be more normally associated with terrorist groups…what we're seeing is a new form of state threat.” We asked if the U.K. or its allies should continue to seek a renewed nuclear deal with Tehran. No one should be “doing anything to help the regime to claim that it has any form of legitimacy or sustainability,” he said. “We're dealing with a regime that has lost legitimacy abroad, has lost legitimacy at home.” U.K.-Apple spat: We asked Tugenhadt about Apple’s threat to remove the iMessage and FaceTime functions from the U.K. over a proposed change to a surveillance law that would give the government more access to encrypted communications. Tugenhadt says the change is needed to crack down on harm to children. “We've seen an expansion, sadly, of child sexual exploitation online over the last many years, and it's posing an increasing threat to many young people in our world,” he said. Asked if targeting tech companies was the way to do that, the minister replied: “There are many different ways in which we're going to look at this.” “It's not a question of cracking down on tech firms. It's a question of engaging with tech firms and finding ways to keep children safe,” he said, refusing repeatedly to comment on Apple’s statement. Asylum seekers to Rwanda: Britain is sending some asylum seekers to Rwanda to seek asylum there, in an effort London claims is to curtail people trafficking to the U.K. NatSec Daily asked why choose Rwanda — the East African country led by an autocrat. Tugenhadt defended the decision. “It's a nation that has welcomed refugees from around the region in various different ways, that has agreed to host and give various guarantees to refugees who would be sent there,” he told us. “I don't accept the way in which you're looking at it.” ‘NOT THINKING CLEARLY’: The American soldier who crossed into North Korea “may not have been thinking clearly,” Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH said at Aspen on Thursday, adding that she’s worried about his safety. Pvt. TRAVIS KING, who was headed back to the United States after spending time in a South Korean prison for assault, opted instead to cross the heavily armed border into repressive North Korea on Tuesday while he was part of a tour group. Washington has failed to make contact with Pyongyang since the incident. “He is a young soldier, he was facing consequences. I imagine he had a lot of negative feelings,” Wormuth told an audience at the forum. “He may not have been thinking clearly, frankly, but we just don’t know.” Wormuth added that she’s concerned for King’s safety due to North Korea’s history of mistreating American citizens — in some cases leading to death. “What we want to do is get that soldier back into our custody. I worry about him, frankly,” she said, noting how the North Koreans released college student Otto Warmbier in 2017 while he was in critical condition. He died in a hospital six days after his return to the United States. PRIGOZHIN’S BACK: The Wagner paramilitary group is back in action, launching joint drills with the Belarusian military before heading to Africa, the Associated Press reports. Wagner’s goal is to “make the Belarusian army the second strongest army in the world,” YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, the group’s chief, said in a video released Wednesday. It’s his first appearance since leading the failed rebellion, showing he ended up in Belarus (at least for this appearance). Polish Defense Minister MARIUSZ BLASZCZAK ordered his troops to move toward the border in response: “We must bear in mind that bringing a few thousand of Wagner’s forces into Belarus poses a threat to our country,” Blaszczak told a state radio station, adding that his move is “to show Russia that Poland’s border should not be crossed, that it would not pay off to attack Poland.” STOP FUNDING CHINA’S SPACE WORK: China shouldn’t get billions in foreign investment for its space program until it abides by accepted norms of behavior, United Launch Alliance President and CEO TORY BRUNO told NatSec Daily on the sidelines at Aspen. “What has fueled China's meteoric growth is about a half a trillion dollars of Western investment flowing into that country every single year,” he said. “There's no reason why investment in another country isn't conditional upon norms of behavior, and what we do in space and what we do here on Earth.” He said that China’s space program would suffer without foreign investment and, if the money dries up, could even start to contract within five years. However, Bruno is only “50-50” confident that the U.S. and its allies will do what he deems necessary to coerce China into becoming a positive actor in space and in the world. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | DESANTIS BACKS BLOCKADE: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS backed Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) months-long blockade on military nominations today, saying that the Pentagon’s abortion policy would “go out the window” if he wins the presidency, Matt reports. “They are using tax dollars. They’re funding abortion tourism, which is not an appropriate thing for the military to be doing,” DeSantis told radio host HUGH HEWITT. Asked if he thinks Tuberville should relent, DeSantis answered: “No, I don’t,” adding that “day one as commander-in-chief, that policy will go out the window.” As lawmakers fight over how to move forward, the GOP presidential candidate wants his party to dig in: “Our group of Republicans in the Congress should just take a stand on this. The DOD should stand down,” he said. “We have all these other problems in our military. We need more ammunition, we need more recruiting, we need all these other things and yet they’re focusing on abortion tourism.” Scroll down for more on Tuberville’s hold.
| | HAUGH EYE VIEW ON AI: Lt. Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH, Biden’s pick to lead the NSA and Cyber Command, warned today that generative artificial intelligence technologies will likely pose a major threat in next year’s U.S. presidential election, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports. “As we look at this election cycle, the area we do have to consider that will be slightly different is the role of generative AI as part of this, and so our concern is foreign use attempting to be a part of our electoral process,” Haugh, who currently serves as deputy commander of U.S. Cyber Command, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee during his nomination hearing. Haugh's remarks come as lawmakers in the House and Senate scramble to come up with ways to regulate and monitor the use of new AI technologies, amid heightened fears after hackers including from Russia have attempted to interfere in the last few U.S. elections. Read: DOJ to add top crypto sleuths to cybercrime office (for Pros!) by JOHN SAKELLARIADIS
| | BROWN’S STAMP OF APPROVAL: The Senate Armed Services Committee approved President JOE BIDEN's nominee to be Joint Chiefs chair, Air Force Gen. C.Q. BROWN, today amid the standoff over military promotions, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!). The panel also approved the pick to be the Army's top officer, Gen. RANDY GEORGE. But there's no clear path to their confirmation in the full Senate despite largely cruising through hearings this month as Tuberville continues his blockade. The number of general and flag officer picks in limbo as a result of the holdup is nearing 300. Tuberville's block is creating gaps at the top rungs of military leadership as officers leave posts when their terms end without a Senate-confirmed replacement.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | NORMALIZE ISRAEL RELATIONS: A bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill to bolster the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel following lawmakers’ critical comments of the nation. The Regional Integration and Normalization Act, introduced by SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) ranking member JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), as well as Sens. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.), JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.) and JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), would authorize a regional integration office to maintain stable relations with Israel and set up a $105 million fund to help advance regional integration among other efforts. After Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL’s (D-Wash.) called Israel a “racist state” over the weekend, she drew bipartisan condemnation before apologizing. With such a showing of support for Israel across the aisle, it seems likely that a bill aimed at drawing the partners closer would pass. UFO WITNESSES: DAVID GRUSCH, who made public claims about a secretive government UFO retrieval program, will testify as part of a long-anticipated House hearing next week on UFOs, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. Grusch claimed earlier this year that the U.S. government had “retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin.” In addition to Grusch, RYAN GRAVES, the executive director for Americans for Safe Aerospace, and DAVID FRAVOR, a former Navy pilot, are scheduled to testify at the hearing. “We’ve had a heck of a lot of pushback on this hearing. … There are a lot of people who don’t want this to come to light,” Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) told reporters today.
| | | |   | | | | | SWEDISH EMBASSY BURNED: Sweden’s embassy in Iraq was set ablaze by protestors overnight as the Swedish ambassador was expelled over a planned burning of the Quran in Stockholm, Reuters’ TIMOUR AZHARI, ANNA RINGSTROM and SUPANTHA MUKHERJEE report. While Baghdad condemned the attack on the embassy and vowed to maintain diplomatic relations, the Iraqi government “informed the Swedish government ... that any recurrence of the incident involving the burning of the Holy Qur’an on Swedish soil would necessitate severing diplomatic relations,” Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI said in a statement. The State Department condemned the protest in Iraq, calling it “an unlawful act of violence” in a statement, adding that it’s “unacceptable that Iraqi Security Forces did not act to prevent protestors from breaching the Swedish Embassy compound for a second time and damaging it.”
| | | | — ANDREAS MICHAELIS, currently the state secretary of the Federal Foreign Office, will become the new U.S. ambassador to Germany on Aug. 1. He succeeds EMILY HABER, who has served in the post since 2018.
| | | — NICOLAS CAMUT, POLITICO: Scoop! Why Ben from Ben & Jerry’s blames America for war in Ukraine — YUN SUN, Foreign Affairs: Why China won’t talk with America’s military — Editorial board, The Wall Street Journal: Next target for Ron DeSantis: the military
| | — The Brookings Institution, 10:30 a.m.: U.S. alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we never want to talk about. We also thank our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who is the centerpiece of all our conversations.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
