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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Alexander Ward | |  From national security adviser Jake Sullivan to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Biden administration will be strongly represented during the four-day Aspen Security Forum. | Pool Photo by Frederic J. Brown | With help from Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Your globe-trotting host is headed to the Aspen Security Forum tomorrow, even if Mrs. NatSec Daily is starting to wonder why the house is so empty. It’s a worthwhile trip, as a who’s who of U.S. and global national security officials and professionals descend on the Rockies to discuss some major issues. This year features a star-studded lineup that we hope face tough questions in rare public settings. From national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN to CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS, the Biden administration will be strongly represented during the four-day conference, as will some former Trump-era heavyweights like MARK ESPER and MIKE POMPEO. Foreign officials, namely British Foreign Secretary JAMES CLEVERLY, Canadian Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and NATO Deputy Secretary General MIRCEA GEOANĂ will also hop on stage before packed in-person and online audiences. ASF, as regulars call the gathering, usually features a handful of must-see speakers. But this iteration is particularly full of natsec A-listers, which will make the glitzy affair all the more important this week. It’s quite a time for the forum to take place: a successful NATO summit just ended in Lithuania, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has stalled, diplomacy between the U.S. and China has rekindled despite the Chinese hackers targeting the Commerce Secretary and other top American officials, and the first debates of the 2024 presidential election cycle start next month. But ANJA MANUEL, the executive director of ASF, told NatSec Daily that this conference was organized to focus more on the issues that aren’t always top of mind in Washington. “This conference is designed to include a lot about what we are not talking about every day,” she said in a Monday interview. That includes some obvious issues like the sudden rise of artificial intelligence, but also “we're going to talk about extremism. We're going to shake dated assumptions about the Middle East and Africa.” Manuel, who lives in Silicon Valley, particularly wants to further link the conversations between technologists there and policymakers in Washington. She noted how three different sessions will focus on deep fakes and their potential impact on elections and general society, the regulation of AI and the debate on the need for international treaties on emerging technologies. The one problem ASF (like other elite events) hasn’t solved is how to make these pointy-headed conversations permeate into the general public, especially as expertise is derided and the nation remains polarized. It’s unclear that the organization has a good plan for that, save for expecting reporters like yours truly to write on the events we witness. Manuel has a plea for all attendees this year, including your host: “I hope you'll listen carefully for some of the things that aren't sort of right in front of us with a news cycle every day.” Note: Because the Aspen Security Forum takes place in two time zones west of Washington, NatSec Daily will publish after its usual 4 p.m. ET slot to report on important events happening earlier in the day there, later here. Don’t fret, we’ll still show up in your inbox this week, but just a few hours later than usual.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | BREAKING: President JOE BIDEN invited Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to the United States. TAIWAN VP 'TRANSIT’ THRU U.S.: The Biden administration is preparing for potential Chinese government reprisals when Taiwan’s Vice President LAI CHING-TE stops in the U.S. ahead of his travels to and from Paraguay’s presidential inauguration next month, our own PHELIM KINE reports. Lai will transit in the U.S. to and from the Aug. 15 inauguration of Paraguayan President-elect SANTIAGO PEÑA, Taiwan’s Presidential Office confirmed today. Beijing “should not use as a pretext any transit by Vice President Lai for brazen coercion or other provocative activities [and it] should not be a pretext for interference in Taiwan’s election either,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters. Lai’s profile is doubly problematic for Beijing because he’s vying to replace outgoing President TSAI ING-WEN in the self-governing island’s January 2024 elections. He reinforced his tough-on-Beijing independence credentials earlier this year by declaring in January that Taiwan “ is already an independent and sovereign nation, and polling last month put Lai as the front-runner. He also said last week that elected leaders of Taiwan should be welcomed to the White House. GRAIN DEAL DEAD: Washington is pissed that Russia terminated the Black Sea Grain Initiative today, and Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN probably isn’t too thrilled with the news, either. “Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative will worsen food insecurity and harm millions of vulnerable people around the world,” National Security Council spokesperson ADAM HODGE said in a statement. He urged Moscow to “immediately reverse its decision.” The deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, allowed the safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea. Brokering the initiative was Erdoğan’s “crown jewel” in policy toward Russia, ALPER COŞKUN, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told NSD told NatSec Daily. “He will not be pleased by Russia's backtracking, but shouldn't be expected to immediately write the deal off. The Kremlin has vowed to return to the deal once its perceived shortcomings are addressed anyway,” Coşkun said. “That gives Erdoğan room to work with.” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said Moscow may reenter the deal when its demands are met, including allowing Russia to ship its own food and fertilizer to the world — though Russia has shipped record amounts of wheat even as the Kremlin has complained about shipping restrictions. Now, aid agencies are bracing for the impact of the deal’s end on global food prices, which they say will hit the world’s most vulnerable in food-insecure countries the hardest. "Russian intransigence puts this success [of the grain initiative] at risk and exposes Moscow’s willingness to use food as a weapon of war, leading to increases in the risk of famine, human suffering, and global food prices,” HFAC Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), ranking member GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and ranking member JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) said in a joint statement. Read: Russia kills off the Black Sea grain deal. What happens now? by SUSANNAH SAVAGE BRIDGE BLOWN UP: Ukraine claimed responsibility today for attacking a bridge linking Crimea to Russia, which happened hours before the Kremlin terminated the grain deal, CNN reports. The bridge, the longest in Europe, spans nearly a dozen miles and has been vital for Russia troops’ war efforts, as well as a personal project for Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. The explosion was a joint effort between Ukraine’s naval forces and security service, a Ukrainian security official told CNN. Two civilians were killed in the explosion, Russian officials said. FOR THE CHILDREN: POPE FRANCIS has dispatched a high-level emissary to speak directly with President Biden about the thousands of Ukrainian children Russia has forcibly displaced, a person familiar with the meeting told Alex and ADAM WREN. The Vatican announced today that Cardinal MATTEO ZUPPI is spending three days in the American capital, following his recent visits to Kyiv and Moscow. He is expected to meet with Biden at the White House on Tuesday, the person said. U.S. ambassador to the Vatican JOE DONNELLY will also be present at some of the cardinal’s meetings in Washington. Pope Francis has made alleviating the suffering of children his top issue of the war, namely the safe return of those who have been displaced by brutal fighting. He and his team are working with Ukraine, Russia and interested parties on a potential deal, though there’s no public indication that one will be reached soon. SEND ‘EM: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has ordered the deployment of a destroyer, F-35 and F-16 fighter jets to U.S. Central Command to deal with increased threats in the Strait of Hormuz, DOD’s spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters today. Iran has been targeting ships transiting the important waterway lately, leading the U.S. to increase its military presence in a clear deterrence message. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | WOULD TRUMP DEFEND TAIWAN?: It’s not entirely clear if DONALD TRUMP would support Taiwan with weapons and even troops if China opted to invade the democratic island. “I don't want to say it because if I'm in the position of president … it would put me in a very bad negotiating position,” Trump told Fox News when asked about defending Taiwan if it meant war with China. “With that being said, Taiwan did take all of our chips — as you know, we used to make our own chips now they're made in Taiwan.” Trump conceded that China’s semiconductor industry would become insurmountable if Beijing takes the island nation.
| | ‘SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON’: Acting Cyber Director KEMBA WALDEN apparently racked up too much personal debt to take the full-time job, and the cyber community is angry and confused, Matt reports in Weekly Cybersecurity. Walden withdrew her nomination from the cyber director job after U.S. officials told her that her personal debt load would complicate the nomination process in Congress, the Washington Post reported over the weekend. That’s an explanation that not all experts are buying. (The Record had reported earlier last week that she’d been told she was out of the running.) “There's something else going on, but they won't tell us what it is. It's a nice cover story, but it needs work,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ JAMES LEWIS told Matt. “If you’re going to start firing people because they have big mortgages, you’re going to depopulate Washington.” That sentiment was shared by cyber vets online, including CHRIS KREBS, Walden’s former boss while he was CISA director. He called the decision “a shame,” saying that her experience in CISA and work on the implementation plan shows that she’s “eminently qualified.”
| | ACCOUNTING ERROR: Pentagon officials made an “accounting error” while building a new military aid package for Taiwan, a defense official told LARA SELIGMAN. The same thing happened during preparations for a number of recent aid packages for Ukraine: officials miscalculated the value of equipment that was being sent. The error has since been resolved, the official said, but the package is still not finalized months after Defense Secretary Austin told lawmakers it was coming. Altogether, Congress authorized the president to draw down up to $1 billion worth of military aid to Taiwan in the 2023 defense budget. BIDEN COMMITTED TO F-16S FOR UKRAINE: National security adviser Sullivan was forced to respond to questions about whether the U.S. was committed to training Ukrainian fighter pilots, after our own LARA SELIGMAN and PAUL McLEARY reported on Friday that Europe was still waiting on the U.S. to formally approve the program. “The president has said we are going to meet whatever timeline our European partners need: today, tomorrow, the next day, it doesn't matter,” Sullivan told CNN on Sunday. “The United States will not be the hold up in ensuring that this F-16 training can get under way." In fact, Sullivan pointed a finger back across the Atlantic, noting that European partners need a few more weeks to put in place “the necessary training facilities.” While Sullivan did not commit to a specific timeline, the reiteration of support is music to the ears of the Ukrainians, who have said they urgently need fighter jets as they struggle to make gains against dug-in Russian positions.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | ‘VERY WORRIED’: McCaul says he’s “very worried” that conservative opposition to Ukraine aid will grow after dozens of House Republicans voted last week to cut aid off. “I can't think of a worse message to send to Putin than 70 members of the House voting [against] giving assistance to Ukraine,” the House Foreign Affairs Committee chair said at a Washington Post event today. “I personally thought it was irresponsible. I disagree with it. But every member is entitled to their own opinion. The concern comes after the House shot down five Republican-backed measures to curb aid to Ukraine through the National Defense Authorization Act. One from Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) failed by a 358-70 margin, with all Democrats and a majority of Republicans opposing the amendment. McCaul, who’s argued the Biden administration has been too slow with the aid, cited recent polling that 71 percent of Republicans support U.S. efforts. He called the size of the opposition last week “very disturbing” and said the vote, during Ukraine’s counteroffensive, was “very harmful and damaging.” He says he often asks his colleagues what President RONALD REAGAN — “The man who took down the Soviet Union” — would have done. “He fought for democracy, freedom and human rights. And that's what I believe my party, the Republican Party, should still stand for,” McCaul said. By September, the administration will ask Congress to approve a new package of assistance, McCaul said, predicting it could be bundled with aid for Israel and Taiwan.
| | | ISRAEL ‘NOT RACIST’: Criticism of Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL’s (D-Wash.) characterization of Israel as a “racist” state continued today with Republicans and Democrats bashing the Congressional Progressive Caucus chair. “In a matter of 3 days, two members of the United States Congress showed America and the world their antisemitism. This is unacceptable! @IlhanMN, @PramilaJayapal, and the Radical Left would rather defend terrorists than our Nation’s most cherished ally, Israel!” GOP presidential candidate MIKE PENCE tweeted. Rep. JIM COSTA (D-Calif.) chimed in, calling her comments “false, harmful, and totally inappropriate.” Jayapal backtracked after making the comment, saying that “words do matter … and so it is important that I clarify my statement. I do not believe the idea of Israel as a nation is racist,” our own DAVID COHEN reported Sunday night. In a rare rebuke, House Democratic leaders, including Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.), issued a joint statement rejecting Jayapal’s initial remarks. “Israel is not a racist state. As House Democratic leaders, we strongly support Israel’s right to exist as a homeland for the Jewish people,” but, they added, “there are individual members of the current Israeli governing coalition with whom we strongly disagree.”
| | | — After COLIN KAHL’s last day as Pentagon undersecretary for policy, deputy undersecretary for policy on Friday, SASHA BAKER is doing Kahl’s former job on an acting basis. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities MARA KARLIN is performing the duties of the deputy undersecretary for policy. — ANDREA GOLDSTEIN is now principal deputy assistant secretary for administration at HHS. She most recently was acting director of force resiliency at the Department of the Navy. — DANE HUGHES is now a professional staff member for the House Armed Services Committee. He most recently was director of strategy at Research Innovations Inc. and is a Trump DOD alum.
| | — TERRY GOU, The Washington Post: Taiwan must not walk away from years of agreements with China — Sen. DICK DURBIN, Just Security: Biden must act on landmark U.N. special rapporteur Guantanamo report –– Sen. ROGER WICKER, The Wall Street Journal: The U.S. Navy needs more attack submarines
| | | |   | | | | | — The Hudson Institute, 8 a.m.: Achieving spectrum superiority with the Congressional Electromagnetic Warfare Working Group — Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation Subcommittee, 9 a.m.: Man and machine: artificial intelligence on the battlefield — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 9 a.m.: The economic and national security impact of offshoring cryptocurrency — Nuclear Threat Initiative, 10 a.m.: 2023 NTI nuclear security index launch — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: The geopolitics of transatlantic policymaking on artificial intelligence — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Achieving peace through strength in the Indo-Pacific: examining the FY2024 budget priorities — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Strategic Competition in the Arctic — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: The Biden administration and the Middle East — House Oversight and Accountability Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Government Innovation Subcommittee, 1 p.m.: Getting nowhere: DoD's failure to replace the defense travel system — House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Stability and security in the Western Balkans: assessing U.S. policy — Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2 p.m.: Iran’s terror proxies on Israel’s borders — Center for a New American Security, 3 p.m.: Book launch for “By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations and Strategy” Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who gets no one to engage in the conversations she starts. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the most engaging person we know.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
