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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  As leaders from more than 40 countries met in Jeddah, Russia bombed a blood transfusion center in Ukraine, an act Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called a “war crime.” | Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP Photo | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt So more than 40 countries discussed the prospects for peace in Ukraine this past weekend and for now they’re mostly staying quiet about the details of those discussions. The official readouts of the gathering in Jeddah are roughly what was expected. Officials from Kyiv said it was productive and that all the nations around the table, including China, agreed that a future deal must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia, which didn’t attend, called the event a doomed attempt to rally the world behind VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and his people. The Guardian, citing an EU official, said China supports another similar session, which if it happens would be the third overall when added to the one earlier this summer in Copenhagen. NatSec Daily tried to get an inside view of what actually went down in the seaside Saudi city. We got some comments from a senior administration official, but they’re so bland that we would normally not share them with you except that the blandness, in this case, is instructive. “It was a good and constructive set of conversations with a range of countries who came together to exchange views and build common ground,” the official said. “We were glad that more than 40 countries attended the talks and benefited from the chance to hear directly from Ukraine about the war and to exchange views.” While such statements wouldn’t normally require anonymity, the official insisted on anonymity to detail sensitive negotiations. Even on China’s involvement, which was a big deal, the official insisted the U.S. was “glad” that Beijing attended “and that they participated in the session in a constructive way.” In other words, the session appears to have resulted in little in terms of deliverables. “There should be few expectations that such a summit will lead to tangible impacts in the near term when it comes to a ceasefire, much less a political resolution,” said EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY, an expert on Ukraine, Russia and China at the New Lines Institute. But, he added, showing that there’s support for Kyiv within the Global South “could improve Kyiv's negotiating position vis-a-vis Moscow in the medium to longer term.” The talks, then, weren’t fruitless. It’s hard to get representatives from 40 nations on the same page about anything, let alone a major conflict. And it’s likely that some progress was made, even if it was getting opposing viewpoints heard and better understood. “This was risky and could have gone badly. Meaning, with China present, this could have moved in the direction of pushing for a settlement on Russia's terms. Instead, Ukraine seems to have secured reiteration of the commitment to sovereignty and initial buy-in to its peace plan,” said ALINA POLYAKOVA, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis. But, at this point, it’s hard to say that the war is closer to an end today than it was before the forum. We asked that question of the official but never heard back. As the leaders met, Russia bombed a blood transfusion center in Ukraine, an act Zelenskyy called a “war crime.” Meanwhile, ANDRIY YERMAK, a top aide to the Ukrainian leader, wrote on Telegram that he met in Saudi Arabia with U.S. national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN about further protecting Ukraine and that the American “positively assessed” the multinational peace talks.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century security network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | ZELENSKYY ASSASSINATION PLOT: Ukraine’s security services detained an alleged Russian informant who was gathering information about Zelenskyy’s travel plans in the Mykolaiv region for a “massive air strike” last month, our own LAURA HÜLSEMANN reports. The foiled plot comes a day after Moscow launched another wave of missile and drone attacks in western Ukraine, with six people killed in shelling between warring troops, the Associated Press reported. A failed drone attack near Moscow also caused its second-largest airport to briefly suspend flights. As both sides trade aerial attacks and intense fighting on the frontlines continues, Ukrainian forces are ripping through about 90,000 shells a month, U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal’s ISABEL COLES. Kyiv is years away from being able to produce enough ammo on its own to meet its current needs, Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries OLEKSANDR KAMYSHIN told WSJ. THE GUNS OF AUGUST: West African leaders will meet Thursday in Abuja, Nigeria to discuss next steps after a deadline from the Economic Community of West African States for Niger to relinquish power and return ousted President MOHAMED BAZOUM to office expired, according to AP’s SAM MEDNICK. An ECOWAS intervention would likely unleash chaos in West Africa, as we discussed last week. Neither ECOWAS nor Niger and the Wagner-affiliated Sahel states have the capacity to wage and win a full-scale war. But diplomatic options have broken down and both sides have readied themselves for the outbreak of a war, as Eric explained in this morning’s Global Insider. IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | ‘LETHAL FORCE’ AGAINST MIGRANTS: Because cartels are “basically foreign terrorist organizations,” using "lethal force" against them is justified, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said on Sunday. When pressed on how authorities would be able to distinguish between cartel members and others crossing the border during the night, DeSantis told NBC News’ DASHA BURNS that the answer is simple. "Same way a police officer would know," he said. "Same way somebody operating in Iraq would know. You know, these people in Iraq at the time, they all looked the same. You didn’t know who had a bomb strapped to them. So those guys have to make judgments." PENCE TALKS TOUGH: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE minced no words today about Russia and China, calling the two a “new Axis” and saying the two countries “threaten to conquer their neighbors” in a tweet today. Pence’s comments follow a report from WSJ’s MICHAEL GORDON and NANCY YOUSSEF that Russia and China sent a naval patrol of 11 ships to Alaska last week, prompting the U.S. to send four destroyers and P-8 Poseidon aircraft to the state. The patrol is not the first — in September, a flotilla of seven Russian and Chinese ships carried out military exercises near the Aleutian Islands, off Alaska’s western coast. Alaska, with its rich oil and gas resources, access to the Arctic and proximity to Russia, has become an important part of the U.S.’ Arctic and northern climes strategy. RFKJ’S NATO QUESTIONS: Democratic presidential candidate ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. torched President JOE BIDEN for “escalating the war” in Ukraine and pushed back against those supporting Ukraine’s push to join NATO. “Is having Ukraine in NATO worth even the slightest risk of a nuclear winter killing 99% of the people living in the United States today?” Kennedy tweeted Sunday night, listing several rhetorical questions to make his point. It’s worth noting that while Biden has expressed his support of Ukraine joining the bloc, he recently said that won’t happen anytime soon. “Tell me, President Biden, how is it worth all this to fight a war that could have ended a month after it began?” he said.
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | | HACKING MOSCOW’S MISSILES: North Korean hackers secretly infiltrated computer networks at a major Russian missile developer for five months, Reuters’ JAMES PEARSON and CHRISTOPHER BING report. The hackers were able to bypass security measures to quietly access the networks at NPO Mashinostroyeniya, a rocket design bureau on the outskirts of Moscow. It wasn't immediately clear what data was taken or what information hackers were able to access. While the stealthy breach is likely to anger Russia, it demonstrates how North Korea would even target its allies in pursuit of critical technologies.
| | | | TANK U, NEXT: The last of the initial batch of 31 Abrams tanks the U.S. is sending to Ukraine was approved for shipment over the weekend, and will be in Ukraine by “early fall” Army acquisition chief DOUG BUSH confirmed Monday. “They are done. Now they have to get to Europe and then to Ukraine, along with all of the things that go with them: ammunition, spare parts, fuel, equipment, prepared facilities,” Bush told a group of reporters in the Pentagon. Ukrainian troops have already been trained in Germany on how to use the Abrams tanks, but none have made it to Ukraine to take part in the counteroffensive. The timeline for when the eagerly awaited shipment of the tanks to Ukraine is consistent with a recent POLITICO report that said they would be in the country by September. The U.S. is sending older M1A1 models instead of the more modern A2 version, which would have taken a year to get to Ukraine. Bush also confirmed that the Biden administration is “working on a package for Congress to consider this fall,” for more military aid for Ukraine. He said that “details of that still have to be set by the Office of Management Budget but I think we have a very strong case to hopefully garner congressional support for continued funding for munitions, production increases, and munitions buys to support Ukraine. ”Since the start of the war, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with over $43 billion in security assistance. According to the latest Pentagon fact sheet on U.S. military aid for Ukraine, there is $5.4 billion left in the account that reimburses the armed forces for weapons drawn from their own stockpiles to send to Kyiv, and another $2.2 billion left under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which puts weapons and equipment on contract for Ukraine.
| | ‘COULD NEVER DIG OURSELVES OUT’: As Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.) heads to the Indo-Pacific to bolster relations, she expects the issue of TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) holds on military nominees to be raised in conversations with leaders. “I'm sure that it will come up,” she told reporters before leaving for the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, adding that it’s impossible for the Senate to confirm nominees one at a time like Tuberville has suggested: “We could never dig ourselves out of this hole without for Tuberville actually dropping his hold on the promotions.” On military relations in the region, delegations from Indo-Pacific nations have told Duckworth “we want you here. Don't make us choose between the PRC and the United States, but we don't want you to be absent either,” she said, adding that she’ll also be focusing on environmental and economic initiatives. FUND MY BABY ONE MORE TIME: Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) is leading a bipartisan letter to urge Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to raise the salary cap for DOD child care workers in order to attract more of them and expand services for military families. Warren, the SASC Personnel Subcommittee chair, and Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.), its ranking member, signed the letter, with Sen. TED BUDD (R-N.C.), who is also on the subcommittee. The lawmakers cited testimony in March from the Pentagon’s personnel chief, GIL CISNEROS, that DOD child care centers have struggled to attract workers, and that wages — which are capped at $55,000 per year — are a factor. Because more than 11,000 children are on waitlists for care, some military parents must commute hours each day for child care so they can get to work, and the waiting lists for some child care centers are six to seven months long, the lawmakers wrote. REED IN THE BALKANS: Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) is in the Balkans this week, making stops in Kosovo as tensions flare between the fledgling nation and its neighbor, Serbia. Reed will also visit the U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command.
| | | |   | | | | | BEANTOWN BEATDOWN: The Boston Globe’s editorial board attacked Democratic Massachusetts Reps. SETH MOULTON and JAKE AUCHINCLOSS today for voting in favor of a defense bill amendment meant to limit how race and racism are discussed at K-12 schools operated by the military. Under the bill, the Pentagon wouldn’t be allowed to spend money on programs that promote the teaching of “so-called critical race theory,” the board wrote. That included the ideas that the U.S. or founding documents are fundamentally racist, that any race is superior to another or that anyone is responsible for the actions committed by another member of their race. “By voting for the text of this amendment, the two lent credence to the subtext — the belief that America-hating ideologues are poisoning minds in the nation’s schools,” the board wrote. On their responses: “Auchincloss dodged questions from the Globe. Moulton said he judges each amendment on its merits, and given that he agreed that the tenets the amendment mentioned shouldn’t be taught, he supported it.”
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: BRIAN VOLSKY is joining Foreign Policy for America as its diplomacy policy adviser. He previously worked in the Office of Inspector General at the State Department. — BRETT ALEXANDER is Firefly Aerospace’s chief revenue officer. He was previously Blue Origin's vice president of government sales.
| | — JONAS SANDBRINK, Vox: ChatGPT could make bioterrorism horrifyingly easy — JONATHAN LORD, Breaking Defense: Washington’s security strategy in Iraq was deep-frozen. This week might bring an overdue thaw. — ROGER COHEN, The New York Times: Putin’s forever war
| | — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: Democracy derailed: Sudan's precarious information environment. — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 2 p.m.: Space resiliency: leveraging commercial innovation to advance the mission. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has never said anything substantive. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who only spits gems.
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