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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  For Victoria Coates, a former Trump administration official and adviser to Sen. Ted Cruz, nearly every issue has a China component. | Victoria Coates/MBN | With help from Jordain Carney Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt When VICTORIA COATES takes over the Heritage Foundation’s Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy on Tuesday, she will push her team to consider the China angle to, well, “everything.” “My charge to the rest of Davis is that everything has to be filtered through the lens of what we're dealing with, with the People’s Republic of China, and it's going to be generational,” she told NatSec Daily in an interview. For Coates, a former Trump administration official and adviser to Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), nearly every issue has a China component. Whether it’s technology investments, military improvements or border enforcement, there’s a vulnerability she fears Beijing can and will exploit. Coates is particularly interested in how to get the Department of Energy to play a more active role in the competition with China. “Given what's in it –– the high technology, the national labs –– getting it onto a much more aggressive, forward-leaning posture, will require changes to its governing statute. That’s some very worthy work we can get done over the next year,” she said. But the question that lingers over Coates’ upcoming tenure, and Heritage in general, is will she push her team into the RONALD REAGAN or DONALD TRUMP lane? The conservative think tank historically has leaned toward the Reagan-esque, “peace through strength” side on national security policy. But of late, especially under President KEVIN ROBERTS, Heritage is turning into a Trump administration-in-waiting. Coates said the legacy of Reagan at the foundation remains “very, very strong,” but “a lot of conservatives looked at what they were seeing as a problem with Republican establishment foreign policy approaches, maybe best personified by JOHN McCAIN –– and that that was not necessarily where we wanted to go.” The new director wants to forge a “third way,” as Roberts has termed it. “I'm not a dove. I'm not a hawk. I'm an owl,” Coates told us. “We are in no way isolationist. We believe in having a very strong America –– projecting power abroad –– that is maybe the best thing we can do for the world. We just, I think, are going to be very conservative about how we deploy it.” (Coates has a personal challenge coin of an owl fitted with the Heritage Foundation’s logo of a bell that reads: “Wise. Deadly. Can See In The Dark.”) A person Coates hired to help her in the new job is ROBERT GREENWAY, who was her deputy in the Trump NSC and current executive director of the Abraham Accords Peace Institute. (“Trump’s NSC comes to Heritage!” Coates joked.) As her senior adviser, Greenway will essentially be Coates’ No. 2 and focus on Pentagon, intelligence community and Middle East issues. Coates aims to build a policy and intellectual framework for any Republican candidate who emerges victorious in next year’s presidential election. She noted how few expected Trump to win in 2016, and so “we were not prepared to properly support him.” This time around, she said, “we want to right that wrong and make sure we can play the sort of role we played in the Reagan years as an institution that can start to produce these things.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | BREAKING: President JOE BIDEN has determined that Colorado Springs will be the permanent headquarters of U.S. Space Command, reversing a Trump administration decision to move it to Alabama, according to two people with knowledge of the ruling, our own JOE GOULD reports. The decision will only intensify a bitter parochial battle on Capitol Hill, as members of the Colorado and Alabama delegations have spent months accusing each other of playing politics on the future of the four-star command. WHAT’S IN A COUP?: The Biden administration still isn’t ready to characterize the overthrow of Niger’s president last week as a coup, knowing that doing so could trigger an end to U.S. security aid to a country that’s key to battling terrorism and curbing Russian influence in Africa, our own NAHAL TOOSI and LARA SELIGMAN report. “We haven't made a determination yet because it is still an ongoing fluid situation. It is clear that there has been an attempt to remove [Niger President MOHAMED BAZOUM] from office. It's not yet clear that the attempt will ultimately be successful,” State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters today. His remarks follow West African leaders’ threats to take military action against the new faction that overthrew Bazoum if they don’t restore the country’s democratic government within a week. If that doesn’t happen, “we will take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. Such measures may include the use of force,” heads of the Economic Community of West African States, which includes 15 members, wrote in a statement on Sunday. Read: What Niger’s coup means for Nigeria by Eric ‘NO OTHER WAY OUT’: Russian strikes on residential buildings in Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih killed five people today, the New York Times’ MARC SANTORA reports. On Sunday, Zelenskyy had said “the war is returning” to Russia following a string of Ukrainian attacks in the country. His comments came as former Russian President DMITRY MEDVEDEV said today that Russia would use nukes if Ukraine captures Russian territory as part of its counteroffensive, our own VARG FOLKMAN reported. “There would simply be no other way out,” Medvedev, deputy chair of the Russian National Security Council and ally of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, posted on X. With the prospect of negotiations between the warring sides appearing unlikely anytime soon, Russian officials said they don’t know what’s going to be discussed during the peace talks Saudi Arabia plans to host with Ukraine, Western nations and key developing nations next month — but they want to find out. “Russia will follow this meeting. We need to understand what goals are set and what will be discussed. Any attempt to promote a peaceful settlement deserves a positive evaluation,” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters, per Reuters’ GARETH JONES. MORE CIVILIAN BOMBINGS: Myanmar’s military again extended its state of emergency today as it ramps up bombings on civilians in its own country, the New York Times’ HALEY WILLIS and WEIYI CAI report. About twice as many military airstrikes were reported in April, May and June compared to the first three months of the year, according to data analyzed by the Times. Many of those attacks impacted civilians, with experts saying that the goal is to punish them for any perceived support of the opposition. Extending the stay of emergency further delays elections that the military promised to hold when it took over the country’s government in 2021, the AP reports. The military said it needs more time to prepare for the elections, with the extension lasting six months. ICYMI — Italy intends to leave China’s Belt and Road Initiative, defense minister says by our own VARG FOLKMAN. IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | NIKKI’S NEW CHINA PLAN: GOP presidential candidate NIKKI HALEY’s campaign rolled out new several natsec-related measures today that she’d take to counter China if she’s elected president, Fox News’ ADAM SHAW reports: Tech ban: Haley would call for a ban on states and cities from using taxpayer money to purchase Chinese technology, like drones used by police. She’d plan on replacing Chinese drones being used with American ones. Fighting fentanyl: To combat the fentanyl epidemic, Haley would block instant messaging and payment apps that Chinese and Mexican criminals use, as well as “end loopholes in U.S customs rules,” Fox News reports. The details about both measures, and how exactly they’d be implemented, weren't immediately clear. Spy balloon: A Haley administration would also call for Washington to pull out of the Scientific and Technological Cooperation, an agreement to cooperate on a range of scientific fields, which is set to expire soon but could be renewed by the White House. Her campaign cited the Chinese spy balloon incident as the impetus for the potential measure. PENCE: BRING BACK THE TRANS MILITARY BAN: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE would reinstate the ban on military service by transgender individuals should he get the top job in 2024. "Look, we have people of every background, of every race and creed and color and persuasion in the military today," Pence told reporters Saturday in Nevada, per the Des Moines Register’s STEPHEN GRUBER-MILLER. "But having transgender personnel, I believe, erodes unit cohesion in a very unique way." "I believe it affects recruitment," Pence continued. "I believe all this politically correct nonsense that’s going on at the Pentagon is affecting recruitment in the United States military.” Experts say the main reasons for a drop in recruitment are the end of the war in Afghanistan, a surge in mental health conditions during the pandemic that have made more potential troops ineligible for service, military families increasingly steering loved ones away from volunteering and all-time lows in confidence in the military (more on that below). President Joe Biden reversed the Trump administration’s transgender military ban five days into his presidency.
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | | 702 RECS: A presidential advisory board is recommending new limits to the FBI’s authority under Section 702, a controversial surveillance authority that will expire without action from Congress by the end of the year, our own JORDAIN CARNEY writes in. In a report released today, the president's Intelligence Advisory Board advised that the attorney general be directed to remove the FBI’s authority to conduct queries “for evidence of a non-national security-related crime in its Section 702 data.” The White House hasn’t committed to accepting the report, which includes a total of 13 recommendations for Biden, though a senior administration official praised the board’s work and pledged to review it during a call with reporters. The suggestion is a far cry from what some bipartisan privacy hawks are floating on Capitol Hill: requiring the FBI to get a warrant to use any data collected under the authority — which is meant to enable electronic surveillance of foreigners abroad. The board warned where there is a warrant requirement would impact the ability to find threats against the U.S. Congress is considering a host of changes to Section 702 as it weighs whether to renew the authority when it expires at the end of the year. The board also recommended a “more rigorous” pre-approval process for U.S. person queries that would span across agencies and a compliance officer who would ensure 702 was used appropriately in each field office and at FBI headquarters. CHINA STRIKES BACK: China announced new export restrictions on drone-related equipment, according to Reuters, the latest escalation in tensions with the U.S. over access to technology. The restrictions, which take effect Sept. 1, will limit the export of drone engines, lasers, communication and anti-drone equipment and are expected to affect both civilian and military drones. The move from Beijing follows an announcement from Japan last week that it would impose restrictions on chip-making equipment, better aligning Japan and the U.S.’s semiconductor policies.
| | | |   | | | | | ELECTRIC AIR TAXI: Archer Aviation will deliver up to six of its Midnight electric air taxis to the Air Force under two contracts with a total value of $142 million, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The San Jose-based company will deliver the aircraft for the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Agility Prime program, aimed at helping the Air Force decide whether to adopt electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. Archer says it’s been working on the program since 2021. MINIHAN MEANS IT: Air Force Gen. MICHAEL MINIHAN “wasn’t being cutesy” when he predicted earlier this year that the United States could see conflict with China within a couple years. “There can be no ambiguity on what my expectations are,” Minihan told the Washington Post’s DAN LAMOTHE. “I’m not trying to be somebody that I’m not, nor am I trying to use theater or a pedestal. I’m simply trying to make sure that my command is ready to win if called upon.” His comments raised eyebrows and ruffled some feathers in the Pentagon, but a defense official said Minihan still retains the confidence of senior leaders: “When we lose trust in leaders, we remove them from command,” the official told WaPo.
| | | | STINKING UP THE SUMMER: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) abortion-related blockade of military promotions is uncomfortably splintering both the Senate GOP and Alabama Republicans. Now they’ll spend the summer stewing about it, our own BURGESS EVERETT and OLIVIA BEAVERS report. While conservatives are mainly cheering the football coach-turned senator on, there are signs that some Republicans are having a hard time accepting the one-man blockade. Summing up the feeling back in Alabama, Rep. JERRY CARL (R-Ala.) observed: “Mixed emotions.” “Some people like it, some people don’t understand it. Some of our older military folks aren’t really happy about it; they understand it better than anybody,” Carl said. The episode is in some ways a microcosm of the GOP as a whole, as the party weighs how far to take its opposition to Biden and his policies heading into a presidential election. In this case, a single member is using scorched-earth tactics to fight the Biden administration over abortion policy, leaving other Republicans to answer for it.
| | | RECORD LOW: Public confidence in the U.S. military continues to decline, reaching its lowest point in over two decades, our own CHRISTINE MUI reports. According to a new Gallup poll, only 60 percent of Americans expressed “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the military in a recent Gallup poll conducted from June 1 to June 22. That’s down from 64 percent who said the same last year. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, military confidence shot up and remained high at mostly above 70 percent for two decades before dipping to 69 percent in 2021. The confidence level has further declined since then — potentially linked to the U.S.’s rocky exit from Afghanistan.
| | — WANG HOUBIN, former deputy commander of China’s navy, was named the new head of the armed force overseeing the nation's conventional and nuclear missile arsenal, Reuters’ RYAN WOO reports. — CRYSTAL SUNG has been promoted to legislative aide in Rep. NANCY PELOSI’s (D-Calif.) office and will have a national security portfolio. She was previously a legislative correspondent and staff assistant for the former House speaker.
| | — JOSHUA YAFFA, The New Yorker: Inside the Wagner Group’s armed uprising — Rep. CHIP ROY and VICTORIA COATES, National Review: The deadly costs of Biden’s Israel policy — BRADY AFRICK, The Washington Post: See how Ukraine is paying the price for allies’ hesitation
| | — The Women’s Foreign Policy Group, 10 a.m.: Relief, recovery, restabilization: addressing the crisis in Yemen. — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11 a.m.: Digital chatter - the growing challenge of mis/disinformation. — The Air and Space Forces Association, 1 p.m.: Discussion on matters involving joint and combined Total Force integration, utilization, health of the force, and joint development for enlisted personnel. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Discussion about Bethany Allen’s book, Beijing rules: how China weaponized Its economy to confront the world. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we think looks like an owl. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who whooooooooo…..whooooooooo.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
