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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  The question now is what will become of the hired-gun empire Yevgeny Prigozhin left behind. | Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Programming note: NatSec Daily will not be publishing from Aug. 28 through Sept. 4. We’ll be back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Sept. 5. Don’t miss us too much. There’s been such an avalanche of YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN news that, before we head out for a week, we thought it best to catch you up on the latest developments. The current consensus from U.S. and European officials is that Prigozhin’s suspected demise is a short-term win for VLADIMIR PUTIN. As Alex, NAHAL TOOSI and LILI BAYER reported Thursday, the Russian president can use this moment to consolidate power and tamp down internal rivalries. But down the line, questions about the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine will persist, and the whispers in Moscow won’t go away. The largest crack in Putin’s regime may have been papered over with Prigozhin’s death, but it still remains there, lying untreated underneath. More immediately, U.S. officials and other experts are increasingly confident that Prigozhin was deliberately killed and that the plane carrying him didn’t explode by accident. JEFF GUZZETTI, a former federal aerial accident investigator, told The Washington Post yesterday that the “catastrophic” aviation failure “just does not happen unless there’s some sort of trigger to it.” An on-board bomb, an intentional weakening of the plane’s structure or other sabotage that led fuel tanks to explode, among other things, could’ve downed the plane. What does seem clear is Moscow doesn’t want a real investigation of the incident. Videos circulating online showed crews dragging large pieces of the fallen plane through tough terrain, likely damaging evidence that could’ve been recovered. Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV called any allegations that Putin ordered Prigozhin’s killing “an absolute lie” today. Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO added separately, "I cannot imagine that Putin did it, that Putin is to blame.” We note the first comment is a flat-out denial while the second is not. (Peskov also said it was unclear if Putin would attend Prigozhin’s funeral, citing the president’s “busy schedule.") If Prigozhin was a dead man walking, he certainly didn’t act like it toward the end. The Wall Street Journal has an excellent report on the Wagner Group chief’s last days, during which he tried to salvage the mercenary outfit’s business in Africa while Russia worked to wrest control of it following the mutiny. In recent interviews with Meduza, Wagner members expressed shock at how nonchalant Prigozhin was. “It’s his own fault, he was traveling all over Russia!” one said. Another painted an extraordinary scene that took place shortly after the rebellion. When Putin summoned Prigozhin and his commander, “the president yelled at the whole lot of them for three hours. Straight up yelled.” But when Putin let Prigozhin walk free right after, “he considered himself indestructible. He decided that he was immortal,” the Wagner fighter said. The question now is what will become of the hired-gun empire Prigozhin left behind. The U.K. Ministry of Defence released intelligence Friday stating his death “would almost certainly have a deeply destabilizing effect on the Wagner Group. His personal attributes of hyper-activity, exceptional audacity, a drive for results and extreme brutality permeated Wagner and are unlikely to be matched by any successor.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | UKRAINE CORRUPTION SCANDAL: A pair of top Ukrainian officials have been named as suspects in an embezzlement scheme uncovered by anti-corruption authorities this week, involving the procurement of humanitarian aid, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. Ukraine’s first deputy minister of agrarian policy and food and the former deputy minister of economy reportedly misappropriated more than $1.6 million, the Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities found. In one instance, the first deputy minister of agrarian policy purchased food at prices two to three times higher than market value through a business, which in turn bought the products at market value from a Polish manufacturer. Ukraine has long been plagued by corruption, and scandals have continued to surface since the war with Russia started — prompting worries among lawmakers about potential misuse of Western funds pouring into the country. In January, two major corruption scandals centered on government procurement of military catering services and electrical generators rattled the country’s leadership. KYIV’S MASSIVE STRIKE: Russian officials said Ukraine fired a missile toward Moscow and 42 drones at Crimea today, a strike that would be one of Kyiv’s largest aerial attacks on Russia-held territory to date, Reuters’ LIDIA KELLY reports. Moscow’s defense ministry said a modified S-200 missile was shot down outside over the Kaluga region, about 124 miles from the capital. Ukraine didn’t comment on the matter, which is usual following such attacks. Nine of the drones were destroyed by air defense over Crimea, Russia said, while 33 were taken down by electronic warfare and crashed over the annexed territory. PROBING POISONINGS: Speaking of dying under mysterious circumstances, the FBI and German investigators are looking into the possible poisonings of two Russian journalists and a Russian activist. People familiar with the investigations told The Wall Street Journal’s JIMMY VIELKIND that the three women had produced work critical of the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine. Each reported suddenly becoming ill — with symptoms including abdominal pain, headaches and fatigue — while outside of Russia. None of the women or authorities have evidence that they were poisoned or if their cases are linked, and it’s unclear what agent might’ve been used or who was responsible, the people said. But such poisonings aren’t uncommon for Russia, which has a long history of targeting dissenters abroad. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring our very own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL, who recently joined our little team and we think you should get to know. He’s had a soft spot for Chilean reds ever since he visited some wineries in Chile’s Maipo Valley, and you’ll often find him enjoying a glass of Carménère or Pinot Noir at dinner with friends and family. Whenever Eric gets homesick, he likes to stop by Casta’s, a Cuban rum bar in the West End, where he’ll enjoy a Mojito or get a pitcher of the Havana Vice, a mix of a piña colada and a strawberry daiquiri. They go perfectly, he tells us, with a Cuban sandwich or some pieces of fried pork. Cheers, Eric!
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here. | | | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.
| | DUNKING ON VIVEK: GOP presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY has caught flak in recent days for his controversial foreign policy takes, with the latest attacks coming from an influential institution in the race: conservative media. During a spat on Fox & Friends this morning, Ramaswamy was besieged with questions about his lack of support for Ukraine and proposal to use the war as an opportunity to sever the Russia-China relationship. “You will never separate them, ever,” presenter BRIAN KILMEADE bluntly told Ramaswamy. On his proposal to end aid to Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion, Kilmeade asked if he would “just give them 20 percent of the country.” Ramaswamy dodged. The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board also took shots Thursday night, saying that it’s important to take the implications of the candidate’s foreign policy “more seriously than Mr. Ramaswamy apparently has,” adding that “his venture into foreign policy may be bold but it’s also glib and reckless. It will not help him get to the White House.” Gaining the favor of conservative media can help bolster a Republican candidate’s campaign, as DONALD TRUMP’s past presidential campaigns showed. For now, it appears that Ramaswamy has some work to do if he wants to get back on their good side. WHAT HURD HEARD: While former Texas Rep. WILL HURD didn’t make the debate stage, the longshot candidate watched it alongside our own KATHY GILSINAN and, predictably, he had some thoughts on his opponents’ natsec views. When RON DeSANTIS proposed that Europe provide more aid to Ukraine while the U.S. curbs its own, Hurd said, “This is where having someone that has zero foreign policy experience potentially being commander in chief is a scary thing.” Among the most vocal candidates when it comes to supporting Ukraine, Hurd also bashed Ramaswamy for saying that the war isn’t a priority for Washington: “Nobody wants Ukraine to be a forever war, and the way to prevent it from being a forever war is to help the Ukrainians win.”
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SUING KEITH: A federal judge has cleared the way for shareholders to sue former National Security Agency director KEITH ALEXANDER and his cybersecurity firm IronNet CyberSecurity over the company's handling of earnings projections and his own stock sales as an insider, according to court documents obtained by our own DANIEL LIPPMAN. U.S. District Judge ROSSIE ALSTON has rejected a motion by the company to dismiss the suit, and the court has given the respondents, who also include former IronNet CEOs JAMES GERBER and WILLIAM WELCH, until mid-September to officially respond to the allegations. IronNet said in May that its "Collective Defense" platform derives more than 80 percent of revenue from Amazon-related business; Alexander sits on the Amazon board and its audit committee. Lawyers for IronNet argued last October in their motion to dismiss that “plaintiffs make scattershot allegations” inferring “fraud by hindsight” and that their case should not be allowed to proceed because “no one has a crystal ball. Predicting financial results is always uncertain. Companies know that. Investors know that.” IronNet told NatSec Daily that the company doesn't comment on current litigation. Alexander, Gerber, Welch and their lawyers didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. QUIET QUITTING AI: Starting today, 19 of the world’s largest social media companies, e-commerce platforms and search engines will be required to comply with the Digital Services Act — a European Union online content law that enforces transparency, anti-disinformation, tracking and artificial intelligence regulations. “Europe is now effectively the first jurisdiction in the world where online platforms no longer benefit from a ‘free pass’ and set their own rules,” said EU Internal Market Commissioner THIERRY BRETON, who will help enforce the law. Per our own CLOTHILDE GOUJARD: “Some of the requirements companies face include swiftly removing illegal content; stopping the use of people’s sensitive data, like their health information and sexual orientation, to show them personalized ads; and revealing previously secret information about how they operate.” Some American lawmakers, like Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), have blasted the law as unfair to American businesses. Read: China expected at UK AI summit despite pushback from allies by our own VINCENT MANANCOURT, TOM BRISTOW and LAURIE CLARKE
| | | |   | | | | | UKRAINIANS TO ARIZONA: Now that we know Ukrainian pilots will begin F-16 training in Tucson, what does it actually tell us about the progress of this marquee initiative? It’s going to be slow, is the main takeaway. Pentagon spokesperson Brig Gen. PATRICK RYDER told reporters at the Pentagon on Thursday that the training will begin with a small number of pilots — DOD officials won’t say how many — starting with being trained in the English language in Texas in September, followed by flight training at Morris National Guard Base in Arizona by the Air National Guard's 100th and 162nd wings in October. There will be several dozen ground crew and maintenance personnel included in the U.S. training program. Still, no one expects F-16 to make their way to Ukraine until next year at the earliest. And the U.S., the country that makes the warplane, agreed to host training after Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway committed to the effort. Point is, it’s a step, but not a big step — at least not yet.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — OPPOSING UKRAINE FUNDS: Two Republican lawmakers are urging their colleagues to sign a letter pledging that they won’t approve of more military aid to Ukraine. Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) and Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) drafted a letter, obtained by NatSec Daily, addressed to Office of Management and Budget Director SHALANDA YOUNG and dated Sept. 5. It chastises the administration for requesting $24 billion more in Ukraine funding authorization when, in their view, there have been significant Pentagon accounting errors and an ill-defined concept of when America’s commitment to the conflict ends. Statements by President JOE BIDEN that the U.S. will support Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” among other comments, “imply an open-ended commitment to supporting the war in Ukraine of an indeterminate nature, based on a strategy that is unclear, to achieve a goal yet to be articulated to the public or the Congress,” the lawmakers wrote. For that and other reasons, Vance and Roy will “oppose the additional expenditure for the war in Ukraine included in your supplemental request.” It’s unclear, as of now, how many other lawmakers will sign the letter. But the document is unsurprising as both Vance and Roy are skeptics of continued support to Kyiv. They will likely find cosigners among a growing group of Republicans (and perhaps some Democrats) who want America’s commitment to wind down — setting up a fight when Congress comes back in September. WILLIAM MARTIN, a spokesperson for Vance, confirmed the authenticity of the letter but didn’t want to comment on its content on the record. There’s going to be an intense lobbying fight on the Hill over the $24 billion request. MYKOLA MURSKYJ, director of government affairs for the pro-Kyiv Razom for Ukraine, told us, “This supplemental appropriations request is too important to play political games with.” Meanwhile the pro-restraint Heritage Action and Center for Renewing America will back the Vance-Roy initiative. “Congress should not approve more funding for Ukraine, especially when the administration won’t clearly articulate a Ukraine strategy that prioritizes American interests while also refusing to adequately explain the billions of dollars in accounting errors with previously approved aid packages,” said DAN CALDWELL, the center’s vice president. POSSIBLE MENENDEZ CHARGES: Federal prosecutors are weighing charges against Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), The Wall Street Journal’s CORINNE RAMEY and ARUNA VISWANATHA report. Prosecutors with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York have been investigating Menendez since 2019 over allegations that he and his wife received gifts in exchange for political favors. Menendez is also facing scrutiny over his role in an exclusive contract between Egyptian officials and a New Jersey businessman over halal beef exports. Menendez has previously denied any wrongdoing. “As stated previously, the Senator remains confident this matter will be successfully resolved,” said JENNIFER MORRILL, a spokesperson for Menendez told NatSec Daily. This is not the New Jersey Democrat’s first run-in with federal prosecutors. In 2015, the Justice Department charged Menendez with participating in a bribery scheme involving campaign contributions and gifts from a Florida eye doctor. Menendez went to trial, with the case ultimately resulting in a mistrial in 2017. Menendez was reelected to the Senate by 9 points the next year.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S TECH & AI SUMMIT: America’s ability to lead and champion emerging innovations in technology like generative AI will shape our industries, manufacturing base and future economy. Do we have the right policies in place to secure that future? How will the U.S. retain its status as the global tech leader? Join POLITICO on Sept. 27 for our Tech & AI Summit to hear what the public and private sectors need to do to sharpen our competitive edge amidst rising global competitors and rapidly evolving disruptive technologies. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ANNIVERSARY CRACKDOWN: The one-year anniversary of MAHSA AMINI’s death at the hands of Iranian police is coming, and Tehran’s authorities are trying to stamp out an uptick of unrest ahead of the date. “The arrests in recent weeks of activists and government critics have occurred across Iran,” The Wall Street Journal’s DAVID CLOUD reports. “Authorities have raided the homes of other Iranians who participated in last year’s protests and family members of protesters killed in the unrest, ordering them to sign pledges not to join new demonstrations, according to human-rights groups.” Around 3,000 students have been pressured to not participate in protests against the strict measures of the ruling clerics. One woman who was arrested last year was forced by officials with the Ministry of Intelligence to sign a document pledging she wouldn’t join a demonstration. The measures Tehran is taking indicate the regime fears the mass movement unleashed by Amini’s death and the persistent undercurrent of criticism.
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: THEODOROS GEORGIADES is now press attache for the Embassy of the Republic of Cyprus in Washington, Lippman has learned. He most recently was the press officer of the Ministry of Transport in Cyprus. — CAROLINE GRAY is leaving the Eurasia Group Foundation as a senior researcher and producer. She’s headed to Nairobi to conduct research on U.S.-China competition in East Africa with the support of a Fulbright fellowship.
| | — KYLIE MOORE-GILBERT, The Atlantic: Iran Will Keep Taking Hostages If the Money Keeps Flowing — Defense Intelligence Agency: Iranian UAVs in Ukraine: A Visual Comparison — AUDREY KURTH CRONIN, War On The Rocks: Open source technology and public-private innovation are the key to Ukraine’s strategic resilience
| | — The National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies Institute, 8:20 a.m.: Emerging technologies for defense conference: delivering new capabilities to the warfighter at speed and scale — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Taiwan's international engagement and the way forward — The Center for International and Strategic Studies Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, 11 a.m.: A virtual discussion on the recently released German Strategy on China — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: Using data to thwart ransomware Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is the large crack underneath the tower of excellence that is this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who is the one stable point in our lives.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
