Pacific comes together, right now, over China and North Korea

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Tuesday Sep 12,2023 08:04 pm
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
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By Lara Seligman, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

A U.S. Marine's helicopter takes part in Super Garuda Shield multi-national military exercise.

Participation in the Army’s annual Super Garuda Shield exercise with Indonesia skyrocketed from two to 14 nations between 2021 and 2022, Gen. Charles Flynn said. This year, 19 nations are involved. | Tatan Syuflana/AP Photo

With help from Alex Ward, Daniel Lippman and Phelim Kine

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Growing alarm over Chinese and North Korean activities in the Pacific is driving their neighbors to turn increasingly to the U.S. military to help counter the new threats, a top Army general told NatSec Daily.

Pacific nations are increasingly participating in military drills with the U.S. and each other in the region, said Gen. CHARLES FLYNN, commander of U.S. Army Forces in the Pacific, attributing the change to collective concern about Pyongyang’s stepped-up missile testing and Beijing’s military buildup.

Flynn said he noticed the shift even in the last two years since he began serving in the position. Compared to the environment when Flynn commanded the 25th Infantry Division, based at Schofield Barracks in Hawaii, a decade ago, it’s a sea change, he said.

“I think the unity and collective commitment that we’re seeing in the region is different because the threats are different and the challenges are more profound,” Flynn said.

Participation in the Army’s annual Super Garuda Shield exercise with Indonesia, for example, skyrocketed from two to 14 nations between 2021 and 2022, Flynn said; this year, 19 nations are involved. In Australia, the annual Talisman Sabre exercise grew from two to 13 nations in 2023, with 30,000 soldiers participating, he added.

During the command’s annual Army Chiefs conference at the end of the month in New Delhi, India, Flynn expects 36 countries to be in attendance, including at least 20 Army Chiefs.

“There’s this real thirst out here for increased multilateral and multinational operations,” Flynn said. “It’s not what they are saying; it’s what they are doing.”

The trend Flynn is noticing was on display at Camp David last month, during the first-ever trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan and South Korea. There, the three countries condemned “dangerous and aggressive behavior” by China in the South China Sea, and agreed to hold annual military drills and start sharing real-time information on North Korean missile launches.

It was a marked shift for Seoul and Tokyo, which have a history of acrimony dating back to Japan’s occupation of Korea from 1910 to 1945.

Countries in the region are increasingly trying to demonstrate “unity and collective commitment” in response to what they see as China and North Korea “acting irresponsibly and overly aggressive,” said Flynn.

“They are turning away from that, and they are turning, I think, toward the U.S. and other like-minded countries,” he said.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
The Inbox

IRAN PRISONERS DEAL IN MOTION: The Biden administration is pushing back after Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI said his government will choose how it’ll use the $6 billion in frozen funds set to be released by Washington in a prisoner exchange agreement, Matt reports.

The deal, which would see South Korea release the funds (only for humanitarian goods like food and medicine) to Qatar, marks a major diplomatic breakthrough for the adversaries, which have sparred over a number of issues from the Iran nuclear deal to Tehran’s continued ties with Moscow.

However, in an interview with NBC News, Raisi said the money “belongs to the Iranian people, the Iranian government, so the Islamic Republic of Iran will decide what to do with this money.”

State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER denied the president’s assertion, telling reporters that the funds will arrive in banks in Qatar and will be “under strict oversight” by the U.S. Treasury Department.

“The money can only be used for humanitarian purposes,” Miller told reporters today. “We will remain vigilant in watching the spending of those funds and have the ability to freeze them again if we need to.”

But the deal is still coming under fire from GOP lawmakers, who don’t believe Washington should be doing business with Tehran at all.

“Iran is not going to release these American citizens out of the goodness of their heart,” Miller said. “That is not real life, not how this works, that was never going to happen. We have to make tough choices and engage in tough negotiations to bring these American citizens home.”

RIME OF THE CHINESE MARINER: China’s navy launched its largest-ever naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean today, foreign defense officials and analysts told Financial Times’ KATHRIN HILLE.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy exercises, which are taking place in territorial waters off the coasts of Taiwan, the Philippines and Guam, have featured 20 Chinese warships and the Shandong aircraft carrier. They also were not announced previously by the Chinese government or the PLA. Military exercises involving any of China’s two aircraft carriers typically have only seen a handful of frigates and destroyers.

Meanwhile, Taiwan released its first defensive military strategy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which leans heavily on the lessons of Kyiv’s struggle against the invading forces, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. The report, published today, argues hostile neighbors pose threats due to their unpredictable aggression and Taiwan must discourage them from military adventurism initiating armed conflict.

“Even a totalitarian regime may fear wading deeper into a quagmire of war, like Putin’s nightmare,” said the report. “We at least have the strength to prevent the inclination towards war, and namely, dissuade the enemy to wage war on considering its potential cost.”

MOROCCO QUAKE UPDATE: The death toll from Morocco’s massive earthquake four days ago climbed to 2,900 today, with its government facing accusations of responding too slowly, The New York Times’ AARON BOXERMAN and VIVIAN YEE report.

Many citizens, frustrated by the government’s response, have begun to take matters into their own hands by coordinating their own relief efforts to send donated aid to the areas impacted. Countries including France, Germany, Italy and the U.S. have said they’re willing to help, but Morocco said it would initially accept search-and-rescue crews from “friendly countries” like Britain, Qatar, Spain and the United Arab Emirates, WaPo’s LOVEDAY MORRIS and ANNABELLE TIMSIT reported.

Libya was also struck by a major natural disaster this week, with more than 5,000 people believed dead following severe floods that began Monday, a high-ranking official in the government in eastern Libya told The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN, BENOIT FAUCON and CHAO DENG.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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2024

SO YOU WANT TO ‘CONTAIN’: GOP presidential candidate Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) called out President JOE BIDEN for saying he doesn’t want to “contain” China, insisting that Washington’s recent actions contradict that statement.

“What President Biden refuses to say is the truth. We don't want to ‘contain’ China, we should want to defeat China,” Scott told Fox News this morning.

The South Carolina senator cited the United States’ recent efforts to bolster its presence and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, explaining that working with Japan, South Korea, Australia and the United Kingdom have shown that “we want to make sure we are the dominant power.”

“There’s a reason why we are having conversations and meetings with Japan and South Korea, there’s a reason why he went to Vietnam, there is a reason we are working on AUKUS … why we’re working on nuclear submarines together,” Scott said.

Keystrokes

LONELY NO MORE: With major cyberattacks on the United States in recent years, the Pentagon’s U.S. Cyber Command has come to an unusual conclusion: Going it alone is no longer an option, our own MAGGIE MILLER and LARA SELIGMAN report.

Hackers are increasingly infiltrating private companies and government agencies far outside the Pentagon’s usual purview, and the hacks are being perpetrated by cybercriminals who honed their strategies abroad before striking the United States. So, Pentagon leaders have started opening up communications with other federal agencies and the private sector on cyber threats to elections and other critical systems, as well as increasing assistance to foreign allies.

They’ve codified the changes in a new cybersecurity strategy released today, and it’s “a more calibrated thinking about cyber, and realistic thinking about cyber,” MIEKE EOYANG, DOD deputy assistant secretary for cyber policy, told Maggie and Lara.

FOR THE KIDS: More than 100 K-12 schools across the U.S. are implementing new private sector tools to secure their systems against cyberattacks, ANNE NEUBERGER, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, told our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!).

Neuberger said 104 schools in 31 different states, representing 18,300 students and staff, have adopted the use of free email security and other security tools promised to schools by cloud security group Cloudflare. Those classrooms “cross red and blue” partisan lines, with Arkansas, Alabama, California, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin included in the effort.

Read: Customs and Border Protection says it will stop buying smartphone location data, by 404’s JOSEPH COX.

 

JOIN 9/19 FOR A TALK ON BUILDING THE NEW AMERICAN ECONOMY: The United States is undergoing a generational economic transformation, with a renewed bipartisan emphasis on manufacturing. Join POLITICO on Sept. 19th for high-level conversations that examine the progress and chart the next steps in preserving America’s economic preeminence, driving innovation and protecting jobs. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
The Complex

MISSILES TO POLAND: The State Department notified Congress on Monday that it has greenlit a possible $4 billion sale of a missile defense command system to Poland, Defense News’ JEN JUDSON reports.

The sale would provide Poland with the components necessary to operate Northrop Grumman’s Integrated Battle Command System and support Poland’s existing short and medium-range air and missile defense capabilities.

The deal for the technology, which was only approved for the U.S. army in the spring, comes as Poland has increasingly voiced concerns about the threat of Russia to Eastern Europe and purchased more military hardware to protect itself in recent years. In 2018, Poland bought Raytheon’s Patriot systems and was allowed to use a still-in-development advanced battle command system.

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — PLEA TO MCCARTHY: A pair of former top American military officials are calling on House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY to continue allowing military and humanitarian aid to flow to Ukraine, arguing that the war is at a “critical juncture.”

“Ukraine’s efforts to expel the unprovoked Russian invaders is at a critical juncture. Continued U.S. and NATO aid can and will be the difference in whether or not the world stops Putin’s dangerous aggression,” former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. PHILIP BREEDLOVE and former Commanding Gen. of U.S. Army Europe Lt. Gen. BEN HODGES wrote in a letter to McCarthy today.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has progressed slower than many have hoped, but “partisan politics” shouldn’t get in the way of assisting Kyiv, they argue. The plea comes as the House is set to consider its right-wing defense funding bill this week, which the Biden administration said has no shot at making it past the president’s desk.

“Ukrainians need our help. They need both military and non-lethal aid, and they needed it yesterday,” the former military officials wrote. The U.S. has sent over $100 billion to Ukraine since the war began.

 

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Broadsides

VLAD + DON: It appears that DONALD TRUMP and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN are actually on good terms, with the latter coming to the former president’s defense amid his slew of legal woes.

“This shows the whole rottenness of the American political system, which cannot claim to teach others about democracy,” Putin said in an appearance at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, per The Wall Street Journal’s MATTHEW LUXMOORE. “What’s happening with Trump is a persecution of a political rival for political motives.”

Trump has long espoused his admiration for Putin, and, if elected president again, he said he would end the Ukraine war in a single day. Observers have speculated that the authoritarian leader would like to see Trump back in office, and his comments today are the clearest indication of that.

Transitions

VICTORIA DILLON is joining the Office of the National Cyber Director as deputy director for public affairs and press secretary. She previously was chief of external affairs at CISA.

— J.A. Green & Co. is adding a trio of former Pentagon officials: retired Lt. Gen. DAVE FURNESS and retired Brig. Gen. ROBERT LYMAN as EVPs of defense programs and LEONOR TOMERO as VP of government relations.

BRIAN HALE has joined Booz Allen Hamilton as vice president of public relations. Hale previously served as assistant director in the FBI public affairs office.

What to Read

JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: Vice President Harris says showing up in Asia is important, but not enough

MAHA HILAL, The Nation: As long as we use drones, celebrating “American values” is a farce

STEVEN FELDSTEIN, The Atlantic: The answer to Starlink is more Starlinks

Tomorrow Today

The Georgetown University Institute for Women, Peace and Security,  Georgetown University's Iranian Cultural Society and Freedom House, 9 a.m.: A discussion on MAHSA AMINI's death: a year of protest and looking to the future.

The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: What's next for Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive?

The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 10 a.m.: A Brzezinski Lecture Series event with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN.

The House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on "an unbearable price: the devastating human costs of the Biden-Mayorkas border crisis"

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: The PGA Tour-LIV deal: examining the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund's investments in the United States

The New America and Arizona State University's Future Security Initiative, 10:05 a.m.: 2023 Future Security Forum

The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: Three years on: the regional impact and future of the Abraham Accords

The Center for a New American Security 1:30 p.m.: Cyber resiliency: discussing the 2023 DoD cyber strategy

The United States Institute of Peace, 2 p.m.: Legacies and peace in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia

The Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 2:30 p.m.: Scenarios for post-Putin Russia

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, whose provocations always inspire great fear in us.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose gentle nature soothes us. 

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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