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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok as soon as this month to make a deal. | Yuri Kadobnov/AFP/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt As NatSec Daily returns from its vacation, we’re hearing KIM JONG UN is preparing for an armored-train trip of his own. The North Korean leader is expected to meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN in Vladivostok to make a deal: Moscow gets artillery shells and anti-tank missiles while Pyongyang receives much-needed food as well as technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines. The potential gathering, first reported by The New York Times’ EDWARD WONG and JULIAN BARNES, could take place as soon as this month. The White House won’t confirm it has intelligence that the meeting will happen. But National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON told us that after Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU’s visit to Pyongyang in July, Kim “expects these discussions to continue, to include leader-level diplomatic engagement in Russia.” Her statement came after the administration recently warned that both countries are involved in arms negotiations. The two questions we had after hearing the news are: What does it mean and why now? The first answer is straightforward: Russia is in dire straits. U.S. and Western sanctions on the Kremlin’s military complex have starved its forces of requisite weapons for its war on Ukraine. Pyongyang has 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers alone, so safe to say it has spares available. Still, that Moscow would trade sensitive, advanced tech for conventional weapons shows how bad things really are for Putin. “The fact that Russia needs a partner like North Korea is evidence of how desperate they are without any further explanation needed,” said SYDNEY SEILER, who retired in July as the U.S. national intelligence officer for North Korea. As for why do all this now, two reasons popped up in our discussions with officials and experts. The simplest is that Pyongyang is taking advantage of Moscow, as it’s getting the far better end of the deal. Better for Kim to get the info he needs from Putin directly than relying on his hackers to steal it. Then there’s the broader story. After Kim no longer saw diplomacy with the U.S. and South Korea as a worthwhile pathway, he delivered a Jan. 1, 2020, address in which he emphasized Pyongyang was prepared to live indefinitely with U.S.-led sanctions. North Korea would still develop its nuclear and missiles program while growing economically as a nation, he declared. But then the pandemic hit, and it forced Kim to contend with the outbreak and the economic devastation it caused his country. Now, it appears Kim is returning to his plan. Building a closer partnership with Russia is part of it, as they clearly need each other while under Western-imposed strain. “These are two rogue countries that are looking for lifelines so it’s natural that these historical partners would turn to each other for ways to collaborate,” said the U.S. Institute of Peace’s FRANK AUM. Going forward, Russia and North Korea are expected to boost ties with China and Iran, who similarly face the West’s wrath. But all four nations would at most be frenemies of convenience, as they are hyper-autonomous and fearful of appearing weak. “I wouldn't say it's some type of apocalyptic geopolitical shift,” said Seiler. “There will be limitations, ultimately, to what these types of relationships will yield.”
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | BEIJING’S GATE-CRASHERS: Chinese nationals have accessed U.S. military bases and other sensitive sites some 100 times in recent years, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal’s GORDON LUBOLD, WARREN STROBEL and ARUNA VISWANATHA. The officials believe the instances to be an espionage threat, and the Pentagon, FBI and other agencies held a review last year to try and limit the instances. The attempts to breach the private areas appear “designed to test security practices at U.S. military installations and other federal sites,” WSJ writes. The nationals, sometimes dressed as tourists, are called “gate-crashers” by officials because of their attempts, whether by accident or on purpose, to access the sites without proper authorization. Examples range from Chinese nationals crossing through a missile range in New Mexico to scuba diving near a government rocket launch site in Florida. AN IRANIAN OLIVE BRANCH: Iran is slowing its buildup of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium, according to The Wall Street Journal’s LAURENCE NORMAN. A confidential report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, found that Iran added just 7.5 kilograms of enriched uranium to its stockpile over the last three months, a major drop-off from its previous rate of production. Tehran has also begun diluting some uranium in its stockpile. Though Iran still has a large quantity of nuclear fuel that it could use for military purposes, the slowdown better conforms with the U.S.’s request for Iran to stop accumulating fissile material. The move comes as Tehran seeks to ease tensions with Washington and reopen negotiations over the future of its nuclear program, as its economy continues to struggle under the weight of Western sanctions. Earlier this month, the U.S. and Iran reached a deal to release several Americans wrongfully detained in Iran, and the U.S. has pursued indirect diplomatic talks with Tehran.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here. | | | | | IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.
| | HALEY ON KIM-PUTIN: Seiler et al. might not believe that the Kim-Putin meeting signals some major global shift, but NIKKI HALEY does. “The Kim-Putin partnership is another sign that the dictators of the world are united,” the Republican presidential candidate said in a statement today. “The tyrants who lead China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea hate America and our values. We must take their threats seriously. Neither JOE BIDEN’s weakness nor DONALD TRUMP’s friendliness to Kim have changed North Korea’s direction for the better. These dictators only understand strength.” Haley’s foreign policy campaign messaging comes down to three things: She has experience as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, America will be stronger on her watch and the United States will counter the aims of dictators. The Kim-Putin meeting fits in her sweet spot. As the U.N. envoy, she helped shepherd through historic sanctions on North Korea following Pyongyang’s first-ever launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles. And now Haley gets to bash Biden for being president as the two autocrats meet and say that she would be tougher against them. ICYMI — A ‘fevered hallucination’: Latin America meets VIVEK RAMASWAMY by our own NAHAL TOOSI.
| | AI ON THE PRIZE: A report released this morning calls for the U.S. to develop a range of public-private partnerships to keep pushing the envelope on AI, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The report, from the Special Competitive Studies Project group led by former Google CEO ERIC SCHMIDT, challenges the U.S. government to retain the lead in developing generative AI technologies and implement them quickly. While it says China is lagging behind the U.S. in developing the technology now, the report adds that “Beijing is relentlessly pursuing its goal of becoming ‘the world’s primary center for science and high ground for innovation,’ which it sees as key to shaping the global balance of power to its advantage.” They also warn that a tech race “with both the PRC and the United States offering competing visions of the future trajectory of geopolitics” carries dangers. “We are entering a new era of uncertainty that could become highly destabilizing, with potentially grave consequences for humanity.”
| | | |   | | | | | SERVICE SECRETARIES SLAM HOLD: The secretaries of the Army, Navy and Air Force took to the opinion pages of The Washington Post Monday night to slam Alabama Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) hold on military promotions. It is the latest instance of defense and national security officials criticizing Tuberville for blocking votes in protest of the Department of Defense’s policy of paying for service members to travel across state lines for abortions if stationed in states with stringent abortion laws. In the piece, Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO, Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL and Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH called Tuberville’s hold “unprecedented” and said it puts U.S. national security “at risk.” They also defend the Department of Defense’s abortion policies, calling them “critical and necessary” in the face of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision that overturned the federal right to abortion.
| | ‘BUY AMERICAN’ BLOWBACK: A group of close U.S. military allies is lobbying Senate Armed Services Committee leaders to drop a “Buy American” provision from the National Defense Authorization Act ahead of negotiations to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the bill, Morning Defense also reports. The Defense MoU Attachés Group, an association of 25 foreign military attachés whose countries have special reciprocal trade agreements with the Pentagon, sent a letter making their case Friday. The letter, from DMAG Director SANDER OUDE HENGEL to SASC Chair JACK REED and SASC ranking Republican ROGER WICKER, was first obtained by MD. The Senate NDAA includes an amendment from Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.) that within 10 years would require any new Navy ship to use 100 percent domestically produced materials — though it would also allow DOD to waive those requirements. Baldwin has argued the measure would support American jobs and the U.S. defense industry. But the DMAG argues the language would undermine reciprocal defense agreements and hinder a push among allies and the U.S. to integrate supply chains in the face of threats from Russia and China. “Strength through cooperation is our advantage against geopolitical competitors and adversaries,” the letter states.
| | FINGERS AS BAYONETS? Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine have had a bleak outlook on the state of the war and their chances of keeping the territory that Moscow has seized since its invasion, according to calls intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence services. “They are fucking us up,” Russian soldier Andrey told his wife during a call in mid-July, according to one of the intercepts, obtained by Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH and FILIPP LEBEDEV. “No fucking ammunition, nothing ... Shall we use our fingers as bayonets?” Sixteen other soldiers’ calls intercepted detail a similarly pessimistic view, complaining about heavy casualties; a lack of proper equipment, munitions and training; and low morale among the forces. The Ukrainian intelligence source who provided Reuters with the audio said the recordings were representative of the challenges facing Russian troops, but didn’t explain how the recordings were selected. “That’s it. There is no second battalion left. They fucking turned it to crumbs,” Maxim, another soldier, told his wife in early July. As both sides have struggled to make significant gains in recent months, Russia has apparently been looking to Cuba to fill its ranks through a human trafficking ring intended to recruit Cuban citizens to fight against Ukraine, our own LAURA HÜLSEMANN reported Monday. In a statement, the Cuban government condemned the recruitment scheme, underlining that the country is “not part of the war conflict in Ukraine” and that it does not want to look “complicit in these actions.” A long-time ally of Moscow, Havana has faced pressure from neighboring Latin American countries for its refusals to condemn Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S TECH & AI SUMMIT: America’s ability to lead and champion emerging innovations in technology like generative AI will shape our industries, manufacturing base and future economy. Do we have the right policies in place to secure that future? How will the U.S. retain its status as the global tech leader? Join POLITICO on Sept. 27 for our Tech & AI Summit to hear what the public and private sectors need to do to sharpen our competitive edge amidst rising global competitors and rapidly evolving disruptive technologies. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MATT DUSS has joined the progressive Center for International Policy as its new executive vice president. The former foreign policy adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) was most recently a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. — LESLEY BYERS is now running global external affairs and policy communications at Micron. She most recently was senior adviser and communications director for the House Homeland Security Committee and is a Trump DHS alum. — Defense contractor Birdon has named a new president of its U.S. Board of Outside Directors: KEVIN MOONEY, a former president of Irving Shipbuilding. It also named RON RÁBAGO, a former Coast Guard rear admiral, as a board member. — RUSTEM UMEROV, Ukraine’s head of the State Property Fund, was tapped to replace Defense Minister OLEKSIY REZNIKOV on Sunday. The defense ministry “needs new approaches,” President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said in dismissing Reznikov. — Biden nominated former Treasury Secretary JACK LEW to be the U.S. ambassador to Israel. — CHRISTIAN MARRONE is now head of global intelligence and security at NYC-based industrial and investment conglomerate Standard Industries. He was most recently senior adviser at WestExec Advisors and is an alum of Lockheed Martin, DHS and DOD. — PATRICK MCGOVERN has been promoted to be assistant press secretary at the Department of Homeland Security. He most recently was a press assistant for DHS.
| | — JORDAN TAMA, Foreign Policy: Trump Didn’t Invent Isolationism — SPENCER ACKERMAN, The Nation: U.S. Foreign Policy Has an Extinction Agenda — JAYNISHA PATEL, Project Syndicate: What YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN’s Death Means for Africa
| | — The Business Council for International Understanding, 8 a.m.: A virtual discussion with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Nuclear security for nuclear newcomers: exploring Turkey's readiness — The Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: Japan's quiet leadership: reshaping the Indo-Pacific — The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: AUKUS: a generational opportunity to deepen our security partnerships with Australia and the United Kingdom — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Current challenges facing the homeland security intelligence enterprise — The Hudson Institute, 10:30 a.m.: Gaining ground in the Pacific: the U.S. Army's role in campaigning against China — Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, 1 p.m.: A hearing on the ongoing blockade of the Lachin corridor in Nagorno-Karabakh — National Endowment for Democracy, 2 p.m.: Kleptocratic cooperation in Africa: How Russia and China undermine democracy — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: A discussion on “acquisition for innovation” Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who we never like seeing in person. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, for whom we would swim around the world to visit. CORRECTION: The Aug. 25 NatSec Daily misstated Sen. Bob Menendez's margin of victory in 2018. Menendez won by 11 points.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
