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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Two Israeli officials said that the order for a 24-hour evacuation of northern Gaza comes ahead of an “imminent” ground invasion of the enclave. | Hatem Moussa/AP | With help from Lara Seligman, Nahal Toosi, Daniella Cheslow, John Sakellariadis and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Two Israeli officials told Alex that the order for a 24-hour evacuation of northern Gaza comes ahead of an “imminent” ground invasion of the enclave. The problem is it’s unlikely that the 1.1 million people will get to safety before tanks start rolling in. Oxfam America sent an urgent message to the State Department and White House, obtained by NatSec Daily, insisting the evacuation order “will heighten the dangers civilians are facing.” The United Nations said such a movement was “impossible.” The International Committee of the Red Cross stated Israel’s instructions “are not compatible with international humanitarian law.” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told MSNBC this morning that the instruction to move from Gaza’s north to the south in such a short time is a “tall order.” Even Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, whose invasion of Ukraine led to the slaughter of thousands of innocent people, said the civilian casualties from a ground invasion “will be absolutely unacceptable.” Hamas is complicating the issue further by telling residents to stay in their homes and putting up roadblocks as a ground invasion looms and thousands of airstrikes pummel Gaza. But Israel’s siege of the territory also isn’t helping, as a dearth of electricity stops evacuation messages from reaching the intended audience. A senior administration official, who like others was granted anonymity to speak freely about internal deliberations, reiterated that Israel has an “obligation” to defend itself from Hamas but that the U.S. is working with Israel and Egypt to find safe passages out of Gaza and ways for aid to get in. “We're trying to figure out a way of how to best alleviate the dire suffering of these innocent civilians — suffering at the hands of Hamas — create the conditions needed to resume the flow of life-saving humanitarian assistance, and we're advocating for the upholding of the law of war,” the official said. Another U.S. official was a lot more pessimistic in a conversation with our own LARA SELIGMAN: "There is a real obvious concern that a lot of innocent people are going to die." Both Israeli officials asserted that what happens to civilians in the coming days will be Hamas’ fault, especially if they’ve urged residents not to flee. The group, after all, sparked the conflict by launching a barbaric attack and launching rockets at Israel, killing around 1,300 people and taking 150 hostages, some of them Americans. Humanitarian groups and experts say Gaza’s rulers would certainly shoulder some of the blame, but so would Israel for demanding a massive evacuation take place within a short period of time. More civilians would surely die during the campaign, adding to the roughly 1,800 Palestinians who have been killed since the war began last week. The U.S. administration’s rhetoric appears to be shifting toward the plight of civilians since the evacuation order was given. “This is a time for resolve and not revenge, for purpose and not panic and for security and not surrender,” Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said during a visit to Israel today. And in a meeting with Palestinian Authority President MAHMOUD ABBAS today, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN offered his condolences to Palestinian civilian victims of the conflict. JON FINER, the deputy national security adviser, also wouldn’t tell our own RYAN LIZZA that Israel was abiding by the laws of war during its response to Hamas’ attack. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is exploring imposing new sanctions on Hamas due to its attack on Israel, a third U.S. official familiar told our own NAHAL TOOSI. Read: To end Hamas, Israel may need to grieve first by Nahal
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | WHITE PHOSPHOROUS USED? The Human Rights Watch is accusing the Israeli military of using white phosphorus, a chemical that ignites when exposed to oxygen, as it attacks Gaza — an act that would constitute a war crime. HRW cited videos taken this week and interviews with two people in Gaza who described the attacks. The Washington Post also independently verified videos of what appears to be the chemical being released over Gaza on Wednesday. “Any time that white phosphorus is used in crowded civilian areas, it poses a high risk of excruciating burns and lifelong suffering,” LAMA FAKIH, HRW’s Middle East and North Africa director, said in a statement. The Israeli army told our own DANIELLA CHESLOW that it is “currently not aware of the use of weapons containing white phosphorus in Gaza … any use of weapons containing WP is subject to international law restrictions.” THE IRAN QUESTION: As Iran’s possible role in Hamas’ attack continues to be murky, several people familiar with the operation told The New York Times’ FARNAZ FASSIHI and RONEN BERGMAN that “a tight circle of leaders from Iran, Hezbollah [the militant group backed by Iran] and Hamas helped plan the attack starting over a year ago, trained militants and had advanced knowledge of it,” they wrote. But others said Iran wasn’t that deeply involved: “The implementation was all Hamas, but we do not deny Iran’s help and support,” ALI BARAKEH, a senior Hamas official, told the Times. Iran has publicly denied helping, and the U.S. hasn’t found evidence directly linking Tehran. RUSSIA’S FALL OFFENSIVE: Moscow appears to have launched a “renewed offensive” against Ukrainian troops in the eastern part of the country as the war inches closer to entering its second winter, Matt reports. But Russian troops haven’t made much progress, NSC spokesperson Kirby told reporters today, adding that the new attacks are “not a surprise.” “The Russian military appears to be using human wave tactics where they throw masses of poorly trained soldiers right into the battlefield without proper equipment, and apparently without proper training and preparation,” he said. Kirby’s announcement comes on the fourth day of Russia’s intense offensive on the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, though its forces have made little headway, CNN’s VASCO COTOVIO, SVETLANA VLASOVA and YULIA KESAIEVAREPOR report. Russian forces have launched hundreds of attacks on Kyiv’s troops in the city using tanks and armored personnel carriers. Kirby also said that North Korea and Russia’s military cooperation has been “expanding.” In recent weeks, North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions, he said. In return for support, the U.S. believes Pyongyang wants to obtain fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles and equipment to make ballistic missiles among other materials to build advanced technologies. Meanwhile, Ukraine successfully used “experimental” naval drones to strike a Russian military carrier and patrol boat part of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea today, Ukrainian intelligence officials told The Washington Post’s DAVID STERN. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: With Hamas’ brutal attack on Israel and the civilian strife that has followed, we aren’t feeling up for a light-hearted drinks feature this week. We humbly suggest that whenever you reach for your favorite beverage, take a moment to think of the Israeli, Palestinian and American families suffering today.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | RAMASWAMY’S HANNITY SPAT: GOP presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY still isn’t getting love from Fox News, and the Israel-Hamas conflict isn’t helping his case. When Ramaswamy attacked candidate NIKKI HALEY for her ties to defense contractors this morning while talking about the Israeli conflict, Fox News host SEAN HANNITY pushed back: “I actually think that people working … in the defense industry, are playing a vital role for the cause of freedom. So I don't really call it a corrupting influence,” Hannity said. “I actually liked the experience that goes along with working for defense contractors.” For more than two minutes, the pair talked over each other and argued about whether Ramaswamy was qualified to be in the race. On social media afterward, the tech entrepreneur continued his attack on Hannity and Haley, who has called for Israel to “eliminate” Hamas. “It’s pretty simple. Support Israel’s right to self-defense. Avoid WWIII. And if you’re @NikkiHaley whose family has made millions post-U.N. through military contracting, Boeing’s board, & collecting corporate stock options while running for President (and has systematically monetized her time in government), you’re not the right choice for America today. The fact that Hannity was so adamant against me is revealing,” he tweeted. Haley’s campaign didn’t respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.
| | EYE ON IRAN: Lawmakers and intel officials are closely watching Iran for potential cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in Israel and the U.S. after the surprise attack Hamas, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. “The Iranian regime poses a significant cyber threat to both the United States and our regional allies,” House Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) said in a statement. So far this week, there have been no confirmed instances of Iran and other malicious actors in cyberspace attacking Israeli critical infrastructure. Senate Intelligence Chair Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) told MC that he hoped the administration was sending “a clear signal to Iran and other regional actors not to escalate this conflict, including through the kinds of attacks on Israeli critical infrastructure we’ve seen in previous years.”
| | | |   | | | | | F-16 TRAINING: Ukrainian pilots are expected to begin training to fly the F-16 fighter jet at an Air National Guard base in Tuscon, Ariz., next week, Lara reports. A small number of pilots, who arrived in the United States last month to participate in an English language course at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas, have passed their first test for English proficiency and are headed to Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona. There, they will train with the 162nd Wing, the main F-16 training hub for the Air Force. U.K. LENDS A HAND: Britain will send surveillance planes, Navy ships and about 100 commandos to the eastern Mediterranean to help prevent escalation in the Middle East, The Guardian’s DAN SABBAGH reports. Poseidon P-8 aircraft and other planes will begin patrolling today, tasked with monitoring any weapons shipments between Iran or Russia to Hezbollah. Other U.K. military units and fighter jets in the region are on alert for Israel’s expected ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. ‘THAT’S A RUSSIAN WARSHIP’: Rep. CORY MILLS (R-Fla.) wished the U.S. Navy a happy 248th birthday today, tweeting a photo with a military vessel in the background. But “that’s a Russian warship,” DAVE BROWN, our defense editor, pointed out. It appears that Mills deleted the tweet, posting another with the original text but no picture attached. No one is safe from Dave’s eagle eye.
| | WHAT’S WASHINGTON’S ROLE? Washington isn’t planning to have boots on the ground in Israel, but the American military does have a major role to play there, the first group of U.S. lawmakers to visit the country since the Hamas attacks told Lara and our own JOE GOULD. U.S. “intelligence gathering and intelligence sharing” could be “extremely important” to Israel locating and freeing hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, said Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services’ Emerging Threats and Capabilities panel, who just returned from leading a congressional delegation to Israel for talks with Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. The White House said Thursday there are no plans for U.S. troops to travel to Israel for combat. With 17 Americans missing and possibly among Hamas’ captives, the Pentagon has sent a small cell of special operations forces to help with intelligence and planning. However, those troops won’t be directly involved in hostage rescue operations. “Soldiers and operators can assist in retrieving Americans. It is something we have seen in the past, with our operators, and their mission-set to retrieve Americans that have been taken by hostile forces,” Ernst said, adding that such a task would be “incredibly difficult” in densely populated Gaza. WHITE HOUSE AND HILL TALKING: The White House will meet Friday afternoon with a group of top House lawmakers to discuss plans for sending aid to Israel, four Capitol Hill aides confirmed to our own ADAM CANCRYN and JENNIFER HABERKORN. The meeting comes as the Biden administration prepares a new supplemental funding request meant to support Israel’s military and defense capabilities in its war with Hamas. The group of lawmakers is expected to include top House appropriators and leaders of the Foreign Affairs committee, both aides said. Rep. PATRICK McHENRY, who is serving as the acting House speaker, will also join the meeting, one aide said. NSC spox Kirby confirmed that talks were “happening today.” Meanwhile, Top progressive lawmakers are urging Biden to lean more heavily on Israel as it retaliates following Hamas’ violent attack, citing the impact on the Palestinian population in Gaza, which includes many children, our own HOLLY OTTERBEIN reports. TAKE IT FROM THE PROS: Israel has asked the U.S. to deliver critical munitions and military equipment in the wake of last weekend’s attack by Hamas. But what the U.S. ally really should be asking for ahead of a potential ground invasion into Gaza is advice, not arms, Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) told our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS. “We just finished up two 20-year counterinsurgency campaigns, and we learned a lot from both our successes and our failures,” Moulton, a veteran of four combat tours in Iraq, told John. Indiscriminate violence will only create more radicals than it takes off the battlefield, Moulton argued. Instead, Israel needs to find a political solution to the conflict, which has already claimed upward of 1,000 Israelis and Palestinians. “If the big idea is that they’re going to kill a bunch of Hamas terrorists, and go back to the status quo in Gaza, I guarantee you that will not work,” he said. “And yet, I have not heard Israeli leadership articulate what that long-term political solution might be.”
| | | | GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AID TO AFGHANS: Thirty-four advocacy groups are asking the Biden administration to send more emergency humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan after a 6.3 magnitude earthquake killed over 2,400 people last weekend, noting the United States’ “special moral obligation and debt.” “For twenty years, [the U.S.] said it would stand by to support the people of Afghanistan in their desire to build a sustainable, peaceful and democratic country. It also holds partial responsibility for the failure of the past twenty years, therefore making the actions we request imperative,” the coalition wrote today in a letter. In a separate statement today, International Rescue Committee Afghanistan Director SALMA BEN Aissa said, “now, more than ever, Afghanistan is in dire need of funding and support from world leaders.” The U.N. estimated that more than 90 percent of those killed were women and children. USAID announced Thursday that it’s sending $12 million in humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. CHINA’S ZIPPED LIPS: Beijing has yet to condemn Hamas’ surprise attack on Israeli soil, and Israel is very unhappy about it. Israel’s Ambassador RAFI HARPAZ expressed “deep disappointment with Chinese announcements and statements … where there was no clear and unequivocal condemnation of the terrible massacre” in a call with Chinese envoy for the Middle East ZHAI JUN, Israel’s foreign ministry said today, per Reuters’ HENRIETTE CHACAR. The rift between Beijing and Jerusalem continued to grow today after an Israeli embassy employee in China was stabbed today outside a supermarket, which “shocked” U.S. Chinese Ambassador NICHOLAS BURNS, who vowed full support for the Jewish community.
| | –– FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: DILPREET SIDHU has rejoined the NSC as deputy chief of staff and a special assistant to the president, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was deputy chief of staff to the deputy secretary of defense. — BRITTANY PARKER is now deputy director for partnerships for space policy at the Office of the Secretary of Defense. She most recently was deputy director for analysis at OSD. — RYAN LEO is vice president of business development and strategy at Leidos. He was a program manager at the company.
| | — IBTISAM MAHDI, The Nation: Report from Gaza: ‘The hospital yard is filled with corpses’ — HUSSEIN IBISH, The Atlantic: Israel is walking into a trap — Editorial Board, The Boston Globe: The world is watching the U.S. Senate’s dysfunction and delay on ambassadors and military officials
| | — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 8 a.m.: Japan's middle power diplomacy in an era of U.S.-China rivalry — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Sahel-Transatlantic Dialogue focusing on insecurity and instability in the Sahel — The American Enterprise Institute, 11 a.m.: Discussion with former Indo-Pacific commanders on peace in the Pacific — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 11 a.m.: Exploring the challenges facing the U.S. Navy and its financial strategy — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12:30 p.m.: Book discussion on "The Able Archers” — The Brookings Institution, 2:30 p.m.: The price cap on Russian oil: Is it working? — Georgetown University, 7 p.m.: Discussion with Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) as part of the 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Series on National Security & Foreign Policy Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wouldn’t give us 24 seconds to clean out our desks. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who is beloved 24/7.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
