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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  The U.S. didn’t want to see such a massive bombing campaign and a near-total internet blackout in Gaza. The Biden administration pushed Israel to restore connectivity and be more targeted with its airstrikes. | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Joe Gould The Biden administration has two problems to solve as it watches the growing war between Israel and Hamas: deterring a wider conflict and supporting Israeli ground operations in Gaza that went further than the U.S. advised. Top of mind for administration officials is ensuring Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, stay out of the fight. The problem is that’s looking less and less likely by the hour. Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza has “crossed the red lines, which may force everyone to take action,” Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI posted Saturday on X in a rare English message. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah intensified Sunday and Monday, culminating in Israeli forces striking Hezbollah targets inside Lebanon with artillery and mortar fire. In a clear deterrence message, the U.S. stationed the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike group in the eastern Mediterranean Sea; the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group is in the Red Sea and may join the Ford group. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN noted Sunday on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” that the U.S. would retaliate again if Iranian proxies renewed attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East. The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which entered the Mediterranean Sea over the weekend, is now heading to the Central Command area following the proxy attacks. A senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal thinking, backed Sullivan’s remarks. “Everything we are doing is designed to deter and prevent” an escalation. The official added that President JOE BIDEN and his team are still “preparing for all contingencies.” The other issue is how to convince Israel it’s going too far in its Gaza operation, even in the initial stages. The U.S. didn’t want to see such a massive bombing campaign and a near-total internet blackout in Gaza. The administration pushed Israel to restore connectivity and be more targeted with its airstrikes. When asked if Israel is mostly heeding America’s advice on its war plans, U.S. officials offer qualified support. “They appear to be executing the plans as we have come to understand them, but they are their plans,” the senior administration official said. The twin dilemma is making an already difficult situation even harder for the administration, which is struggling to keep a lid on Israel’s military operation and regional tensions. But officials say they’re confident they have a plan to navigate the turbulence.
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Lockheed Martin is collaborating with commercial companies to integrate our technologies and expertise with their capabilities to help first responders detect, predict and fight wildfires. Learn more. | | | | | ISRAEL ADVANCES ON GAZA CITY: Speaking of Israel’s ground operation, The Wall Street Journal’s MARGHERITA STANCATI, DAVID CLOUD and DOV LIEBER report that Israeli tanks and infantry moved into the outskirts of Gaza City. That indicates Israel’s goal is to encircle Gaza’s largest population center ahead of an expected larger ground invasion. “Israeli armored units on Monday reached Salah al-Din Road, the main artery connecting north and south Gaza. The Israeli military presence on that road potentially gives it control over a strategic chokepoint in the strip,” they wrote. Rear Adm. DANIEL HAGARI, the top IDF spokesperson, still won’t disclose how many Israeli troops are in Gaza at this point. What he would tell reporters Monday was that “dozens of terrorists were eliminated” overnight. The IDF and Shin Bet later disclosed that they rescued Pvt. ORI MEGIDISH who had been taken by Hamas during the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. “The soldier was medically checked, is doing well, and has met with her family,” the agencies said in a joint statement. On Sunday, Biden held a call with Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH AL-SISI in which, per a White House readout, they discussed “that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation.” That’s a notable statement, as many Gaza residents don’t want to leave the enclave, fearing Israel won’t let them back in after defeating Hamas. All this comes as the targeting of Jewish populations continues, most visibly as a mob in Russia pushed into Dagestan airport in search of Jewish passengers arriving on a flight from Tel Aviv. At least 20 people were injured during the Sunday riot in the Muslim-majority region, prompting Russian authorities to arrest at least 60 people. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN called a meeting of security officials on Monday, though the Kremlin is already blaming what happened on “outside interference” without providing evidence. The Putin-led meeting will center around “attempts by the West to use the events in the Middle East to divide the [Russian] society,” spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said Monday. ZELENSKYY KNOWS YOU’RE NOT PAYING ATTENTION: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY can feel the world’s attention moving on from his country’s fight against Russia. Time Magazine’s SIMON SHUSTER reports, in a deep dive and interesting interview with Zelenskyy, that the president who once cracked jokes as airstrikes pummeled Ukraine is now far more serious and somber due to the dimming spotlight. “Now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out,” said a member of his team. The frustration is palpable when you read some of the president’s quotes from the piece. “The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’” “Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody,” he said following a trip to the United States, once again rallying support for his nation’s case. Having to criss-cross the world asking for money and weapons “takes all your power, your energy. You understand? It takes so much of everything.” Questions about U.S. and European support were already mounting before the Israel-Hamas war. But Washington’s attention has turned to that crisis while House Republicans threaten to scuttle future aid. Meanwhile, the new government in Slovakia, a country that had staunchly helped arm Ukraine, is halting weapons deliveries to Kyiv. NIGER IN TROUBLE: Militants have increased the rate of attacks in Niger following the coup, a sign that problems will only get worse if French forces fully leave the country and as the future of U.S. support remains in doubt. “Violent incidents targeting civilians by the Islamic State’s Sahel branch quadrupled in the month following the coup,” The Washington Post’s RACHEL CHASON reports. Making matters worse, dozens of Nigerien soldiers have been killed by ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates in that timeframe. An unnamed Pentagon official offered a dire assessment to the Post: “Overall, we are likely to see the situation continue to deteriorate, at the current or accelerating rate…On the terrorist side, we see few barriers to growth.” An uptick in terrorist attacks have also followed coups in nearby Mali and Burkina Faso, indicating that whatever regional stability remained is quickly evaporating. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | STILL TRUMPING OTHERS: Former President DONALD TRUMP stole the show at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual conference Saturday, a prime example of how, despite any perceived missteps, he’s still the dominant GOP presidential candidate, our own ALEX ISENSTADT reports. At the event, Trump made no reference to comments he’d offered two weeks ago criticizing Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and describing Hezbollah as “very smart” in the aftermath of the attacks in Israel that had killed 1,400. Nor did the crowd seem to fixate on them. “People judge him for what he does,” said MATT BROOKS, the RJC’s chief executive officer, referencing elements of Trump’s record like moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, “as opposed to the noise.” In the leadup to his speech, former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY took the biggest swings at her former boss of any presidential candidate: “As president, I will not compliment Hezbollah,” she said. “Nor will I criticize Israel’s prime minister in the middle of tragedy and war.” ICYMI — ‘This is not cancel culture’: DeSantis defends call to ban pro-Palestinian groups at Florida colleges by our own KELLY GARRITY
| | NEW AI POLICIES: Biden launched a broad new whole-of-government approach to artificial intelligence today, with an executive order that aims to create standards and rules around the technology, our own MOHAR CHATTERJEE reports. It takes aim at cutting-edge AI models and tech-driven issues that Washington and Congress have struggled to address, including algorithmic housing discrimination, cybersecurity and data privacy. The executive order is “the strongest set of actions any government in the world has ever taken on AI safety, security and trust,” BRUCE REED, the president’s deputy chief of staff on policy, told our colleagues. The document, which Mohar and REBECCA KERN scooped on Friday, directs federal agencies to both deploy AI and guard against its possible bias; requires the developers of the largest AI models to follow new safety guidelines; and creates government and industry standards to discern AI-generated content. NO MONEY FOR YOU: The U.S. and dozens of foreign governments will soon issue a joint commitment not to pay ransoms to cybercriminal gangs, a senior administration official told our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS. The pledge, which is the latest effort by the White House to tamp down on online extortion, will be unveiled later this week as part of the third-ever gathering of the international counter-ransomware initiative in Washington. However, the payment ban will not necessarily include all 48 national governments that are party to the CRI, the official said. “There's still a few nations that have not yet signed up to that statement, but it'll be the vast majority,” the official said.
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | INFLATION FRUSTRATION: Thirty-one small businesses in the aerospace and defense sector are urging House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and other leaders to get full-year appropriations bills passed for fiscal 2024, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop. In an Oct. 26 letter, they argue that short-term funding patches — which continue spending at last year’s levels — don’t account for inflation’s battering effects. Shutdowns are harmful, too, they said. The letter was organized by the Aerospace Industries Association. Costs for manufacturing inputs remain persistently high, with some doubling or tripling in price. Plus, lead times for some materials are tripling and salaries for skilled workers are up 40 percent, they wrote. The companies support the $831.3 billion Senate defense appropriations bill’s approach to inflation over the $826.4 billion House defense appropriations bill. A stopgap to fund the government runs through Nov. 17.
| | | |   | | | | | MITCH’S CHESS MATCH: Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL is digging his heels in for Ukraine aid as Johnson aims to separate it from supporting Israel, shrugging off criticism and expending political capital for the country, our own BURGESS EVERETT reports. House Republicans are aiming to move forward with a bill to provide aid to Israel on Thursday, as the newly elected speaker and his allies oppose passing Biden’s sweeping national security package that ties assistance to the countries together. At an event today in Louisville with the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., OKSANA MARKAROVA, McConnell argued against the “false choice” between helping one county or another against the “enemies of democracy.” “Think of it as an axis of evil: China, Russia and Iran," he said. "So this is not just a test for Ukraine. It is a test for the United States and from the free world. And the path toward greater security for all of us is simple: Help Ukraine win the war.” It’s entirely possible McConnell has to reevaluate the best strategy for Ukraine. For now, as one GOP senator told Burgess: “I don’t think there’s much appetite” for McConnell’s envisioned security package. Senate Minority Whip JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) said there’s “a number of our members who are not for Ukraine funding … I think there’s a big majority that understands what’s at stake here.” It’s ammunition for the conservative rabble-rousers who sought to oust McConnell last year. Assessing the GOP leader’s passion for funding Ukraine’s defense, Sen. MIKE BRAUN (R-Ind.) said: “That doesn’t mean you’re right.”
| | U.S. SAYS ISRAEL ISN’T RUSSIA: The Biden administration rebuked a comparison of Israel to Russia today as the Palestinian death toll in Gaza quickly approaches the number of Ukrainian civilians killed by Moscow since that war began, Matt reports. On Sunday night, Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) called out U.S. officials for their “double standard” of unconditionally supporting Israel in its war against the Hamas militant group while condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY pushed back on Jayapal’s comparison today, saying that Russia, unlike Israel, deliberately targets Ukrainian civilians as part of Moscow’s war strategy: “Slaughtering innocent Ukrainians, that's part of their strategy inside Ukraine. That is not what we're seeing from Israel,” he told CNN. More than 8,000 Palestinians have been killed since Oct. 7, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. The death toll doesn’t differentiate between civilian and militant deaths, but the health ministry said it’s composed mostly of women and children. In Ukraine, Russia has killed about 9,600 civilians since the war began in February 2022, according to Human Rights Watch. IT’S YOUR FAULT: Chinese and Russian military leaders say they aren’t responsible for global instability. The U.S., actually, is the problem, they claim. “The Western policy of steady escalation of the conflict with Russia carries the threat of a direct military clash between nuclear powers, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences,” Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU said during a Monday military forum in Beijing. “Some countries deliberately create turbulence and interfere in other countries’ internal affairs,” added ZHANG YOUXIA, China’s second-highest-ranking military officer. Of course, Shoigu didn’t note how Russia invaded Ukraine unprovoked and how China in recent months has harassed American aircraft and Indo-Pacific nations’ vessels. Belying the Chinese comments were remarks by Lt. General HE LEI during an interview at the same forum. “Once the Chinese government is forced to use force to resolve the Taiwan question, it will be a war for reunification, a just and legitimate war supported and participated in by the Chinese people, and a war to crush foreign interference,” he said (italics added for emphasis).
| | — MICHAEL LLENZA started recently as principal PM manager at Microsoft’s Sovereign Cloud Security Group. The former Navy officer was last a director of federal programs at Microsoft. — KATE CONSTANTINI has been promoted to be director of communications at With Honor.
| | — EMMA BEALS and PETER SALISBURY, Foreign Affairs: A world at war — GILAD ERDAN, Fox News: Israel’s war against Hamas is a battle for civilization — Editorial board, Haaretz: Netanyahu’s coalition must remove him immediately
| | — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: China in South Asia: Understanding Beijing's evolving influence in smaller South Asian states, focusing on Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Unpacking recent developments in the Chinese military: What's happening with the People's Liberation Army? — The Senate Appropriations Committee, 9:30 a.m.: A review of the National Security Supplemental Request — The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: War on Gaza: causes and implications, seen and unseen — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Looking back in order to find a way forward: expert views on Israel and the occupied territories — Washington Post Live, 11:30 a.m.: The Israel-Gaza conflict and U.S. policy in the Mideast — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: Indo-Pacific missile arsenals: avoiding spirals and mitigating escalation risks Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose two biggest problems are named “Alex” and “Matt.” We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who has 99 problems and being good at what he does are all of them.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Using Artificial Intelligence to help firefighters better detect, predict and fight wildfires.
Lockheed Martin is collaborating with commercial companies to integrate our technologies and expertise with their capabilities to help first responders detect, predict and fight wildfires. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
