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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a skeptic of more aid to Kyiv, said that Ukrainian Gen Valery Zaluzhnyy’s candor blew a major hole in the administration’s Ukraine policy. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Joe Gould and Paul McLeary While the world’s attention was turned to Israel vs. Hamas, there was a major development in that other war raging in eastern Europe: Ukraine’s top general said his forces won’t have a “beautiful breakthrough” against Russia any time soon. That’s roiling an already intense congressional debate about whether to send more weapons to Ukraine, Alex and JOE GOULD report. Some lawmakers, namely Senate Republicans, argue Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNYY helped their case to block any more aid to Kyiv. Without a sudden boost in technological superiority, “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough” against Russia, Zaluzhnyy commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, told The Economist in an interview posted Wednesday night. The war is at a stalemate, he said, and took the blame for believing Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN would change course after losing roughly 150,000 troops. “In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.), a skeptic of more aid to Kyiv, said that Zaluzhnyy’s candor blew a major hole in the administration’s Ukraine policy. Their pitch, Hawley contended, is “we need to keep funding Ukraine, in all aspects, not just militarily, we need to provide money for their pensions and all the rest so that it can remain a stalemate.” “That naturally raises the question: What exactly is our endgame strategy?” he asked. “What's the plan here? I don't think they have a plan.” Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio), who is openly opposed to further assisting Ukraine, had a similar view, saying the goal should be to move toward a negotiated agreement between Kyiv and Moscow. The Senate is likely to approve more aid to Ukraine, part of President JOE BIDEN’s $106 billion request that also includes support for Israel and Taiwan, as well as more resources for the southern border with Mexico. But House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has more skeptical colleagues to convince. The top House member told Senate Republicans on Wednesday that he is for sending more weapons to Ukraine, but claims he can only get lawmakers to approve of those deliveries separately from an Israel-focused measure. Zaluzhnyy’s message seems aimed at influencing the American congressional debate. The general, like Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, is desperate for more advanced fighter jets, drones, longer-range missiles and artillery to punch through Russian lines. Read Alex and Joe’s full story.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | CLOSING IN ON GAZA CITY: Israeli troops began closing in on Gaza City today, cutting the area off from the rest of the territory and trapping hundreds of thousands of people there, The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN reports. That’s a bad sign for those in the city, as humanitarian aid won’t be able to trickle in. And Palestinians are already struggling to live off the little aid that has made it through, WSJ writes. It also marks a new phase in the ground operation, one that Israeli officials say will be long and intense as they try to root out the Hamas militant group. More than 9,000 Palestinians have been killed since fighting began less than a month ago, The Associated Press’ NAJIB JOBAIN and KAREEM CHEHAYEB report. With no sign that Israel’s airstrikes on the Gaza Strip will stop, more than half of the territory’s 2.3 million residents have been driven from their homes. As we reported yesterday, there are ongoing discussions about the future governance of Gaza, with one possibility being allies establishing a multinational force to keep peace in the enclave. Today, WSJ’s WILLIAM MAULDIN reports that Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is speaking with his counterparts in Arab states about the matter, citing people familiar with the early-stage conversations. It’s expected to come up as he visits Israel on Friday and plans to stop in Jordan. But analysts told the AP’s JOSEF FEDERMAN and AMY TEIBEL that Israel, the U.S. and other allies have acted with “questionable assumptions and short-term thinking” — because they have no clear plan for what will happen in the region after the war. Read: Netanyahu may not last, Biden and aides increasingly believe by JONATHAN LEMIRE, NAHAL TOOSI and Alex U.S.-CHINA ARMS CONTROL TALKS: American and Chinese officials will soon meet for rare arms control talks, The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON reports, a sign that the world’s two strongest militaries could build confidence with one another as they compete. The meeting scheduled from Monday will be the first U.S.-China arms control talks since the Obama administration, though Trump-era officials pushed for such negotiations. “The discussion doesn’t signal the start of formal negotiations to set limits on each side’s nuclear forces, as Washington has long done with Moscow. Instead, Monday’s session will provide American officials with an opportunity to probe their Chinese counterparts about Beijing’s nuclear doctrine and the ambitious buildup of its nuclear arsenal, which for decades has been much smaller than the U.S.’s and Russia’s,” Gordon reports. And what timing. On Thursday, Putin signed a law effectively revoking Russia’s ratification of a key nuclear treaty, opening up the possibility the Kremlin could conduct new atomic weapons testing, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. Putin previously said revoking Russia’s 2000 ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is a move that would merely “mirror” the position taken by the United States, which has signed but never ratified the treaty. Russian officials have said that exiting the treaty doesn’t mean the Kremlin will resume nuclear testing and that it would only consider doing so if the U.S. decides to do the same. “We urge Moscow to hold to those statements,” SecState Blinken said in a Thursday statement. GOP V. COACH: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala) held his own as he faced the biggest challenge to his hold on military nominations yet Wednesday night, blocking requests from five GOP senators to confirm more than 60 positions, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD reported. The tension played out over several hours on the floor. Sen. DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska) touted his work with Tuberville to try to find an offramp to the standoff, but he said Tuberville’s tactics are hamstringing the military at a tenuous time in the world. “The idea that some of these officers are supposedly woke or desk jockeys, it’s ridiculous,” said the Alaska Republican, who led the measure, adding the holdup is “a national security suicide mission.” He was joined by Republican Sens. JONI ERNST of Iowa, LINDSEY GRAHAM of South Carolina, TODD YOUNG of Indiana and MITT ROMNEY of Utah. During the lengthy floor fight Wednesday, Sullivan or one of his colleagues would call up each nominee by name, extolling their qualifications and, finally, ask for consent to vote to confirm them. Sullivan noted several times that Tuberville had previously said he’d agree to votes on individual nominees. But Tuberville wouldn’t back down, saying the Pentagon must repeal its abortion policy before he drops his hold. He rebuffed arguments from his fellow GOP senators that he’s hurting military readiness amid several crises, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s war against Hamas. “We’ll be coming here every night to try to get you confirmed,” Sullivan said in a message to military officers awaiting promotion. In a sign that senators widely agree on filling the vacancies, the Senate today easily confirmed Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI as chief of naval operations and Gen. DAVID ALLVIN as Air Force chief of staff, both in 95-1 votes.
| | | | GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | WILL BIDEN’S ISRAEL SUPPORT COST HIM MICHIGAN? Michigan’s Democrats are fearful that Biden might lose the state over his staunch support of Israel in its fight against Hamas, The Associated Press’ JOEY CAPPELLETTI reports. “The message has been relayed. We’ve had calls with the White House. We’ve had calls with DNC officials,” ABRAHAM AIYASH, the third-ranking Democrat in Michigan’s House of Representatives, told the AP. “We’ve been clear in saying the humanity should matter, but if that is not a calculation that you’re going to make in this moment, recognize that there will be electoral reverberations to this.” “Certainly none of us want to see part two of a [DONALD] TRUMP disaster presidency. But we also are not going to just passively give Joe Biden a second term if our concerns are not even dignified through a response,” Aiyash continued. Michigan is expected to be a crucial 2024 battleground, as Trump won it in 2016 only to see Biden put it back in the blue column four years later. Any margin of victory there could be razor thin, meaning any loss in support for Biden could benefit Trump in the end. DESANTIS’ UKRAINE TWO STEP: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said he would push European countries to increase their support for Ukraine and target U.S. aid for Kyiv’s military needs, not other government functions. “I would not do what Biden's doing, which is, you know, funding pensions for bureaucrats over there, funding salaries. They're funding small business stuff,” he told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” today. “As president, I’m going to leverage resources. I’m going to get the Europeans to do more.” “Our interest is bringing [the war] to an end in a way that keeps Russia in a box, but it’s not going to have us spend hundreds of billions of dollars for an outcome that's not much different than where we are now,” he continued. DeSantis has tried to walk the line between the America First and Republican establishment positions on Ukraine. He wants to be painted neither as pro- nor anti-Ukraine. He’s advocating for what he deems is in America’s interest above all, which is pushing back on Russia but not giving Kyiv so much that it takes resources for other priorities. “The reality is we need to set priorities. We don't have the ability to just flood every part of the world,” he said, citing support for Israel and confronting China in the Indo-Pacific.
| | | |   | | | | | CHAT GPT-EETH: Two senators are introducing a bill today to give Biden’s new executive order on artificial intelligence teeth, our own REBECCA KERN and BRENDAN BORDELON report. The bill from Senate Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and Sen. JERRY MORAN (R-Kan.) would require federal agencies to follow the safety standards developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology earlier this year. While Biden’s order nods several times to NIST’s AI framework, it stops short of requiring all federal agencies to adopt its provisions. If it is signed into law, the measure would have more lasting power than an executive order, which could be rescinded by a future administration. IRAN EYEING U.S.: Washington is prepping for a potential onslaught of Iranian cyberattacks in retaliation for support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas, our own MAGGIE MILLER reported Wednesday evening. It’s far from just Israel at risk of cyberattacks from the Hamas-aligned regime’s cyber operatives, U.S. officials told Maggie. They also see the U.S. and other nations that support the Israeli government as likely targets. Those attacks could take the form of attempting to damage critical systems like water or electricity, would likely involve widespread disinformation efforts and could also involve proxies to keep Iran’s fingerprints off the incidents. Read: Sunak defends China invite at AI summit while facing down Tory hawks by our own VINCENT MANANCOURT
| | PULSING POLAND: Poland is set to change governments soon, but the incoming administration isn't planning any major revolution in procurement, defense spending or military posture, our own WOJCIECH KOŚĆ reports. “We’re not going to cancel any contracts. We don’t want our allies to view Poland as unpredictable,” said TOMASZ SIEMONIAK, who served as defense minister from 2011 to 2015 and is seen as a potential candidate to return to the post, told Wojciech. Siemoniak is senior member of the Civic Coalition grouping led by DONALD TUSK, the candidate to be prime minister of three opposition parties that together have a majority in the new parliament. Tusk has been silent on defense issues, but Siemoniak's views are shared by other parts of the future ruling coalition.
| | WANTED: LONGER-RANGE MISSILES: Top Republicans on the foreign relations and armed services committees are urging Biden to send longer-range missiles to Kyiv, arguing that the already delivered ATACMS aren’t enough. "Ukraine's requirement for deep-strike capability remains urgent, particularly to range targets throughout Crimea," Reps. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) along with Sens. JAMES RISCH (R-Idaho) and ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) wrote in a Wednesday letter obtained by Reuters’ PATRICIA ZENGERLE. Ukrainian forces used U.S.-provided medium-range ATACMS for the first time in October. The Biden administration was concerned the move could cause Russia to escalate the war, but the lawmakers said that hasn’t happened. And since Kyiv has proven they can use the missiles, longer-range ones should be provided, they added. "Clearly, it is time for you to finish the job on ATACMS," the lawmakers wrote. HARDENING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA: Yesterday, we wrote about how a group of 21 House members are urging national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN to curb advanced machine tool exports to Russia. The National Security Council responded three minutes before we published the newsletter, so we wanted to get ADRIENNE WATSON’s full reply in today’s edition. “The United States and our G7 partners have banned the export and re-export of advanced machine tools to Russia to undercut Putin’s ability to wage war on Ukraine. We are actively targeting companies and individuals that violate these prohibitions, including via enforcement actions, new sanctions, and entity listings,” she said. “We are also working with partners around the world to do the same, and we will continue to engage the Global Export Control Coalition we established with partners across 39 countries, including in Europe and Asia, to stem Russia’s procurement of sensitive items.” On Thursday, the Treasury Department hardened sanctions on 130 Russian evasion and military-industrial targets, as NatSec Daily also previewed yesterday. Those targets are in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, indicating Russia has a third-country operation to get the materials it needs to keep its military equipped. “Today’s actions demonstrate our further resolve in continuing to disrupt every link of [the] Russian military supply chain, and target outside actors who would seek to support Russia’s war effort,” Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said in a statement.
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | DEMOCRACY IS IN BAD SHAPE: Democracy around the world is in record decline amid a surge in authoritarianism, according to a report out today from the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. Hard-line rule by current and former leaders, including VIKTOR ORBÁN in Hungary, Trump in the U.S. and RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN in Turkey, has contributed to the downturn observed in the past few years, the Global State of Democracy 2023 report found, per our own LAURA HÜLSEMANN. “The erosion of democratic norms has been engineered by leaders claiming to speak in the name of, and with the authority of, the people,” the report warned. The six-year decline is the longest consecutive period of deterioration — in which countries with net declines outnumbered those with net advances across a range of metrics — since records started being kept in 1975, SEEMA SHAH, the head of IDEA’s Democracy Assessment Unit, told Laura.
| | — MARY THORNTON has joined the Semiconductor Industry Association as vice president of global policy. Thornton most recently served as head of trade and export controls policy at Amazon Web Services.
| | — NANCY SCOLA, POLITICO: Biden’s Elusive AI Whisperer Finally Goes On the Record. Here’s His Warning. — ED KILGORE, New York Magazine: Will a Backlash to Biden Over Israel Risk His Reelection? — CAROLINE LOGAN, RANDY BORUM and PAUL GILL, UCL Press: Violent Extremism
| | — The RAND Corporation's National Security Research Division, 9:30 a.m.: A new approach to power projection: Reversing the erosion of U.S. and allied military power and influence — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The 2023 Counter Ransomware Initiative — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Gaza, Israel and the 2023 war: Are there any 'red lines'? — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Canada's role in global maritime security — The Wilson Center's Middle East Program, 11 a.m.: Israel-Hamas war: senior diplomats assess the next phase and regional impacts — The Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: Joining forces: Veteran perspectives on cyber and tech workforce development — The American Security Project, 12 p.m.: Combating the military obesity crisis Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, with whom we’ve long been at a stalemate. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who can win any conflict she’s in.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
