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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward | |  Secretary of State Antony Blinken talks to the media after his meetings with his Turkish counterparts, as he departs from Ankara Esenboga Airport in Ankara, on November 6, 2023. | Pool photo by Jonathan Ernst | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Maggie Miller Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN appeared to confirm over the weekend a long-standing Israeli claim that sections of Hamas’ sprawling tunnel network are under schools, hospitals and mosques. “Hamas cynically, monstrously embeds itself in the midst of civilians; puts its fighters, its commanders, its weapons, its ammunition, command and control in residential buildings, under schools and in schools, under hospitals and in hospitals, under mosques and in mosques — monstrous,” he said during a joint news conference with three Middle Eastern leaders on Saturday. The comment flew under the radar for understandable reasons. It’s long been known that Hamas embeds much of its military infrastructure within the civilian population, making it harder for Israel not to kill innocents when it attacks the group. Israel released intelligence before and after Blinken’s comment purporting to show a tunnel entrance under a large hospital. Last year, the United Nations discovered a “man-made cavity” beneath one of its schools. And the density of Gaza makes it near impossible for Hamas to build tunnels that don’t go under such places. Still, multiple experts told NatSec Daily that, to date, there had been few non-Israeli, high-level confirmations of the location of Hamas’ tunnels. That makes the remarks by Blinken, whose tenure atop the State Department has been defined by carefully calibrated statements, all the more surprising — even if the information he discussed wasn’t shocking. “It is a known thing from human intelligence, years of Palestinian informants, and satellite imagery,” said JOHN SPENCER, chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute. There is nothing concrete and irrefutable to point to outside of Israeli intelligence claims, “but I imagine that will be impossible until the [Israel Defense Forces] get there and show the world, something I expect the IDF will do,” Spencer added. Asked about Blinken’s remarks, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said “the secretary based his comments on extensive information available to the U.S. government — some public, some not.” No one NatSec Daily spoke to suggested there was anything wrong with Blinken’s statement. He said something that U.S. officials and experts agreed was a near certainty. There was also no risk for U.S. intelligence gathering as nothing about sources and methods was revealed. DANIEL BYMAN, author of a book about Israel’s counterterrorism history, expects we’ll get a definitive answer soon. He said: “It will be disproven in the weeks to come if Israel is lying, and thus a risky lie.”
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Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more. | | | | | CUT OFF: Israel’s military said today it cut off Gaza City, the strip’s most populous area, from the rest of the enclave. “We’ve completed our encirclement, separating Hamas strongholds in the north and the south, and it’s proving to be effective,” said Lt. Col. RICHARD HECHT, a military spokesman. “It’s close-quarters urban warfare. A lot of infantry working there.” Israeli forces say the city is where Hamas has most of its command centers and fighters. Israel ordered people in Gaza to travel southward to move as far away from the bombings and intense fighting as possible, though movement is limited due to Hamas roadblocks, reduced connectivity, destroyed infrastructure and the fact that no residents can leave the enclave. The Hamas-led Gaza Health Ministry said the civilian death toll has surpassed 10,000. Gaza over the weekend also experienced its third major internet and telecom blackout in the past two weeks. “We have been in touch with the Israeli government and we understand there can be operational reasons for temporary outages, but these should be rare and short in duration,” a U.S. official, granted anonymity to disclose sensitive conversations, told our own MAGGIE MILLER. “As we’ve said before, it is important for aid workers, civilians, and journalists to communicate with each other,” the official said. “We understand communication will be fully restored soon.” A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces declined to comment on telecoms being down. On Sunday, The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY reported that Israel is trying to convince countries that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza should relocate to Egypt during the war. “Israeli leaders and diplomats have privately proposed the idea to several foreign governments, framing it as a humanitarian initiative that would allow civilians to temporarily escape the perils of Gaza for refugee camps in the Sinai Desert,” Kingsley wrote. “The suggestion was dismissed by most of Israel’s interlocutors — who include the United States and Britain — because of the risk that such a mass displacement could become permanent.” Intense U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East continues, with Blinken making surprise visits to the West Bank and Iraq before traveling to Turkey. That concluded a whirlwind trip to the region to try to build support for a so-called humanitarian pause in the war, but it doesn’t appear he got countries to agree. CIA Director BILL BURNS is now in the Middle East to discuss getting more humanitarian aid into Gaza, securing the release of hostages and how to prevent the war from widening. Eighteen U.N. humanitarian leaders today called on Israel to accept humanitarian pauses as it retaliates against Hamas. “We need an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. It’s been 30 days. Enough is enough. This must stop now,” reads the joint statement signed by aid chief MARTIN GRIFFITHS, World Food Programme director CINDY McCAIN and World Health Organization Director-General TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS. On Sunday evening, U.S. Central Command posted that an Ohio-class submarine “arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.” It’s rare for the U.S. to announce where they are, so the move and announcement are clearly a signal to Iran and others that, in addition to the two U.S. aircraft carriers in the region and along with the complement of destroyers and cruisers, there is at least one sub loaded with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles close by. ‘WE HOLD THE INITIATIVE’: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is still doing damage control after discouraging comments from a top officer, appearing on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday to claim his country was still advancing in the war against Russia. “We hold the initiative in our hands,” he told host KRISTEN WELKER. “Some spheres, Kristen, we see steps forward. Sometimes they are slow steps because of the landmines, which Russia planted there while we were preparing for a counter-offensive. And in some spheres, we have problems with the air … And without the air defense, our steps forward are slow.” Zelenskyy spoke after the top Ukrainian military officer, Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNYY, last week said the war was at a “stalemate” that wouldn’t allow for Kyiv to punch through Russia’s defensive positions. That remark led some Republicans to question giving Ukraine billions in more military aid, which President JOE BIDEN has asked Congress to authorize. “I don't think that this is a stalemate,” Zelenskyy asserted. “Our military [is] coming up with different plans, with different operations in order to move forward faster and to strike [the] Russian Federation unexpectedly.” Attention on Ukraine’s defense against Russia has slipped worldwide since the Israel-Hamas fight began, compelling Zelenskyy to boost his efforts to rally global support for his cause. Refuting his top general’s comments has complicated that task. MORE PUTIN: Contain your surprise, but Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN plans to stay in power until at least 2030, Reuters’ GUY FAULCONBRIDGE reports. Putin, 71, will run in March’s presidential election, which is expected to be rigged in his favor. Regardless, it’ll be another sign that the Russian czar will remain in the Kremin even after the Wagner Group’s mutiny proved the biggest challenge to his leadership in years. “While many diplomats, spies and officials have said they expect Putin to stay in power for life, there has until now been no specific confirmation of Putin's plans to stand for re-election,” Faulconbridge wrote. “Diplomats say there is no serious rival who could threaten Putin's chances at the ballot box.” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV noted Putin had yet to speak on the issue but didn’t deny the report in a statement to Reuters: “The campaign has not been officially announced yet." IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | CHINA-LINKED FIRM NEAR FLORIDA BASE: The subsidiary of a Chinese company expanded its operations about 15 miles from a military base in Florida — and RON DeSANTIS’ opponents are using it against him. A Sunday story by The New York Post’s DIANA GLEBOVA revealed that “Cirrus Aircraft — a subsidiary of Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC) of China — opened two new locations in central Florida in 2022. One of those was at the Orlando Executive Airport, 12.7 miles away from the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division.” The campaign team for former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. NIKKI HALEY blasted out this piece to its listserv to paint the Florida governor as soft on China. Confronting China is a major plank of DeSantis’ foreign policy pitch. There were two important caveats in the story, however. One: “The state of Florida has not provided any taxpayer subsidies or other incentives to Cirrus or its parent company.” And two: “There is no sign the U.S. government will crack down on Cirrus anytime soon, and the federal government has not accused the company of any wrongdoing.”
| | | |   | | | | | BUY OUR AI: While other countries have adopted artificial intelligence-run weapons for warfare, tech startups are having a harder time convincing the U.S. military of the need for such platforms. The biggest issue, The New York Times’ ERIC LIPTON reports, is for companies to solve the thorny tech challenges AI-led weapons pose. The other is cracking the Pentagon’s procurement code, which already gives contracting primes like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX a massive advantage. Shield AI, the startup profiled in the story, has hired a lobbying team to add “around $30 million to the Pentagon budget that could be used to help fund contracts that Shield AI could tap into, or at least to promote creation of a new Pentagon office that would help push progress on building autonomous systems.” FRANK KENDALL, secretary of the Air Force, told the NYT that Congress has been slow to approve the service’s planes to build 1,000 robot drones to accompany troops in battle. “I’ve got a long list of things I want to buy and I can’t buy right now,” he said. Last week, the White House announced that 31 countries joined the U.S.-led declaration for the responsible military use of AI and autonomy.
| | PRINT MY SUB: The U.S. Navy feels confident that 3D printing will help build America’s submarine fleet, allowing the service to overcome long-standing manufacturing woes. “The Additive Manufacturing Center of Excellence,” Defense News’ MEGAN ECKSTEIN reports, “represents the future of the submarine industry — and perhaps the service’s only path to building the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine and Virginia-class attack submarine on time.” Further enhancing 3D printing is one of five focus areas in a recent $2.3 billion investment to boost the submarine-industrial base. To make one Columbia- and two Virginia-class submarines every single year, MATT SERMON, the executive director at the Navy’s Program Executive Office Strategic Submarines, told Defense News that 3D printing “is a manufacturing capacity imperative.” There are still challenges, experts pointed out in the story, namely that making a needed part with material on hand that works is still not guaranteed.
| | | | GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | HOLDING, OFFENSE: Senate Republicans will meet Tuesday afternoon to discuss the path forward on Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) blockade of military promotions, as GOP frustrations with the Alabama senator boil over. As our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!), Republicans haven’t yet coalesced around a plan. Democrats are counting on disaffected GOP senators joining their effort, led by SASC Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.), to allow most of the delayed promotions to be confirmed in a large batch through the end of next year. At least nine Republicans will need to join the effort to advance the resolution on the floor. But Republicans will be averse to any push seen as a Democratic effort to change the Senate rules. The measure first needs to be approved by the Senate Rules Committee, which could be ready to mark up the bill as soon as this week. SASC member TIM KAINE (D-Va.) told Morning D that the Senate should be using the symbolism of Veterans Day this Saturday to close a bipartisan deal on this solution. “It's moved a lot slower than I would wish. You know, there's been a deal afoot for a number of weeks, and I'm puzzled about it. I have been saying we should get this logjam broken before Veterans Day and the Marine Corps’ Birthday,” he said.
| | | DISSENT OF A WAR MAN: State Department staffers offered a blistering critique of the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in a dissent memo obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI, arguing that, among other things, the U.S. should be willing to publicly criticize the Israelis. The memo has two key requests: that the U.S. support a ceasefire, and that it balance its private and public messaging toward Israel, including airing criticisms of Israeli military tactics and treatment of Palestinians that the U.S. generally prefers to keep private. “We must publicly criticize Israel’s violations of international norms such as failure to limit offensive operations to legitimate military targets,” the message states. “When Israel supports settler violence and illegal land seizures or employs excessive use of force against Palestinians, we must communicate publicly that this goes against our American values so that Israel does not act with impunity.” The memo is marked “sensitive but unclassified.” It’s not clear how many people signed it or if and when it was submitted to the department’s Dissent Channel, where employees can voice policy disagreements. It’s also not clear if the document was revised in any way beyond the version Nahal obtained.
| | | | JOIN US ON 11/15 FOR A TALK ON OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: As the sustainability movement heats up, so have calls for a national standard for clean fuel. Join POLITICO on Nov. 15 in Washington D.C. as we convene leading officials from the administration, key congressional committees, states and other stakeholders to explore the role of EVs, biofuels, hydrogen and other options in the clean fuel sector and how evolving consumer behaviors are influencing sustainable energy practices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: The progressive Center for International Policy think tank has made two hires: SARA DuBOIS as vice president of communications and KELSEY ATHERTON to run the International Policy Journal.
| | | — JANET YELLEN, The Washington Post: There’s a way for the U.S. to compete with China — and to work with China — SUZANNE CLARK, USA Today: It's time for America's leaders to act on the global and national challenges before us — ALEXANDER MOTYL, Foreign Policy: The inevitable fall of Putin’s new Russian empire
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Project Atom Report Launch — Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: Fireside Chat with Hon. KATHLEEN HICKS, deputy secretary of Defense — George Washington University, 10 a.m.: NATO’s Strategic Challenges: A Conversation with SACT Gen. PHILIPPE LAVIGNE — Stimson Center and Princeton University, 10 a.m.: A New Era in Space: Global Governance for a Contested Space Domain — Hudson Institute, 10:30 a.m.: Unraveling North Korean Complexities: Security, Human Rights, and Diplomacy — Jewish Council for Public Affairs, 11 a.m.: Understanding and Countering Online Hate During the Israel-Gaza Conflict — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: The Impossible State Live Podcast: U.S.-Japan-ROK Relations: Next Steps After Camp David — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 11:15 a.m.: Markup on Various Measures — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11:30 a.m.: Is America Overstretched? A Conversation With Gen. DAVID PETRAEUS — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: After the Ukrainian Counter-Offensive — Atlantic Council and Our Secure Future, 12 p.m.: Assessing the 2023 U.S. Strategy on Women, Peace, and Security — Naval Submarine League, 12:30 p.m.: Annual Symposium and Industry Update — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1:30 p.m.: Hamas’ October 7 Attack: The Tactics, Targets, and Strategy of Terrorists Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who reveals all our secrets without giving a second thought. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is as discreet as they come.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
