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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  The civil war in Syria forced Hamas to move its political leadership to Qatar in 2012. | Karim Jaafar/AFP/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman After Hamas releases all of its hostages, the Biden administration will consider demanding that Qatar shutter the militant groups’ office in the country. Such a move, if executed, would be a significant reprimand for Hamas and an embarrassment for Qatar, the non-NATO ally that has served as a conduit for hostage talks with the militants. For the moment, the U.S. is directing all efforts at securing the release of the remaining hostages, supporting Israel’s retaliation and improving humanitarian conditions in Gaza. But serious internal talks on whether to make the demand of Qatar is expected, three U.S. officials told NatSec Daily, and early indications are Hamas will have to find a new home. “We have made clear that following Oct. 7 there can be no more business as usual with Hamas,” said a senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic matter. “This is a discussion we will continue to have with partners in the region.” But there’s a gnawing fear that closing Hamas’ political outpost would complicate any future backchannel between the U.S., Israel and the group. The civil war in Syria forced Hamas to move its political leadership to Qatar in 2012. The arrangement has long come under scrutiny, as some suggest the tiny Middle Eastern country is too cozy with Hamas and Iran and should be reprimanded for those relationships. “The time has come for an honest reflection on the role Qatar played in building up Hamas and the steps that will need to be taken to dismantle all Qatari support for Hamas going forward,” said RICHARD GOLDBERG, a former Trump National Security Council official now at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. In addition to ensuring the office’s closure, Goldberg suggests stripping Qatar of its non-NATO ally status or designating it a state sponsor of terrorism. Qatar has long argued such stances are unfair. MESHAL BIN HAMAD AL THANI, the country’s ambassador in the U.S., wrote in an October Wall Street Journal op-ed that the office relocated there “after a request from Washington to establish indirect lines of communication with Hamas.” If the U.S. asked for the Hamas office to operate in Qatar, it could effectively order it closed and have its leadership ejected. Qatar, home to a major American military airbase, could reject the demand, but U.S. officials and experts argue Doha would grant Washington’s wish. That’s not what Qatari officials are saying in public, however. “This channel has been very instrumental in countless deescalations that took place,” MAJED BIN MOHAMMAD AL ANSAR, spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign affairs ministry, told CNN last month. “As long as this channel is useful in creating peace, we have to have it, we can’t afford to lose it.” U.S. officials find the channel important, too, and it has proven crucial in seeing about a third of Hamas-held hostages released in recent days. Some expressed fear to NatSec Daily that Hamas, if kicked out, could find a home in a more hostile country like Syria or Iran. The group could still keep the lines of communication open, but in either case it would require the U.S. to work with designated state sponsors of terrorism to engage a designated foreign terrorist organization. But those concerns aren’t overpowering a sense in Washington that the status quo is unsustainable. Sen. TED BUDD (R-N.C.) argued Tuesday that after the hostage crisis is resolved, Hamas’ leadership in Qatar “should be extradited to the United States, so that these terrorists can face justice for killing and kidnapping American citizens in a U.S. court of law.” He called on the Middle Eastern partner to ensure the group’s honchos are “brought to justice for the despicable acts of terror they committed.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | TRUCE EXTENDED: Israel and Hamas agreed today to extend their temporary pause in fighting for an extra day, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. The pause, which had already been extended by two days earlier this week, was set to expire this morning. but was extended in a last-minute announcement until Friday morning. Israel has halted military activity and allowed humanitarian aid to enter into the Gaza strip in exchange for Hamas releasing 16 hostages, The Wall Street Journal’s STEPHEN KALIN, VIVIAN SALAMA and SUMMER SAID. Israel has also released Palestinians held in Israeli detention. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, who met with Israeli leaders and urged them to extend the pause, tweeted today that the truce “has demonstrated success in securing the freedom of hostages and in delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza” and that the U.S. wants “to see it continue.” Read: BENNY GANTZ eyes his moment to topple Israel’s Netanyahu by our own JAMIE DETTMER SUDAN CIVILIANS IN BATTLE: Civilians in Sudan are being forced by the warring sides to fight in the country’s ongoing civil war, The Washington Post’s KATHARINE HOURELD reports. Conditions in refugee camps outside Sudan are also so poor that men who have fled often return to the country, where they’re captured and forced into combat. In one case, the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group threatened to rape a mother and her daughter if the family’s husband and son didn’t join their ranks. More than 6 million people have fled Sudan in what the U.N. called one of the world’s “worst humanitarian crises.” Twenty-five million people need aid, and 19 million children are out of school, according to the organization. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– CARDIN PUSHES BLINKEN ON BAKU: Senate Foreign Relations Chair BEN CARDIN is upping pressure on ANTONY BLINKEN in a new letter urging that the secretary of State get tougher on Azerbaijani President ILHAM ALIYEV over Baku's “brazen campaign of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh.” The letter sent Wednesday marks the first time Cardin, known for human rights advocacy, is publicly confronting Blinken since he took over the gavel from Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) in September. The Maryland Democrat will not seek reelection at the end of his third term in 2024 and may be in a unique position to criticize the Biden administration. The new letter comes amid diplomatic friction between Washington and Baku after U.S. Assistant Secretary of State JAMES O’BRIEN criticized Azerbaijan’s actions in the Karabakh region during congressional testimony this month. In a Monday call with Aliyev, Blinken agreed to lift a ban on senior Azerbaijani officials visiting the United States. But Aliyev also warned Blinken in that conversation that U.S. diplomatic support for Armenia is risking the U.S.-Azerbaijani relationship. Cardin said it’s Aliyev who should be on the backfoot after his seizure last month of the largely ethnic Armenian-populated breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Cardin made clear he wanted repercussions since Baku’s assault “reportedly involved heinous atrocities,” while killing and wounding Armenian civilians, and driving 100,000 Armenians from their homes — all in breach of a November 2020 ceasefire. Cardin voiced fears Nagorno-Karabakh may erupt again, echoing warnings from civil society leaders. National Endowment for Democracy CEO DAMON WILSON argued Cardin’s letter is not a clash with Blinken, but leverage for him to address those concerns. Not only are there still Azerbaijani troops on Armenian territory but Baku is, internally, cracking down on its critics. “That’s an important factor when we want to see Azerbaijan not overplay its hand and encroach on Armenian sovereignty and stand down,” Wilson said of Cardin’s letter. “Those are things that Baku has to hear directly from Washington on.” REMEMBERING KISSINGER: HENRY KISSINGER’s death Wednesday night has prompted tributes from U.S. leaders — mostly from Republicans — on the life lived by the divisive diplomat who died at 100, our own KIERRA FRAZIER reports. Read: Henry Kissinger, diplomat who helped to reshape the world, dies at 100 by our own DAVID COHEN IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | NO HEADS UP ON DISINFO: The U.S. government has stopped sharing foreign intelligence on election interference with Meta, a major reversal in policy that could have security implications for the presidential election next year, our own REBECCA KERN and MAGGIE MILLER report (for Pros!). Meta is still sharing threat information with U.S. federal agencies — it just hasn’t gotten any intel in return from the government on foreign election threats since July, NATHANIEL GLEICHER, Meta’s head of security policy, told reporters in a briefing. That’s likely related to a July court order limiting the ways agencies can work with companies on content moderation — but stays on that order since mean the ban hasn’t fully been in effect In its quarterly threats report, Meta warns that countries including Russia, Iran and China are likely to target U.S. audiences with disinformation ahead of next year’s election — something that a lack of U.S. government threat sharing could impact.
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | NORTH KOREA THE THIEF: Since 2017, North Korea has stolen an estimated $3 billion worth of crypto through cyberattacks, with $1.7 billion stolen in 2022 alone, according to a new report from Recorded Future. And the illicit activity has been paying dividends for Pyongyang, funding up to 50 percent of its ballistic missile program, as our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. Despite its isolation from the rest of the world, North Korea has developed an extensive network of skilled cyber operators proficient in stealing and laundering digital dough. According to the report, that includes phishing campaigns, malware attacks and supply chain attacks to gain access to crypto wallets and exchanges. The regime has been spraying cyberattacks across the crypto industry, from large exchanges to individual users, venture capital firms and alternative tech. Read: France bans ministers from WhatsApp, Signal; demands French alternatives by our own MATHIEU POLLET and OCÉANE HERRERO
| | BROWN’S WARNING: Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN warned lawmakers about the impacts that a year-long continuing resolution would have on the U.S. military. “DOD has never operated under a year-long CR; it would be historically costly to the Joint Force,” Brown wrote in a Wednesday letter to Senate Appropriations Chair PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.), as our own CONNOR O’BRIEN flagged this morning. The Pentagon’s buying power would be “significantly impacted and degraded,” he wrote, adding that the measure would disrupt progress made by the department in the past year. Some impacts he noted include a $5.8 billion personnel funding shortfall, the Navy possibly losing an attack submarine contract, the DOD being unable to enact its multi-year missile procurement and a delay of nuclear modernization programs.
| | | |   | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– MEET ROMANIA’S PREZ: A bipartisan group of 10 senators have asked Biden to invite Romanian President KLAUS IOHANNIS to Washington or to travel to Bucharest before next year’s NATO summit. “Romania’s position as a key ally in the Black Sea region, where VLADIMIR PUTIN has tried to expand the Kremlin’s footprint, requires continued and robust bilateral engagement to strengthen the region’s democratic institutions, promote economic development and bolster regional and international security,” the lawmakers wrote in a Wednesday letter to the president, led by Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.). “A visit by the Romanian president or a visit to Romania will enhance our strategic relationship and cooperation on regional security engagement and reaffirm our friendship to the Romanian people.” Shaheen, who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Europe panel, has been pushing the administration to focus on the Black Sea, calling on the U.S. to develop a strategy for the region. A Biden-Iohannis meeting would elevate those issues, at least for a time. Romania, which has a presidential election next year, has also been a key partner in helping Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion.
| | ‘BLATANT HYBRID ATTACK’: Estonia’s foreign minister accused Moscow of orchestrating a “blatant hybrid attack” following a dramatic surge in the number of migrants from Africa and the Middle East arriving on the EU's eastern frontier, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports. In a statement Wednesday, MARGUS TSAHKNA said the Baltic nation is "prepared to close its border with Russia" if the situation continues. The growing crisis, he added, "is yet more proof that Russia is not fighting only in Ukraine; instead it poses a threat to other countries." At the same time, Estonian Interior Minister LAURI LÄÄNEMETS said the government was planning to deal with a potential rise in the number of crossings after Finland closed all of its checkpoints with Russia on Tuesday.
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MICHAEL TAM is leaving the White House where he has been policy adviser at the National Security Council, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He is heading to the Department of Commerce in the next few weeks. — ALEXANDER TAH-RAY YUI was appointed as Taiwan’s new representative in the U.S., our own PHELIM KINE reports in today’s “China Watcher.” Yui was just the democratic island’s top envoy to the European Union. The last Taiwan rep, BI-KHIM HSIAO, is a vice presidential candidate in upcoming elections. — HEATHER SAMUELSON is now senior confirmations counsel at the White House. She most recently was SVP for administration at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and previously worked at the State Department. — JONATHAN HOFFMAN is now VP for communications and marketing at The Citadel. He is the former head of public affairs and chief Pentagon spokesman at DOD under Secretary MARK ESPER and also worked for the Department of Homeland Security in the Trump administration and the Bush White House.
| | — BEN RHODES, The New York Times: Henry Kissinger, the hypocrite — BILL DREXEL and HANNAH KELLEY, POLITICO: Behind China’s plans to build AI for the world — MIKE POMPEO, Fox News: Team Biden is clueless about protecting America in an increasingly dangerous world
| | — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 5:30 a.m.: Assessing the impact of war on Ukraine's agriculture from space: a NASA Harvest assessment — The Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: U.S. national security and Ukraine with Reps. DON BACON and CHRISSY HOULAHAN — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: Book discussion on “Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Japan's foreign policy in 2024 — The Center for a New American Security, 12 p.m.: Safe @ Home, focusing on antisemitism in the U.S., the work of the Secure Community Network and the way forward to combat antisemitism and the accompanying outbreak in violence and aggression Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wants to shut this newsletter down. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is our first choice go between.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
