International criticism of Israel is ramping up

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Monday Dec 18,2023 09:07 pm
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By Matt Berg

President Joe Biden returns a salute from the stairs of Air Force One.

The Biden administration is taking note of the international community’s concerns as it navigates how to support its strongest partner in the Middle East. | Luis M. Alvarez/AP

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With help from Lara Seligman, Erin Banco, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman

There appears to be growing acknowledgement within the Biden administration that the White House’s unwavering support for Israel could impact the president’s standing in the U.S. and around the world.

“Diplomatic cost can be an intangible thing,” a senior administration official told The Washington Post’s KAREN DeYOUNG. While the U.S. wants countries to support its goals abroad and cooperate, “when public opinion in so many countries is hostile, it makes it harder to win support on issues we care about.”

Some stalwart U.S. allies are sounding much less supportive of Israel’s military operation.

On Saturday, British Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON and German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK called for a “sustainable cease-fire” in the Middle East, lamenting that “too many civilians have been killed” in the Israel-Hamas war. U.K.’s former Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE called Israel’s military operation “a killing rage.”

Part of the frustration with Israel stems from the difficulty of working with its right-wing government. Since the war broke out, top Israeli officials have been unwavering in their calls for a devastating military operation in Gaza and dismissing the idea of a two-state solution.

Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) blasted Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU after the Israeli leader said he was “proud” of his efforts to block the creation of a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu “has been an exceptionally difficult partner,” he said on CBS on Sunday.

A senior European diplomat made a similar comment in the WaPo story: “Although the scale of the Hamas attack … was more awful than anything Israel has ever seen, the pattern whereby Israel reacts and keeps on reacting even though we all ask them to stop, that’s not new.,”

It’s almost certain Israel will face more and more pressure if Palestinians continue to be killed in massive numbers as a result of the operation. Israel’s military said on Saturday that it accidentally killed three hostages — who were holding a white flag — contributing to the international pushback.

After speaking with top officials in Israel today, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said the U.S. has “some great thoughts about how to transition from high-intensity operations to lower-intensity and more surgical operations,” for which the U.S. is now pushing.

But Austin also emphasized the plight of the Palestinians, proving that the Biden administration is taking note of the international community’s concerns as it navigates how to support its strongest partner in the Middle East.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
The Inbox

CIA’S HOSTAGE PUSH: CIA Director BILL BURNS is in Warsaw today meeting with Israeli and Qatari officials about the more than 115 hostages still being held in Gaza, a U.S. official told our own ERIN BANCO.

U.S. officials have said they hope to strike another deal, potentially for the release of all remaining hostages, as Erin reported last week.

Burns is set to meet Mossad chief DAVID BARNEA and Qatari Prime Minister MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN AL THANI.

Talks stalled earlier this month when Hamas refused to release a contingent of female hostages it had previously agreed to let go. Fighting resumed and Israel began its offensive in southern Gaza. Since then, senior U.S. officials, including those at the State Department, the National Security Council and the CIA have tried to get negotiations back on track.

EMPTY POCKETS FOR UKRAINE? The U.S. will run out of funding for Ukraine this month if Congress does not act to pass President JOE BIDEN’s emergency supplemental spending request that has been stalled for weeks on Capitol Hill, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today.

The Biden administration plans to announce one more package of military aid to Ukraine this month, Kirby said, per our own LARA SELIGMAN. But after that, funding for Ukraine will dry up, he said.

The Pentagon still has $4.4 billion in presidential drawdown authority to provide weapons to Ukraine directly from Defense Department inventory, according to Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. GARRON GARN. But the weapons DOD can transfer to Ukraine are limited by the necessary funding to replenish U.S. stockpiles, and that’s what is almost gone.

Scroll down to On The Hill for more on Ukraine aid talks.

REPLICATOR WOES: The Defense Department doesn’t see the struggles to jumpstart its initiative to quickly field thousands of high-tech drones as a reason it won’t work, a top DOD official said after your anchor’s story on Sunday about the program, called Replicator.

“Replicator is all about change, and building new muscle that the nation requires us to build. If the processes were all already in place, and if this was easy, we would not have to do it,” Defense Innovation Unit Director DOUG BECK told yours truly in a statement.

The Replicator program has an ambitious timeline to develop high-tech, cheap drones within two years as a counterweight to China’s larger arsenal of traditional weapons. And the rollout has been “disorganized and confusing,” a tech company executive who attended a meeting last week at DIU’s headquarters told me.

Leaders from nine tech companies spoke with officials, including Beck and Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS. Each has been in talks with the Pentagon about Replicator, and each shared in the confusion.

“DOD’s leadership knows we need to keep getting better at driving innovation for the warfighter, fast, and that’s a central focus of our mission,” Beck said.

Hicks told attendees that she had been advised by stakeholders to move forward with Replicator regardless of funding, the executive said. But no one interviewed could explain how that’s possible.

“DOD has been clear that funding for Replicator capabilities is in the budget already, which is why we need Congress to pass appropriations for fiscal year 2024,” said a defense official, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

The Pentagon has met with or scheduled meetings with all lawmakers who have requested more information about Replicator.

KYIV’S BUG INFESTATION: Ukraine’s military found listening devices in the offices of top commander VALERY ZALUZHNY and other military officials, WaPo’s DAVID STERN and KOSTIANTYN KHUDOV report.

The bugs were discovered during a routine inspection of the offices over the weekend, Ukraine’s military wrote in a Facebook post. Zaluzhny told reporters that the devices were found in one of “several places” he works, and that he hadn’t “been there for a long time.”

Ukrainian news outlets reported that a criminal investigation has been opened, but there was no indication as to who may have placed the bugs or what conversations may have been recorded.

KIM’S ROCKET POWER: North Korea conducted its first intercontinental ballistic missile launch today, likely testing the country’s agile, developmental weapon days after the U.S. and South Korea agreed to update their nuclear deterrence efforts.

South Korean officials said the launch was a solid-fuel rocket, which could be Pyongyang’s Hwasong-18 ICBM that’s harder to detect than liquid-fueled weapons, The Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM and MARI YAMAGUCHI report. It flew about 620 miles before landing between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

After the launch, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN spoke with his South Korean counterparts, condemning the test as a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban North Korea’s ballistic activities.

ICYMI — U.S. weighs strike options to deter Houthis from more Red Sea attacks by Lara and Alex

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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2024

TRUMP’S DREAM TEAM: If DONALD TRUMP is re-elected president, he’ll likely handpick his closest allies and supporters to fill key national security appointments — a move that would grant far more freedom to enact isolationist policies.

That’s according to Reuters, which interviewed nearly 20 current and former aides and diplomats to get an inside look at Trump’s thinking. With loyalists in the Pentagon, State Department and CIA among other agencies, he’d be able to make sweeping changes on issues from Ukraine to China, and alter the federal institutions that stand in the way of his foreign policy whims, they said.

"President Trump came to realize that personnel is policy," ROBERT O'BRIEN, Trump's fourth and final national security adviser, told Reuters. "At the outset of his administration, there were a lot of people that were interested in implementing their own policies, not the president's policies."

If he takes office, Trump would soon cut defense aid to Europe and shrink economic ties with China, the aides added. He also could move forward with using military force against drug cartels in Mexico — a tactic former Defense Secretary MARK ESPER challenged him on.

Keystrokes

OPENAI’S MAGIC BALL: OpenAI is adopting a framework to track and prepare for what it sees as potential “catastrophic risks” posed by artificial intelligence models.

The “Preparedness Framework,” unveiled in a blog post and 27-page document Monday, details how the ChatGPT maker will “develop and deploy our frontier models safely.” Among the steps OpenAI will take are running evaluations to assess risk, searching for “unknown categories of catastrophic risk,” and limiting deployment of models deemed too high risk.

“The study of frontier AI risks has fallen far short of what is possible and where we need to be,” the company wrote.

MIT AI professor ALEKSANDER MADRY will also head the “Preparedness” team, a group announced in October to monitor OpenAI’s technology and flag any potential dangers, according to The Washington Post’s GERRIT DE VYNCK. The team will hire AI researchers, computer scientists, policy professional and national security experts to help with the effort.

OpenAI launched the framework weeks after its board ousted CEO SAM ALTMAN over reported safety concerns before he was reinstated days later. Most of the board members who worked to remove Altman have since resigned.

The effort comes as U.S. lawmakers have struggled to regulate artificial intelligence, while Europe leads the world in passing laws that place guardrails on the tech. Last week, Pope Francis called for a global treaty to regulate AI, a move that Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said Washington is not ready for.

ICYMI — Think tank tied to tech billionaires played key role in Biden’s AI order by our own BRENDAN BORDELON

The Complex

BERLIN‘S NATO PREP: Germany is permanently basing thousands of troops about 60 miles from the border with Russia and right in the line of fire if the Kremlin ever launches an attack on NATO territory, our own CALEB LARSON reports.

German Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS signed a deal with his Lithuanian counterpart ARVYDAS ANUŠAUSKAS, firming up the conditions on which 4,800 German troops and 200 civilians will be based in the Baltic country.

"With this war-ready brigade, we are assuming a leadership responsibility here in the alliance and on NATO's eastern flank," Pistorius said. "The speed of the project clearly shows that Germany understood the new security reality.”

BIG BUCKS IN 2024: American defense contractors are expecting a big bump in profits next year as the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars continue with no end in sight, Reuters’ MIKE STONE reports.

One example: The Pentagon wants 100 more Patriot missile interceptors for next year than it acquired this year. Each one costs about $4 million, which would mean a $400 million revenue boost from one weapons system alone.

Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman shares are expected to grow between 5 percent and 7 percent over the next year.

 

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On the Hill

NEW YEAR, SAME TALKS: Senate negotiations over the border are almost certainly going to continue into January, based on comments from several senators involved in those talks, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports.

The lead negotiators — Sens. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) — consistently asserted that they'd made steady progress in those talks. But they also routinely tossed around words like complex, arcane and byzantine. Reading between the lines, it's obvious all sides think they still have a ways to go in drafting border security language.

Some Republicans are standing firm: “I will not help Ukraine, Taiwan, or Israel until we secure a border that's been obliterated,” Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) told NBC News’ KRISTEN WELKER on Sunday.

Graham said he has no faith a deal will be made by year’s end, explaining that "we feel like we're being jammed. We're not anywhere close to a deal."

As lawmakers fought over greelighting aid, Ukraine’s military scaled back some of its operations due to a lack of artillery shells on the frontline, Brig. Gen. OLEKSANDR TARNAVSKYI told Reuters’ OLENA HARMASH and TOM BALMFORTH.

Broadsides

TRUMP’S ‘HATE AND CRUELTY’: The White House condemned Trump for trying to “tear Americans apart with hate and cruelty” with his assertion at a weekend campaign rally that immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country,” our own CRAIG HOWIE and EUGENE DANIELS reported Sunday evening.

“Echoing the grotesque rhetoric of fascists and violent white supremacists and threatening to oppress those who disagree with the government are dangerous attacks on the dignity and rights of all Americans, on our democracy, and on public safety,” White House spokesperson ANDREW BATES said Sunday. “It’s the opposite of everything we stand for as Americans.”

The statement came a day after the Biden campaign also took aim at Trump and compared his caustic remarks to those of Adolf Hitler.

Former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE also laid into Trump on Sunday for the comments, saying that “he’s becoming crazier.”

Read: Bulgaria votes to scrap sanctions opt-out that raked in $1B for Putin by our own VICTOR JACK

Transitions

DAN SHAPIRO, the former ambassador to Israel, will replace DANA STROUL as the Pentagon’s top official overseeing Middle East policy, a current and a former DOD official told Lara and Matt. Shapiro served as ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017, and will take over as deputy assistant secretary of defense after Stroul steps down later this month.

BRETT LEVI KLEIMAN is now press secretary for the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. He most recently was deputy press secretary for Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.).

— Microsoft promoted ROBERT BLAIR from senior director to general manager for national missions and emerging technology.

What to Read

–– ANNE APPLEBAUM, The Atlantic: Give Russia’s frozen assets to Ukraine now

–– KHALED ELGINDY, Foreign Affairs: A Palestinian revival

–– ADRIAN KARATNYCKY, POLITICO: Ukraine needs a government of national unity

Tomorrow Today

The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: Discussion on open source intelligence and analytic tradecraft with LINDA WEISSGOLD, former deputy director of CIA for analysis

The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Global actors in the war in Israel and Gaza

The Government Executive Media Group, 11 a.m.: Revolutionizing defense: The DOD's path toward cloud modernization

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance under Trump 2

The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: The Israel-Hamas war and its impact on domestic and foreign policy with Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is always confusing and disorganized.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is definitely on the same page as us.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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