|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  On Tuesday, President Joe Biden offered his full-throated support for sending more military aid to Ukraine, even though congressional squabbling over border policy could keep weapons shelved in America. | Evan Vucci/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Hans von der Burchard For nearly two years, Western leaders have expressed supreme confidence that support for Ukraine would last until the last Russian soldier went home. But in comments over the last two days, they appear to have lost a bit of faith. On Tuesday, President JOE BIDEN offered his full-throated support for sending more military aid to Ukraine, even though congressional squabbling over border policy could keep weapons shelved in America. “We’re in negotiations to get funding we need. Not making promises, but hopeful we can get there — I think we can,” he said, standing alongside Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY at the White House. The administration will back Kyiv for “as long as we can,” Biden said — a remark notably falling short of his prior refrain of “as long as it takes.” A big group of key senators called Biden Tuesday to demand he get more involved in the talks, a person close to the negotiations told NatSec Daily. A second person confirmed that Biden was more engaged in negotiations today, adding that’s the only way a deal can get over the finish line. Both were granted anonymity to detail the sensitive development. Then this morning, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ offered his own strong statements about how Berlin would stand by Kyiv, including doubling military aid next year to $8.5 billion. But he also said the Kremlin’s goal is to keep the pressure on Ukraine until Western support wanes. “Putin is still determined to bring Ukraine to its knees by military force. And he is counting on international support for Ukraine waning,” he told German lawmakers in the Bundestag. “Unfortunately, the danger that this calculation could work out cannot be dismissed out of hand.” It’s hard to see those comments, by two of the most important pro-Ukraine coalition leaders no less, as anything but expressions of pessimism. There’s a growing sense Ukraine won’t continue to get the support to which it had grown accustomed, leaving Kyiv less equipped to face Russian forces that aren’t relenting despite massive losses. That could erode any credibility the U.S. and its allies built up after their response to Russia’s invasion and, politically, harm Biden’s reelection argument that he has a handle on foreign policy. “It sounds like the leaders of some of the key countries are not confident they have the political support to continue their robust assistance to Ukraine,” said EVELYN FARKAS, executive director of The McCain Institute at Arizona State University. “This is not a time for any kind of hedging language.” But conversations with U.S. and European officials indicate the expressions of concern were momentary and not indicative of some larger transatlantic malaise. A majority of Republicans and Democrats in Congress are likely to approve $61 billion in further military assistance for Ukraine. Their yay votes will just be delayed until a border-policy deal is reached. “We see how difficult the discussions are in Congress but we are confident in a plausible positive outcome … most probably in the beginning of next year,” said a European official. And skepticism could be colored by tough negotiations over whether to eventually welcome Ukraine into the European Union. Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN, for the moment, is preventing talks from starting. “The Hungarian position is that if we want to give Ukraine support, a geopolitical signal, then let’s give — but that’s not membership. Let’s leave membership as what it is,” he told a pro-government podcast in an episode that aired today. Still, the message some argue could be taken from the Biden and Scholz comments, as well as the political turmoil in the U.S. and Europe, is that Western resolve is finite — and can be outlasted by adversaries. That’s not how others see it. “As the conflict gets longer and the figures get larger, it is getting more challenging,” said a second European official. “But the overall picture of Western unity and commitment is strong.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more. | | | | | HOSTAGE FAMILIES MEET WITH BIDEN: Biden met with the families of eight Americans believed to be held hostage by Hamas today, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily. All eight families of the officially “unaccounted for” joined either in person or online for their second session with the commander in chief, the first time they were able to do so in person. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and deputy national security adviser JON FINER also participated. “We are encouraged by our conversation today, and we urged President Biden to continue doing everything in his power to negotiate a swift and total release of the remaining hostages,” the families said in a statement. CNN reports that Hamas has not responded to efforts to get hostage-release talks back on track. “There’s not an active negotiation, but there’s a real exploration of ideas for how to get this going,” a senior U.S. official told MJ LEE, ALEXANDER MARQUARDT and JEREMY DIAMOND. Meanwhile, the U.S. and U.K. imposed new sanctions on Hamas officials, this time targeting eight individuals including Hamas Shura Council member ISMAIL MUSA AHMAD BARHUM. The Pentagon won’t look into reports of Israel using white phosphorus in Lebanon, DOD spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER said today, even though the White House previously noted it was “concerned” by those reports. Read: White House is working ‘24 hours a day’ to get US hostages out of Gaza, say family members by our own ADAM CANCRYN KYIV UNDER ATTACK: Russia launched a barrage of ballistic missiles at Kyiv today, injuring 53 people, including six children, in its continued assault on the Ukrainian capital. “Loud explosions jolted many residents out of bed around 3 a.m. in central Kyiv, followed by air raid alert sirens a few minutes later. Ukraine’s air force said that antiaircraft defenses shot down all 10 ballistic missiles that were launched at Kyiv,” The Washington Post’s DAVID STERN reports. The strikes followed a large cyberattack on Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest mobile and internet service provider, which cut off service to 24 million customers. Yesterday, NatSec Daily reported that Zelenskyy revealed he only had a “handful” of Patriot air-defense missiles to protect Kyiv. He’d like at least “a dozen” more to defend major cities like Kherson or Odesa. LONG TIME NO TALK: Biden and his Chinese counterpart XI JINPING last month touted an agreement to resume military communications as a step toward better relations. But almost four weeks later, the two sides appear no closer to ending the 16-month standoff between defense teams. A significant hurdle is the fact that Xi has yet to appoint a new minister of defense to replace Gen. LI SHANGFU, who was ousted in October, U.S. officials told our own LARA SELIGMAN and PHELIM KINE. That means that Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has no counterpart to call or meet with — and Beijing has not yet offered up a suitable replacement. DOD officials say logistical conversations are taking place in order to get the senior leader meetings on the schedule. But some expressed frustration at the lack of progress, blaming stonewalling from the Chinese side. “We’ve seen a long list of excuses and delays over the past two years,” a DOD official told our colleagues. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | LET THEM HAVE NUKES: DONALD TRUMP is considering a plan to let North Korea keep its nuclear weapons and offer its regime financial incentives to stop making new bombs should he win in 2024, Alex reports. The idea involves enticing North Korea to freeze its nuclear program and stop developing new weapons, in exchange for relief from economic sanctions and some other form of aid. It would also require the creation of a verification mechanism to ensure North Korea keeps its word. In essence, Trump may be prepared to give up on even attempting to convince North Korean leader KIM JONG UN to dismantle his country’s nuclear weapons. At least part of his motivation, people familiar with Trump’s thinking told Alex, would be to avoid wasting time on what he sees as futile arms talks — and focus instead on the larger task of competing with China. Trump, one of the people said, is highly motivated to get an agreement with North Korea. “He knows he wants a deal,” this person said of Trump. “What type of deal? I don’t think he has thought that through.” Trump reacted to the story in a Truth Social post: “A Fake News article in Politico, through anonymous sources (as usual!), states that my views on Nuclear Weapons in North Korea have softened. This is a made up story, DISINFORMATION, put out by Democrat Operatives in order to mislead and confuse. The only thing accurate in the story is that I do get along well with Kim Jong Un!”
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | ‘HIGH RISK’: British lawmakers have warned that swathes of the United Kingdom’s critical national infrastructure are vulnerable to ransomware attacks, which the government is ill-prepared to fend off, our own VINCENT MANANCOURT reports. In a report published today, the U.K. parliament’s joint committee on national security warns the U.K. is unprepared for the “‘high risk’ of a catastrophic ransomware attack,” which could cause “severe disruption” to the delivery of government services. Such attacks have the potential to “bring the country to a standstill,” the report says. It also calls on the Foreign Office to investigate legal sanctions against Russia, just over a week after the U.K. government accused Moscow of conducting a “sustained” cyberattack against it. “If the U.K. is to avoid being held hostage to fortune, it is vital that ransomware becomes a more pressing political priority, and that more resources are devoted to tackling this pernicious threat to the U.K.’s national security,” said Labour MP MARGARET BECKETT, who chairs the committee.
| | | JUMPING AT JOE: Democratic lawmakers are frustrated over Biden’s move to bypass Congress and approve the direct sale of tank shells to Israel, saying the administration needs to be more transparent about the weapons it’s sending to the Middle East ally, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, JOE GOULD and Lara report. The criticism from Democrats came after the State Department approved the sale of nearly 14,000 tank shells worth roughly $106 million from U.S. Army stocks on Friday. To do so, it made an emergency declaration under the Arms Export Control Act that skipped normal congressional review channels. “Do I have concerns? Yes, I do in regard to that,” said House Foreign Affairs ranking member Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), who added that he was informed ahead of the sale by the administration. “Not because it’s Israel or anyone else, because of any funding in that regards, it should come to us.” Meeks and the other leaders of the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees normally must sign off on foreign military sales. “For me, it’s systematic,” Meeks said. “There’s a reason Congress has oversight authority. And I want to make sure that oversight authority is continued.”
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | | SANDERS SAYS: Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) urged Biden to withdraw the $10.1 billion in military assistance to Israel that he has requested from Congress and support the recent U.N. resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian cease-fire. In a letter to the president on Tuesday, Sanders, who has pushed for the U.S. to put conditions on its military assistance to Israel, called Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip “immoral.” As such, Washington “must end our complicity in those actions,” he said. “A just cause for war does not excuse atrocities in the conduct of that war,” Sanders wrote. “Israel’s military campaign will be remembered among some of the darkest chapters of our modern history.” WHITE HOUSE WORRIES: Top Biden administration officials are scrambling to keep border talks alive as a deal with Senate Republicans over Ukraine funding has grown increasingly elusive, four people familiar with the talks told our own MYAH WARD last night. Department of Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, White House deputy chief of staff NATALIE QUILLIAN and SHUWANZA GOFF, director of the White House office of legislative affairs, on Tuesday afternoon met on the Hill with Senate negotiators — Sens. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.). The officials also met with staff from the offices of Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL. White House chief of staff JEFF ZIENTS, while not present as a negotiator Tuesday on the Hill, has also been heavily involved in Hill engagement in recent days, speaking with Democratic Senate negotiators, Schumer and Lankford several times, a senior administration official told Myah. The White House is “hustling,” one of the four people told Myah. “They’re pretty desperate at this point.”
| | | |   | | | | | ‘BLINDSIDED AND FURIOUS’: Those inside the DOD, the White House and all 18 intelligence agencies were entirely in the dark about the leaked Pentagon documents revealing sensitive intel earlier this year, leaving them “blindsided and furious,” a U.S. official told The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON and MISSY RYAN. When the intel spilled into the public, DefSec Austin created a department task force in an urgent effort to mitigate the damage, according to the report. As much as they tried, U.S. officials struggled for weeks to patch the leak, which revealed a sharp contrast with Washington’s optimistic messaging about Ukraine’s war efforts. Ultimately, the leak “hurt Ukraine’s relationship with its chief backer, the U.S. government,” the Post wrote, citing interviews with U.S. officials and a review of hundreds of documents.
| | — Taiwan’s longstanding Foreign Minister JOSEPH WU is stepping down from his post, opening up what’s “probably the most difficult foreign minister job in the world” amid Taipei’s tensions with China, he told The Wall Street Journal’s JOYU WANG. — LAURA DANIELS is starting at the National Security Council as Western Europe director. She most recently served as special assistant to State Department Counselor DEREK CHOLLET, where she focused on European issues. — Puck’s JULIA IOFFE reports that VICTORIA NULAND plans to resign from the State Department once KURT CAMPBELL is confirmed as the agency’s No. 2. Nuland was the acting deputy secretary of State for six months before Biden nominated Campbell for the role. “She’s not going to work for Kurt,” said one of her friends.
| | — KAJA KALLAS and PETTERI ORPO, POLITICO: Estonia and Finland: Stay the course with Ukraine and ensure freedom prevails — THOMAS FRIEDMAN, The New York Times: What worries me about the Gaza war after my trip to Arab states — MARK BOWDEN, The Atlantic: The most consequential act of sabotage in modern times
| | — The Hudson Institute, 8:30 a.m.: The B-21 bomber and its deterrence mission — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Looking ahead: emerging security issues in northeast Asia in 2024 — The United States Energy Association, 12 p.m.: The emerging cyber threats to industrial control systems — supply chain cybersecurity threats — The Middle East Institute, 12 p.m.: The Israel-Hamas war: the Iran factor — The Government Executive Media Group and Microsoft, 2 p.m.: Modernizing operations: the role of trusted artificial intelligence in the DOD Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, about whom we always express our pessimism. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, about whom we would never express pessimism.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
