BIDEN: BIBI SHOULD CHANGE: Biden said today that Israel is losing support in the war and that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU should consider changing his far-right government, the most critical comments made by the president since Israel retaliated for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. “This is the most conservative government in Israel’s history,” Biden said during a fundraiser, telling the audience the Israeli government “doesn’t want a two-state solution.” Netanyahu “has to change, and with this government, this government in Israel is making it very difficult for him to move,” Biden continued. Biden, in a two-month span, has gone from full-throated support for Israel to critical of the civilian harm its military has inflicted in Gaza to now calling for a shift in the country’s governance. For months, Biden and his team have quietly suspected that Netanyahu eventually could be ousted as the Hamas attack happened on his watch and clear intelligence signals of the militants’ plotting were reportedly ignored. There were earlier signs of a break between the U.S. and Israel, as Netanyahu said he would block the American plan to install the Palestinian Authority as the leaders of Gaza after Hamas’ defeat. “I will not allow the entry into Gaza of those who educate for terrorism, support terrorism and finance terrorism,” he said in a video posted to social media. “Gaza will be neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan.” DECLASSIFIED FOR KYIV: The U.S. has declassified intelligence on the situation in Ukraine to bolster the Biden administration’s case that Congress should further support Kyiv, timing the release with Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington, Alex and LARA SELIGMAN report. The U.S. assesses that Russia believes it is helped by a military stalemate with Ukraine that saps Western support for Kyiv, making its war easier to win. “Russia is determined to press forward with its offensive despite its losses,” National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said in a statement. “It is more critical now than ever that we maintain our support for Ukraine so they can continue to hold the line and regain their territory.” Another declassified U.S. intelligence memo, detailed to NatSec Daily by a person familiar with its contents, reveals Russia has lost 315,000 troops to death or injury out of its pre-war army of 360,000 — or 87 percent — requiring the Kremlin to mobilize the public and recruit furiously, including putting convicts on the front lines. Russia has also lost 2,200 of the 3,500 tanks it had before 2002, requiring the military to take Soviet-era equipment out of storage, like the T-62 tank. The declassifications come as Washington and Kyiv look for a new strategy to implement early next year to keep the money flowing and revive Ukraine’s war efforts, U.S. and Ukrainian officials told The New York Times. That includes increasing face-to-face military advice that the U.S. gives to Ukraine, and the Americans will push for a “conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year,” the Times writes. Ukraine, on the other hand, wants to go on the attack and catch the world’s attention. Officials from both countries told the Times that they hope to work out the strategy during war games scheduled to be held in Germany next month. Read: Is Putin winning? FIONA HILL says, ‘He’s about to. And it’s on us’ by our own MAURA REYNOLDS. WHERE’S NAVALNY? Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s main opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY has been missing for nearly a week from the penal colony where he was imprisoned, our own EVA HARTOG reports. In a series of tweets, Navalny spokesperson KIRA YARMYSH said she lost contact with him six days ago. She drew a connection to Putin’s announcement last week that he’s seeking re-election: “They just took him away as soon as Putin announced his nomination … What a coincidence.” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said Moscow has “neither the intention nor the ability to monitor the fate of prisoners and the process of their stay in the relevant institutions,” per ABC News’ PATRICK REEVELL. “We consider any intervention by anyone, including the United States of America, unacceptable and impossible.” JOSEP BORRELL, the European Union’s top diplomat, criticized the Kremlin today for Navalny’s disappearance, saying that “Russia’s political leadership is responsible for his safety & health in prison for which they will be held to account.” MIDDLE EAST UNREST: Israeli airstrikes overnight in southern Gaza, where residents had been told to seek shelter, killed at least 23 people, including seven children and six women, The Associated Press’ NAJIB JOBAIN, SAMY MAGDY and WAFAA SHURAFA report. Another 33 people, including 16 women and four children, were killed in strikes in central Gaza overnight, the AP reports. Many were killed as missiles hit residential buildings in a refugee camp as part of Israel’s expanded operation to overthrow Hamas in the walled territory. Israel has begun to fill Hamas’ tunnels with seawater, The Wall Street Journal reports, a technique used to clear and make the tunnels unusable. Meanwhile, WSJ also reports that the United Arab Emirates will only contribute support to rebuild Gaza if there is a serious path toward a two-state solution. As the U.S. worries about a wider war breaking out in the region, Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a cruise missile at a Norwegian-flagged tanker in the Red Sea, the latest attack by the Iran-backed militants targeting commercial vessels in the area, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. The group claimed responsibility for the attack. Houthi spokesperson YAHYA SARE'E claimed this morning that the tanker was "loaded with oil and headed to the Israeli entity.” Read: Gaza after nine weeks of war by The New York Times’ JOSH HOLDER, NEIL COLLIER and NATALIE RENEAU HUNGARY FOR AN INVITE: There was a secretive meeting at the Heritage Foundation yesterday that reportedly included allies of Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN, and our own NAHAL TOOSI got a hold of an invite to it. The event was marketed as “a small, professional, off-the-record discussion on bi-lateral Hungarian-US issues [which] will address key issues in the bilateral relationship with experts and policymakers,” per the invite. It was described as a Track 1.5 dialogue, which typically means current government officials — acting in a non-official capacity — and non-governmental experts would be involved. The gathering included panels titled “War Against Ukraine & What’s Next?” and “Transatlantic Culture Wars and Contemporary Politics in U.S. and Europe.” It was capped off with a dinner at the Hungarian embassy. Republican lawmakers were invited to attend the meeting, according to The Guardian. NatSec Daily wasn’t able to confirm who may have gone, but we know that Speaker MIKE JOHNSON wasn’t invited and didn’t attend, his spokesperson RAJ SHAH told us. The Guardian report described the overall event as lasting two days. The invitation we obtained covered only one day. Heritage Foundation spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment, and neither did Hungarian government officials. If you attended, send us a line! IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
|