Zelenskyy says he only has air defenses to protect Kyiv

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday Dec 13,2023 12:17 am
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By Alexander Ward, Paul McLeary and Matt Berg

President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still worried about a dearth of air defenses and will demand more from President Joe Biden during his visit to the American capital. | Evan Vucci/AP

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With help from  Daniel Lippman and Nahal Toosi

Ukraine only has a “handful” of air-defense missiles to protect Kyiv, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY privately told a group of analysts Monday night, adding that he’d like a few more to help protect major population centers under threat from Russia.

In the off-record conversation held at Ukraine’s embassy in Washington, Zelenskyy oozed confidence about his nation’s fight against Russia’s invasion, according to four people knowledgeable of his remarks, granted anonymity to detail a sensitive and private discussion. The war is not at a stalemate, he asserted, citing Ukraine’s naval forces pushing Russian vessels out of its territorial waters in the Black Sea and the resumption of normal maritime trade.

But the Ukrainian leader is still worried about a dearth of air defenses and will demand more from President JOE BIDEN during his visit to the American capital. The comments make clear that Zelenskyy is worried about the real-world applications of not getting a Ukraine-funding bill through Congress, fearful that military support from the U.S. and its Western partners will dry up as the Kremlin starts to feel more confident about its chances.

Zelenskyy said all of Ukraine’s Patriot missile interceptors have only been placed around Kyiv to defend the capital against Russian attacks. The Ukrainian president wouldn’t say how many the military had at its disposal — Zelenskyy only used the word “handful” — but he did note he would like “a dozen” more to protect key cities like Kherson and Odesa.

Zelenskyy didn’t preview if he intended to ask Biden for more Patriot missiles during his visit today to the White House, but his administration has long spoken about a dire need for air-defense systems and, separately, long-range missiles to hit Russian targets far behind the front.

A U.S. official said “we are committed to strengthening Ukrainian air defenses and we and our allies are in the process of sending more Patriots to Ukraine.” A spokesperson for the Ukrainian embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Ukraine has to date received one Patriot launcher from the U.S., and another was donated jointly by Germany and The Netherlands. In October, Berlin pledged to send another launcher to Kyiv.

More air defenses and munitions top Kyiv’s list of requests from the U.S. and Europe, ALEXANDER KAMYSHIN, who runs the Ministry of Strategic Industries, told NatSec Daily last week following two days of meetings with U.S. government officials and defense industry executives.

Kamyshin said Ukraine is looking to build more munitions at home to try to wean itself off of being reliant solely on Western help, but acknowledged that rebuilding the Ukrainian defense industrial capacity would itself likely require more air defenses to protect plants and factories. “Russians target civilian buildings, schools and hospitals already,” he said, so it would be nothing new.

“The plan is to build enough to make the local defense industry contribute a larger share for our defense forces,” Kamyshin added, though he acknowledged that “it's a long way ahead” to get it done.

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The Inbox

BIDEN: BIBI SHOULD CHANGE: Biden said today that Israel is losing support in the war and that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU should consider changing his far-right government, the most critical comments made by the president since Israel retaliated for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

“This is the most conservative government in Israel’s history,” Biden said during a fundraiser, telling the audience the Israeli government “doesn’t want a two-state solution.”

Netanyahu “has to change, and with this government, this government in Israel is making it very difficult for him to move,” Biden continued.

Biden, in a two-month span, has gone from full-throated support for Israel to critical of the civilian harm its military has inflicted in Gaza to now calling for a shift in the country’s governance.

For months, Biden and his team have quietly suspected that Netanyahu eventually could be ousted as the Hamas attack happened on his watch and clear intelligence signals of the militants’ plotting were reportedly ignored.

There were earlier signs of a break between the U.S. and Israel, as Netanyahu said he would block the American plan to install the Palestinian Authority as the leaders of Gaza after Hamas’ defeat. “I will not allow the entry into Gaza of those who educate for terrorism, support terrorism and finance terrorism,” he said in a video posted to social media. “Gaza will be neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan.”

DECLASSIFIED FOR KYIV: The U.S. has declassified intelligence on the situation in Ukraine to bolster the Biden administration’s case that Congress should further support Kyiv, timing the release with Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington, Alex and LARA SELIGMAN report.

The U.S. assesses that Russia believes it is helped by a military stalemate with Ukraine that saps Western support for Kyiv, making its war easier to win.

“Russia is determined to press forward with its offensive despite its losses,” National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said in a statement. “It is more critical now than ever that we maintain our support for Ukraine so they can continue to hold the line and regain their territory.”

Another declassified U.S. intelligence memo, detailed to NatSec Daily by a person familiar with its contents, reveals Russia has lost 315,000 troops to death or injury out of its pre-war army of 360,000 — or 87 percent — requiring the Kremlin to mobilize the public and recruit furiously, including putting convicts on the front lines.

Russia has also lost 2,200 of the 3,500 tanks it had before 2002, requiring the military to take Soviet-era equipment out of storage, like the T-62 tank.

The declassifications come as Washington and Kyiv look for a new strategy to implement early next year to keep the money flowing and revive Ukraine’s war efforts, U.S. and Ukrainian officials told The New York Times.

That includes increasing face-to-face military advice that the U.S. gives to Ukraine, and the Americans will push for a “conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year,” the Times writes. Ukraine, on the other hand, wants to go on the attack and catch the world’s attention.

Officials from both countries told the Times that they hope to work out the strategy during war games scheduled to be held in Germany next month.

Read: Is Putin winning? FIONA HILL says, ‘He’s about to. And it’s on us’ by our own MAURA REYNOLDS.

WHERE’S NAVALNY? Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s main opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY has been missing for nearly a week from the penal colony where he was imprisoned, our own EVA HARTOG reports.

In a series of tweets, Navalny spokesperson KIRA YARMYSH said she lost contact with him six days ago. She drew a connection to Putin’s announcement last week that he’s seeking re-election: “They just took him away as soon as Putin announced his nomination … What a coincidence.”

Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said Moscow has “neither the intention nor the ability to monitor the fate of prisoners and the process of their stay in the relevant institutions,” per ABC News’ PATRICK REEVELL. “We consider any intervention by anyone, including the United States of America, unacceptable and impossible.”

JOSEP BORRELL, the European Union’s top diplomat, criticized the Kremlin today for Navalny’s disappearance, saying that “Russia’s political leadership is responsible for his safety & health in prison for which they will be held to account.”

MIDDLE EAST UNREST: Israeli airstrikes overnight in southern Gaza, where residents had been told to seek shelter, killed at least 23 people, including seven children and six women, The Associated Press’ NAJIB JOBAIN, SAMY MAGDY and WAFAA SHURAFA report.

Another 33 people, including 16 women and four children, were killed in strikes in central Gaza overnight, the AP reports. Many were killed as missiles hit residential buildings in a refugee camp as part of Israel’s expanded operation to overthrow Hamas in the walled territory.

Israel has begun to fill Hamas’ tunnels with seawater, The Wall Street Journal reports, a technique used to clear and make the tunnels unusable. Meanwhile, WSJ also reports that the United Arab Emirates will only contribute support to rebuild Gaza if there is a serious path toward a two-state solution.

As the U.S. worries about a wider war breaking out in the region, Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a cruise missile at a Norwegian-flagged tanker in the Red Sea, the latest attack by the Iran-backed militants targeting commercial vessels in the area, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports.

The group claimed responsibility for the attack. Houthi spokesperson YAHYA SARE'E claimed this morning that the tanker was "loaded with oil and headed to the Israeli entity.”

Read: Gaza after nine weeks of war by The New York Times’ JOSH HOLDER, NEIL COLLIER and NATALIE RENEAU

HUNGARY FOR AN INVITE: There was a secretive meeting at the Heritage Foundation yesterday that reportedly included allies of Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN, and our own NAHAL TOOSI got a hold of an invite to it.

The event was marketed as “a small, professional, off-the-record discussion on bi-lateral Hungarian-US issues [which] will address key issues in the bilateral relationship with experts and policymakers,” per the invite. It was described as a Track 1.5 dialogue, which typically means current government officials — acting in a non-official capacity — and non-governmental experts would be involved.

The gathering included panels titled “War Against Ukraine & What’s Next?” and “Transatlantic Culture Wars and Contemporary Politics in U.S. and Europe.” It was capped off with a dinner at the Hungarian embassy.

Republican lawmakers were invited to attend the meeting, according to The Guardian. NatSec Daily wasn’t able to confirm who may have gone, but we know that Speaker MIKE JOHNSON wasn’t invited and didn’t attend, his spokesperson RAJ SHAH told us.

The Guardian report described the overall event as lasting two days. The invitation we obtained covered only one day. Heritage Foundation spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment, and neither did Hungarian government officials.

If you attended, send us a line!

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.

2024

‘PURE PROPAGANDA’: The Biden administration inviting Zelenskyy to Washington to underscores that its commitment to Ukraine is “pure propaganda,” independent presidential candidate ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. said today.

White House Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE announced the visit on Sunday, writing that the Ukrainian leader is in town for a meeting with Biden to show the United States’ “unshakeable commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s brutal invasion.”

Kennedy wasn’t having it: “Pure propaganda from KJP,” he said in a tweet, referring to the press sec. “Would love for our elected officials to have an ‘unshakable commitment’ to homefront issues we are all dealing with right now. Instead, they’re rolling out the red carpet again for Zelensky.”

The critique goes further than other presidential candidates have (aside from VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who has expressed skepticism of how Ukraine has spent U.S. dollars).

 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.

 
 
Keystrokes

CYBERATTACK IN KYIV: Hours before Zelenskyy began lobbying Washington for more assistance today, a massive cyberattack hit Ukraine’s main mobile phone and internet providers, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports.

Ukrainian telecom group Kyivstar tweeted this morning that the company was “the target of a powerful hacker attack,” which caused “a technical failure” that led to the company’s telecom and internet access networks collapsing. The company, with about 26 million customers in Ukraine, said that “our enemies are insidious, but we are ready [to] face any difficulties, overcome and continue working for Ukraine.”

No one has claimed responsibility yet, but Ukraine’s intelligence service opened a criminal investigation into the incident, saying they suspect that “Russian special services” are behind it.

 

POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show.

 
 
The Complex

SANCTIONS ON SANCTIONS: The State and Treasury Departments announced new sanctions on more than 250 entities and individuals outside of Russia for helping Moscow with its war efforts in Ukraine.

The State Department is targeting suppliers outside Russia who help Moscow’s military obtain machine tools and equipment, while State is cracking down on those who have helped the Kremlin evade sanctions and bolstered its future energy production and export capacity.

The move aims to “tighten the vise on willing third-country suppliers and networks providing Russia the inputs it desperately needs to ramp up and sustain its military-industrial base,” Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said in a statement.

On the Hill

JOHNSON’S CHRISTMAS WISH: Speaker Johnson doesn’t plan to hold the House in session close to Christmas, despite dissatisfaction with how plans to tie together border security support and aid to Ukraine are shaping up, our own KATHERINE TULLY-MCMANUS reports.

“I think the American people agree with us that national security begins at our own borders,” Johnson told radio host HUGH HEWITT today. “We have to maintain our own sovereignty, so that we can project peace through strength and help our friends. And so I don’t think that’s an outrageous request.”

There is increasing doubt that lawmakers can reach a compromise on the dual Ukraine funding and border policy issues by the end of the year.

“Here we are on the eve, virtually, of Christmas and the end of the year, and the White House, as we talk this morning, has not moved in our direction on that issue,” Johnson said. “And I’ve told them very clearly where we stand.”

Johnson said this morning that he wanted more oversight of the aid to Ukraine and a stronger policy framework and objectives for the financial backing of the fight against Putin. He also wants the White House and Democrats to agree to “transformational” policy changes on the southern border.

After meeting with Zelenskyy today, Johnson reiterated that he won’t support a Ukraine bill unless it’s paired with border security measures.

SPY BILL DELAY: House Republicans are reeling after punting yet another high-priority bill until next year, wracked by bicameral and intra-party divisions over how to rein in controversial government surveillance powers, our own OLIVIA BEAVERS and JORDAIN CARNEY report.

Johnson has officially delayed votes on competing proposals to reauthorize and overhaul a foreign intelligence surveillance authority known as Section 702, as Jordain first reported Monday night.

“I don't think we can make a mistake. I think we’ve got to do it right. And so we're going to allow the time to do that," Johnson told reporters of the impasse over surveillance powers. "Democracy is messy sometimes, but we have to get it right ... sometimes it takes more time than we would like," he added.

 

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Broadsides

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ‘SICK TO MY STOMACH’: A Biden appointee, critical of how strongly the U.S. has stood by Israel during its war with Hamas, used a social media account to implicitly compare the Israeli response to what the Nazis did in the Holocaust — the latest sign of tensions inside the administration over its stance on Israel, our DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in.

ADITI SOMANI, who works on racial equity issues for Treasury and used to work in Oval Office operations at the White House, recently reposted a screenshot from another Instagram user on her private Instagram account — which has more than 700 followers — comparing how many children were killed per day by the Nazis in Auschwitz with how many kids have been killed by Israel. “I will never again question how the world stood by and allowed the Holocaust to happen,” she commented.

Responding to news of the Israel Defense Forces encircling Al-Shifa hospital in a search for tunnels used by Hamas, she said that the world should “drag all the Israeli leaders to The Hague.” In another Instagram story, Somani applauded San Francisco area pro-Palestinian protesters who had shut down the Bay Bridge by saying: “Bay Area holding it down, hell yes!” with an applause emoji.

After the Jabaliya refugee camp was hit by Israel, she said: “US-made bombs. These are our tax dollars.” Responding to a photograph from Gaza, Somani said: “When else in history have we seen images like these? Civilians stripped, blindfolded, tied to one another, detained. My heart is so heavy for the men and boys of Gaza. I am sick to my stomach.”

When asked for comment, a Treasury spokesperson said in a statement: “We mourn for the victims of the atrocities committed on October 7th, the deadliest attack on the Jewish people since the Holocaust, and also mourn for innocent Palestinian civilians who have lost their lives in this conflict. Every life lost is heartbreaking. The administration supports Israel’s right to defend itself against a terrorist threat and will continue to press Israeli counterparts to do everything possible to avoid civilian casualties, even as Hamas shamefully embeds itself among civilians, using innocent Palestinians as human shields.” Somani declined to comment.

Transitions

— Boeing named STEPHANIE POPE to the new position of chief operating officer. She has been president and CEO of Boeing Global Services since April 2022.

HARRY COKER has been confirmed as the next national cyber director, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports. He's the second-ever person in that role, with the Senate approving of his ascension in a 59 to 40 vote.

What to Read

— MATTHEW KAMINSKI, POLITICO: Zelenskyy in Lilliput: someone shrunk Ukraine’s war coalition

— Various experts, The New York Times: What is the path to peace in Gaza?

— SAMANTHA POWER, CNN: U.S. can’t abandon Ukraine’s economy — especially when we’re winning the battle

Tomorrow Today

The Association of the U.S. Army, 7:15 a.m.: Discussion with Gen. JAMES RAINEY, commanding general of the Army Futures Command

The House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, 9 a.m.: Moving the money part 2: getting answers from the Biden administration on the Iranian regime's support of terrorism

The House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Recruiting shortfalls and growing mistrust: perceptions of the U.S. military

The Institute for Policy Studies, 12 p.m.: The humanitarian crisis in Gaza and U.S. obligations under international law

The RAND Corporation, 12 p.m.: China, Taiwan and the United States: the coming war?

The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Artificial intelligence and society: the beautiful promise and the dystopian threat

Washington Post Live, 12 p.m.: Cybersecurity in the cloud and artificial intelligence era

Semafor, 2 p.m.: The state of Made in America

The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Space and Science Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: Government promotion of safety and innovation in the new space economy

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who always asks for more than she needs.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who has the right stuff.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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