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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Erin Banco and Matt Berg | |  The Biden administration speaks more forcefully now about civilian protection than it did after Israel launched its war following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. | Pool photo by Miriam Alster | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Daniel Lippman The Biden administration has been deflecting accusations this week about Israel’s actions in Gaza, saying its ally isn’t committing acts of genocide. But it also acknowledges it conducted no formal assessment of whether Israel is violating international humanitarian law. The lack of any real-time assessments of Israel’s war conduct has fueled intense criticism from inside and outside the government as President JOE BIDEN shows no signs of wanting to change approach. Questions about this stance have arisen in public sessions over the past two days, coming on the heels of South Africa launching a genocide case against Israel at the United Nations’ top court. The U.S. is confident Israel isn’t committing either ethnic cleansing or genocide in Gaza, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily: “If you just look at what Israel is doing, they aren't systematically targeting civilians.” The U.S. came to that conclusion in part after looking at press reports and conversations with Israeli officials about their military operations. On Wednesday, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER also said the U.S. hadn’t seen any acts of genocide perpetrated by Israel in Gaza. Pressed the following day on how the U.S. came to that determination, Miller said he wouldn’t discuss internal deliberations or speak to any formal process that had been launched. Moments later, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY fielded a question at the White House about how the U.S. knows if Israel abides by the laws of war. “I'm not aware of any kind of formal assessment being done by the United States government to analyze the compliance with international law by our partner Israel,” he said. “We have not seen anything that would convince us that we need to take a different approach in terms of trying to help Israel defend itself.” These and other comments have led to more criticisms of the administration’s Israel policy. “The administration issued an assessment of Russian war crimes within a month of the Ukraine invasion. The U.S. has far more visibility into Israeli operations, so the claim that they’ve not been able to make such an assessment about Gaza after three months really strains credulity,” said MATTHEW DUSS, executive vice president at the progressive Center for International Policy. The Biden administration speaks more forcefully now about civilian protection than it did after Israel launched its war following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. It pushed Israel to open a second crossing into Gaza so more humanitarian aid could enter the strip, alleviating some of the suffering of the enclave’s 2.3 million people. And U.S. officials say Israel didn’t pursue an all-out invasion of Gaza after the administration warned against it, further noting that Israel’s recent shift to a more targeted campaign is the result of weeks of intense diplomacy. But Washington has said very little about some of the intentions of top officials in Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government. BEZALEL SMOTRICH, Israel’s finance minister who isn’t in the country’s War Cabinet, has repeatedly called for Palestinians to leave Gaza. “What needs to be done in the Gaza Strip is to encourage emigration,” he told Israeli Army Radio last month. “If there are 100,000 or 200,000 Arabs in Gaza and not 2 million Arabs, the entire discussion on the day after will be totally different.” Israel is also in talks with Congo and other nations about a “voluntary migration” plan for Palestinians in Gaza. “Our problem is [finding] countries that are willing to absorb Gazans, and we are working on it,” Netanyahu told members of his party recently, according to The Times of Israel. The Biden administration’s defense of Israeli actions, while also saying it hasn’t deeply looked into the military operations, is rubbing many the wrong way. Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) today became the latest congressional Democrat to suggest the U.S. impose restrictions on military aid to Israel over its conduct in the war. “The U.S. cannot write a blank check for a right-wing government that's demonstrated an appalling disregard for Palestinian lives,” the Senate Armed Services Committee member wrote on X.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | U.S. STRIKE IN BAGHDAD: The Pentagon conducted a retaliatory strike in Baghdad today, killing a militia leader that it blamed for conducting recent attacks against U.S. personnel in the region, two DOD officials told our own LARA SELIGMAN. A drone fired at least two rockets at a facility used by the Iraqi militia group al-Nujaba'a in the eastern part of the city, according to Iraqi authorities and witnesses, Reuters’ AHMED RASHEED and PHIL STEWART report. The strike hit a vehicle with the intention of killing the militia leader, the U.S. official told Reuters. Three other people were killed in the attack. U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have come under drone and rocket attack at least 100 times since the Israel-Hamas war began in early October, sparking concerns about a wider conflict breaking out in the Middle East. Those fears escalated this week following the killing of top Hamas official SALEH AROURI in Lebanon on Tuesday and two explosions at a commemoration for Iran’s former top general QASSEM SOLEIMANI, which killed more than 100 people, in Iran on Wednesday. The Islamic State today claimed responsibility for the Iran attacks, the deadliest since the country’s 1979 revolution. Today, Iran vowed revenge for the explosions: “The perpetrators of this terrorist attack will be caught by the powerful hand of our security and intelligence organizations and will receive a strong slap, both perpetrators and supporters,” Interior Minister AHMAD VAHIDI told state television, according to the WSJ’s STEPHEN KALIN and ARESU EQBALI. The U.S., which killed Soleimani in an airstrike in 2020, denied involvement in this week’s attack and said it doesn’t believe Israel played any part in it, either. As tensions continue to rise, Israel downplayed fears of wider violence breaking out. Asked what Israel was doing to prepare for attacks from Lebanon-based Hezbollah militants following a threat from the group’s leader, Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm. DANIEL HAGARI said “we are focused on the fight against Hamas,” per Reuters’ MOHAMMAD AZAKIR, NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and ARAFAT BARBAKH. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is reviewing possible actions to take following Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea, including strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, two administration officials told NBC News’ COURTNEY KUBE and CAROL LEE Wednesday night. IRANIAN MISSILE SALE: Moscow is looking to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Tehran in a move that would enhance the Kremlin’s ability to target Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, U.S. officials told WSJ’s MICHAEL GORDON, GORDON LUBOLD and BENOIT FAUCON. “The United States is concerned that Russian negotiations to acquire close-range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing,” one of the U.S. officials told WSJ. “We assess that Russia intends to purchase missile systems from Iran.” The missile could be delivered to Russia as soon as the spring, but U.S. officials don’t believe the deal has been finalized. It would bolster the military’s arsenal, which has recently received ballistic missile launchers and several dozen ballistic missiles from North Korea, the officials told the outlet. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY confirmed in a news conference today that Russia is seeking Iranian missiles but has already used North Korea-provided ballistic missiles on Ukraine. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is also hoping to increase Moscow’s number of troops, issuing a decree today allowing foreign nationals who fight against Ukraine to obtain Russian citizenship, per our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA. EYEING WEST AFRICA: The U.S. is actively looking into basing military drones along the West African coast to stop al Qaeda and Islamic State from spreading in the region, American and African officials told The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL PHILLIPS. Unarmed reconnaissance drones could be deployed to airfields in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Benin, according to preliminary talks being held by the U.S. Each coastal country is being threatened by Islamist militants from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to the south. The drones would allow American forces to monitor military activity in the region and provide tactical advice to troops engaged in combat. It’s an apparent sign that the Biden administration believes Niger is unreliable following its coup in July, and that Mali and Burkina Faso are beyond Western help because of the surge of Islamist militants there. AMERICANS IN GAZA RESCUED: The mother and uncle of a U.S. service member who were in Gaza were rescued from the fighting Wednesday in a secret operation conducted by Israel, Egypt, the U.S. and others, an American official told The Associated Press’ ELLEN KNICKMEYER and MATTHEW LEE. It’s the only known operation to retrieve Americans and their close family members from Gaza during Israel’s devastating military operation. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | | TUCKER, VIVEK HIT HALEY: Ousted Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON and entrepreneur VIVEK RAMASWAMY blasted NIKKI HALEY over her support for Ukraine’s defense and supporting Israel against Hamas. Carlson, posting a video of his comments to X on Wednesday afternoon, said it was “insane” for Haley to connect what’s happening in Ukraine to Israel, stating that it was more important to focus on homefront issues than foreign ones. Ramaswamy then suggested, without evidence, that Biden funders are the same people contributing large-sum donations to the former U.N. ambassador’s campaign because of foreign policy considerations. “There’s a few things they care about: Keeping the foreign war machine humming is high on the list. Keeping the administrative state’s control of the United States is also high on the list,” Ramaswamy said. The entrepreneur is far behind former President DONALD TRUMP, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and Haley in the polls –– he didn’t make the debate stage in Iowa ahead of the caucuses. He’s long targeted Haley and has found a bedfellow in Carlson, who agrees with his outlook that the U.S. needs to disentangle itself from the world. They both suggest that, on foreign policy, Haley mirrors Biden’s stances more than any other Republican candidate. Haley’s campaign referred us to comments she made earlier this week: “The last thing I want is for America to be at war. Supporting Ukraine with weapons is about preventing war. Joe Biden needs to do a better job explaining why a win for Russia is a win for China and Iran,” she wrote on X to promote an appearance on Fox News.
| | | ‘BIG MESSAGE, BIG WARNING’: Russian hackers were inside Ukraine’s largest telecom provider for months before conducting the devastating attack that downed the country's systems last month, Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH reports. Kyivstar had been infiltrated since at least May, Ukraine spy chief ILLIA VITIUK told Reuters, adding that the attack aimed to gather intelligence and serve a psychological blow to the country amid the war. "This attack is a big message, a big warning, not only to Ukraine, but for the whole Western world to understand that no one is actually untouchable," Vitiuk said, noting that Kyivstar is a wealthy, private company that invests heavily in cybersecurity. It was likely the first example of a cyberattack that "completely destroyed the core of a telecoms operator,” the spy chief said. It wiped “almost everything,” including thousands of virtual servers and personal computers.
| | | |   | | | | | ANOTHER FIRST? Biden made history when he tapped retired Gen. LLOYD AUSTIN as the first Black defense secretary. In a new term, Biden may want to break another barrier by putting a woman atop DOD for the first time. Here are some names Lara has been hearing: KATHLEEN HICKS: Hicks has mostly worked behind the scenes in her position as deputy secretary of defense, focusing on the day-to-day management of the building. But her announcement of the new Replicator initiative, an ambitious, two-year plan to develop thousands of drones on the cheap, drove headlines and has caused confusion among industry. CHRISTINE WORMUTH: Army Secretary Wormuth is well-liked inside and outside the Pentagon. She’s focused on Army challenges such as boosting low recruitment numbers, and she has not shied away from making headlines, publicly criticizing Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) monthslong hold on senior military promotions. MICHÈLE FLOURNOY: Flournoy, the former undersecretary of defense for policy in the Obama administration, was widely thought to be a shoo-in for Biden’s Pentagon chief in his first term. But, at the time, Austin’s connection to Biden’s late son, Beau, as well as Austin’s top-notch credentials in the Army, put him over the top.
| | TRUMP’S FOREIGN FUNDS: Trump’s businesses received at least $7.8 million "from foreign states and their leaders" during his time in office, according to a new report by House Democrats. Democrats used records obtained from Trump’s longtime accounting firm, worked out as part of a lengthy court battle, plus publicly available information to track payments from at least 20 countries, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. A bulk of those payments came from the Chinese government and state-owned business. “By elevating his personal financial interests and the policy priorities of corrupt foreign powers over the American public interest, former President Trump violated both the clear commands of the Constitution and the careful precedent set and observed by every previous commander-in-chief,” Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.), the top Democrat on the committee, said in the report.
| | | | Tune in on Wednesday, Jan. 10, as POLITICO explores Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. Hear from our panel on the potential outcomes to the race and the profound implications for U.S.-China relations depending on who wins. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ‘NOT WILLING TO DO TOO DAMN MUCH’: Efforts by senators to cut a deal with the Biden administration to address border security and send assistance to Ukraine probably won’t succeed, several House Republicans told CNN’s MANU RAJU, MELANIE ZANONA and LAUREN FOX. Some House Republicans said they’d only accept a deal that’s similar to the hardline immigration bill, known as HR 2, that the chamber passed last year. But Senate Democrats and the White House have said that such a measure is a non-starter. House Republicans also don’t want to help out Biden ahead of the upcoming election. “Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating,” Rep. TROY NEHLS (R-Texas) told CNN. “I will not help the Democrats try to improve this man’s dismal approval ratings. I’m not going to do it. Why would I? CHUCK SCHUMER has had HR 2 on his desk since July. And he did nothing with it.” ICYMI — Second Biden official resigns over Israel-Hamas war concerns by Matt
| | — SUSAN SAXTON has joined the Middle East Institute as chief operating officer. Saxton served as the founding president of the American University of Bahrain. — CHARLES DUNST is Sen. MICHAEL BENNET’s (D-Colo.) new foreign policy and national security adviser. He was last a senior associate and deputy director for research and analytics at the Asia Group. — EMILY BLANCHARD has left the State Department where she was chief economist. She has returned to Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, where she is an associate professor in the economics group. — KARA GERHARDT ROSS is joining SAIC as chief communications officer. She most recently was president of international, executive and policy communications at UPS, and is a BILL CLINTON White House alum.
| | — SIMON SHUSTER, Time: Where Zelenskyy comes from — The Economist: Binyamin Netanyahu is botching the war. Time to sack him — DANIEL BYMAN, Foreign Affairs: Can the Palestinian Authority govern Gaza?
| | — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 1 p.m.: The state of space operations and initiatives to assure continued access to and use of the space domain in the face of increasing kinetic, non-kinetic and cyber threats Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who says we’re terrible at our jobs without actually conducting a real assessment. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who everyone can see is crushing it.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
