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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Palestinians watch the destruction after the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip outside a morgue in Rafah on Dec. 19, 2023. | Hatem Ali/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Lara Seligman Bilateral cease-fire. Sustainable cease-fire. Mutual and permanent end to the violence. Immediate de-escalation and cease-fire. Mutually agreed-upon bilateral humanitarian pause. Your NatSec Daily host is dizzy just listing all the terms used by politicians around the world, who believe Israel’s intensive military operation in the Gaza Strip needs to slow down. Those calls are increasing, so variations of terms like these will probably continue to emerge as long as politicians aren’t on the same page. But the myriad of cease-fire phrases — some without clear definitions, others seemingly plucked from thin air — run the risk of confusing the general public even more. “These are not terms of art with fixed, well-defined meanings, so the devil is really in the details,” BRIAN FINUCANE, a former State Department lawyer who worked on international and national security law, told NatSec Daily. These calls are complicated by the fact that there’s no internationally agreed-upon definition of a cease-fire. But leaving terms open to interpretation makes it possible for politicians to accomplish two tasks: advocate for some semblance of peace in the Middle East without angering the United States’ closest ally in the region. Some of the politicians’ calls were fleshed out, while others left us wanting more clarity. Let’s start going through them, for your sanity and for ours. Bilateral cease-fire: Dozens of lawmakers, including Rep. KATIE PORTER (D-Calif.), have used that term. In Porter’s announcement last night, she called for the release of all hostages seized in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the end of Hamas control of Gaza and security for Israel. In a joint statement earlier this month, other lawmakers attempted to clarify the “bilateral” part: “It is essential that this ceasefire be bilateral. Both sides must come to the table in agreement; only then can we lay the groundwork to create a true two-state solution.” On a similar note, Rep. DIANA DeGETTE (D-Colo.) said the U.S. should pressure Israel and Hamas to negotiate a “mutual and permanent end to the violence,” which would include an end to all fighting, a release of hostages and deliveries of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) also suggested a mutually agreed-upon bilateral humanitarian pause, which calls for a pause in fighting and an influx of humanitarian aid to Gaza but not an end to hostilities for the long term. Sustainable cease-fire: British Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON and German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK called for a “sustainable cease-fire” on Saturday, advocating for a long-term end to fighting between Israel and Hamas. “Our goal cannot simply be an end to fighting today. It must be peace lasting for days, years, generations,” the ministers wrote. In their article, however, they blame Hamas for the violence but call on Israel to “discriminate sufficiently between terrorists and civilians.” Immediate de-escalation and cease-fire: In the House, 17 progressive lawmakers have signed onto a resolution urging President JOE BIDEN to immediately “call for and to facilitate de-escalation and a cease-fire” between Israel and Hamas. They don't specify whether fighting should stop indefinitely, but they call for humanitarian aid to be sent into Gaza. At a minimum, the emphasis on a “bilateral” or “mutual” cease-fire means that Hamas has to stop firing rockets if Israel stops airstrikes, said Finucane, who now advises the nonprofit International Crisis Group. The other part of these terms is about timing — if the fighting should stop now or later in the future. “If you call for a cease-fire only once Israel's military objectives have been achieved in Gaza, even if you assume that is possible, that is not really calling for a cease-fire,” Finucane said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | ISRAEL’S SECOND TRUCE? As Israel’s military continued pounding Gaza with airstrikes today, Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG said the country is ready for another temporary pause in fighting if the right deal is reached. "Israel is ready for another humanitarian pause and additional humanitarian aid in order to enable the release of hostages," Herzog’s office said in a readout, per Reuters’ DAN WILLIAMS. Herzog’s role as president is largely ceremonial, though, and other top Israeli officials haven’t signaled that they’re ready to pause the ground operation again, like they did last month in conjunction with the initial hostage deal. Meanwhile, the situation in the Gaza Strip becomes increasingly dire for residents every day due to a lack of food and housing. Nearly 20,000 Palestinians have been killed in the fighting, according to Gaza health authorities. $2M MISSILE VS $2K DRONE: As American warships rack up kills against Houthi drones and missiles in the Red Sea, Pentagon officials are increasingly alarmed at the growing cost of keeping U.S. vessels safe, our own LARA SELIGMAN and yours truly report. U.S. Navy destroyers have shot down more than 38 Houthi drones and multiple missiles in the Red Sea over the past two months, as the Iran-backed militants have stepped up attacks on commercial vessels moving energy and oil through the world’s most vital shipping lanes. On Saturday alone, the destroyer USS Carney intercepted 14 one-way attack drones. Houthi leaders have said the attacks are a show of support for Palestinians, and that they won’t stop until Israel halts its operations in Gaza. Three other DOD officials said the cost of using expensive naval missiles — which can run up to $2.1 million a shot — to destroy unsophisticated Houthi drones, estimated at a few thousand dollars each, is a growing concern. “The cost offset is not on our side,” a DOD official told Lara. ALL ABOARD: Nineteen nations have signed on to a new international maritime task force focused on countering Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea — but most of them don’t want to put their names to the move, a senior administration official told Lara. Only nine nations have announced that they will participate with the U.S. in the task force, which was announced by Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on Monday following a fresh wave of attacks. A number of European partners are on the list, including the United Kingdom and Norway, but only one Gulf nation: Bahrain. Other Arab nations have signed on, according to the administration official, but they did not want to go public. The situation is complicated because of the perception that the task force is designed to protect Israeli-linked commercial vessels, explained one DOD official. Another sticking point for the Saudis, in particular, is the potential to derail ongoing talks with the Houthis for a permanent cease-fire in Yemen. The administration official did not specify which anonymous countries are participating. GOOD NEWS FOR CONGO: The Biden administration is increasingly confident that a pact it brokered to de-escalate fighting in eastern Congo will hold through the country’s elections — a key step toward preventing a larger conflict between Congo and Rwanda, our own ERIN BANCO reports. Congolese forces and Rwanda-backed rebels have clashed in eastern Congo with increasing frequency since May, worrying U.S. officials that the violence would lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries. Over the last month, top officials from the National Security Council and the intelligence agencies helped broker a series of agreements that led to a pause in fighting. U.S. intelligence shows forces aligned with both sides are broadly adhering to those commitments, officials told Erin. Rwanda-backed rebels have pulled back their offensive equipment from some of their previously held positions and Congolese forces have grounded their drones. As a result, the administration expects the armistice to stay in place until after the Congolese elections on Friday and through until at least Dec. 28, the date agreed upon by both countries, two U.S. officials told Erin. ‘NIGHTMARE’ IN SUDAN: More than 300,000 people have fled Wad Madani in the heart of Sudan after the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, which has been engaged in a civil war with the country’s military, took the city this week. “We are very concerned about the potential humanitarian consequences as more people are displaced,” SOFIE KARLSSON, spokesperson for the U.N.'s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told The Washington Post’s KATHARINE HOURELD. The RSF entering the city is a major win for the group, which has racked up victories such as capturing four out of five regional capitals in the western region of Darfur, per the Post. BIBI’S UNLIKELY WINGMAN: Senate Democrats are being lobbied to support Israel’s military operation by an unexpected figure: YAIR LAPID, Israel’s opposition leader and former prime minister, who has spent his career trying to vanquish BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. In a series of phone calls with left-of-center American lawmakers since the Hamas attack, Lapid has conveyed resolute support for the Netanyahu-led government’s strategy in Gaza, our own ALEXANDER BURNS reports. There has been no second-guessing of the war cabinet or quiet sniping at Israel’s unpopular right-wing administration. Some who know Lapid, who served as Israel’s interim leader for the final six months of 2022, have been struck by his formality on the phone — and the absence of the lively and confiding mien that American Democrats can find disarming. “Despite his deep, historic misgivings about Netanyahu, he wanted to make clear that there was real unanimity of purpose when it comes to the campaign in Gaza,” Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), a top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Alex. “He was delivering a message about the imperative of defeating Hamas.” IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | TUCKER AIMS AT RON: Former Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON blasted Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS for quickly shifting his views on support for Ukraine following criticism of his stance earlier this year. “His donor KEN GRIFFIN told him to change his view on Ukraine from, ‘It’s a regional conflict we shouldn't get involved in,’ [to], ‘It’s a super important thing we should send more money to,’” Carlson told The Post Millennial Monday night. “One donor got him to change his view, and all these so-called conservatives are supporting that.” In March, DeSantis responded to a Fox News questionnaire, saying that defending Ukraine against Russia’s invasion is not a vital U.S. interest. That drew swift rebukes from conservatives nationwide, causing him to clarify that he supports Ukraine’s war efforts. Read: One year of Trump’s praise for authoritarians by our own KELLY GARRITY and MERIDITH McGRAW
| | US TECH FOR IRAN DRONES: The Justice Department is charging two Iranian nationals, who they allege worked with a Chinese company, with crimes related to the procurement of U.S.-manufactured dual-use microelectronics for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. HOSSEIN HATEFI ARDAKANI and GARY LAM obtained the equipment for the group’s one-way attack drone program, the DOJ said in a statement today. The Treasury Department also sanctioned Ardakani and Lam, as well as two other people and 10 entities involved in the procurement network for Iran’s production of drones. The indictment aims to keep U.S. “military-grade equipment out of the hands of the Iranian regime,” Assistant Attorney General MATTHEW OLSEN said in a statement.
| | | IRAN ACCUSED OF BREAKING RULES: Western countries part of the Iran nuclear deal accused Tehran of developing and testing ballistic missiles, transferring hundreds of drones to Russia and enriching uranium above the agreed upon levels, The Associated Press’ EDITH LEDERER reported Monday night. All of those actions, including enriching uranium above 60 percent — unprecedented for a country without a nuclear program — violate a U.N. resolution endorsing the deal. Iran and Russia dismissed the accusations, which were made by Britain, France and Germany. The Iran deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is aimed at making sure Tehran doesn’t develop atomic weapons. Under the deal, Iran agreed to limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
| | | |   | | | | | SCHUMER STANDING FIRM: Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER today reiterated his support for a deal that would pair border policy changes with Ukraine aid, and stressed that Senate negotiators will need more time to reach an agreement on a package, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. "It's going to take more time,” Schumer said on the floor. “But no matter how long it takes, we must succeed.” Meanwhile, Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) may drop the remainder of his holds on military nominations, which would mark an official end to his procedural protest of a Pentagon abortion policy, our own URSULA PERANO reports. Schumer has said he plans to bring up the four-star military nominations this week. Those promotions were the last ones Tuberville said he would hold up, after he dropped hundreds of his military holds earlier this month. In order to pass them before the end of the week, Schumer would need agreement from all 100 senators. “I don't know. It just depends on how they do it,” Tuberville told Ursula. “You know, sooner or later, we're gonna let them go through, you know? I've given 99 percent of them. But you'd think they would say OK, what are we gonna do to get these last 11? I've heard from nobody.” SUDAN ENVOY: Virginia’s Democratic Sens. MARK WARNER and TIM KAINE sent a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN today, urging the administration to expedite the appointment of a special envoy for Sudan. Some 4.8 million people have been internally displaced since the war in Sudan began in April 2023, causing one of the largest internal displacement crises in the world, the lawmakers wrote. A special envoy, they argue, would play a critical role in Washington’s efforts to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance and push for peace negotiations.
| | | | WAGNERS’ ALLEGED WAR CRIMES: A man claiming to be a former Russian colonel and ex-member of the Wagner paramilitary group who fought in Ukraine said he witnessed war crimes and child abductions, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports. IGOR SALIKOV, who says he served with the group for 25 years, arrived in the Netherlands on Monday to testify before the International Criminal Court about alleged war crimes committed by Moscow during its war against Ukraine, Dutch public media reported. “I witnessed atrocities against civilians,” the 60-year-old said, adding that he saw prisoners of war being abused and executed and children being abducted. Salikov said those carrying out these alleged war crimes were doing so on the orders of the Russian defense ministry and the office of President VLADIMIR PUTIN. Read: Putin could attack Baltics and Moldova next, says Belgian army chief by our own LAURA HÜLSEMANN
| | — Rebellion Defense announced its executive chair, BEN FITZGERALD, will become its new chief executive officer, beginning Jan. 1. He will succeed interim CEO BARRY SOWERWINE, who will join Rebellion’s board of directors. FitzGerald served as DOD’s executive director for strategy, data and design from 2018 to 2019.
| | — JENNIFER RUBIN, The Washington Post: A border deal can save Ukraine, aid Israel and Taiwan, and help Biden — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee: Mislabeled as a threat: how the terrorist watchlist and government screening practices impact Americans — MARC CHAMPION, Bloomberg: The U.K. and Armenia know the dangers of Israel’s Gaza war
| | — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: Countering Beijing's economic coercion in the Indo-Pacific — The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: The future of arms control and deterrence — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Aid to Ukraine and the future of the war Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who will fight us until the end of time. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who constantly calls for a cessation of hostilities between us.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
