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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Brett McGurk, the top White House Middle East official, said the U.S. sees the conflict in Gaza lasting for a long time, potentially until the end of the year, according to experts who attended the briefing. | Susan Walsh/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Erin Banco FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — While Israel says it’s going to change to a less-intense, more-targeted campaign in Gaza, the White House doesn’t know when that’s going to happen. BRETT McGURK, the National Security Council’s top Middle East official, held a “Chatham House rules” Zoom briefing with experts yesterday, during which he discussed the Biden administration’s thinking on the roiling conflict. Three people familiar with the 45-minute conversation, granted anonymity to speak freely about the private chat, said McGurk was fairly candid about what the U.S. knows and doesn’t. “We don’t know when the downshift is going to happen,” McGurk said, per one of the people, though the senior aide noted they’ve seen encouraging signs Israel is moving toward lower-intensity operations, namely the announced withdrawal of five brigades from Gaza. McGurk, citing Israeli officials, added that the conflict could last for a long time, potentially until the end of the year. Israeli officials have said publicly that they expect the war to continue for months. He also noted how the administration seeks more humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza. And there was a discussion about the return of Palestinians to their homes in Gaza’s north, an area devastated by Israel’s monthslong bombing campaign, partly because military operations are dwindling in the area because Hamas has been “dismantled” there, said McGurk, echoing language Israeli officials have used. McGurk, citing Israeli officials, added that the conflict could last for a long time, potentially until the end of the year. Israeli officials have said publicly that they expect the war to continue for months. He also noted how the administration seeks more humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza. And there was a discussion about the return of Palestinians to their homes in Gaza’s north, an area devastated by Israel’s monthslong bombing campaign, partly because military operations are dwindling in the area because Hamas has been “dismantled” there, said McGurk, echoing language Israeli officials have used. He also said the U.S. was discussing this possibility with the United Nations but was aware many homes had been destroyed or are unlivable. One idea is training about 6,000 members for a Palestinian security force, but that would require about eight to 10 months. The briefing was light on specifics, and McGurk covered much of the ground administration officials say in public. But the few moments of candor suggest the U.S. struggles to fully influence its ally and keep tabs on Israel’s latest military thinking. “They just don’t know,” the second person said of the conversation’s main takeaway. The National Security Council didn’t respond to a request for comment. Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT yesterday laid out Israel’s plans for the next phase of the war, saying there would be a scaled-down “new combat approach” in northern Gaza. When the fighting ends, the War Cabinet member suggests Israeli forces will maintain security in the strip while a Palestinian entity administers the enclave. Gallant, however, was also light on specifics.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | VIVEK WANTS U.S. OUT OF NATO: Republican candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY has told experts and supporters that he would withdraw the U.S. from NATO as president, Alex reports. The remarks are the furthest he, or any other presidential candidate, has gone on ending America’s decadeslong role in the alliance. He told POLITICO in October that the idea of the U.S. leaving NATO was “reasonable” but fell short of supporting taking NATO’s most important member out of the bloc. Ramaswamy’s campaign spokesperson, TRICIA McLAUGHLIN, didn’t deny the candidate’s private stance. “Vivek has serious concerns that most NATO allies fail to meet their military investment commitments and will reevaluate our own support as necessary. He also believes that post Cold War NATO expansionism has unnecessarily increased the risk of major conflict with Russia,” she said, noting Ramaswamy is also “skeptical of continuing U.S. funding of the U.N., WHO, and any other multilateral institutions that impede on U.S. sovereignty.” Ramaswamy is not the only NATO-wary Republican candidate. As president, DONALD TRUMP discussed taking the U.S. out of the alliance and there are indications he may yet do so if he reenters the Oval Office. “We have to finish the process we began under my administration of fundamentally reevaluating NATO's purpose and NATO's mission,” reads his campaign website. Lawmakers have taken action to prevent such a withdrawal. They approved a bill that stops any president from unilaterally ending America’s participation in the alliance, which considers an attack on one member as an attack on all. WIDER WAR PLANS: Biden administration officials are drawing up plans for the U.S. to respond to what they’re increasingly concerned could expand from a war in Gaza to a wider, protracted regional conflict, our own ERIN BANCO, LARA SELIGMAN and Alex reported Thursday night. The military is drafting plans to hit back at Iran-backed Houthi militants who have been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea, according to three U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the discussions. That includes striking Houthi targets in Yemen, according to one of the officials, an option the military has previously presented. Intelligence officials, meanwhile, are coming up with ways to anticipate and fend off possible attacks on the U.S. by Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria, according to one of the officials. They are also working to determine where the Houthi militants may strike next. The U.S. has for months behind the scenes urged Tehran to persuade the proxies to scale back their attacks. But officials say they have not seen any sign that the groups have begun to decrease their targeting and worry the violence will only surge in the coming days. That concern was underscored last night, when U.S. officials announced that an armed unmanned surface vessel launched by Houthis came within a “couple of miles” of Navy and commercial vessels — hours after the U.S. and allies warned the group against further attacks, as The Associated Press’ TARA COPP reported. UKRAINE’S NEW STRATEGY: Ukraine has escalated its strategy of attacking Moscow-annexed territory and Russian sovereign lands with drones, a sign that it will take the fight more directly to the Russian homeland this year. “Air raid sirens wailed in Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea, and traffic was suspended for a second straight day on a bridge connecting the peninsula, which Moscow seized illegally a decade ago, with Russia’s southern Krasnodar region,” The Associated Press reports. “The Russian Defense Ministry said its defenses intercepted 36 drones over Crimea and one over Krasnodar, part of an emerging pattern of intensified Ukrainian aerial attacks in recent days.” Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY promised a more aggressive strategy, even as support for Kyiv’s defense has waned in the West, noting his country had developed a weapon that can strike targets 400 miles away and is constructing 1 million drones. Russia, meanwhile, has launched more attacks on the Ukrainian capital and other important cities in recent days, destroying more infrastructure and attempting to break Ukraine’s will to resist the invasion. The longer-range attacks signal how fighting on the ground is at a stalemate, though Ukraine has had immense success pushing Russian naval forces back in the Black Sea. CONGO CEASE-FIRE OVER: An American-brokered cease-fire in Congo appears to have broken down, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. The official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely about ongoing diplomatic talks, said the pause in fighting lasted until Dec. 28. The U.S. helped broker the cease-fire in Congo after a visit by Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES in November. But after the country’s presidential election on Dec. 20, fighting broke out between Rwanda-backed rebels and Congolese military forces in the eastern part of the country. The fighting came amid heightened tensions in the capital of Kinshasa as citizens who oppose President FELIX TSHISEKEDI flooded the streets in major cities across the country, claiming logistical problems had undermined the integrity of the election. Rwandan-backed rebels attacked forces aligned with the Congolese military in the province of North Kivu in the town of Masisi on Dec. 22. The two sides continued to clash afterward with the Congolese military bombing rebel positions near the city of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province in eastern Congo. Washington pushed both countries to adhere to the deal through Congo’s presidential elections and had advocated for the countries to extend the cease-fire through the New Year. American officials had hoped to reduce tensions between the two sides and get the cease-fire talks back on track, but the violence is ongoing and it is unclear if the parties will come back to the negotiating table any time soon, the official said.
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we’re featuring DAVE BROWN, POLITICO's defense editor. After he’s done slogging through our raw copy, Dave likes to keep it simple with a tall glass of water. "It's all I'm allowed to drink," he said, his eyes drifting toward his unused liquor cabinet. "Some days when I'm feeling crazy, I add some grape or orange flavor ... but only in moderation." For the record, he normally loves sipping on an Old Fashioned, but has been on an extended break since August after his vacation to London was rudely interrupted by a heart attack. But Dave writes in to say that everything is going well after successful defibrillator implant surgery on Thursday (he now has Iron Man’s heart, basically). Dave’s on his way to a full recovery and can't begin to thank all his friends and colleagues for their well wishes. Stay hydrated, Dave!
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1. | | ‘COMPLETELY WRONG’: Former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY used her Iowa town hall last night to accuse her old boss, Trump, of often siding with autocrats over allies. “You look at how he deals with dictators, I think it’s completely wrong,” she told CNN’s ERIN BURNETT of the former president and current Republican frontrunner. “He praised China’s President XI [JINPING] after China gave us Covid. You don’t do that. He congratulated them on the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party. We don’t do that.” She also slammed Trump for picking a fight with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU shortly after Hamas attacked the country — killing 1,200 people and abducting around 240 others — and calling Hezbollah “very smart.” “It’s just not what we need to do,” Haley repeated. She also suggested that China, Russia and Iran — which have grown closer in recent years — are in “an unholy alliance … bound together by their hatred of freedom, democracy and above all things the United States of America.” | | TESTING, TESTING: Marines are testing new radars and electronic networks that allow them to track enemy ships and planes in contested waters, Defense News’ MEGAN ECKSTEIN reports. Col. MATTHEW DANNER, who leads the Japan-based 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, told Eckstein that Marines are still working on how many people are needed to man these systems at temporary, remote posts. “What they typically consist of is a ground sensor capability … that will enable us to provide remote sensing capability offshore, and then the radars to provide surface radar out to 40 or 50 nautical miles,” he said. “And then we link those collections into other sensor EABs [expeditionary advanced bases], we feed it up into joint architecture, and then that contributes to the common operational picture that enables the joint task force or the geographic combatant commander to understand the battle space and employ certain capabilities.” In English, that means these systems will link with one another, giving those remote posts and others more real-time information about who and what is out in contested spaces. One challenge is fitting certain radar systems to their environments, Danner continued: “There are certain radars that blend into the operating environment better in the Baltic Sea, that are going to stick out [in the Pacific] and become very, very obvious.”
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| | | FORD LEAVES MEDITERRANEAN: The Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group transited the Strait of Gibraltar and left the Mediterranean Sea today after conducting operations in the region to support Israel. The carrier strike group was sent to the Eastern Mediterranean after Hamas’ attack in October to be within striking distance of Israel. The Ford was in the area while its accompanying warships sailed into the Red Sea, where they intercepted ballistic missiles and attack drones fired from Houthi rebels in Yemen. It “proved to be the right ship at the right time to answer our nation's calling. The Gerald R. Ford is everything our nation hoped it would be, and more,” Capt. RICK BURGESS, commanding officer of Ford, said in a statement. Completing the transit through the Strait of Gibraltar, which connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Atlantic Ocean, is a major milestone and one of the last scheduled operations of the ship’s eight-month deployment, the Navy said. | | | TALK TO ME: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is open to direct negotiations with the White House on changes to border security and immigration, he told Republican freshmen on a Thursday conference call, which could move the congressional passage of more support for Ukraine and Israel closer to reality. “It’s uncertain if Johnson would want to negotiate border policy changes as part of a government-funding bill or a national-security supplemental package, as Senate negotiators have been trying for weeks,” Punchbowl News’ ANDREW DESIDERIO, JOHN BRESNAHAN and JAKE SHERMAN reported this morning. Johnson doesn’t believe a Senate border-for-Ukraine-and-Israel deal would pass the Republican-led House. The deal isn’t anywhere near being done, though Johnson’s involvement might make one closer than before. “We need Congress to approve our supplemental funding request for Ukraine without delay,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY implored at during a news briefing yesterday. Shortly after Johnson’s interest in talking with the White House became public, Biden's budget director SHALANDA YOUNG threw cold water on the idea. “It’s a long trip down to the White House to do something that could be done right next door” in the Senate, she said at a breakfast with reporters this morning. Johnson is “a fellow Louisianan, so I’m going to use a charitable thought here, but that is not serious.”
| | | | Tune in on Wednesday, Jan. 10, as POLITICO explores Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. Hear from our panel on the potential outcomes to the race and the profound implications for U.S.-China relations depending on who wins. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | A SPOX ON YOUR WHITE HOUSE: Why does Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE seemingly share the top job — and definitely the podium — with NSC spox Kirby? Axios’ ALEX THOMPSON answers this question in a scoopy piece this morning highlighting tensions between the two, who have expressed their frustrations with the arrangement — which Biden himself called for, according to the report. Kirby, the administration’s public voice on foreign policy, has expressed interest in taking over the job of press secretary, but there are no signs that Jean-Pierre will depart anytime soon. But his profile has risen in recent weeks due to the Israel-Hamas war, appearing alongside Jean-Pierre in nearly every briefing since it began. The two “have split the podium in the White House press room more frequently since the Israel-Hamas war began in October — aggravating tensions that began in the spring of 2022, when JEN PSAKI departed as press secretary, current and former Biden officials said,” Axios writes. A White House official who works closely with Kirby and Jean-Pierre had a different view of the situation: "I don't recognize this description of their relationship at all. The truth is the opposite — they talk all the time and have a collegial and collaborative rapport," the official told Axios. ICYMI — U.K. slams Putin over use of North Korean missiles in Ukraine by our own BETHANY DAWSON
| | — GABRIELA CASTILLO MADRID is now senior public policy manager for global government affairs at X, formerly Twitter. She most recently was director of the Office of Industry Engagement at the International Trade Administration of the Commerce Department.
| | — NATHALIE TOCCI, POLITICO: Europe’s stance on Gaza has undermined its credibility — YOEL GUZANSKY, Foreign Affairs: Qatar’s balancing act in Gaza — KATHRIN HILLE, Financial Times: Becoming Taiwan: In China’s shadow, an island asserts its identity
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | — The #NatSecGirlSquad Conference, the world’s largest national security and defense conference for professional women and their allies, kicks off on Monday. Tickets can be bought here. — Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 12:30 p.m.: Meeting of the Technology Advisory Committee to discuss digital assets and blockchain technology, cybersecurity and emerging and evolving technologies Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt and Emma Anderson, who never know when anything is going to happen. We also thank our producer, Andy Goodwin, who knows all things, sees all things, is all things. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
