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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward | |  Houthi fighters march during a rally of support for the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and against the U.S. strikes on Yemen outside Sanaa on Jan. 22, 2024. | AP | With help from Joe Gould, Daniel Lippman, Joseph Gedeon and Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration acknowledged attacks on the Houthis won’t by themselves stop the Iran-backed militants from threatening commercial ships in the Middle East. Which leads to the obvious question: what will stop the Houthis? This is what President JOE BIDEN and his team are working through right now, per NatSec Daily’s conversations with U.S. officials. Their current thinking: there’s no single thing that will pressure the militants to cease launching missiles. It will require a combination of factors over weeks — maybe months — including at least a slowdown in fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. A senior administration official laid it out as follows. The U.S. attacks on Houthi targets will degrade the militants’ abilities to keep shooting at ships, as will the interdiction of vessels carrying weapons to Yemen. Last week’s redesignation of the Houthis as terrorists will increase the sanctions pressure on them, starving fighters of the resources that bankroll operations. Eventually, the official continued, regional countries and other nations with an interest in open sea lanes — China, for example — will demand an end to the shipping crisis that has inflated prices and imperiled lives. Meanwhile, Israel’s plan for more targeted operations in Gaza could mean fewer civilian casualties, which would weaken the Houthis’ case for rising to the Palestinians’ defense. An end to the war would remove that rallying cry. But even if all those various elements lined up, it’s still not clear the strategic picture the Houthis care about will shift radically enough for a course correction. “The Houthis see these strikes as serving their most central interest, which is gaining domestic and international legitimacy,” texted LINDSAY COHN, a national security affairs professor at the U.S. Naval War College. “In order to stop them, the U.S. would either have to impose a cost the Houthis cared about more than this aim (essentially impossible), or they would have to remove the logic of the strikes, by restraining Israel and championing the Palestinians, themselves.” The Middle East Institute’s CHARLES LISTER put it more succinctly: “There’s no denying the lack of strategic clarity right now.” No one inside the administration argues any of this will get done quickly, which means the Houthi crisis is likely to last longer than anyone would like. “They have no magic fix,” said AARON DAVID MILLER, a former Middle East peace negotiator who was briefed last week on the anti-Houthi plan by the White House. “Often the choice is not between a great and a bad option. It’s between a bad option and one that's worse.” The longer this all goes on, the higher the chance of the Houthis killing Americans on a commercial ship or Iran-backed proxies killing American forces in Iraq and Syria. At that point, Miller argued, the U.S. will “have no choice” but to strike Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tehran’s assets in the Gulf or targets inside Iran proper.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | GAZA PEACE PLAN: The White House’s top Middle East official has flown to the region to negotiate a Gaza peace plan, the Wall Street Journal reports, though there are no signs of an imminent agreement. BRETT McGURK met with Egyptian officials Monday and then his Qatari counterparts. Arab officials tell SUMMER SAID, MARGHERITA STANCATI and LAURENCE NORMAN that “countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar are working on a new proposal aimed at reaching a comprehensive deal to end hostilities and at creating a pathway to a two-state solution.” Saudi and Egyptian officials further told WSJ that the U.S. supports the plan, which would end fighting and pave the path for a Palestinian state in exchange for a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has already rejected greenlighting a Palestinian state while, on Monday, Saudi’s top diplomat said Monday there would be no normalization without movement toward a Palestinian state. At the World Economic Forum last week, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said seeking normalization agreements was the only way toward brokering Israeli-Palestinian peace. “We judged that direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, which had fallen short so many times before, was unlikely to succeed,” he said. “We determined the best approach was to work towards a package deal that involved normalization between Israel and key Arab states, together with meaningful progress and a political horizon for the Palestinian people.” ‘DIRECTLY INVOLVED’: The Navy’s top Middle East official said Iran was “directly involved” in the Houthis’ attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. “What I’ll say is Iran is clearly funding, they’re resourcing, they are supplying and they’re providing training,” said Vice Adm. BRAD COOPER, who leads the Navy’s 5th Fleet. “They’re obviously very directly involved. There’s no secret there.” What he didn’t tell the Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL, though, was that Tehran ordered the strikes. Those comments follow a report by our own ERIN BANCO and LARA SELIGMAN on Sunday revealing that the Houthis in Yemen sought more weapons from Iran. “U.S. officials have for at least a month analyzed information on the Houthis’ planning for the stepped-up attacks, including their attempts to procure additional weapons needed to launch missiles at freighters,” they wrote, citing a readout of the intelligence and a U.S. official familiar with the matter. Biden and his team have repeatedly said U.S. strikes on Houthi targets were unlikely to stop the militant group from launching the attacks that have derailed global shipping. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | GO AFTER THEM: NIKKI HALEY argues the Biden administration should target Iranians aiming to kill American service members in the Middle East. She agreed with radio host HUGH HEWITT during a Monday interview that the Trump administration’s assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader QASSEM SOLEIMANI was a good idea. Biden’s team should consider that operation a guide, Haley said. “You have to go after the people making these decisions to kill Americans,” said the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Biden has the space to do that because Iran knows it couldn’t defeat America in a war, Haley continued. “It doesn’t make sense why Biden’s not punching them once, because they know that once we wake up and once we punch, then they retreat. And that has yet to happen in all these years, even with all the military who’ve been wounded and died from them.” While DONALD TRUMP gave the order to kill Soleimani, he has been less eager to use military force in the Middle East that could embroil the U.S. deeper into regional wars. Haley, the only remaining challenger as Trump sprints toward the Republican nomination, has spoken more fervently for the use of American power abroad.
| | MONOBANK HIT: Ukraine’s largest mobile-only bank was hit with a cyberattack, the company reported Sunday. OLEH HOROKHOVSKYY, cofounder and CEO of Monobank, said the platform saw its servers flooded with 580 million requests in just one attack. That followed an attack the day earlier featuring 50 million requests. "I think today Monobank is one of the most attacked IT targets in the country,” Horokhovskyy said per ABBEY FENBERT’s report in The Kyiv Independent. It’s unclear who was behind this attack – known formally as a distributed denial of service attack – but Russian hackers are highly suspected, especially since they’ve launched thousands of cyberstrikes since the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.
| | RIP: Biden offered his condolences for the two Navy SEALs lost at sea during a mission to intercept Iranian weapons. “Our hearts go out to the family members, loved ones, friends, and shipmates who are grieving for these two brave Americans. Our entire country stands with you. We will never fail to honor their service, their legacy, and their sacrifice,” the president said in a statement. U.S. Central Command announced Sunday that the SEALs’ status “has been changed to deceased.” The U.S. military is now conducting “recovery operations,” per CENTCOM, ending the aerial and naval search over a 21,000 square mile area. Assets from the U.S., Japan and Spain were used in the search operation. We still don’t know the names of the SEALs and the U.S. military for now won’t release the information out of respect for their families’ privacy.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | REPO, BABY: There’s a behind-the-scenes fight over a new bill to transfer Russian assets to Ukraine, pitting the top two members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee against each other. The panel will mark up the bipartisan REPO bill on Wednesday, which if passed and signed into law would allow the U.S. to send money seized from Russia’s Central Bank and other institutions to help Ukraine rebuild. Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the top Republican on SFRC, introduced the legislation. But two people familiar with the backroom discussion said Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), who leads the committee, will offer an amendment that could water it down. Speaking on the condition of anonymity to detail closed-door discussions, they both said Cardin wants to introduce language that would allow asset transfers only when all G7 member nations agree. That would add an extra layer of complexity into an already dicey legal and logistical matter, they argue. This discussion has clearly leaked already, as a pro-Ukraine group has gotten heavy-hitter signatures on a letter batting down Cardin’s idea and already sent it to congressional offices. “It would be a mistake were the committee to add in new provisions to the REPO Act that require the approval of third countries — even allies — before the U.S. can transfer Russian state assets,” reads the letter organized by Razom for Ukraine. “It would be unprecedented and unconstitutional to require the prior consent of foreign governments before the U.S. president can take discretionary action.” Former Treasury Secretary LAWRENCE SUMMERS and U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine like WILLIAM TAYLOR, MARIE YOVANOVITCH and JOHN HERBST put their names on the missive. Cardin’s office declined to comment. A congressional aide familiar with Cardin’s rationale said the argument for the amendment is that it would make it easier to get buy-in for such transfers from European countries that wouldn’t want to act unilaterally. The aide was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
| | | |   | | | | | MAKE A DEAL: Israel’s rejection of a two-state solution and the continuing war on Hamas in Gaza is seeding hatred and losing Israel prestige on the world stage, the European Union’s top diplomat said Monday. “Which are the other solutions they have in mind?” JOSEP BORRELL asked Monday rhetorically, per The Washington Post’s LOVEDAY MORRIS, EMILY RAUHALA and HAZEM BALOUSHA. “To make all the Palestinians leave? To kill … them?” Meanwhile, Israel has continued its operations in Gaza’s south, leading to heavy fighting in Khan Younis — including in at least one hospital — and violence in designated safe spaces in the enclave. “I think that we have to stop talking about the peace process and start talking more concretely about the two-state solution process,” Borrell said. He will soon present a 12-point plan for Middle East peace during meetings in Brussels, one part of which includes the creation of a “Preparatory Peace Conference.”
| | | | — ELIZABETH CANNON started on Monday as the first executive director of the Office of Information and Communications Technology and Services in the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Commerce Department. She most recently was senior corporate counsel for global trade at Microsoft and is a DOJ alum. — ADAM HODGE, who served as assistant U.S. trade representative for media and public affairs, and acting senior director for press and spokesperson at the NSC, is joining the consulting firm Bully Pulpit International as a managing director. — At the end of the month, MARC GARLASCO will be division chief leading the Pentagon's new Civilian Protection Center of Excellence’s work supporting the combatant commands. Garlasco is a former Pentagon official and military adviser at PAX Protection of Civilians, a Dutch NGO. — JEOHN SALONE FAVORS is now assistant secretary for counterterrorism, threat prevention and law enforcement policy at DHS. He most recently was senior counsel in the Justice Department’s National Security Division, and is a CIA, State and NSC alum. — MICHAEL MORRIS is leaving the White House on Monday where he has served as director of public affairs for the Office of the National Cyber Director. He is staying in Washington and will continue to work in communications in the private sector.
| | — REUEL MARC GERECHT and RAY TAKEYH, The New York Times: Why Iran doesn’t want a war — K.T. McFARLAND, Fox News: Biden’s incompetence could force us into another Middle East war — ERIC SCHMIDT, Foreign Affairs: Ukraine is losing the drone war
| | — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, 8:30 a.m.: 2024 Homeland Security Conference — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Nomination hearing for MELISSA DALTON as Air Force undersecretary; DOUGLAS SCHMIDT as director of operational test and evaluation; and APRILLE ERICSSON as assistant secretary for science and technology — The Washington Post, 11:30 a.m.: Discussion with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. OKSANA MARKAROVA on Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia, U.S. military aid and her country’s future — Atlantic Council, 12:00 p.m.: Serving communities with disability in conflict — Stimson Center, 1:00 p.m.: China’s use of armed coercion: to win without fighting — National Defense Industrial Association, 1:00 p.m.: Directed energy weapon supply chains: securing the path to the future — Government Executive Media Group, 2:00 p.m.: Advancing government resilience with AI — Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, 2:45 p.m.: Improving export controls enforcement — Institute of World Politics, 3:00 p.m.: Political Islam and its international implications — George Washington University, 4:00 p.m.: Why Ukraine's civilians are integral to the war effort: understanding the roles and motivations of wartime civilian actors — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 8:00 p.m.: China and the Pacific islands Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose plans take forever to work –– if they work at all. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always finds a way.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
