Speed reading into 2022

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Jan 03,2022 11:02 am

Jan 03, 2022

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. It's 2022, which means we're all playing the awkward annual game of When Is It Too Late To Say Happy New Year? Belatedly: Happy New Year.

Keep an eye on Playbook this week for a word from several prominent Canadian podcasters who'll share what they're watching in the year ahead.

We're also planning another virtual trivia night. BROCK STEPHENSON , once upon a time a B.C. regional adviser in STEPHEN HARPER's PMO, romped to victory as a one-man team on Dec. 21. Details on the next event coming soon. Plot your revenge accordingly.

DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING IN 2022 — As Ottawa slowly wakes up after a holiday slumber, Playbook is focusing on a handful of key metrics, trends and people.

— Hospitalization numbers: Omicron's shocking transmissibility broke the Y-axis of every armchair epidemiologist tracking Covid case numbers across Canada. The skyrocketing caseload and limited testing capacity virtually everywhere has touched off a debate about whether or not the basic case count should even guide decisions about new restrictions.

The metric that matters to everyone is hospitalization, but even that produces asterisks . More and more Covid-positive patients are popping up in hospital beds for unrelated reasons and adding to the Big Covid Number — a discrepancy Ontario's official number-crunchers will soon accommodate.

The true mark of Omicron's deadliness will likely be found, same as it ever was, in intensive care units. Most public officials are cautiously optimistic the variant is broadly milder than Delta, though the inevitable caveat is that a prolonged spike in cases could still overwhelm most healthcare systems.

Quebecers are under curfew as politicians scramble to react appropriately. Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is reportedly considering harsher restrictions, too. If ICU numbers remain low, the political calculus will change dramatically. (Look to House of Commons attendance when it returns at the end of the month for evidence of the risk politicians are willing to take.)

In Ontario, ICU numbers are creeping up. Keep an eye on that metric.

→ Key stat: Nanos Research's final 2021 poll showed Covid surging into the lead as Canada's biggest national issue. The environment is second, with jobs and the economy a close third. But the gap between the virus and the rest of the field is narrower than previous waves. Omicron tops the list for 23.4 percent of Canadians, almost half its previous peak.

— Cabinet ministers: Tuesday afternoon will bring the first major federal presser of the year. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER and Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU will give reporters the latest on negotiations with Indigenous groups on compensation for First Nations children. Reps of those groups will also be in attendance.

The news of a deal broke just before the new year, only two weeks after CHRYSTIA FREELAND 's fiscal update set aside C$40 billion in potential compensation.

This is the first federal presser, but it won't be the last. Parliament isn't in session, and the winter interregnum gives the government an opportunity to fan out across the land — typically with checks in hand, and maybe at a community center or town hall near you. Omicron will mean more virtual events and fewer flying hours for the government's Challenger jets. But as the government sets out its next priorities, watch Cabinet's movements.

— The last piece of the childcare puzzle: One major priority lingers. The feds failed to persuade Ford's Ontario to take the money on the table for cheaper childcare. The Globe and Mail reported in December that talks were "ramping up." This is an election year for Ford, and C$10-a-day sounds pretty good to key parent voter demographics. Sealing the deal would also count as a decisive victory for Families Minister KARINA GOULD.

— The next agenda: November's Throne Speech laid out a lot of potential priorities. Four bills are at second reading in the House. They'd reduce mandatory minimums for certain drug crimes, enshrine key pieces of Freeland's fiscal update, tweak the rules governing judges, and alter some of the Senate's procedures and practices.

None of those do a legislative agenda make. Government House Leader MARK HOLLAND survived the four-week sprint to end 2021, but the decks are now wiped clean. Playbook is taking bets on the first bill to be tabled in 2022. And how many of the biggest election priorities — reconciliation, climate, housing affordability — will wait for Budget 2022?

— The cost of everything: Count on the Conservatives, formally led by ERIN O'TOOLE and rhetorically led by PIERRE POILIEVRE, to continue pushing inflation as a key failure of the Trudeau government. Every StatsCan report going back months says prices are generally rising.

Economists insist it's mostly "transitory" — i.e. temporary; i.e. not permanent. But south of the border, the meaning of the word transitory is in flux. Meanwhile, bills aren't getting cheaper for most of us.

→ Key stat: Ipsos finds 48 percent of Canadians worried about the price of groceries and food getting in the way of their own financial security. The price of housing sits in second. But the pollster says only 1 percent specifically cited inflation — a key Tory talking point (#Justinflation) on the floor of the House of Commons.

What are you watching in 2022? Drop us a line.

AROUND THE HILL

Justin Trudeau and a senior adviser shuffle magnets on a whiteboard

Justin Trudeau and a senior adviser, John Brodhead, shuffle magnets on a whiteboard. | Photo courtesy of Adam Scotti

THE PMO'S-EYE VIEW — If you've seen JUSTIN TRUDEAU at a public event, chances are you've also caught a glimpse of his longtime photographer, ADAM SCOTTI. The red-headed shutterbug always posts his best shots of the year on Medium. Even if you haven't spotted him, you've seen his work all over the place (see: Instagram, Maclean's).

Playbook readers who were obsessed with Cabinet speculation will appreciate this snap of Trudeau and senior adviser JOHN BRODHEAD shuffling around literal magnets on Sept. 29, almost a month before the swearing-in on Oct. 26. The only sure bets, visible on the adjacent whiteboard, appeared to be the PM himself and Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND.

Other highlights: more Cabinet selection, featuring other people in the room and blurry picks.

— PMO photographer ALEX TÉTREAULT also shared a year in review. Watch for his nod to legendary travel agent SCOTT MCCORD. Ctrl-F for a vintage McCord day-saving feat.

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PAPER TRAIL

As the federal vaccine task force rolled out recommendations at relative hyperspeed in 2020, the volunteer advisory group sent regular letters to then-health minister PATTY HAJDU and then-innovation minister NAVDEEP BAINS . Playbook has asked for most of them. Every piece of correspondence helps tell the grand story of how the government reacted to the crisis of the century in real time.

First in our mailbox: the ninth and tenth letters, written and delivered in September 2020.

— The speed of vaccines: In the pandemic's earliest days, successful vaxx candidates were thought to be as many as several years away. By summer, the prevailing view was still that inoculations wouldn't get underway until well into 2021. On Sept. 17, 2020, Public Health Agency officials told the task force that it was "working to be ready for all potential scenarios," with the ultimate goal of being ready to immunize by January 2021."

Pfizer and Moderna beat that timeline, sending first shipments to Canada less than three months later — before the end of 2020.

— Vaccine confidence: The task force co-chairs, JOANNE LANGLEY and MARK LIEVONEN, insist in one of the letters that a vaccine injury compensation program would be essential to public trust in the shots. No such program was on the books outside of Quebec before Covid. Langley and Lievonon said the absence of a program "could seriously undermine" Canada's immunization efforts.

PHAC launched a compensation program last June, administered by the hired consultants at Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton. CTV News reported in December that only a handful of 400 claims had been approved.

MEDIA ROOM

— Top of POLITICO this morning: Could Jan. 6 happen again?

— What one idea will define 2022? Our colleagues in Brussels asked around.

— Over on The Hub, SEAN SPEER and KAREN RESTOULE share their predictions for Canada.

— Stat’s HELEN BRANSWELL offers 10 lessons learned from the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Call me naive,” she writes, “but it never occurred to me before this pandemic that political leaders would put the lives of their citizens at risk by downplaying or downright lying about a disease outbreak, just because telling the truth might jeopardize their political fortunes.”

— Here’s JASON KIRBY’s 12 charts that show how Canada can “build back better” after the pandemic.

— In the Globe and Mail, MICHELLE CARBERT profiles the international development minister. HARJIT SAJJAN talked about the challenges of growing up in a rural village in Punjab, India — and how that personal connection prepares him for his new role. Noted: This was Sajjan's first interview since his October swearing-in.

— In the Ottawa Citizen, Chretien-era cabmin SERGIO MARCHI advises the Liberals to appoint the next China envoy from outside the traditional diplomatic ranks. Among those who liked Marchi's post on LinkedIn: former cabinet colleague ALLAN ROCK and former DALTON MCGUINTY chief of staff DON GUY.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Sen. THANH HAI NGO and Liberal MP SONIA SIDHU.

Former defense minister DAVID PRATT also celebrates today.

REBECCA BLAIKIE had a birthday Jan. 1. … NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH celebrated Jan. 2 — as did former Sen. JERRY GRAFSTEIN, former B.C. politician GORDON WILSON and MARION REID, former lieutenant governor of Prince Edward Island.

Birthdays or other social notices for the Playbook community? Send them our way.

Spotted: Newfoundland and Labrador Premier ANDREW FUREY, also an orthopedic surgeon, heading to Happy Valley-Goose Bay to help administer Covid-19 vaccines.

DAVID COHEN, U.S. ambassador to Canada, lunching with British High Commissioner SUSANNAH GOSHKO. Table talk: “The importance of U.S., U.K. and Canadian cooperation and leadership in the world.” … MICHAEL IGNATIEFF reciting Pericles on the Acropolis.

Conservative finance critic PIERRE POILIEVRE used social media to celebrate his fourth anniversary. … Former Liberal MP CELINA CAESAR-CHEVANNES did the same to celebrate her “Jordan anniversary.”

Still on anniversaries: Economist ARMINE YALNIZYAN celebrated 10 years on the bird app. “I have learned so much about the world and myself through our exchanges and your reflection of the world around you,” she tweeted.

Canada’s top envoy in Washington, KIRSTEN HILLMAN, got a raise (old salary range, new salary range).

Movers and shakers: Personnel news piled up over the holidays. BROOK SIMPSON is off the Hill after a long run as a senior aide to FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and AMARJEET SOHI: "For most of us staffers it’s a matter of when, not if, we leave. You’re lucky if you can go on your own terms and with your optimism and idealism intact."

Simpson's next stop: Economic development at Amazon Studios.

Another staple of the Trudeau PMO is bidding adieu to the building formerly known as Langevin. DAN ARNOLD, the director of research and advertising since the PM's very first days, is leaving after "over 600 musical-themed PowerPoint presentations."

SABRINA KIM, late of the PMO and most recently STEVEN GUILBEAULT's dcomm, takes up a new gig as dcomm to Defense Minister ANITA ANAND. … JESSICA ERITOU is a comms adviser to Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND. … ALISON MURPHY is taking over as press secretary to Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU.

Just ahead of the holidays, Foreign Affairs Minister MELANIE JOLY announced new ambassadorships: RAJANI ALEXANDER (Guatemala), NADIA BURGER (Indonesia), MICHAEL CALLAN (Algeria), MARK FLETCHER (Korea), GREGORY GALLIGAN (Iraq), ALAN W. HAMSON (Kazakhstan), LEE-ANNE HERMANN (Burkina Faso), TROY LULASHNYK (Austria), PATRICK WITTMAN (Switzerland).

REID SIRRS, who was Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan, has been posted to Argentina.

Joly also announced new high commissioners: CAMERON MACKAY (India), LILLY NICHOLLS (Bangladesh), WAYNE ROBSON (Malaysia) and CHRISTOPHER THORNLEY (Kenya). PATRICK HÉBERT becomes consul general in Chandigarh (India). In other consulate moves: DIEDRAH KELLY heads to Mumbai and BENOIT PRÉFONTAINE to Bengaluru.

DANIELLE VICHA is now an outreach and engagement manager at Fisheries and Oceans, working on the International Marine Protected Areas Conference.

Media mentions: JULIA-SIMONE RUTGERS has been named justice fund writer in residence at The Walrus. … Canadian journo in New York ERIN HUDSON is a distressed debt reporter at Bloomberg, starting today.

RHYTHM SACHDEVA is starting as a copy editor for Metroland Media. … LESLIE YOUNG has left Global News for “a new adventure” … WENDY FREEMAN, vice president of CTV News, stepped down at the end of 2021.

Applications are now open for the R. JAMES TRAVERS Foreign Corresponding Fellowship. … The 2022 CJF Awards are also open for applications.

Farewells: Mi’kmaq host CANDY PALMATER died on Dec. 25. APTN remembers her here.

Former Ottawa Centre MPP RICHARD PATTEN has died. “He was a friend and mentor, and will be missed,” MP and former MPP YASIR NAQVI said when he shared the news.

JOHN EFFORD, a former cabinet minister from Newfoundland and Labrador, died Sunday at the age of 77. “He made our political culture more unique,” Summa Strategies chair person TIM POWERS shared. “His public service won't be forgotten.”

Former Liberal minister JOE COMUZZI died at 88 on New Year's Eve . "In whatever capacity he held, he always remained a fearless advocate for the people of Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario," his daughter Mary-Catherine told CBC News.

Condolences to ROBERT ASSELIN, who shared news of the death of his mother, CARMEN BESNER ASSELIN.

PROZONE

In news for Pro s:

— USTR Tai faces a world of challenges in 2022.
— Key dates on the 2022 trade calendar, including the first Americas Summit since 2018.
— Amazon and Google deploy their armies to thwart antitrust bills.
— DataPoint: Global vaccine inequity continues as Omicron spreads.
— AUKUS deal could be a boon for U.S. defense industry beyond submarines.
— 2022 seen as a pivotal lap in the space race with China.
— What top defense industry experts are watching in 2022.

TRIVIA

On this date in 1947, the first official Canadian citizenship was granted.

"Without citizenship, much else is meaningless," Prime Minister WILLIAM LYON MACKENZIE KING said at the time. And here’s what Prime Minister Trudeau said this past weekend on the 75th anniversary of the act.

Today’s question: Who introduced the bill titled The Canadian Citizenship Act in 1946?

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

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