BEER BATTLE — It's BOB and DOUG versus JUSTIN and CHRYSTIA. Or at least that's how Canada's biggest beer lobby wants to frame its foamy fight against an annual tax increase on lagers and ales across the nation. Beer Canada enlisted the services of RICK MORANIS and DAVE THOMAS to reprise the famous lovable hoser duo of SCTV lore for a new ad campaign. The lobby group also unleashed a meeting blitz on the Hill. Labatt has tapped well-connected consultants at Enterprise Canada, Navigator and GT & Company to work the halls of power. They say they sense some momentum in advance of the March 28 budget date. Media coverage sure hasn't been a problem. The nation's legions of craft brewers are also mixing it up. They've got a different argument than the big players — and Impact Public Affairs on their side. — What's at stake: The Liberals first increased the excise tax on alcohol in Budget 2017. The government sensed a revenue-generating opportunity, but the doc noted the policy pivot was about more than that: "Excise levies can also be used to achieve specific policy goals, such as improving health." Translation: Drink less, people. The rate hadn't moved much in decades. Then-finance minister BILL MORNEAU hiked it by two percent and pegged ongoing annual increases to inflation. Those were in the halcyon days of price stability, when the inflation rate sat comfortably within the Bank of Canada's target of 1–3 percent. — Different times: The next hike is scheduled for April 1. The rate will jump 6.3 percent. For the last year, brewers have forked over C$34.82 per hectoliter of brewed beer containing over 2.5 percent alcohol. A single hectoliter is equivalent to about 282 355ml cans of beers, for an excise tax of roughly 12.3 cents per can. The new per-can tax haul rises to 13.1 cents. — Dueling solutions: Beer Canada president CJ HÉLIE wants the escalator to pause until inflation settles back down to the BOC's target range — a "very simple, low-cost measure." The Canadian Craft Brewers' Association, which shares some of Hélie's members, wants a re-think of the excise tax structure that's friendlier to smaller brewers. Executive director CHRISTINE COMEAU's solution? An exemption on duties for the first 10,000 hectoliters every year, and reduced duties for the smallest brewers. — House support: Hélie described several years of conversations with federal officials as "not very productive on either side." Covid changed everything. Restaurants closed. Festivals, concert venues and pro sports canceled events. Beer sales sank. Since last spring, the dynamic in Ottawa "has changed 180 degrees." Hélie says officials have heard from more than beer execs — grain farmers have felt the pinch, and workers' unions are speaking out. The Conservatives are a slam dunk. PAT KELLY opposes the escalator in principle, because it strips MPs of the power to approve tax changes every year. Kelly's Bill C-266 would ax the escalator. (Kelly also thinks the rate is simply too high.) Hélie also claims support from New Democrats and a majority of the Liberal caucus. The House finance committee sided with Beer Canada, recommending in a pre-budget report tabled Friday that the budget freeze the excise tax for two years — and until inflation drops beneath 3 percent. (A skeptic would doubt the influence of a committee submitting recommendations less than three weeks before the budget is tabled.) — The argument against: Freeland has telegraphed restraint in the budget. Precious tax revenue can keep the government's all-important debt-to-GDP ratio in check. A freeze on the escalator leaves a lot of revenue on the table for a government bent on increasing health-care spending and unveiling a robust (and expensive) response to JOE BIDEN's Inflation Reduction Act. If it's off the table, nobody is admitting it. But listening to the beer buddies Bob and Doug means disappointing somebody else. Say, BOB HORNUNG of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association and DOUG FORD of Ontario. WHY TUESDAY? — Freeland slipped her budget date announcement into a brief statement in the House on Friday. The handful of devoted office pools on and around the Hill got their answer, and the Tuesday gamblers took home the pot. Eighteen budgets since BRIAN MULRONEY took office have been tabled on a Tuesday. Wednesdays take second place, with six. Mondays and Thursdays are knotted at five. Tabling on a Wednesday would mean dodging all-morning caucus meetings and afternoon private members' business in the House. Tuesdays and Thursdays offer more room for House debate. Freeland tabled her 2022 budget on a Thursday. But March 30 is a no-go. The Nova Scotia Mass Casualty Commission is scheduled to release its final report that day. Know someone who could use Ottawa Playbook? Direct them to this link. Five days a week, zero dollars.
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