FREE RIDERS — That’s what The Wall Street Journal called us. The newspaper set off the chattering class when it suggested Canada should be relegated to the kids table or maybe replaced with Poland for failing on its NATO defense spending commitments. For the Conservatives, the editorial was yet another indication of failure by Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU. Foreign affairs critic MICHAEL CHONG tweeted it shows “Trudeau is putting our economy at risk by ignoring primary U.S. interest,” which is national security. Not that the Harper government ever reached the magical 2 percent of GDP spending target, either. Canada’s missed the mark since before it ever had one. “Minister rejects claim Canada getting free ride in NATO,” one Calgary Herald headline screamed, followed by “Nato Shame Not New to Canadians,” in the Ottawa Citizen … in the early 1980s. — Controversial figure: Canadian Forces College defense studies professor PAUL MITCHELL tells Playbook the 2 percent figure is “really a red herring” because the government already can't spend the 1.38 percent it’s budgeting right now. The burning questions for defense policy are more like: how should the Armed Forces fix its chronic staffing issues and how should Canada strategically build out its military? Should Ottawa prioritize being ready for high-tech, air-sea conflicts that might happen in the Indo-Pacific or Arctic, or continental defense in response to climate change and continental disasters? “But none of the parties are particularly interested in talking about the specifics of defense because it's not a vote-getter,” Mitchell tells Playbook. “Nobody really talks about, ‘OK, but what do you actually want the military to do?’ That's the 900-pound gorilla in the room.” — Not going away: Whether 2 percent makes sense or not, NATO has once again made GDP the de facto measuring stick. DAVID PERRY, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, tells Playbook he was “surprised” to see Canada implicitly agree on the “clear and stark” language coming out of this week’s NATO summit on making 2 percent the floor, not the ceiling. “The alliance just doubled down on it,” he said, yet Canada’s spending is headed in the other direction. Perry said this means the government should in the short term worry about capacity, increase the pace of procurement and improve recruiting. Then plan to tackle the target in the long run because “you need both the money in the bank and the ability to actually spend it to achieve that.” — What’s next: All eyes on the long-anticipated defense policy update, announced in the 2022 budget and yet still sitting in the government’s back pocket. — Dust has settled: He may have been prodded by allies behind the scenes. But the PM is back on Canadian soil with the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, behind him. “I didn't see anyone put Trudeau in a headlock for not making sufficient progress towards 2 percent,”writes NPSIA prof STEPHEN SAIDEMAN, assessing how expectations were managed. “Canada did the minimum to keep the criticism down, but perhaps didn't really do enough to set up the Latvia mission for success.” Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! | 
