Is Iran serious about nuclear talks?

By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by Lockheed Martin

Since the election of hard-line President Ibrahim Raisi, Iran has stated willingness to reopen talks about the U.S. reentering the Iran nuclear deal, but it has never specified a time frame or a date. | Office of Iran Presidency via AP

With help from Bryan Bender, Dave Brown and Daniel Lippman

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The new Iranian government agreed to resume nuclear deal talks by the end of November –– but some in the U.S. met that announcement with a large dollop of skepticism.

In a Wednesday morning tweet, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister ALI BAGHERI KANI said that Tehran will once again negotiate America’s reentry into the nuclear accord and will announce the exact date “in the course of the next week.” It’s the first time Iran’s new administration offered a timeline for its return to multilateral talks in Vienna instead of the usual “soon.”

Bagheri Kani was in Brussels to meet with his European Union counterpart ENRIQUE MORA to revive negotiations that stalled in June after six rounds.

The problem is there are few in the U.S. government who believe Iran’s sincerity. “Seems like the most laughable delay tactic ever,” a senior Democratic congressional aide told NatSec Daily. “Dragging these dead-end talks while they ratchet up their activity is a win-win for them.”

So you don’t believe Iran at all, we asked? “Not for a millisecond,” the staffer replied.

The skepticism is warranted. Since the election of new hard-line President EBRAHIM RAISI in June, Iran has shown little interest in reviving the sputtering talks. When they do signal a willingness to talk, they never specify a date — and consistently delay plans to resume negotiations.

But ERIC BREWER, deputy director of the project on nuclear issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., said that Iran’s new offer is much more credible.

Seriously agreeing to negotiations would “take the wind out of the sails about talk of a ‘plan B,’” he said, which could see the U.S. decide not to reenter the accord and find a new way to stifle Iran’s nuclear program. What’s more, Iran doesn’t want to get censured at the next International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors meeting, where the officials could decide to punish Iran for its latest nuclear advancements.

“That would be Iran’s logic,” Brewer said, “but this still gives Iran another month to ramp up its nuclear activities.”

For the moment, though, the Biden administration is open and willing to give Iran a chance to chat. “Our commitment remains pursuing a diplomatic path forward,” White House press secretary JEN PSAKI told reporters today. “Our framing continues to be compliance for compliance.”

However, the State Department sounds a lot less optimistic than the White House. “We have seen the reports but do not have any further details about a possible return to Vienna talks in November,” a State Department spokesperson told us. “This window [to negotiate] will not remain open forever as Iran continues to take provocative nuclear steps, so we hope that they come to Vienna to negotiate quickly and in good faith.”

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‘LET’S GET THIS STUFF OVER WITH’: That’s the message to President JOE BIDEN from the federal judge who ran the Assassination Records Review Board that Congress created to make public all the remaining files that might shed light on the 1963 assassination of President JOHN F. KENNEDY.

“I do intend, I think I should write a letter to the president and say ’come on, let’s get this stuff over with,’” Judge JOHN TUNHEIM told our colleague BRYAN BENDER. “It should have happened in 2017. I really don’t think there’s any reason for any delays any longer. I do think that I need to speak out.”

Biden, following the lead of his predecessor DONALD TRUMP, once again kicked the can down the road on full disclosure of thousands of documents from the CIA and other agencies, including about covert operations against Cuba, citing the potential harm to national security.

What’s being hidden? “A lot of that had to do with the names of undercover agents and assets,” said Tunheim, the chief judge for the United States District Court for the District of Minnesota. “I’m not sure the opinion of the agencies matters on this anymore. They have an amazing ability to be able to conjure up the possibility of harm from the release of information.”

But what about the argument that sources and methods must still be protected? “Whatever reason they can come up with, sources are no longer living from the 1960s,” Tunheim said. “I can’t believe that anyone who was a critical source who may have been protected by our redactions in the 1990s is still alive. Methods? Well, some methods are probably still in use. It’s hard for me to believe a method we used in the 1960s is not known by somebody.”

What’s his verdict? Tunheim buys the official findings of the Warren Commission that Lee Harvey Oswald, an ex-Marine who had defected to the Soviet Union and had ties to Cuban exiles, shot Kennedy in Dallas — to a point.

“He’d be convicted in a criminal trial,” Tunheim said. “But who he met with in advance, what contacts he had, are issues that are lost to history. There were other leads that day that perhaps weren’t followed because it didn’t support that story. I think there was a lot of stuff that was not disclosed to the Commission and not written about in those reports, the secret operations against Castro, for example.”

"It is time to put the issue behind us," Tunheim added. “Ultimately, I really don’t see any reason for any further secrecy here. They should be released promptly.”

MILLEY CONFIRMS CHINA’S HYPERSONIC WEAPONS TEST: Gen. MARK MILLEY seemingly acknowledged that China conducted a test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August, describing the drill as “very concerning” in an interview with DAVID RUBENSTEIN on Bloomberg Television.

“What you saw — and I don’t want to get too much into the classification of what we saw — but what we saw was a very significant event of a test of a hypersonic weapons system,” Milley said.

“I don’t know if it’s quite a Sputnik moment, but I think it’s very close to that,” the Joint Chiefs chair added, referring to the first artificial satellite launched into space by the Soviet Union in 1957. “So it’s a very significant technological event that occurred … by the Chinese. And it has all of our attention.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson ZHAO LIJIAN has downplayed the August exercise — first reported last week by The Financial Times — as “routine,” maintaining that it involved a spacecraft, not a missile, per The Associated Press.

The Financial Times also reported last week that China conducted an earlier hypersonic weapons test in July — launching a rocket “that used a ‘fractional orbital bombardment’ system to propel a nuclear-capable ‘hypersonic glide vehicle’ around the earth for the first time.”

OVER 400 AMERICANS IN AFG: BRIAN MCKEON , the deputy secretary of State for management and resources, told members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that there are over 400 American citizens still in Afghanistan.

Around 225 of them are ready to leave the country, he said, while less than 190 still want to stay.

SUDAN’S DETAINED PM RELEASED: ABDALLA HAMDOK, the Sudanese prime minister overthrown in a military coup, has returned home with his wife –– but his nation’s fragile democratic transition remains in peril.

The embassies of Western governments in Khartoum threw their support behind Hamdok in a joint statement today, putting more pressure on Sudan’s armed forces. The U.S. already threatened to withhold up to $700 million in needed aid to the country.

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN spoke with Hamdok on Tuesday, during which he expressed his concern with the military takeover. However, many civilian leaders remain imprisoned by the coup plotters, and three pro-democracy activists were arrested overnight.

JOSHUA MESERVEY, a senior policy analyst for Africa and the Middle East at The Heritage Foundation, is pessimistic that the Biden administration can do much to change the situation in Sudan.

“US unfortunately can't force Sudan security services to relinquish power, simply doesn't have enough pull to achieve that,” he tweeted today. “In fact, there are other countries w/ more influence there than US has--Turkey, UAE, maybe KSA, maybe Qatar, maybe China. It's crowded field.”

CANADA’S NEW DEFENSE CHIEF: ANITA ANAND was picked by Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU as the country’s new defense minister. The new boss doesn’t have any military experience, but she did successfully lead Canada’s efforts in vaccine procurement.

The hope is she will have similar success leading Ottawa’s armed forces. "Like you saw with vaccines, I am determined," Anand told reporters in French on Tuesday. "I work very hard and I am results-oriented. So, these are the qualities that I will bring to this file."

Her first big task will be to handle a ministry in crisis since 11 current and former senior military leaders face allegations of sexual misconduct.

"I will be asking the department for an analysis of the recommendations that have already been implemented as well as the ones that have not been," Anand said. "There's no one switch that we can turn on to change everything overnight. This is going to take time and, while that may frustrate some, I want to assure everyone that I will put in the necessary work for as long as it takes to get this done."

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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CHINA SAYS TAIWAN ‘HAS NO RIGHT’ TO BE SEATED AT U.N.: Beijing is pushing back against Blinken's call for greater participation by Taiwan in United Nations activities.

“Taiwan has no right to join the United Nations,” MA XIAOGUANG, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, said today, per AFP. “The United Nations is an international governmental organisation composed of sovereign states. … Taiwan is a part of China.”

The remarks from the Chinese government official are the latest to ramp up tensions between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan, and they come after the top U.S. diplomat lamented that the democratic island nation “has not been permitted to contribute to UN efforts” as of late.

“Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the UN system is not a political issue, but a pragmatic one,” Blinken said in a statement Tuesday marking the 50th anniversary of the United Nations’ decision to seat China and expel Taiwan.

“Taiwan’s exclusion undermines the important work of the UN and its related bodies, all of which stand to benefit greatly from its contributions,” Blinken added.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down and who really has the president's ear in West Wing Playbook, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

SENATE DEM BACKS CYBERSECURITY STANDARDS: Sen. GARY PETERS (D-Mich.), one of the key cyber lawmakers in Congress, backed the White House’s stance to impose minimum cybersecurity standards on key industries.

“There’s no question that when it comes to critical infrastructure, there need to be standards in place to make sure that they are taking every measure necessary to protect those systems,” Peters told the Washington Post’s JOSEPH MARKS. “I think it’s also important that these regulations are flexible, understanding that the nature of these attacks, the technology used in these attacks, all of these things are going to be constantly changing.”

Marks wrote about how Peters’ stance reflects a big shift in the government's view of cybersecurity policy. “Lawmakers and executive branch officials hoped for years that market forces would compel companies to better protect themselves against hacking. But, amid a surge in attacks that’s threatening the economy and national security, they’re beginning to consider a more active government role,” he reported.

DRONES FOR DAYS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report the Air Force Research Laboratory has awarded Kratos $17 million to design and develop a follow-on unmanned aircraft to the low-cost and stealthy X-58A Valkyrie.

Kratos’ new Off Board Sensing Station drone will be able to take off and land conventionally, a departure from the Valkyrie, which uses a catapult for takeoff and a parachute to land.

The Air Force also announced Tuesday that a $17 million contract was awarded to General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, but it’s unclear what its offering will be.

Work will be performed at Kratos facilities in California, Oklahoma and Texas, and at General Atomics’ facility in California. The OBSS program includes an optional 15-month manufacture and demonstration period for both companies, which could bring the total contract value to $49 million apiece.

U.S. UNMANNED SHIPS IN EXERCISE: The U.S. Navy on Tuesday completed its first at-sea exercise with unmanned ships in partnership with a foreign force.

“During the two-day training exercise, Task Force 59 integrated and evaluated new MANTAS T-12 unmanned surface vessels (USV) that operated alongside manned U.S. patrol craft and Bahrain Defense Force maritime assets,” reads a statement from the U.S. Fifth Fleet. “This marked the first time NAVCENT integrated USVs with manned assets at sea in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations. New Horizon was also the first time for NAVCENT’s integration of USVs with manned assets at sea alongside partner forces.”

“MANTAS T-12 is an unmanned surface vessel, designed by Maritime Tactical Systems, capable of operating fully or semi-autonomously in waters up to sea state 7, or in waves up to 20 or 30 feet,” Breaking Defense’s JUSTIN KATZ reported.

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WARNER: LACK OF “HAVANA SYNDROME” INTEL “PROBLEMATIC”: Senate Intelligence Committee Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) today lamented the slow pace of the investigation into the cause and origins of the so-called Havana Syndrome afflicting American diplomats — but he warned that should a rival nation be found culpable, the U.S. response will “pose one of the most challenging policy choices” yet for the Biden administration.

“The fact that we still don’t know for sure who did it and how these attacks were carried out is very, very problematic, to say the least. We are, in a bipartisan way, absolutely on top of this,” Warner told POLITICO Playbook in a virtual interview.

“I think that the administration, when they reach their conclusion, will lay that out,” he said, adding: “The challenge will be, when they lay it out — particularly if it’s a nation-state that originates this activity — what we do then is going to pose one of the most challenging policy choices for this administration to date.”

POLITICO previously reported that Biden administration officials have told the congressional intelligence committees they believe the victims were hit with a directed-energy weapon wielded by a hostile foreign government, likely Russia — though the investigation is ongoing.

FIGHT OVER DIVERSITY IN THE IC: The House Intelligence Committee held a public hearing today about improving diversity in the intelligence community’s ranks –– and it turned into a partisan brawl.

The panel’s top Republican, Rep. DEVIN NUNES (R-Calif.), said the hearing reflected “an infatuation with left-wing dogma & politicized actions that have nothing to do with winning wars,” adding "We can't counter [a] hypersonic missile launch with better pronoun usage."

That didn’t sit too well with Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), who all but called the ranking member a racist. “Maybe you believe that an IC comprised of white males is the result of a perfectly meritocratic system. Maybe you believe that white males have some racial or ethnic or genetic advantage over others; If you do, there’s a word for that,” Himes said.

NYT COLUMNIST WANTS NEW NATSEC TEAM AROUND BIDEN: Conservative New York Times columnist BRET STEPHENS wrote an op-ed blaming Biden and his team for “America’s crumbling global position.”

Stephens argues that the administration is misguided to seek a return to the Iran deal when Tehran’s proxies attack American troops; feckless in getting Russians to stop their cyber espionage on the U.S.; and unable to articulate its Taiwan policy accurately.

For those and other reasons, Stephens says “America’s position in the world as a credible ally to embattled friends and a serious foe to adventurist enemies is visibly crumbling.”

While Stephens mostly blames the president, he says what’s happening in the world isn’t solely Biden’s fault. “[I]t’s also true that the president is being badly advised ... Bottom-line advice to the president: Assemble a new national security team, now.”

NatSec Daily asked Stephens over email who, exactly, he wants fired. He responded: “I have in mind the entire national security team” –– specifically mentioning national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES, CIA Director BILL BURNS, SecState Blinken, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS — “though changes probably should not happen all at once.”

“The president's repeated failure to be properly briefed on basic facts, such as the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, or to anticipate events that came to pass just weeks or months later, such as the fall of Kabul or the surge in migration, suggests to me that he is not getting the advice and expertise he deserves,” Stephens told us.

As for who he’d like to see advise Biden, Stephens suggested former NATO chief JAMES STAVRIDIS, former Democratic Nebraska Sen. BOB KERREY, former DHS boss JEH JOHNSON, former top Pentagon official MICHÈLE FLOURNOY, and former U.S. Special Operations Commander BILL MCRAVEN.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

— JONAH FORCE HILL is now a director for cybersecurity and emerging technology policy at the National Security Council. He most recently was a cyber security strategist (senior program manager) at the Secret Service and executive director of the agency's Cyber Investigations Advisory Board.

— SAMANTHA BRENNAN has been appointed to serve as Guam’s homeland security adviser by Gov. LOU LEON GUERRERO. Brennan previously was director of the Department of Corrections and served at the Judiciary of Guam for 25 years.

— ARIF RAFIQ, Foreign Policy: “Don’t Blame Khalilzad for the Afghanistan Debacle”

— STEWART M. PATRICK, Foreign Affairs: “ The International Order Isn’t Ready for the Climate Crisis”

— MARIA ABI-HABIB, The New York Times: “As Gangs’ Power Grows, Haiti’s Police Are Outgunned and Underpaid”

— The President and the first lady will travel to Rome for the first leg of Biden’s European trip.

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 8:30 a.m.: “Addressing China’s Influence in South Asia — with ASANGA ABEYAGOONASEKERA, RASHEEDA MOHAMED DIDI, PRAMOD JAISWAL, DEEP PAL, M. MASRUR REAZ”

— The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: “Coffee and Conversation with JOHN D. COHEN — with LARRY HANAUER”

— The Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: “Transparency in the Arms Trade: Examining the Role and Efforts of the Arms Trade Treaty — with VERITY COYLE, ROBBERT GABRIËLSE, SARAH PARKER, RAINER SCHMIEDCHEN, CARINA SOLMIRANO and RACHEL STOHL”

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with CARRIE RICCI, JOHN SHERMAN and ASHISH VAZIRANI”

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: “ Strengthening and Diversifying America’s Cyber Workforce — with WALLY ADEYEMO, MARIANO-FLORENTINO ‘TINO’ CUELLAR, RAHUL PRABHAKAR, PENNY PRITZKER and KIERSTEN TODT”

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: U.S. Engagement in the Western Balkans — with GABRIEL ESCOBAR”

— The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: “Fragile Peace: One Year Anniversary of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh — with PAUL GOBLE, ROBERT E. HAMILTON, IULIA JOJA and MAMUKA TSERETELI”

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Social Media Platforms and the Amplification of Domestic Extremism and Other Harmful Content — with MARY ANNE FRANKS, KAREN KORNBLUH, CATHY O'NEIL, NATHANIEL PERSILY and DAVID SIFRY”

— The Heritage Foundation, 10:30 a.m.: “Can Market Bridges Speed to New Naval Fleet Capabilities? — with WILLIAM ROPER and BRENT SADLER”

— The Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: “Deepening Economic Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific — with STEPHEN EZELL, RUPERT HAMMOND-CHAMBERS, ALEXA LEE, SYARU SHIRLEY LIN and MIYEON OH”

— House Armed Services Committee, 11 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Depot Modernization and Optimization — with DARLENE COSTELLO, STEVEN J. MORANI, KAREN SAUNDERS and FREDERICK J. STEFANY”

— The Atlantic Council, 11:30 a.m.: “Digital Design in Defense — with BARBARA BARRETT, STEVEN GRUNDMAN and WESLEY D. KREMER”

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11:30 a.m.: “ Responding to African Priorities in U.S.-Africa Relations: Insights from Afrobarometer — with TRAVIS ADKINS, JOSEPH ASUNKA, KEN OPALO, LAHRA SMITH and ZAINAB USMAN”

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: “ A Conversation with CHRIS INGLIS and ANNE NEUBERGER — with JAMES ANDREW LEWIS”

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “ Human Rights Promotion in a Free and Open Indo-Pacific — with MARSHALL BILLINGSLEA, MICHAEL GEORGE DESOMBRE, BONNIE GLICK, JOHN LEE and KENNETH R. WEINSTEIN”

— The Middle East Institute, 12 p.m.: “ The Forgotten Mental Health Crisis in Iran — with MARJAN KEYPOUR GREENBLATT, MOJGAN HAKIMI and SABA SALEH”

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12:15 p.m.: “Xi Jinping’s New Policy Framework — with JUDE BLANCHETTE and ANDREW POLK”

— The Heritage Foundation, 2 p.m.: “Getting Human Rights Back on Track — with PAOLO CAROZZA, PAUL COLEMAN, EMILIE KAO and BRETT D. SCHAEFER”

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4:30 p.m.: “U.S. Defense and Security Engagement in the Black Sea Region — with LAURA COOPER and RACHEL ELLEHUUS”

— New America, 6:30 p.m.: “Exploring the Cyber Citizenship Hub: A Conversation with the Resource Creators — with JOEL BREAKSTONE, MELISSA DARK, NATHAN FISK and KELLY MENDOZA”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who's always willing to negotiate.

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