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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Joseph Gedeon | With help from Connor O’Brien
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President Joe Biden speaks as he arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on March 24, 2022. | Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP Photo | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Reuters’ IDREES ALI gets it: Russian President VLADIMIR “PUTIN’s invasion of Ukraine has done something I did not think was possible: Made a NATO meeting so interesting that it's getting 24 hour coverage.” A lot happened in those 24 hours — including gatherings of the G-7 and European Council also attended by President JOE BIDEN — so let’s use this moment to recap all the major news. The extraordinary NATO summit kicked off by confirming our own DAVID M. HERSZENHORN’s scoop that the alliance’s secretary general, JENS STOLTENBERG , would be asked to stay on for another year. The widely popular Norwegian was set to leave his post in the fall to become head of the country’s central bank, but NATO members didn’t want to search for a new leader in the middle of the alliance’s greatest test in decades. He’ll now remain in charge until Sept. 30, 2023. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY addressed the closed-door session of leaders. A senior administration official didn’t dive into specifics of the speech on a background call with reporters except to say “there was not a request for a no-fly zone. There was also not a request for NATO membership in his remarks.” The official additionally disclosed that the U.S. is consulting with allies on providing Ukraine with anti-ship missiles, noting “there may be some technical challenges with making that happen.” In a statement following the summit, Biden praised the establishment for four new battlegrounds in Eastern Europe — stationed in Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary — and asserted the U.S. and its allies are “committed to identifying additional equipment, including air defense systems, to help Ukraine.” More actions came out of the G-7 and European Union sessions. The U.S, in coordination with those two bodies, announced full blocking sanctions on more than 400 individuals and entities, including 328 Duma members, the head of Sberbank and 48 large Russian state-owned defense companies (more on this in “Situation Report”). The EU and G-7 separately started an initiative to coordinate on evasive maneuvers by targets trying to avoid Western-imposed sanctions, as well as a scheme to prevent Russia from propping up its economy with international reserves. Another senior administration official said the West’s collective financial actions are sinking the Russian economy. “Russia is now looking at a contraction in its economy of 15 percent this year, according to private sector estimates. To put that into perspective, that would be three times as much as the GDP declined after Russia’s debt default in 1998. The Institute [of] International Finance estimates that the shock to Russia’s GDP this year will wipe out the past 15 years of economic gains,” the official told reporters. On its own, the U.S. said it would send further humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. More than $1 billion will go to ease the suffering of the people affected by Russia’s invasion, aimed at provisions of food, water, shelter, medical supplies and more. An additional $320 million will also go to Ukraine and its neighbors for pro-democracy and human rights efforts. The U.S. also said it was open to welcoming up to 100,000 people fleeing the violence in Ukraine, noting the vast majority of refugees are likely to want to remain in Europe. And then the leaders of NATO countries put out what is mostly a pro forma statement — except for the very targeted China section. “We call on all states, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC), to uphold the international order [and] to abstain from supporting Russia’s war effort in any way, and to refrain from any action that helps Russia circumvent sanctions,” they said. “We are concerned by recent public comments by PRC officials and call on China to cease amplifying the Kremlin’s false narratives, in particular on the war and on NATO, and to promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict.” Biden went further on the China point in a solo news conference, implying Beijing might also meet economic isolation if it helps Moscow. “China understands that its economic future is much more closely tied to the West than it is to Russia,” Biden told reporters, saying Chinese leader XI JINPING has told him directly of a desire for closer economic ties to the West. Biden also said the U.S. and its allies would respond to a chemical weapons attack by Russia in Ukraine, but the action would be proportional to the Russia strike. The president will next travel to Poland — NATO’s eastern front — which has served as a main transit point for the U.S. and its allies to send weapons to Ukraine. He follows recent visits from Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS.
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Proven X2 Technology™ powers both RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ aircraft. Pilots and maintainers can easily transition between aircraft, improving affordability over the life of the Army’s Future Vertical Lift program. Learn more. | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost around 15,800 personnel, 530 tanks, 1,597 armored combat vehicles, 280 artillery systems, 82 multiple-launch rocket systems, 108 warplanes, 124 helicopters, 1,033 vehicles, four ships and 50 drones ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Ukrainian troops damaged a Russian landing ship and two other vessels in Berdyansk (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “According to the information received, the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation has made a decision to adjust plans for further warfare on the territory of Ukraine due to the fact that the goals set before the start of the war with Ukraine were not completed within the given time frame” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Over the past two weeks, more than 20 enterprises in the Russian Federation's military-industrial complex have been forced to suspend completely or partially due to the lack of components and parts” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “The Russian military leadership is beginning to realize that the existing forces and resources are not enough to maintain temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and conduct defense actions” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Russian forces have almost certainly suffered thousands of casualties during their invasion of Ukraine. Russia is likely now looking to mobilise its reservist and conscript manpower, as well as private military companies and foreign mercenaries, to replace these considerable losses. It is unclear how these groups will integrate into the Russian ground forces in Ukraine and the impact this will have on combat effectiveness.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) Global response: United States: The U.S. announced a new round of severe sanctions against more than 400 Russian individuals and entities, including the Duma (Russian state legislature) as a whole. Targeted by the sanctions are 328 Duma members, along with 17 board members at Sovcombank and 48 state-owned defense companies. Russian elites GENNADY TIMCHENKO and Sberbank head HERMAN GREF were called out by name as the U.S. aligned sanctions with similar actions by the EU and G-7. (White House) U.K.: Britain will provide 6,000 new defensive missiles to Ukraine, consisting of anti-tank and high explosive weapons, and nearly $33 million in financial backing to Kyiv’s military (British prime minister) Canada: Canada announced sanctions on 160 members of the Russian Federation Council for facilitating the invasion. That’s increased the total to 964 Canada-sanctioned individuals connected to Putin. (Canadian prime minister) Estonia: Estonia will now spend 2.5 percent of its GDP on defense, exceeding NATO’s target for members of at least 2 percent (Estonian prime minister) Keep tabs on the weapons the world is sending to Ukraine. Headlines: — The New York Times: “ ‘A Frightening Repeat’: Ukrainian World War II Survivors Face Conflict Again” — The Guardian: “ How Russia is using tactics from the Syrian playbook in Ukraine” — The Associated Press: “Key moments in Russia’s month-old war in Ukraine” WE DON’T TALK ANYMORE: NatSec Daily read some eye-popping stories last night that showed two different sides to U.S.-Russian military relations in these tense times. First, CNN’s BARBARA STARR and JEREMY HERB wrote about a tense in-person meeting last week attended by two U.S. defense attachés in Moscow. One of them casually asked Russian Major General YEVGENY ILYIN, deputy chief of the main international cooperation directorate, about his familial ties to Ukraine. Ilyin’s “stoic demeanor suddenly became flushed and agitated," per a readout of the meeting. He discussed how he moved with his family to Donetsk, even going to school there, before adding the Ukraine situation is “tragic and I am very depressed over it." Ilyin then left the room without shaking hands. One of the attachés said: "The fire in his eyes and flustered demeanor left a chill down the spine." Second, The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON reported that Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, have tried and failed to reach their Russian counterparts since the invasion. The Russians “have so far declined to engage,” chief Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told the Post in a statement. The deconfliction channel between Moscow and Washington persists, but higher-level engagement isn’t happening right now — and that could be dangerous. “One is about tactical accident avoidance. The other about strategic engagement,” the RAND Corporation’s SAMUEL CHARAP told Hudson. “It’s always important to maintain the strategic level to communicate our interests clearly and better understand theirs. When there’s no communication at that level, their worst-case assumptions, often based on poor information, are more likely to drive their behavior.” POLISH FM: HOW TO BEAT RUSSIA: Polish Foreign Minister ZBIGNIEW RAU penned a six-point plan for POLITICO on how the West can defeat Russia: — “Ukraine should be provided with all the weapons it needs to fight back against the Russian aggressor” — ”The United States’ allies throughout the world must increase their investments in deterrence and defence” — “NATO should immediately boost its forward military presence on its Eastern flank in Europe” — ”The sanctions [on Russia] should not be lifted until Russia withdraws from all territory within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, recommits to the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum and pays war reparations” — More than just imposing financial costs on Russia, “[t]he international community must also hold responsible those who enabled this war of aggression and its criminals of war” — “The international community must prepare a plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine,” including with assets seized from Russian oligarchs and, over time, “integrate into Europe a Ukraine that is whole, free and — hopefully — at peace” IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | NORTH KOREA’S MAJOR ICBM TEST: North Korea lofted an intercontinental ballistic missile at full range for the first time since 2017, though the country tested segments of the weapon twice this year. Japan’s Defense Ministry said the ICBM flew for 71 minutes, going 3,728 miles high and at a distance of 671 miles — landing in waters off Japan’s western coast. That makes it the longest-range missile fired by North Korea yet, quickly receiving condemnations from the Biden administration. “This action demonstrates that the DPRK continues to prioritize its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs over the well-being of its people,” White House press secretary JEN PSAKI said in a statement, using an acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. South Korea’s military announced it test-fired five missiles — from the ground, sea and air — in response to the ICBM test, reminding the world of how high tensions remain on the peninsula. Biden held a pull-aside meeting with Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO on the sidelines of the G-7 today to discuss the launch, a White House official told reporters. There’s a bit of confusion about whether this really is the first such test in five years. The U.S. said North Korea’s Feb. 26 and March 4 tests involved an ICBM system. In other words, at least parts of a North Korean ICBM flew in the air this year — twice, in fact. But they didn’t travel anywhere close to the height or distance that Thursday’s ICBM did. That makes today’s launch the first full-blown test since 2017, even though the weapon did reach the skies earlier this year.
| | | |   | | | | | | HACKING INDICTMENTS: The U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia unsealed an indictment today against a Russian individual for allegedly attempting to hack into a U.S. energy company in 2018, our own MAGGIE MILLER reported. The indictment alleges that Russian national EVGENY VIKTOROVICH GLADKIKH and unnamed co-conspirators targeted energy facilities in an effort to cause “physical damage with potentially catastrophic effects.” The indictment was issued by a grand jury in May 2021. Today's unsealing of the indictment is the latest in a series of steps that the Biden administration has taken this week to shine a light on Russian cyber threats. The indictment alleges that Gladkikh and his co-conspirators perpetrated a 2017 attack on an oil refinery outside the U.S. that triggered an emergency shutdown of the plant, in addition to a 2018 attack on a U.S.-based energy company that was unsuccessful. The hackers used malware known as “Triton” or “Trisis” to gain control of systems that monitored operation and shutdown of the plant, among other programs. While neither victim company was named in the indictment, a Saudi Arabian petrochemical facility was compromised in 2017 by Triton malware. Gladkikh and the other conspirators were charged with conspiring to cause damage to an energy facility, to access protected computers and to damage protected computers. They are likely beyond the reach of U.S. law enforcement. CONFUSION OVER MEETING ADMIN’S CYBER DEMANDS: On Monday, Biden warned that a Russian cyberattack on American businesses and other entities could be “coming.” The next day, the administration held a call with 13,000 people on what to do about it — and there’s still some confusion and grumbling. “U.S. officials appealed for callers to lower the bar for reporting cyber threats, even down to anomalous phishing attempts. But many businesses betrayed confusion about basic cybersecurity tools and incident reporting procedures, a recording of the call shows. Other representatives said they wanted the administration to share more information,” reported Bloomberg News’ KATRINA MANSON. The call, hastily arranged by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, was attended by representatives from Barclays, Yahoo and smaller organizations. One participant, who spoke to Manson on the condition of anonymity, “said the government’s gesture was well intentioned but the information exchange was worryingly basic.” “We are hunting ghosts, which means we are on high alert but not really seeing anything,” another business official told Bloomberg.
| | | THAAD SURVEY: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report the Pentagon is surveying defense contractors to see how it can beef up the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system’s ability to deflect new types of ballistic missiles, according to a recent announcement of a market survey. DoD is looking for “possible innovative, yet practical, architectural and materiel solutions the missile defense industrial base could provide to defeat known and future threats within the terminal defense battlespace.” If it decides to proceed with an upgrade of the Lockheed Martin system, DoD would begin by conducting flight and ground tests before fielding an updated system after fiscal 2025.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | 'NOT AN ENDURING MISSION': The four-star general tasked with homeland defense told senators that support at the U.S.-Mexico border shouldn't be considered a long-term military mission, though he noted the Department of Homeland Security is seeking additional Pentagon assistance to secure the border, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. "Long-term, this is not an enduring mission of the Department of Defense. We need to fully fund and resource DHS to do their mission," Gen. GLEN VANHERCK, commander of U.S. Northern Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee at a hearing, where several senators expressed concerns about border security. Nonetheless, the yearslong deployment appears poised to continue as DHS seeks continued help. VanHerck told senators he doesn't have a tasking for the border for the coming fiscal year yet. "There is a request from the Department of Homeland Security. It's in the planning stages right now of the Department to provide additional capability or capacity based on the potential for additional immigration, folks coming to the southwest border," VanHerck testified. "I don't have the details of that right now and I haven't been tasked to provide any additional support to the Department of Homeland Security." Over 2,400 National Guard troops remain at the border providing detection, intelligence analysis and aviation support to DHS personnel, VanHerck said.
| | | DON’T ATTEND G-20 WITH PUTIN: That’s what former British Prime Minister DAVID CAMERON is trying to tell Biden through a Wall Street Journal op-ed. “What does or doesn’t happen at the G-20 won’t change the world. But it could be an important signal. Our leaders need to show that we are on a war footing. At times like this, a prime minister or president needs to reach into the machine and make sure that everything that can be done is being done,” Cameron wrote. The former premier responded to the anticipated criticism of hypocrisy: Both he and then-President BARACK OBAMA attended a G-20 gathering with Putin while Russia waged war in Ukraine and Syria. “[T]he conversations with Mr. Putin were worse than pointless. He blatantly lied to us about everything from the fate of the Malaysian airliner to the presence of Russian troops in the Donbas,” Cameron said. “In any event, what we have seen in the past month is on a new level: the full-on invasion of an independent, sovereign democracy with brutality that ranks with World War II atrocities. And we threw Russia out of the Group of Eight in 2014 because of what Mr. Putin did then.” Biden told reporters at NATO that he’d like Russia kicked out of the G-20, saying that issue was discussed today among allies. But if Russia is kept in the group, Biden would like to see Ukraine attend the session.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: X2 Technology™ delivers affordability to RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ FVL aircraft.
Because of their shared X2 Technology™, RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ will require fewer support personnel. Learn more. | | | | | | — PHILIP CUNLIFFE is joining University College London in the summer as an associate professor of international relations. He’ll leave the University of Kent after 13 years there. — AI-MEN LAU is joining the Taiwan-based disinformation and information operations nonprofit Doublethink Lab in April. She’s currently an adviser to Alliance Canada Hong Kong.
| | | — JESSICA DRUN and BONNIE GLASER, German Marshall Fund: “The Distortion of UN Resolution 2758 and Limits on Taiwan’s Access to the United Nations” — ANTONY BEEVOR, The Atlantic: “Putin Doesn’t Realize How Much Warfare Has Changed” — KAJA KALLAS, The New York Times: “I’m the Prime Minister of Estonia. Putin Can’t Think He’s Won This War.”
| | | — The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, 8:30 a.m.: “2022 Cyber 9/12 Strategy Challenge — with JANE HOLL LUTE, CHRIS INGLIS, KIERSTEN TODT and more” — Washington Post Live, 10:00 a.m.: “What is at stake for his country and how the West should respond as Russian forces advance into Ukrainian cities — with EGILS LEVITS” — The U.S. Representative Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, 11:00 a.m.: “ Iran's internal situation, Tehran's nuclear and regional defiance, its support for the invasion of Ukraine and prospects for fundamental change — with MICHAEL MUKASEY, PAULA DOBRIANSKY, ROBERT JOSEPH and more” — The Center for a New American Security, 1:00 p.m.: “ Preparedness for climate related disasters, pandemic response, and new strategic plans — with DEANNE CRISWELL and CARRIE CORDERO” — The Atlantic Council, 1:00 p.m.: “ Beyond hope as a strategy: New models for public-private collaboration — with WENDY NATHER, MORGAN ADAMSKI, MEGAN SAMFORD and more” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1:00 p.m.: “Book Launch: The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD — with HARLAN K. ULLMAN and SETH G. JONES” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.
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