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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Jonathan Lemire and Quint Forgey | | 
A man walks with his dog near an apartment building damaged by shelling from fighting on the outskirts of Mariupol, Ukraine, on Tuesday, March 29, 2022. | Alexei Alexandrov/AP Photo | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Alleged and unconfirmed claims of chemical weapons use by Russia in Ukraine has forced a scramble inside the White House to match President JOE BIDEN’s promise of an “in kind” response while avoiding further escalation of the conflict. The White House is urging caution, noting that the use of chemical weapons remains unverified. U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject, said they have been running scenario-planning exercises on the possible use of chemical weapons, having publicly raised the alarm that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN may take such a step. The officials said that military options in Ukraine aren’t on the table — echoing Biden’s repeated position of not wanting to spark World War III. The word used by multiple U.S. officials who’ve been involved in contingency planning for such an attack for at least a month is “proportional,” meaning America and its allies intend to respond in a manner befitting the potential war crime. Instead, some suggested America and its allies could impose further sanctions on Moscow, or further bolster Ukraine’s defenses with advanced weaponry. Biden aides have also speculated that the use of chemical weapons may be the final impetus for European nations to stop importing Russian energy, funds for which have fueled Putin’s war machine and filled his country’s coffers. Before doing any of that, the first step is to confirm a Ukrainian military group’s charge that Russia on Monday deployed a chemical substance in Mariupol. The Azov regiment, a frontline fighting unit that has fought Russia in the Donbas since 2014 and has been tied to neo-Nazi groups and white supremacists, said Russian troops dropped a chemical weapon from a drone and poisoned at least three people, though the group said the affected soldiers are not facing disastrous health effects. If true, that’d be the first known use of chemical weapons in the war since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. U.S. and European officials have yet to substantiate the accusation. Experts say a preliminary assessment could be made using photos or videos, if they exist, while U.S. or Western officials on the ground collect samples for more conclusive verification. Ukraine could also invite the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, a global watchdog headquartered in the Netherlands, to send a rapid-response team to the site for investigation. Officials cautioned Tuesday that such a determination may not be imminent. It may take some time to assess if chemical weapons were used, just as it did during the conflict in Syria back in 2013. “There’s no independent verification in that area, so it’s likely to be a long time,” a European official told POLITICO. There are a “host of difficulties” in verifying the claims, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Tuesday. “These are difficult things to prove even when you are more proximate, and we are not.” Additionally, U.S. officials raised questions about the credibility of the Azov regiment, noting that the far-right group might be eager to provoke a larger confrontation. They also noted that Ukrainian officials, who have been quick to accuse Russia of atrocities, have not definitively declared that illicit weapons were used. Read the entirety of Alex and Jonathan’s piece.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 19,600 personnel, 732 tanks, 1,946 armored combat vehicles, 349 artillery systems, 111 multiple-launch rocket systems, 157 warplanes, 140 helicopters, seven ships and 124 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Security work is underway in the northern regions of our country, where the occupiers were expelled. First of all, it is demining. Russian troops left behind tens if not hundreds of thousands of dangerous objects. These are shells that did not explode, mines, streamers. At least several thousand such items are disposed of daily.” (Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY) — “Russian intelligence services are planning a series of terrorist attacks with mining and undermining residential buildings, hospitals and schools in Russian settlements. And also the imposing of rocket-bomb strikes on the city of Belgorod or one of the cities of Crimea.” (Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Chief KYRYLO BUDANOV) — “In order to replenish the Armed Forces of Ukraine during martial law, from now on privates (except for conscripts) who have combat experience and have not received training at the appropriate level in universities, training units (centers) and military units, may be appointed to the position of sergeant and sergeants, for which wartime states provide a military rank to senior sergeant (chief sergeant), inclusive, with the simultaneous assignment of the primary military rank of sergeant and sergeant and with subsequent referral to training in terms determined by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.” ( Ukrainian presidential decree) — “Fighting in eastern Ukraine will intensify over the next two to three weeks as Russia continues to refocus its efforts there. Russian attacks remain focused on Ukrainian positions near Donetsk and Luhansk with further fighting around Kherson and Mykolaiv and a renewed push towards Kramatorsk. Russian forces continue to withdraw from Belarus in order to redeploy in support of operations in eastern Ukraine.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense)
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A map of Russian forces' positions in Ukraine as of April 12 is pictured. | Janes | Global Response: — Slovakia: Slovakian Defense Minister JAROSLAV NAD said his government was in talks with Ukrainian officials to send Zuzana 155 mm self-propelled howitzers. “We are also discussing the possibility of having damaged Ukrainian combat vehicles and T-72 or T-55 tanks come to our territory, and our military repair plants would repair them and send them back to Ukraine,” he said per local news site SITA. Prime Minister EDUARD HEGER also suggested that the proposal to send Ukraine MiG-29 fighter jets was back on the table. Follow POLITICO’s tracker of who’s sending what weapons to Ukraine. Headlines: — The Wall Street Journal: “ Putin Says Ukraine Peace Talks Hit ‘Dead End,’ Vows to Continue Fight” — Associated Press: “‘It’s not the end’: The children who survived Bucha’s horror” — The Washington Post: “ Hubris and isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine” FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– GOP HOUSE MEMBERS WANT KC-46A TO ISRAEL: Five Republican members of Congress wrote to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN urging the transfer of the KC-46A aerial refueling tanker to Israel “expeditiously.” “If Israel was forced to respond to a threat, it’s [sic] attack aircraft will face a significant tradeoff between carrying more fuel to extend operations or larger payloads to accomplish mission objectives. Delivering more and larger payloads will require Israel’s aircraft to refuel in-air,” the lawmakers wrote, fearing Iran’s nuclear advances could prompt an Israeli military response. “It is abundantly clear that Israel needs to upgrade its air to air refueling capabilities in order to effectively deter Iran. Israel needs tankers that are more reliable with longer ranges, better defenses, and updated battlespace technologies.” The House members — Reps. AUGUST PFLUGER (R-Texas), DON BACON (R-Neb.), SCOTT FRANKLIN (R-Fla.), BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) and MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) — worry that the earliest the U.S. will send Israel the planes is 2024, even though eight of them and other supplies were authorized for transfer back in March 2020. They suggest that the Biden administration is holding on to the planes so as not to anger Iran ahead of a potential return to the Iran nuclear deal. “It appears that the Biden administration is delaying the transfer of critical aerial refueling tankers to Israel in a political effort to placate Tehran during their dangerous Iran nuclear deal negotiations,” Pfluger told NatSec Daily. “The United States should not be putting the Ayatollah over our allies in Israel. The White House must reverse course and expedite this transfer as soon as possible.” MICHAEL MAKOVSKY , president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, wrote to NatSec Daily in support of the letter. "Enhancing Israel’s capabilities to prevent a nuclear Iran enhances American diplomatic leverage with Iran and might need to be utilized to fulfill a longstanding U.S. policy to prevent a nuclear Iran,” he said. PUTIN: ‘NO CHOICE’ BUT TO INVADE: Even for Putin, this is pretty rich: While calling events in Ukraine a “tragedy,” the Russian president said he had “no choice” but to invade the neighboring country. “What is happening in Ukraine is a tragedy, no doubt about that. But we had no choice. It was just a matter of time” before Ukrainians attacked Russia, Putin told reporters today after meeting with Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO in Russia’s far east. Putin was also bullish about Russia’s economy in the face of Western financial pressure. “The sanctions ‘blitzkrieg’ against Russia failed, the country’s industry and financial system are working, but of course there are some problems,” Putin said. “It’s clear that the Russian economy is stable. But in the medium and long term, the risks may increase. Our adversaries are planning to double down on their activities.” It’s unclear if Putin really believes his own dur nesusvetnaya or if he’s just playing tough for the cameras. Either way, the message is clear: He’s not backing down. STINGERS, STUNG: There’s a problem with the missile keeping the Russian air force at bay in Ukraine: There aren’t enough of them, and worse — production lines are shut down, our own LEE HUDSON reported. The Pentagon and Congress are uncertain about the best way to replenish decades-old anti-air missiles used in the Ukraine crisis and officials and legislators are drawing up plans for the next steps. Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS is meeting with the CEO of Raytheon Technologies today to discuss how the industrial base can refill weapon stocks for equipment sent to Ukraine, while Congress is mulling how upcoming legislation can support Ukraine and different options for U.S. investment in next-gen shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. Hicks also plans to host a classified meeting with other defense industry CEOs on Wednesday about how the Pentagon can better support companies in producing resupply, she said Tuesday at a Defense Writers Group event. The Pentagon is attacking weapon stock replenishment, similar to how the department supported the defense industry during the global pandemic. This is another case where during a crisis, the DoD and industry can identify supply chain problems and develop a plan to solve them, Hicks said. “That helps us in the long term,” she added. U.S. CONSULAR STAFF ORDERED OUT OF SHANGHAI: The State Department has ordered U.S. consular staff out of Shanghai due to its massive Covid-19 lockdown. The move, which is a step up from the voluntary departure order, is for “non-emergency U.S. government employees and their family members from U.S. Consulate General Shanghai.” “Our change in posture reflects our assessment that it is best for our employees and their families to be reduced in number and our operations to be scaled down as we deal with the changing circumstances on the ground,” State said in a statement. The city of 26 million, one of the largest and busiest in the world, has come to a standstill after the government ordered a lockdown to contain a new outbreak. That’s led to scenes of people rationing vegetables and other sustenance as food shortages impact the city.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Zeroed in on affordability.
The F-35 team is working together across government and industry for greater affordability. Lockheed Martin invested $400 million, driving a 44 percent reduction in our share of cost per flight hour. Another 40 percent reduction is forecasted. Learn more. | | | IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | ‘FORCED TO LEAVE EVERYTHING BEHIND’: Nearly two-thirds of Ukraine’s children have had to flee their homes since Russia’s invasion began, UNICEF announced Monday, while the global body has also confirmed the death of 142 kids. MANUEL FONTAINE, UNICEF’s emergency programs director, who just returned from Ukraine, said the pace that 4.8 million of Ukraine’s 7.5 million children have been displaced is the fastest he’s seen in 31 years of humanitarian work, per The Associated Press’ EDITH LEDERER. “They have been forced to leave everything behind — their homes, their schools and, often, their family members,” Fontaine told the U.N. Security Council. “I have heard stories of the desperate steps parents are taking to get their children to safety, and children saddened that they are unable to get back to school.” Meanwhile, about half of the more than 3 million Ukrainian children still in their homes may not have enough food to sustain themselves, Fontaine continued. RUSSIANS ACCUSED OF RAPE AS WAR WEAPON: KATERYNA CHEREPAKHA, president of the humanitarian rights group La Strada-Ukraine, told the United Nations that the organization received calls accusing Russian troops of rape, including nine cases involving 12 women and girls. "This is just the tip of the iceberg," Cherepakha told the U.N. Security Council via video on Monday. "We know and see — and we want you to hear our voices — that violence and rape is used now as a weapon of war by Russian invaders in Ukraine." The global body is seeking to confirm these allegations, including others that Ukrainian forces have also committed sexual violence during the conflict.
| | | U.S. MILITARY ENTERS THE METAVERSE: Imagine Air Force staffers meeting counterparts from around the world at a digital table, enabled by the Oculus headset instead of Zoom or — gasp — the phone. You don’t have to imagine it — the Air Force held such a meeting in December, Breaking Defense’s ANDREW EVERSDEN reported. The metaverse fad has clearly permeated different parts of the Defense Department’s ecosystem. “An Army one-star gave a detailed answer on the history of the term metaverse at a conference in December. Contractors boast about augmented and virtual reality technologies that will bring the metaverse to the military. Military simulated training investments are characterized as metaverse research. And that Air Force office dubbed its virtual reality meeting as an early foray into the metaverse — accompanied by NFTs,” Eversden wrote. “While there are varying levels of enthusiasm, there is a growing agreement that as long as the military enters the virtual world with clear (if augmented) eyes, it could greatly benefit American warfighters in ways ranging from immersive combat planning to hyper-realistic virtual training to truly experiencing weapons systems in ways that have never before been possible.” The question is if different thinking on the utility of the metaverse for the military will cause a … rift. (We’re not sorry.) UKRAINE STOP RUSSIAN CYBERATTACK: Ukrainian officials on Tuesday announced the nation had stopped an attempted Russian cyberattack on its energy sector last week aimed at disrupting the power supply for millions of Ukrainians, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The attack was among the largest cyber incidents tied to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine earlier this year and demonstrated the Russian government’s willingness to use cyberattacks as part of its strategy. But it also showed that Ukraine's efforts to strengthen cybersecurity are bearing fruit. The attack, in which the hackers used a more sophisticated version of malware used to disrupt power in portions of Ukraine in 2016, would have taken effect on April 8, and the electrical substation targeted was first compromised some time prior to the end of February. VICTOR ZHORA, the deputy director of Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection, said during a press briefing Tuesday through a translator that had the attack been successful, millions of Ukrainians could have temporarily lost power. Zhora noted the attack was timed to take place as Ukrainians were coming home from work, but declined to give specifics on which stations were targeted.
| | | |   | | | | | | SIKHS SUE MARINE CORPS: Capt. SUKHBIR SINGH TOOR and three other Sikhs have sued the Marine Corps in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia over the service’s refusal to allow them to openly practice their religion while in uniform, including through wearing a beard, reports The New York Times’ DAVE PHILIPPS. “Current law requires that the military not restrict individual exercise of religion except when a ‘compelling government interest’ is at stake, and in those cases, to use the ‘least restrictive means’ possible,” Philipps explains. “What counts as a compelling government interest, or as the least restrictive means, is at the center of the case.” Marine leaders have previously cited two interests it said were compelling when restricting Sikh turbans and beards: the importance of uniform appearance in the ranks, and the hindrance beards might pose to Marines’ physical ability to do their duties by keeping them from safely wearing gas masks. But the Sikhs counter that the Marine Corps “routinely deploys men to combat zones who have permission to wear beards because of medical conditions or because they are part of Special Operations units,” Philipps writes. “And the corps’s beard rules would require the Sikhs to shave even in countries where the risk of chemical attack is so low that Marines deployed there are not equipped with gas masks.” DRONE HUNTER BID WON: Bollinger Shipyards on Friday won a contract worth up to $122 million to build the Navy’s new remotely operated mine hunter, beating out Textron and another unidentified company, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported. The drone vessel designed to detect and destroy undersea mines is set to replace the MCM-1 class ships and MH-53E helicopters. But it was also supposed to operate alongside the Freedom-class littoral combat ships, which the Navy proposed decommissioning in its latest budget request. The initial contract is for three vessels with the option for up to 27 more.
| | | REPUBLICANS URGE MORE INTEL-SHARING WITH UKRAINE: Republican members of the Senate Intelligence Committee are demanding that Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES ramp up Washington’s intelligence-sharing with Kyiv and “ensure that Ukrainian forces have the resources to counter Putin’s military.” “We remain deeply concerned that not enough is being done to share critical intelligence that would assist the Ukrainians as Russian forces move to secure territory in the southern and eastern parts of the country,” the committee’s Republicans, led by Vice Chair MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), wrote in a letter. “[W]e urge you to ensure that our intelligence agencies proactively share intelligence with the Ukrainians to help them protect, defend, and retake every inch of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, which includes Crimea and the Donbas,” the lawmakers wrote.
| | | OBAMA CALLS PUTIN ‘RECKLESS’: Former President BARACK OBAMA says Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is evidence that the Russian leader has grown increasingly “reckless” in the years since they last squared off on the world stage, Quint reported. “Putin has always been ruthless against his own people, as well as others,” Obama told NBC News’ AL ROKER in an interview. “He has always been somebody who’s wrapped up in this twisted, distorted sense of grievance and ethnic nationalism. That part of Putin, I think, has always been there.” But “what we’ve seen with the invasion of Ukraine is him being reckless in a way that you might not have anticipated eight, 10 years ago,” Obama continued, adding: “The danger was always there.” The former president also was pressed on whether, with hindsight, he would have responded differently to Putin’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. “The situations in each of these circumstances are different,” Obama said. “But I think that what we’re seeing consistently is a reminder of why it’s so important for us to not take our own democracy for granted, why it’s so important for us to stand for and ally ourselves with those who believe in freedom and independence. And I think that the current administration is doing what it needs to be doing.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Zeroed in on affordability.
Lockheed Martin ingenuity is fully invested in reducing acquisition and life cycle costs to affordably deliver unrivaled capability. Learn more. | | | | | | — REBECCA HERSMAN has started work as director of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency at the Defense Department. She previously served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for countering weapons of mass destruction. — USHA SAHAY has started work as a speechwriter in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. She previously was a senior editor at POLITICO Magazine. — SABRINA SINGH has started work in the public affairs office of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, focusing on integrated campaigns. She previously served as deputy press secretary to Vice President KAMALA HARRIS.
| | | — HASAN ALI, The Nation: “The Tragedy of Imran Khan” — BARBARA MARCOLINI, SANJAR SOHAIL and ALEXANDER STOCKTON, The New York Times: “Opinion: The Taliban Promised Them Amnesty. Then They Executed Them.” — STEPHANIA TALADRID, The New Yorker: “Aging and Abandoned in Venezuela’s Failing State”
| | | — The Association of the U.S. Army, 8 a.m.: “2022 AUSA Hot Topic Series: Army Installation Partnerships for Mission Assurance — with ROBERT BROWN, JASON EVANS, PAUL FARNAN, DAN KLIPPSTEIN, LEON PANETTA and more” — The National Defense Industrial Association, 9 a.m.: “Spring 2022 Integrated Program Management Division Meeting — with JEAN CHRISTIAN BRUTUS, THOMAS CARNEY, BRIDGET LAUDERDALE, RUSS RODEWALD, JAE YU and more” — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: “ The State of Afghanistan’s Economy and Private Sector — with WILLIAM BYRD, ANDREA MARIO DALL'OLIO, JEFFREY GRIECO, TOBIAS HAQUE and NAHEED SARABI” — The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: “System Shock: Russia’s War and Global Food, Energy, and Mineral Supply Chains — with SHARON BURKE, JONATHAN ELKIND, BRAM GOVAERTS, EMILY KING and LAUREN HERZER RISI” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: “A Conversation with Dr. STACEY DIXON, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence — with NINA EASTON and SUZANNE SPAULDING” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1:30 p.m.: “Carnegie Connects: Russia, Ukraine, and Great Power Conflict — with ROBERT GATES and AARON DAVID MILLER” — The National Defense Industrial Association, 6 p.m.: “Dwight D. Eisenhower Award Dinner — with JOHN HYTEN”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Jonathan Yearwood, who wishes he spent more time in the metaverse instead of editing this rag. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
