Why Biden didn’t go to Ukraine

By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

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Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attend their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine. | Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP

Sunday featured dramatic images of Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President VOLODYMR ZELENSKYY, the latest sign of America’s commitment to help the Eastern European country fend off Russia’s two-month-long invasion.

They made a bit of news during their visit, which we’ll dive into deeply in the next section. But first, we wanted to use this time to answer a question readers have asked us versions of ever since Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE reported a top Cabinet official was headed to Ukraine: Why didn’t President JOE BIDEN go?

The simple answer, per White House officials and Democratic lawmakers we’ve spoken to, is there were immense security concerns . Yes, two Cabinet officials have their own robust protection teams and, yes, other world leaders have made the trip. (Who could forget British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON walking through Kyiv’s streets three weeks ago?)

But we’re told U.S. officials assessed that sending Biden or Vice President KAMALA HARRIS would be too big a lift for the Ukrainians — who need to focus on fighting the Russians — and that the potential security problems were too great. (It probably didn’t help inspire confidence that Zelenskyy spilled the beans on Austin and Blinken’s secret trip while they were en route.)

But, as Quint reported this morning , Austin and Blinken safely traveled to and from Kyiv by train and crossed into Poland shortly before Russian missiles struck several railway lines — including one in the city of Lviv in western Ukraine, near the Polish border.

On Saturday, Zelenskyy said during a news conference that “we will wait for the security situation to improve for the U.S. president to come and support the Ukrainian people.” Administration officials insist that Biden has no plans to go to Ukraine, namely because it’s an active warzone in which the U.S. has little to no control over the circumstances.

Still, Republicans wish Biden had strutted around the Ukrainian capital as his British counterpart did. “It would have been great to see the leader of the free world do the same and show boldness. There’s too much hand-wringing in this administration when it comes to Russia,” said Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a House Armed Services Committee member.

A House Democrat, who asked for anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject, emphasized that “other world leaders require much less security than the president of the United States.”

While sending two top Cabinet members to Ukraine is already a massive undertaking, NatSec Daily asked why national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN didn’t make the trip. He doesn’t require as much security and would’ve been a strong representative of the White House. What we heard is the administration held multiple meetings on who would be best to go to Ukraine. In the end, the president determined that sending his top foreign affairs and defense aides made the most sense.

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SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism.

War in Ukraine: 

— Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 21,900 personnel; 884 tanks; 2,258 armored combat vehicles; 411 artillery systems; 149 multiple-launch rocket systems; 181 warplanes; 154 helicopters; eight ships; and 201 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “Russian enemy is conducting offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to defeat the Joint Forces, establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and secure a land route between these territories and the occupied Crimea.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “In the city of Mariupol, Russian enemy launched missile and bomb strikes on the positions of Ukrainian troops on the territory of the Azovstal plant. Russian enemy conducts assault operations on the village of Popasna.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “Russia has made minor advances in some areas since shifting its focus to fully occupying the Donbas. Without sufficient logistical and combat support enablers in place, Russia has yet to achieve a significant breakthrough. Russia’s decision to besiege rather than attack Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant means many Russian units remain fixed in the city and cannot be redeployed. Ukraine’s defence of Mariupol has also exhausted many Russian units and reduced their combat effectiveness. Russia’s Ministry of Defence has proposed compensation payments for the families of deceased service personnel be overseen by military rather than civilian officials. This likely reflects a desire to hide the true scale of Russia’s losses from the domestic population.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense)

Global Response:

— Poland: Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI  confirmed his government sent tanks to Ukraine, but didn't disclose the amount. That revelation after the U.K. said it had sent tanks to backfill what Poland would lose, allowing Warsaw to send Soviet-era T-72s to Kyiv

Headlines:

— The New York Times: “ Seeking Arms for Ukraine, Pentagon Buyers Scour Eastern European Factories”

— The Wall Street Journal: “Russian Military’s Next Front Line: Replacing Battlefield Equipment Destroyed in Ukraine”

— The Washington Post: “ Coming Weeks ‘Critical’ in Battle for Southeast Ukraine, Milley Says”

AUSTIN AND BLINKEN BREAK NEWS IN KYIV: Austin and Blinken came prepared with four deliverables when they met Zelesnskyy in Kyiv for secretive talks on Sunday night, Quint reports.

First, Blinken said Biden plans to nominate BRIDGET BRINK, currently the U.S. ambassador to Slovakia, to serve as the next U.S. ambassador to Ukraine . The post has remained unfilled since then-President Donald Trump fired MARIE YOVANOVITCH, although Brink has long been considered a top contender — as NatSec Daily readers already know.

At least one Republican has already shown support for the nomination, making her path to confirmation easier.

“Was a privilege to meet with Ambassador Brink while visiting Slovakia earlier this month. First serving under Trump & now Biden as @USEmbassySK, she’s an effective diplomat & an excellent choice to lead the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine,” Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) tweeted Monday morning after the announcement was made.

Second, Blinken said U.S. diplomats will be returning to Ukraine this week — returning first to Lviv before beginning the process of reopening the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. The Biden administration closed the Kyiv embassy in February and has been under pressure to reopen it in recent weeks. More than a dozen European countries, as well as the European Union, already have partially reopened their Kyiv missions or intend to do so.

Third, Blinken said the U.S. plans to obligate more than $713 million in foreign military financing for Ukraine, as well as for 15 other allies and partner nations in Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans. The U.S. also approved a $165 million sale of ammunition for Ukraine.

The new aid includes more than $322 million earmarked for Kyiv — bringing the total amount of U.S. security assistance for Ukraine to roughly $3.7 billion since the start of the invasion.

Fourth, Austin said the Defense Department plans to expand military training for Ukrainian forces on certain weapons systems. On Tuesday, he’s scheduled to host several of his global counterparts for a “Ukraine Defense Consultative Group” at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where the defense ministers are expected to discuss Ukraine’s outstanding security needs.

U.S. WANTS ‘WEAKENED’ RUSSIA: Austin said the quiet part out loud: The U.S. isn’t just trying to force Russia out of Ukraine, it’s trying to decimate Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s regime.

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” the Pentagon chief told reporters on Monday. “So it has already lost a lot of military capability, and a lot of its troops, quite frankly. And we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability. We want to see the international community more united, especially NATO, and we’re seeing that.”

NatSec Daily has heard consistent rumblings that the Biden team's true goal against Putin's regime is to decimate it economically, diplomatically and militarily. “Regime change is not our policy. But if you’re talking about his ability to project power around the world, then yes, absolutely. That is the goal,” a senior administration official said.

And it echoes what other administration officials have said in the past, though never as blunt as Austin’s comments.

“We have also said for months that we intend to make this invasion a strategic failure for Russia. One of our goals has been to limit Russia’s ability to do something like this again, as Secretary Austin said,” a National Security Council spokesperson told us. “That’s why we are arming the Ukrainians with weapons and equipment to defend themselves from Russian attacks, and it's why we are using sanctions and export controls that are directly targeted at Russia’s defense industry to undercut Russia’s economic and military power to threaten and attack its neighbors.”

MACRON WON, BUT LE PEN STRONG: French President EMMANUEL MACRON won a tense run-off against far-right candidate MARINE LE PEN , winning a second term and seemingly a fresh mandate for more pro-Europe politics. But the challenger’s strong showing — her best ever — “spells trouble for [Macron’s] second term and sends a warning shot to NATO and the European Union,” POLITICO Europe’s CLEA CALCUTT reported.

Despite winning 58.5 percent to 41.5 percent, “the president’s victory is clouded by the fact that his rival — an anti-immigration, nationalist candidate who advocates banning the Islamic headscarf in public, has courted Russian President Vladimir Putin and wants to turn the European Union into an ‘alliance of European nations’ — won more votes than any far-right candidate in the history of the French Republic.”

That could weigh on Macron while he governs over the next five years, as more than 12 million people voted for a candidate who wants to form an alliance with Moscow and would pull out of NATO’s integrated command.

“It’s going to be a rocky ride,” a top official at Macron’s La République en Marche party told POLITICO ahead of Sunday’s vote.

WEST SENDS HEAVY WEAPONS: The U.S. and its Western allies are flooding Ukraine with heavy weapons, departing from weeks of mainly sending Javelins and small-arms to the nation under siege.

“Over the past two weeks, the Biden administration began shipping out $1.2 billion worth of howitzers, around 200,000 artillery rounds, armored vehicles, counter-battery radars and experimental new armed drones capable of flying into targets,” our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER and PAUL McLEARY reported. “On Friday, France and Canada unveiled new plans to send long-range artillery systems for the first time, and the U.K. is looking to backfill heavy armor to Poland as Warsaw contemplates sending Polish tanks to Ukraine.”

“The rapid shift in aid reflects the recognition that the new fight will likely be dominated by artillery barrages and tank battles as infantry units square off over the flat fields of eastern Ukraine,” they continued.

Eighty miles north of the city, First Lt. IVAN SKURATOVSKY, serving in the 25th Airborne Brigade, told POLITICO that help needs to come immediately.

“The situation is very bad, [Russian forces] are using scorched- earth tactics,” the 31-year-old married father of two said via text. “They simply destroy everything with artillery, shelling day and night.”

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‘HIGH POSSIBILITY’ OF PUTIN INVADING MOLDOVA: U.S. and Ukrainian officials are taking a hard look at the possibility that Putin might expand his invasion of Ukraine into the neighboring nation of Moldova, another former Soviet republic and non-NATO member in Eastern Europe, Quint reports.

The new focus on the small, landlocked state comes after a Russian commander said last Friday that Moscow plans to take full control over southern Ukraine, which he said “is another way to Transdniestria” — a pro-Russia breakaway region of Moldova.

“I think where they go from here remains to be seen,” deputy national security adviser JON FINER said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” in reference to Russian forces. “But they are a long way from cities like Odesa” — the Black Sea port in southern Ukraine — “and certainly from Moldova.”

Pressed on how the Biden administration’s wartime strategy would change if Russia began making moves toward Moldova, Finer said the U.S. has “shown an ability to be nimble” and “to adjust our assistance and our approach as the Russian war aims have evolved.”

IGOR ZHOVKVA, deputy head of the Zelenskyy’s office, also told NBC that Russian forces “can move anywhere they want,” but that Ukrainian forces “will not let them” enter Moldova. Still, he warned that such an invasion “could be a high possibility.”

KYIV-TOKYO TWITTER TENSIONS: The official Twitter account of Ukraine issued an apology Sunday after it posted a video that included an image of Japan’s wartime Emperor Hirohito alongside images of Germany’s Adolf Hitler and Italy’s Benito Mussolini.

The video offered an explanatory takedown of so-called ruscism — a term that’s been used by Ukrainians to describe Russia’s creep toward fascism and Putin’s contorted worldview.

But Ukrainian Ambassador to Japan SERGIY KORSUNSKY criticized the clip, tweeting that Hirohito “had nothing to do with the outbreak of war and fascist ideology.” Japanese lawmaker MASAHISA SATO also tweeted that he had urged the European Affairs Bureau of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs “to take immediate action” on the video.

Ukraine’s Twitter account later “corrected” the video and posted a new version of it online. “Our sincere apologies to @japan for this mistake. We had no intention to offend the friendly people of Japan,” the account tweeted.

ISRAEL ISSUES CYBER WARNING: Israel’s cyber directorate issued its annual warning ahead of expected cyberattacks on or around April 29, when Iran commemorates “Jerusalem Day.”

Per the Times of Israel’s RICKY BEN-DAVID and other colleagues, “[i]n previous years, the day was marked by website breaches that spread anti-Israel or pro-Palestinian messaging, cyberattacks on companies that host and maintain a large number of websites to maximize the impact of the breach, as well as attempted hacks into organizations’ systems and information leaks, the directorate said Sunday.”

“In 2020, various affected websites displayed a video simulating Israeli cities being bombed and messages threatening the destruction of the Jewish state,” they continued.

Anti-Israel hackers will likely coordinate their activities with the #OPJerusalem hashtag and will do so at a time when clashes at a holy site in Jerusalem and weeks of terrorist attacks throughout Israel have seen tensions spike in the region.

EUROPE BEEFS UP: Major weapons deals are being cut across Europe as the continent bulks up in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!).

Last week, Lithuanian officials met with German companies Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall to discuss buying as many as 120 Boxer armored infantry vehicles, some armed with 30mm cannons, the Defence Ministry announced.

Germany is also considering buying 60 CH-47 Chinook helicopters from Boeing for $5.4 billion, Reuters reported on Saturday . But also reportedly in the running is Lockheed Martin's CH-53K King Stallion.

The money will come from the additional $100 billion the German government recently pledged in military spending.

And more Baltic acquisitions are likely on the way. Estonia and Latvia recently approved plans to increase defense spending from about 2 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP and say they are in the market for air and coastal defense capabilities.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SENATORS PUSH DoD ON CIVILIAN HARM: A group of seven left-leaning senators wrote to Austin Friday demanding the Pentagon improve its civilian harm practices.

In the letter led by Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, the lawmakers recommend eight ways for the Defense Department to do that. Among the suggestions: hire staff and data experts at high levels devoted solely to civilian harm mitigation policies; standardize a civilian harm reporting process; undertake more thorough internal investigations into instances of U.S.-caused civilian harm; and further incorporate best practices and lessons learned into operation planning.

The lawmakers — who also include Sens. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.), PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.), DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.), JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.), BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) and CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) — hope Austin abides by their recommendations.

“Successive administrations have failed to meaningfully address the civilian harm caused by U.S. military operations and we are eager to see DoD and the rest of the Biden Administration take steps to rectify these failures,” they wrote.

This letter mirrors one from nearly 50 House Democrats sent to Austin in March. They also had the same eight recommendations for the secretary — indicating congressional Democrats might be eyeing a dual-chamber approach to codify some of these changes if the Pentagon doesn’t act. Further, we’re told Warren plans to prioritize mitigating civilian casualties in this year’s National Defense Authorization Act.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

UKRAINIANS PAN U.N. CHIEF’S PUTIN MEETING: Top Ukrainian officials are expressing disapproval of United Nations Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES’ planned meeting in Moscow with Putin, set to take place Tuesday, Quint reports.

Zhovkva, the deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Guterres is “not really” authorized to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian government in efforts to negotiate a peace deal amid Russia’s invasion.

“This is not good idea to travel to Moscow. We did not understand his intention to travel to Moscow and to talk to President Putin,” Zhovkva said, adding: “I really doubt if those peace talks organized by secretary-general of the U.N. would end up with any result.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister DENYS SHMYHAL said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that many world leaders have “tried to have this negotiation” with Moscow, “but it seems that the Russian Federation and Putin are not interested.”

The Russians “are interested in other things,” Shmyhal said. “They are interested in genocide of Ukrainians. They are interested in creation of migration crisis in Europe and in the world. They are interested in creation of food crisis, energy crises. … I’m not sure they are capable to hold these negotiations in proper way.”

— ADAM KOZLOSKI has joined Sen. JONI ERNST’s (R-Iowa) office as a foreign policy aide. He was previously a legislative correspondent on national security for Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas).

— ANNE APPLEBAUM, The Atlantic: “Ukraine and the Words That Lead to Mass Murder”

— ELIZA GRISWOLD, The New Yorker: “The Ordinary Americans Resettling Migrants Fleeing War”

— ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH, POLITICO Europe: “Tested by War, Ukraine’s Jews Keep Faith in Their Country”

— The Potomac Officers Club, 7 a.m.: “Third Annual CIO Summit — with MARK ANDRESS, MARIANNE BAILEY, DEWAINE BEARD, MICHAEL BERGER, JAMES BISHOP and more”

— The American Enterprise Institute, 9 a.m.: “All Eyes on Lithuania: A Conversation with Lithuanian Minister of Finance GINTARĖ SKAISTĖ — with ELISABETH BRAW”

— The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 9 a.m.: “2022 TechNet Cyber Conference — with JOHN R. ANTILL, WILLIAM ‘BILL’ J. BALKO, HOLLY C. BAXTER, SUSAN LAWRENCE, ROBERT J. SKINNER and more”

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: The Health of the Defense Industrial Base — with DAVID J. BERTEAU and ELLEN M. LORD”

— The Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: “Still Fit for Purpose? The U.N. in the Aftermath of Russia’s Invasion in Ukraine — with RICHARD GOWAN, KEITH M. HARPER, ANDREW HYDE, CARRIE MCDOUGALL and MICHAL MLYNÁR”

— Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2023 Funding Request and Budget Justification for the Missile Defense Agency — with JON A. HILL”

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Review of the FY 2023 State Department Budget Request — with ANTONY BLINKEN”

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Mistreatment of Military Families in Privatized Housing — with SAMUEL CHOE, RACHEL CHRISTIAN, PAULA COOK, RICHARD C. TAYLOR, JACK FE TORRES and JANA WANNER”

— New America, 12 p.m.: “The Bin Laden Papers: How the Abbottabad Raid Revealed the Truth About al-Qaeda — with PETER BERGEN and NELLY LAHOUD”

— House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Examining Plans for the Continuation of the Department of Veterans Affairs Electronic Health Record Modernization Program — with TERRY ADIRIM, DAVID CASE, DON PIRRAGLIA, LAURA PRIETULA, PATRICK SARGENT, MELISSA SOLITO and AVI VASWANI”  

— The Wilson Center, 2 p.m.: “Lessons from the Edge: Conversation with the former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine MARIE YOVANOVITCH — with MICHAEL KIMMAGE, WILLIAM E. POMERANZ and GRACE KENNAN WARNECKE”

— Senate Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters”

— The Atlantic Council, 4 p.m.: “ Transatlanticism in a Time of Crisis: The View From Prague — with DANIEL FRIED and JAN LIPAVSKÝ”

— The Center for Global Development, 5 p.m.: “A Conversation with RAILA ODINGA, Former Prime Minister of Kenya — with W. GYUDE MOORE”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, whose large security detail explains why he can’t visit warzones or his in-laws.

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