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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks from Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 11, 2022. | Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP | President JOE BIDEN confirmed Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE’s Wednesday scoop that the U.S. might send a top-level official to Kyiv, telling reporters Thursday "we're making that decision now." Such a visit would be hard to pull off. While there were security concerns about sending past officials to Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. at least had a strong footprint in those countries, including military bases where it was relatively safe to land. No such infrastructure exists in Ukraine — the U.S. Embassy is closed and America has little to no ability to dictate events on the ground. So how to get a Cabinet-level American official safely into Ukraine for a visit with President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY? NatSec Daily contacted former officials familiar with such trips, but all declined to speak on the record because they didn’t want to divulge trade secrets or complicate the possible sojourn. One person, though, agreed to speak in generalities on background — giving us a sneak peak into the planning that’s likely going on right now. The first thing that will happen is the operations lead and head of security for the Cabinet member will speak with U.S. officials in Ukraine. They’ll get a sense of the best ways in and out of the country and develop a game plan along with a timeline of events once the official is in Kyiv. Tough decisions have to be made at this point. What kind of aircraft will the official fly on, and will it be U.S. military or commercial? What are the communications needs inside the aircraft? What kind of countermeasures should the aircraft have, just in case? Do you land in Ukraine, or in a nearby country like Poland? If you do that, does the principal then head to Kyiv in a helicopter or, less likely, do you drive there? Furthermore, a decision needs to be made about whether to tell the Russians about the trip. The benefit of doing so is that Moscow won’t be surprised and overreact when they see a Western plane suddenly fly near — or into — Ukrainian airspace. The downside is that the Kremlin would have the information they need to attack the transport vehicle if they wanted. It’s unlikely, but administration officials are surely speaking with experts on Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s state of mind within the government. “Is Putin in a position to take a crack at a top U.S. official? That’s a long afternoon meeting on risk,” the former official told us. The visiting Cabinet member’s agency will also sneakily send an advance team to speak with their Ukrainian counterparts. Those meetings could happen in Kyiv itself — giving the team a chance to check out multiple sites — or even at a Ukrainian embassy in a nearby country. Again, they can compare notes on best practices getting in and out of Ukraine during a time of war. Also, say the plan is to fly the official and their team into Kyiv’s airport. Do you leave the aircraft on the runway, thereby exposing it to potential attack by a Russian missile? Or do you fly it into nearby NATO territory for safekeeping, and then return once the principal and entourage are ready for the long ride home? All these things and more are surely being worked out for a visit that will only take a few hours. Meanwhile, the administration will notify news organizations about the details of the trip, giving them ample time to develop a coverage plan and identify the reporter who will travel in the press pool. They will be told no one can tweet or write on movements until the official is safely in Kyiv. That means we’re unlikely to hear about the trip until it’s already underway — if it happens at all. “Any potential visit — and again, I'm not previewing one — but any potential visit, you’d have to have security concerns. And we certainly wouldn't do it if we couldn't meet those concerns,” Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said Thursday on CNN. OLEKSIY ARESTOVYCH, an adviser to Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, also told CNN such a visit would have “symbolic” and “practical” merits, adding Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN would “probably” be the one to make the trip since the top issue at the moment is the delivery of U.S.-provided weapons to Ukraine.
| | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 19,900 personnel, 753 tanks, 1,968 armored combat vehicles, 366 artillery systems, 122 multiple-launch rocket systems, 160 warplanes, 144 helicopters, seven ships and 134 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — It will take about four weeks in total to close out the delivery of all $800 million in new security assistance to Ukraine. (U.S. Department of Defense) — “The Russian occupiers continue to launch systematic missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “It was established that the Russian command set a task to mobilize 60-70 thousand people on the territory of the so-called "DPR". However, these figures were met by only 20 percent.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “President Putin’s speech on Tuesday highlighted his continued interest in the Donbas where Russia is striking Ukrainian forces in preparation for a renewed offensive. Urban centres have faced repeated indiscriminate attacks from Russia throughout the conflict. The towns of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka are likely to be Russian targets for similar levels of violence. The combination of widespread missile and artillery strikes and efforts to concentrate forces for an offensive represents a reversion to traditional Russian military doctrine.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — EU: The European Union is drafting a Russian oil embargo, which would be one of the biggest collective steps to punish Russia. It’s likely the ban would include a phase-in process to give Germany time to find alternative suppliers for its energy needs. Nothing is likely to be finalized until after France’s presidential election. — France: France's Foreign Ministry announced it will relocate its embassy from Lviv back to Kyiv. Headlines: — New Lines Magazine: “ In a Kyiv Suburb, Wanton Destruction Amid the Stench of Death” — The Wall Street Journal: “The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training” — The Washington Post: “ A Brit fighting in Ukraine said his unit would surrender. He’s now missing.” UKE SUNK MY BATTLESHIP?: Kirby, the DoD spokesperson, on Thursday said the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet was still afloat and “operating under her own power” after an explosion aboard the vessel — which Ukraine said was the result of a missile strike and Russia said was caused by an internal fire detonating ammunition, Quint reports. Kirby was unable to verify either country’s claim about the Soviet-era guided-missile cruiser Moskva, which he said is one of three cruisers in the Russian fleet and was operating roughly 60 miles south of Odesa — a Black Sea port city in southern Ukraine — at the time of the blast. “We know she suffered an explosion,” Kirby said in an interview on MSNBC . “It looks like — from the images that we have been able to look at — it looks like it was a pretty sizable explosion, too. We don’t know what caused that explosion.” National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN today told a crowd at The Economic Club in Washington, D.C. that U.S. officials were in touch overnight with their Ukrainian counterparts who say they struck the ship, but also noted the administration couldn’t independently confirm the claim. Still, he said, “it’s a big blow to Russia.” The warship is now heading further east, he added, and U.S. officials assess it will likely dock at Sevastopol — a Black Sea port city in Crimea, the disputed peninsula south of Ukraine that Russia seized and annexed in 2014. JEFFREY EDMONDS , who served as Russia director on former President BARACK OBAMA’s National Security Council, mentioned to NatSec Daily that Russia has only two other Slava-class guided-missile cruisers: the modernized Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag. NO ‘SITTING ON THE FENCE’: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN had some tough words for countries not joining in the West’s anti-Russia campaign: You’re making a mistake. “[L]et me now say a few words to those countries who are currently sitting on the fence, perhaps seeing an opportunity to gain by preserving their relationship with Russia and backfilling the void left by others. Such motivations are short-sighted,” she told a Wednesday crowd at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, D.C. “The future of our international order, both for peaceful security and economic prosperity, is at stake. And this is an order that benefits us all. And let’s be clear, the unified coalition of sanctioning countries will not be indifferent to actions that undermine the sanctions we’ve put in place.” Sullivan was pressed on this point today during his event, when the host specifically asked if he was disappointed countries like Israel and India haven’t followed along. Support for America’s Ukraine policies and sanctions isn’t a “strict on-off switch,” Sullivan said. “This is an ongoing process, a work in progress.” “We’re not trying to beat other countries over the head that have been more reluctant to get on board. What we’re trying to do is move steadily towards a greater consensus both around what Russia has done here and around what the right ways to respond to it are,” he continued. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
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Warfighters need unmatched technology solutions to own the fight and maintain mission advantage. Lockheed Martin is leveraging digital transformation to increase speed and effectiveness and stay ahead of rapidly evolving global threats. Learn more. | | | | | | RUSSIA’S NEW NUCLEAR THREAT: Let’s be clear: Any time the U.S. and its allies do anything, Russia is likely to respond with “we have nuclear weapons.” So we’re shocked — SHOCKED! — that in response to Sweden and Finland signaling that they might join NATO, a top Putin confidante suggested Russia should move nuclear weapons into the Baltics. “There can be no more talk of any nuclear-free status for the Baltic — the balance must be restored,” DMITRY MEDVEDEV , previously Russia’s puppet president (when Putin was prime minister and calling the shots) and now deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, wrote on Telegram. If Moscow followed through on this threat, it could mean moving nuclear-missile ships closer to the region or even placing bombs in Kaliningrad, the Russian outpost sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. In recent years, Russia has upgraded a nuclear-storage site in Kaliningrad. HANS KRISTENSEN of the Federation of American Scientists told NatSec Daily that the latest images show Russia is still working on the security perimeter of the facility, so he doubts it’s operational.
| | | ‘FULL SYSTEM ACCESS’: Four federal agencies released a bulletin warning that unnamed advanced persistent threat actors, or APTs, could gain “full system access” to multiple industrial control systems. The notice from the National Security Agency, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security, Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Energy didn’t say who was behind the threat. But private researchers suggest Russia is the culprit and has its sights set on America’s energy infrastructure. “One of the cybersecurity firms involved, Mandiant, said in a report that the tools’ functionality was ‘consistent with the malware used in Russia’s prior physical attacks’ though it acknowledged that the evidence linking it to Moscow is ‘largely circumstantial,’” the Associated Press reported. U.S. officials have long warned of Russian efforts to hack into America’s energy sector and sounded the alarms ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some believe Moscow is planning a retaliatory cyberattack on the U.S. for orchestrating the West’s punitive response.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | THE DOOR, IT REVOLVES: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note the Hypersonic Ground Test Center, which is affiliated with Purdue University, has hired two lobbyists from Cornerstone Government Affairs to advocate for hypersonic technology, according to a new disclosure. The lobbyists are JOHN BOHANAN, a former aide to House Majority Leader STENY HOYER, and KARYN RICHMAN, a former OMB and House Appropriations Committee staffer. Congress boosted funding for laboratory and testing infrastructure by $800 million in the fiscal 2022 budget to ramp up the development of hypersonic and directed-energy weapons. And in February, defense CEOs urged the Pentagon to provide more funding and access to testing facilities for hypersonic weapons.
| | | RUSSIA SANCTIONED 398 LAWMAKERS: Russia announced Wednesday that it has sanctioned 398 House members in retaliation for an American measure imposed last month. On March 24, the U.S. sanctioned 328 Duma members among more than 400 individuals and entities. Russia specifically cited this action when announcing its move. "These individuals, including the leadership and committee chairmen of the lower house of the U.S. Congress are placed on the Russian stop list on a permanent basis," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement,” adding “all members of the U.S. Congress have been blacklisted on the basis of reciprocity.” This decision follows Russia’s previous sanctions on lawmakers, including Speaker of the House NANCY PELOSI. Some of the newly barred members of Congress, though, don’t seem to mind. “Moscow is cold this time of year anyway,” Rep. MONDAIRE JONES (D-N.Y.) tweeted.
| | | |   | | | | | | ‘DOWN WITH FRANCE’: Multiple African nations are seeking a reset of their relationship with former colonial power France, The New York Times’ RUTH MACLEAN reported. “In Senegal, young people attending protests last year accused the president of being a puppet of the French president, EMMANUEL MACRON. ... They smashed the windows of French gas stations and set fire to French supermarkets,” she wrote. “In Burkina Faso, as a coup d’état unfolded in January, tailors tore up French flags and pieced the tricolors back together horizontally to make Russian ones. In Niger last November, after protesters shouting ‘Down with France!’ tried to block a French military convoy, the soldiers opened fire. They killed two people, the Nigerien government said.” What changed? “There’s a new awakening in sub-Saharan Africa that the world should know about,” said EL HADJ DJITTEYE, a Malian analyst and founder of the Timbuktu Center for Strategic Studies on the Sahel. “If a foreign minister makes a speech today, there’s a group of young analysts that can look at it and say this paragraph is paternalist, that one is aggressive, this isn’t diplomacy.” Macron pulled French troops out of Mali in February, mainly because the Malian government no longer wanted them there. That decision led commentators to speculate that Macron’s vision of European “strategic autonomy” was crumbling and could negatively affect his chances of winning this month’s presidential election.
| | | — KATHLEEN McINNIS is rejoining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as a senior fellow and director of the Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative. She recently left her job as an international security specialist at the Congressional Research Service. On Twitter, McInnis called her new post “ A true dream job.” — JIM O’BRIEN has started work as head of the new Office of Sanctions Coordination at the State Department, with the rank of ambassador. He previously was principal and vice chair of Albright Stonebridge Group and served as a special presidential envoy under two administrations.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — ELISABETH BRAW, Foreign Policy: “What Finland Can Offer NATO” — RYAN MILLS, National Review: “U.S. Embassy Staff Destroyed Passports as Taliban Took Over, Trapping American Allies in Afghanistan” — JOSHUA KEATING and TOM NAGORSKI, Grid News: “ Words matter: The implications of Biden’s charge of ‘genocide’ in Ukraine”
| | | — The George Washington University, 12 p.m.: “Spiritual Warfare: The Role of the Russian Orthodox Church in Today's Russia — with MARLENE LARUELLE” — Washington Post Live, 4 p.m.: “World Stage: Ukraine with OKSANA MARKAROVA” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who we can neither confirm nor deny will shortly represent the U.S. in Kyiv. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Leveraging digital transformation to get Integrated Combat Systems capability to the fleet faster
Working with the U.S. Navy, Lockheed Martin is digitally transforming Aegis – using DevSecOps, Model Based System Engineering and Virtualization, plus third-party partnerships to meet the rapidly evolving needs of the fleet. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
