|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
The Russian missile cruiser Moskva is pictured on patrol in the Mediterranean Sea on Dec. 17, 2015. | Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The sinking of Russia’s ‘Moskva’ cruiser is a big symbolic win for Ukraine, but does very little to change the course of the war. Experts NatSec Daily spoke to since the Kremlin confirmed the news say the Slava-class ship had minimal land-attack capability and was fitted with dated systems. Its main utility was gunning Ukrainian lands like Snake Island — a replaceable capability — and protecting nearby Russian ships with its air defenses. The sinking helps explain why other Russian vessels stationed near Ukraine moved further from shore. The Moskva, then, was never crucial to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ’s war plans, even if it was the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship. The loss is “pretty embarrassing but otherwise not that significant,” said MICHAEL KOFMAN, an expert on Russia’s military at the CNA think tank in Arlington, Va. But we should think about the Moskva’s demise the same way actor HELEN MIRREN views QUEEN ELIZABETH II’s role in Britain: “ Never underestimate the value of a symbol.” Ukrainian forces sinking the Black Sea flagship with two Neptune missiles, as a senior U.S. defense official told NatSec Daily today, punctures the narrative of a strong Russian force that will eventually win the war it started last month. It’ll also boost the morale of Ukrainian troops and citizens who, despite fiercely resisting Russian advances, have endured horror after horror. “A symbolic victory does matter,” said retired U.S. Navy Capt. STEVEN HORRELL, a former naval intelligence officer now at the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank in Washington, D.C. It further lets officials in Kyiv know that if Russia’s best air-defense ship is that vulnerable to a few missiles and drones, then its entire naval force is also assailable, Horrell added. The most immediate effect, it seems, is that Russia intends to retaliate fiercely for the indignity. "The number and scale of missile strikes on targets in Kyiv will increase in response to any terrorist attacks or acts of sabotage on Russian territory committed by the Kyiv nationalist regime," Russia's Maj. Gen. IGOR KONASHENKOV said in a Friday statement. The Kremlin said it struck a missile factory in Kyiv, and that it had captured the Ilyich steel works plant in the besieged southeastern city of Mariupol. Moscow added that its villages in the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine had been hit by Ukrainian shelling. Meanwhile, Ukraine said it had repelled Russian offensives in the towns of Popasna and Rubizhne, north of Mariupol.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 20,000 personnel, 756 tanks, 1,976 armored combat vehicles, 366 artillery systems, 122 multiple-launch rocket systems, 163 warplanes, 144 helicopters, eight ships and 135 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia “continues to launch missile and bomb strikes on the infrastructure of settlements in Ukraine. In the Volyn and Polissya directions, separate units of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus perform tasks to cover the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in the Brest and Gomel regions.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “The situation in the Siversky and Slobozhansky directions is unchanged. In the South Buh area, the enemy is trying to carry out fortification equipment positions, replenish stocks of weapons and military equipment, ammunition and fuel and oil. It conducts reconnaissance with the involvement of unmanned aerial vehicles.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, the Russian enemy’s main efforts were focused on attempts to capture the settlements of Popasna and Rubizhne. It is not successful. Thus, in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, eight enemy attacks were repulsed in the past 24 hours, four tanks, six armoured personnel carriers, four infantry fighting vehicles, and one enemy artillery system were destroyed.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Russia has admitted that the Slava-class cruiser Moskva has sunk. As flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva served a key role as both a command vessel and air defence node. The Soviet-era vessel was one of only three Slava-class cruisers in the Russian navy. Originally commissioned in 1979, the Moskva had completed an extensive refit designed to improve its capability and only returned to operational status in 2021. This incident means Russia has now suffered damage to two key naval assets since invading Ukraine, the first being Russia’s Alligator-class landing ship Saratov on 24 March. Both events will likely lead Russia to review its maritime posture in the Black Sea.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense) Headlines: — Bloomberg: “ Ukrainians Come Home to Wreckage, Booby Traps and Fresh Laundry” — Reuters: “Ukrainians hang on at Mariupol steel plant” — The Wall Street Journal: “Kyiv Rocked by Explosions as Russia Steps Up Attacks” WHAT UKRAINE WANTS: Former acting Defense Secretary CHRIS MILLER, President DONALD TRUMP’s last Pentagon boss, just returned from a 30-hour trip to Ukraine — and told NatSec Daily about what Ukrainian officials related to him. They made clear that they want five types of equipment from the West: long-range rocket systems, air-defense systems that can hit high-altitude aircraft, combat aviation, tanks and fighter jets. From his conversation with five Ukrainian military, defense and intelligence officials, Miller took away that Kyiv is transitioning from an insurgency-type survival plan to one focused on a long-term conventional fight. “They’re like, ‘We don’t need any more Javelins, we don’t need any Stingers. What we need is heavier equipment,’” Miller told us. They also asked Miller and BRANDON WHEELER, executive director of the Freedom Research Foundation, which planned the trip, to help the American public not forget the Ukrainian cause as the war drags out for months or even years. He also traveled around outside of Kyiv, where Miller encountered areas under curfew and with no power. “It was like World War II,” he said. Miller also made a stop in Warsaw to speak with Polish officials. His takeaway from those conversations is how seriously Poland fears it will be attacked by Russia along with the Baltic countries. At one point a senior Polish official spoke about continuity of operations should Poland get hit with a nuclear weapon. The sense Miller got from the Poles was “this is really, really serious.” “If Ukraine falls, we're next,” was the main Polish sentiment Miller heard. RUSSIA WANTS U.S. TO STOP ARMING UKRAINE: Russia sent a formal note to the U.S. saying that America and its allies’ shipments of weapons to Ukraine must end — now. “What the Russians are telling us privately is precisely what we’ve been telling the world publicly — that the massive amount of assistance that we’ve been providing our Ukrainian partners is proving extraordinarily effective,” a senior administration official told The Washington Post’s KAREN DeYOUNG. There’s no sign that the Biden administration or governments in Europe will stop providing support to Ukrainian forces, especially as a new phase in the war is set to begin in Ukraine’s east. For weeks, Russia has threatened to attack the convoys of weapons coming in from Poland and Romania once they enter Ukrainian territory. That has yet to happen, but U.S. officials NatSec Daily has spoken with say there remains a small — but not zero — chance that that could happen. ZELENSKYY WARNS RUSSIANS MAY STILL RETURN TO KYIV: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY cautioned Western nations and his fellow Ukrainians to contain their optimism about the state of the war effort — warning in a new interview with The Atlantic’s ANNE APPLEBAUM and JEFFREY GOLDBERG that if Russian forces are not pushed out of the country’s east, “they can return to the center of Ukraine and even to Kyiv.” “It is possible. Now is not yet the time of victory,” Zelenskyy said, and Ukrainians “have a very small window of opportunity.” The former comedian also vented some of his frustrations during frequent talks with foreign governments: “When some leaders ask me what weapons I need, I need a moment to calm myself, because I already told them the week before. It’s Groundhog Day. I feel like Bill Murray.” One of Zelenskyy’s advisers also provided a list of what Kyiv says it still needs to repel the invasion from the east: “Artillery, 155 millimeters,” “Artillery shells, 152 millimeters as many as possible,” “Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (‘Grad’, ‘Smerch’, ‘Tornado’ or M142 HIMARS),” “Armored vehicles (armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, others),” “Tanks (T-72 tanks or similar tanks from the USA or Germany),” “Air defense systems (S-300, ‘BUK’ or western equivalents),” and “Military aircraft—MUST HAVE—to deblock our cities and save millions of Ukrainians as well as millions of Europeans).” Meanwhile, Zelenskyy told CNN’s JAKE TAPPER that the world should prepare itself for the possibility that Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine. "Not only me — all of the world, all of the countries have to be worried because it can be not real information, but it can be truth," he said. CIA Director BILL BURNS noted the potential of Putin making such a decision during a Thursday speech at Georgia Tech, saying “none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low yield nuclear weapons." And per The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON and JEFF STEIN, Zelenskyy recently told President JOE BIDEN on a phone call that he should designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. Biden didn’t commit to anything but did say he was open to a range of options. 900 BODIES FOUND NEAR KYIV: More than 900 bodies have been found in an area near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, leading local police to surmise they were “simply executed” as Russians withdrew, The Associated Press’ ADAM SHRECK, ROBERT BURNS and YESICA FISCH reported. That number is about twice as many as Ukrainian authorities announced two weeks ago. “ANDRIY NEBYTOV, the head of Kyiv’s regional police force, said the bodies were abandoned in the streets or given temporary burials. He cited police data indicating that 95% died from gunshot wounds,” the AP reported. Ukrainian officials continue to find more bodies in the rubble Russia left behind, with around 350 found in Bucha.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | MORE VIOLENCE IN ISRAEL: Medics said more than 150 Palestinians were wounded Friday after a clash with Israeli police at the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, per The Associated Press’ JOSEPH KRAUSS. The incident at Al-Aqsa — which is sacred to both Jews and Muslims — is the most recent display of violence in Israel during the holy month of Ramadan, which this year coincides with Passover and the Christian holy week that culminates in Easter Sunday. A similar clash at the mosque last year was partly responsible for sparking an 11-day war with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. The latest skirmish comes after Palestine’s Health Ministry said Wednesday that Israeli forces shot and killed three Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, including a teenage boy. The ministry then said Thursday that Israeli forces killed two more Palestinians. At least 24 Palestinians have been killed amid the wave of violence, according to a count by the AP. CHINA CONDUCTS DRILLS IN TAIWAN AMID U.S. CODEL: The People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command said in a statement Friday that it sent frigates, bombers and fighter planes to the East China Sea and the area around Taiwan as a U.S. congressional delegation visited the island nation, per Reuters’ BEN BLANCHARD and YEW LUN TIAN. “This operation is in response to the recent frequent release of wrong signals by the United States on the Taiwan issue,” the Chinese military said. China’s Ministry of National Defense also described the U.S. visit as “deliberately provocative” and claimed it had “led to further escalation of tension in the Taiwan Strait.” The bipartisan group of six U.S. lawmakers — including Sens. RICHARD BURR (R-N.C.), LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) and BEN SASSE (R-Neb.), as well as Rep. RONNY JACKSON (R-Texas) — arrived in the capital of Taipei on Thursday. In a Friday statement, Sasse said the Chinese Communist Party “can’t bully the American people or their representatives in the United States Congress."
| | | SCANNING DEAD RUSSIANS: In a macabre story, The Washington Post’s DREW HARWELL reports on how Ukrainian forces are scanning the faces of dead Russians to identify them and then notify their family members. “Ukrainian officials have run more than 8,600 facial recognition searches on dead or captured Russian soldiers in the 50 days since Moscow’s invasion began,” Harwell wrote. “The country’s IT Army, a volunteer force of hackers and activists that takes its direction from the Ukrainian government, says it has used those identifications to inform the families of the deaths of 582 Russians, including by sending them photos of the abandoned corpses.” STEPHANIE HARE , a surveillance researcher in London, told the Post about her concerns with this use of the Clearview AI technology. “If it were Russian soldiers doing this with Ukrainian mothers, we might say, ‘Oh, my God, that’s barbaric’ ... And is it actually working? Or is it making them say: ‘Look at these lawless, cruel Ukrainians, doing this to our boys?’” The U.S. company, per its president HOAN TON-THAT, said that they reached out to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense after the Kremlin claimed that captured Russian troops were actors.
| | | |   | | | | | | $1B SALE TO NIGERIA: The State Department authorized a nearly $1 billion military sale to Nigeria featuring 12 AH-1Z attack helicopters and 2,000 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System guidance sections. The package also includes $25 million for human rights-focused training. The deal was delayed by lawmakers due to Nigerian President MUHAMMADU BUHARI’s turn toward authoritarianism, especially after his crackdown on the viral #EndSARS protests. But Nigeria has genuine terrorism concerns that also worry the U.S. — thus the authorization. “The proposed sale will better equip Nigeria to contribute to shared security objectives, promote regional stability and build interoperability with the U.S. and other Western partners. This sale will be a major contribution to U.S. and Nigerian security goals,” the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement.
| | | LAWMAKERS WANT UKRAINE ASSISTANCE COORDINATOR: Four Senators — two Democrats and two Republicans — wrote to Biden asking him to appoint someone to improve the transfer of weapons and other assistance to Ukraine. “The Ukraine Security Assistance Coordinator’s primary mission would be to lead the interagency effort in assessing Ukraine’s defense needs while de-conflicting overlapping areas of jurisdiction between the Department of State and the Department of Defense,” Sens. ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio), JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and RICHARD DURBIN (D-Ill.) wrote. “This person would also serve as the chief liaison between the United States Government and our allies and partners abroad in matters relating to the transfer of existing stocks and assessment of partner capabilities, such as aircraft, heavy tanks, and sophisticated weapons that could be made available to Ukraine.” The U.S. has now sent more than $3 billion in assistance since Biden became president, with the vast majority of that support coming after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. The latest $800 million tranche will take about four weeks to deliver, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Thursday. The lawmakers hope a point person for such deliveries might shorten that and future timelines.
| | | WARREN WANTS KUSHNER PROBE: In a new interview with “Pod Save America,” Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) says the U.S. government should look into JARED KUSHNER securing a $2 billion investment from a fund led by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN. “I think there’s a question that the Department of Justice should take a really hard look to see” if accepting the investment breaks any criminal laws, she told host TOMMY VIETOR in an episode that airs Monday . “I’d want to take a hard look at that,” adding “this is a moment when Congress needs to do a lot more about corruption.” The son-in-law and top Trump aide had a famously cozy relationship with the man the CIA alleged orchestrated the murder of dissident JAMAL KHASHOGGI, even texting each other on WhatsApp. Their bromance helped Saudi Arabia weather a downturn in U.S.-Saudi relations following that murder, ties the Biden administration aims to downgrade and House Democrats want to sever. “Ethics experts say that such a deal creates the appearance of potential payback for Mr. Kushner’s actions in the White House — or of a bid for future favor if Mr. Trump seeks and wins another presidential term in 2024,” The New York Times’ DAVID KIRKPATRICK and KATE KELLY reported this week.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | — MATTHEW THOMPSON started as the Marine Corps liaison officer at U.S. Strategic Command.
| | | — ERICA D. LONERGAN, Foreign Affairs: “The Cyber-Escalation Fallacy” — ABDI LATIF DAHIR, The New York Times: “ Tanzania’s First Female President Wants to Bring Her Nation in From the Cold” — MICHAEL SCHAFFER, POLITICO Magazine: “Inside the Campaign Against ‘Putin’s Pope’”
| | | — U.S. envoy for North Korea heads to Seoul: U.S. Special Representative for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea SUNG KIM will travel to the South Korean capital from April 18-22. He will meet with Republic of Korea Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs NOH KYU-DUK and other senior South Korean officials. Deputy Special Representative for the DPRK JUNG PAK will accompany him. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 9 a.m.: “Aerospace Nation: Understanding AFRL’s WARTECH — with CHRISTOPHER J. RISTICH” — The Johns Hopkins University, 11 a.m.: “ Political Struggles of Kurds: Regional, National and Subnational Dynamics — with LISEL HINTZ” — The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: “A Discussion of ‘Navalny’: The Documentary — with MARIA PEVCHIKH, IZABELLA TABAROVSKY and LEONID VOLKOV” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “What to Expect from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework — with LOTTA DANIELSSON, JOHN LEE and RILEY WALTERS” — The Brookings Institution, 3:30 p.m.: “What Comes After the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report? — with AMAR BHATTACHARYA, MAX BOYKOFF, DANA R. FISHER, ELAINE KAMARCK, SARAH KAPLAN and BARRY G. RABE”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who hasn’t removed us from this newsletter even though it’d be a symbolic victory for him. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
