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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Burned vehicles are seen at the destroyed part of the Illich Iron & Steel Works Metallurgical Plant in Mariupol, Ukraine, Monday, April 18, 2022. | Burned vehicles are seen at the destroyed part of the Illich Iron & Steel Works Metallurgical Plant. | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint As Russia starts Phase 2 of its war on Ukraine, a European official provided a comprehensive briefing to reporters about the Kremlin’s goals and the current state of the battlefield. We found it helpful, so what follows are our main takeaways from the session the official’s government insisted remain on background. Russia’s four objectives: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ’s forces in Ukraine’s south and east are looking to 1) capture all of the Donbas; 2) build a land bridge from the Donbas to Crimea via Mariupol; 3) control Kherson, which is crucial to securing freshwater canals to Crimea; and 4) seize additional territory to use as a buffer zone and/or use them as bargaining chips in a future negotiation with Ukraine. ‘Complete destruction’ of Mariupol: Russia wants the takeover of Mariupol by May 9 — Victory Day in Russia — to sell as a big win for Putin’s campaign. Russia will continue to use artillery and long-range bombings while pushing out civilians to achieve that goal. “We do expect the complete destruction of the city and many civilian casualties,” the official said. “My fear is that it is going to be worse than Bucha,” the Kyiv suburb where Russian troops allegedly committed war crimes by killing civilians on their way out and throwing dead bodies in mass graves. Ukraine will employ similar tactics: Don’t expect a major change in the way Ukraine has fought this war: The official said the resistance will pair mobile, agile forces with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to generate Russian attrition. They will further “harass” Putin’s forces to prevent further territorial gains. Foreign fighters: Russia has deployed between 10,000 and 20,000 foreign fighters from Syria and Libya into the Donbas region in addition to Wagner Group mercenaries. All of them will fight as infantry, the official said, as they don’t operate heavy weapons. Lack of airpower: Russia has yet to achieve air superiority in the Donbas, so Moscow’s troops can’t expect to have permanent close-air support once they meet stiff Ukrainian resistance. “This is really important,” the official asserted. Logistical problems? Russia’s new commander for Ukraine, Gen. ALEXANDER DVORNIKOV , is fully aware he must vastly improve his military’s handling of logistics and communications — a point of weakness in the first phase of the war. But the official said a newfound focus on that issue doesn’t negate the fact that Russia is heavily dependent on railroads for resupply and other needs. “The train network has been targeted many times by the resistance,” the official said, and expects such operations to continue. That could complicate Dvornikov’s goal of establishing reliable logistics lines. Low morale vs. high morale: The morale of Russian forces remains low despite the new phase, the official said, because troops “don't like the idea of killing people who speak Russian.” Meanwhile, Ukrainian morale is “very high, in particular after the destruction of the Russian Navy cruiser.” How the war might end: The official expects we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge. This will lead Putin to conclude he’s protected the regional Russian population in the summer. By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations in hopes of finding a diplomatic solution by winter.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 20,800 personnel; 802 tanks; 2,063 armored combat vehicles; 386 artillery systems; 132 multiple-launch rocket systems; 169 warplanes; 150 helicopters; eight ships; and 158 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “In the east and south of our country, the occupiers are recently trying to attack in a little more thought-out manner than before. They are putting pressure, looking for a weak spot in the defense of our state to go there with the main forces.” (Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY) — “The occupiers are again shelling residential areas of Kharkiv, in particular Kyiv and Industrial districts. The Russians use rocket-propelled grenade launchers from a distance of 35-40 km. As of now in Kharkiv, unfortunately, 16 wounded, 3 people died, the information is still being clarified. Dergachiv and Chuhuiv districts were also shelled.” (Governor of Kharkiv Oblast OLEG SYNEGUBOV) — Russian forces are “trying to continue offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as well as to maintain a land corridor with the temporarily occupied Crimea.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “The main efforts of the enemy are focused on breaking through the defence of Ukrainian troops in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, as well as establishing full control over the city of Mariupol. In the Zaporozhzhia oblast, the concentration of units of the Russian occupying forces continues in certain areas.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia is at 75 percent of its original pre-staged combat power in Ukraine. ( U.S. Department of Defense) — “Russian commanders will be concerned by the time it is taking to subdue Mariupol. Concerted Ukrainian resistance has severely tested Russian forces and diverted men and materiel, slowing Russia’s advance elsewhere. The effort to capture Mariupol has come at significant cost to its residents. Large areas of infrastructure have been destroyed whilst the population has suffered significant casualties. The targeting of populated areas within Mariupol aligns with Russia’s approach to Chechnya in 1999 and Syria in 2016. This is despite the 24 February 2022 claims of Russia’s Defence Ministry that Russia would neither strike cities nor threaten the Ukrainian population.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — Lithuania: Parliament voted to ban public displays of the letter “Z”, the ribbon of St. George and other symbols viewed as signs of support for Russia’s invasion. — Poland: Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI said the country’s health service is prepared to treat at least 10,000 injured Ukrainian soldiers. —U.K.: The British government is sending armored Stormer anti-aircraft vehicles to Ukraine. Headlines: — Reuters: “ Ukrainian volunteers recount three weeks in Russian captivity, allege beatings” — The Washington Post: “As the war moves east, Russia and Ukraine still facing off in Kherson” — The Wall Street Journal: “ Ukraine Rushes to Evacuate Civilians in East as Russia’s Offensive Pushes Forward” RUSSIA’S DEFMIN DESCRIBES METHODICAL DONBAS ASSAULT: Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported that Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU said Moscow’s “plan to liberate the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics is being methodically carried out,” per Reuters. Shoigu’s remarks Tuesday, reportedly made at a meeting of defense officials, referred to the two Moscow-backed breakaway areas in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. He went on to accuse the U.S. and other Western nations of “doing everything to drag out” Russia’s so-called special military operation “as much as possible.” "The increasing volume of foreign arms supplies clearly demonstrates their intentions to provoke the Kyiv regime to fight to the last Ukrainian standing,” Shoigu said. He added of Russia’s new offensive in the Donbas: “The actions of our forces and the quality of the weaponry being used demonstrate once again that the priority set by our military and political leadership of building up the Russian armed forces is correct.” UKRAINE WANTS $50 BILLION FOR WAR-RELATED BUDGET GAP: OLEG USTENKO, a top economic adviser to Zelenskyy, said a delegation of Ukrainian officials — including Finance Minister SERHIY MARCHENKO — will appeal for a $50 billion aid package in Washington this week, when they speak with officials from the U.S. and other Group of Seven nations on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings, per our own KATE DAVIDSON. Ustenko said the funds would help Ukraine offset a budget shortfall that is projected to reach $8 billion per month for at least the next six months, as the Russian invasion batters Ukraine’s economy. By comparison, officials projected before the war that the government’s deficit would total about $7 billion for the entire year, or roughly 3.5 percent of its gross domestic product. Without the ability to raise cash from private markets, Ustenko said Ukraine could soon be forced to dramatically shrink expenditures, including paychecks to soldiers and aid payments to its citizens. “It’s next to impossible,” he said, calling the $50 billion “crucial for keeping our lives going.” LAVROV WAVES OFF NUCLEAR WARNINGS: Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV suggested Tuesday in an interview with India Today’s GEETA MOHAN that Russia would not deploy tactical nuclear weapons during its invasion of Ukraine. The remarks from Moscow’s top diplomat come after Zelenskyy told CNN on Friday that “all of the countries of the world” should be prepared for the possibility that Putin could use nukes in the conflict. CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS, speaking at the Georgia Institute of Technology on Thursday, also said that “none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons.” Asked about Zelenskyy’s comments Tuesday, Lavrov replied that Zelenskyy “says many things. It depends on what he drinks or what he smokes.” Pressed further, Lavrov said: “Ask Mr. Zelenskyy. We never mentioned about this. He mentioned this, so his intelligence must have provided him with some news. I cannot comment [on] something which a not very adequate person pronounces.” Lavrov also referenced the “special responsibility for peace on this planet” that Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev shared when they signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987. “This statement, both the Russian-American statement and the P5 summit statement [were] issued on the strong insistence of the Russian Federation,” he said. PRISONERS OF WAR RETURNED IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE SWAP: Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister IRYNA VERESHCHUK said today that Russia handed over 76 people in the fifth exchange of prisoners of war with Ukraine, per Reuters. That total included 60 soldiers — 10 of whom are Ukrainian officers — and 16 civilians. In a separate statement, Vereshchuk said there are currently “no humanitarian corridors” for the evacuation of Ukrainian civilians as “intensive shelling in Donbas continues.” Officials in Mariupol relayed that Russian forces “refuse to provide a corridor … in the direction of Berdyansk,” a port city in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast of southeast Ukraine. “We continue difficult negotiations on the opening of humanitarian corridors in Kherson region and Kharkiv region,” Vereshchuk said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Essential to allied airpower.
The growing community of F-35 nations strengthen our national defense and deter our enemies. The F-35 is diplomacy in action, fueling shared global deterrence through interoperability and collaboration. Learn more | | | IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | EXPLOSIONS HIT AFGHAN SCHOOLS: Bombs targeting schools in Kabul killed six people — including students — and injured 17 others, The Associated Press’ MOHAMMAD SHOAIB AMIN reported. “The blasts, which occurred in rapid succession, were being investigated and more casualties were feared, according to Kabul police spokesman KHALID ZADRAN and the city’s Emergency Hospital. Several of the wounded were in serious condition and some had been treated and released. The explosions occurred inside the Abdul Rahim Shaheed High School and near the Mumtaz Education Center several kilometers … away, both in the predominately Shiite Muslim neighborhood of Dasht-e-Barchi. There were no immediate reports of casualties at the Mumtaz Center,” Amin wrote. A suicide bomber is suspected, though it’s unclear to which group the person belongs. The Taliban recently went back on its promise to educate girls. ISIS often targeted Shiite communities in Afghanistan via suicide bombs. ISRAEL RETALIATES AGAINST GAZA: Israel dropped bombs on Gaza early this morning in response to a rocket fired from the Palestinian territory. The tit-for-tat threatens to escalate tensions after days of clashes over a holy site in Jerusalem. “Israel’s military said it targeted a Hamas weapons-manufacturing site in Gaza, hours after it intercepted the rocket near the Gaza border with its Iron Dome aerial-defense system, which set off warning sirens in southern Israel late Monday. There weren’t any immediate reports of injuries on either side,” The Wall Street Journal’s DOV LIEBER reported. Trading rockets last year led to a brutal and deadly 11-day war between Israel and Hamas-led Gaza. Tensions are already high in Israel as a series of terrorist attacks have killed 14 people since March.
| | | PEGASUS USED TO SPY ON CATALANS: At least 65 Catalan politicians and activists were spied on with Pegasus and Candiru programs, the University of Toronto revealed in a Monday analysis. POLITICO’s SARAH ANNE AARUP reports that “[t]hose targeted included PERE ARAGONÈS, president of the Catalan Government, along with European Parliament members, Catalan legislators, jurists, activists and their family members.” Tensions have been high between Madrid, the capital of the federal Spanish government, and Barcelona, seat of the mostly autonomous Catalonian government, since the region tried to declare independence via referendum in 2017. Key members of that effort are now in exile and scattered throughout Europe. NatSec Daily has family in Barcelona and was told by an aunt that since the news broke, “no one is talking about anything else.” Expect this story to fester in Spain and possibly reverberate throughout much of Europe.
| | | |   | | | | | | NO ANTISAT TESTS FOR U.S.: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS announced Monday that the U.S. will impose a self-moratorium on shooting down satellites following Russia’s disastrous test last November. “As of today the United States commits not to conduct destructive, direct-ascent, anti-satellite missile testing,” Harris said at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. “Simply put, these tests are dangerous and we will not conduct them. We are the first nation to make such a commitment. I call on all nations to join us.” Our own BRYAN BENDER reported that “the announcement does not include other less destructive ASAT weapons, such as ‘co-orbital’ — which use another spacecraft to interfere with a satellite in orbit — or electronic jamming and computer hacks.” REBECCAH HEINRICHS , a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, isn’t a fan of this move: “Russia does something very dangerous and highly provocative so the Biden admin >checks notes< imposes a ban on America,” she tweeted. Only the U.S., Russia, China and India have conducted destructive ASAT tests by firing missiles into space from Earth or from an aircraft at high altitude. LOCKHEED SELLING WEAPONS TO UKRAINE, LOSING CASH: Lockheed Martin is in talks with the Pentagon about sending more weapons to Ukraine, but can’t yet say how the conflict is affecting sales, our own LEE HUDSON reports (for Pros!). The company on Tuesday also reported an 8 percent decrease in sales over the same period last year due to supply chain issues brought on by the pandemic. Lockheed is being mum on its sales outlook regarding the Ukraine war because the congressional authorization cycle could take 12 months to three years depending on the program, CEO JIM TAICLET told investors during a first quarter earnings call. But Taiclet admitted that the Russian invasion has made deterrence more valuable now than it has been in 80 to 100 years. “We feel we’re really positioned well with our strategy to meet that need for national security and global security,” Taiclet said. The company also acknowledged that the Ukraine conflict prompted Germany to select the F-35 to replace its Tornado aircraft.
| | | CODEL VISITS BALKANS: A bipartisan trio is using this recess week to visit three Balkan countries to show America’s support for the region as Russia invades Ukraine. Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) will spend the next few days in Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and Belgium. Shaheen and Tillis are the co-chairs of the Senate NATO Observer Group, which they reestablished in 2018. Per a news release from Shaheen’s office, the lawmakers will meet with “members of the respective countries’ administrations, members of civil society and members of the press to address numerous issues, including support for Ukraine amid Russia’s unprovoked invasion, European security, anti-corruption efforts, safeguarding freedom of the press and much more.” “Affirming U.S. support to our partners in the Balkans is especially critical as we experience the most precarious military situation in Europe since World War II,” Shaheen said in a statement. “The Balkans is a region critical to Europe’s security, and we must continue our strong cooperation with our partners as Russia continues its illegal war against Ukraine and threatens NATO members,” Tillis added on.
| | | GROUPS CALL FOR AFGHANISTAN ASSET FREEZE REVERSAL: More than 40 left-leaning and antiwar groups sent a letter to President JOE BIDEN asking him to unfreeze $7 billion in assets belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank. Reversing the February executive order “is a critical step to reestablishing the functioning of the Afghan banking system, halting the accelerating humanitarian crisis, and ultimately reversing Afghanistan’s economic collapse — indeed, it is a necessary one,” reads the letter signed by groups like the American Friends Service Committee, Veterans for Peace, Win Without War and CODEPINK. “[T]hese resources belong to the Afghan people, and to the extent that their access may inadvertently or indirectly benefit the Taliban government, this must be weighed against the hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of Afghan civilians who will die if these assets are not returned to the central bank — all in punishment of a government that they did not choose. The starvation of millions of Afghans helps no one.” Last week the World Bank said that Afghanistan’s economic situation was dire, with the Taliban mismanaging the country’s economy and U.S.-led asset freeze complicating any recovery. “One of the poorest countries in the world has become much poorer,” said TOBIAS HAQUE, the bank’s senior country economist for Afghanistan.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Essential to allied airpower.
With the commitment of 14 nations and counting, the U.S. and its allies are powering partnerships, security, and economic growth through the F-35 program. Learn more. | | | | | | — JOEL MEYER is now serving as the deputy assistant secretary for strategic initiatives at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. He was previously the senior counselor to Homeland’s under secretary for policy. — MAX PRIMORAC has joined the Heritage Foundation as a senior research fellow for international economics and foreign aid with the organization’s Allison Center for Foreign Policy. He previously served in various roles at the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development. — JONATHAN PANIKOFF was named the next director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. From 2015 to 2020, Panikoff was the deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the National Intelligence Council. — CHRISTOPHER MILLER has joined us here at POLITICO to cover the war in Ukraine. He previously did fantastic on-the-ground reporting for Buzzfeed. Expect to see some of his dispatches here in NatSec Daily. — MAX BERGMANN has joined the Center for Strategic and International Studies as director of the Europe program. He's moving over from the Center for American Progress.
| | | — YASCHA MOUNK, The Atlantic: “How Diverse Democracies Can Protect Their Citizens” — JAN-WERNER MÜLLER, Foreign Affairs: “How Autocrats Endure” — RICHARD C. PADDOCK, The New York Times: “Myanmar’s Health System Is in Collapse, ‘Obliterated’ by the Regime”
| | | — Biden huddles with Pentagon leadership: The president will meet with Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY and the combatant commanders in the Cabinet Room of the White House. Later, the first couple will host a dinner for them and their spouses in the Blue Room. — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 8:45 a.m.: “Cyber Mission Summit — with HOLLY BAROODY, GARY BUCHANAN, VENICE GOODWINE, NANCY KREIDLER, MATTEO MARTEMUCCI and more” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “Tracking Developments in Counterspace Weapons — with TODD HARRISON, KAITLYN JOHNSON, MICHAEL MINEIRO, VICTORIA SAMSON, BRIAN WEEDEN and MAKENA YOUNG” — The National Defense Industrial Association, 9 a.m.: “Fiscal Year 2023 Department of Defense Science and Technology Budget Priorities — with KRISTEN BALDWIN, LORIN SELBY, HEIDI SHYU, JEFFREY SINGLETON and STEFANIE TOMPKINS” — The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 9 a.m.: “Sanctions, Russia’s War and the Future of Trade — with MARY E. LOVELY, CECILIA MALMSTRÖM and DENIS REDONNET” — The Center for a New American Security, 9:30 a.m.: “Following the Crypto: Using Blockchain Analysis to Assess the Strengths and Vulnerabilities of North Korean Hackers — with JASON BARTLETT, NICK CARLSEN, YAYA FANUSIE, DUYEON KIM and ERIC PENTON-VOAK” — The Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: “Empowering Congress and the Executive to Promote Human Rights — with KATE KIZER , PATTY MURRAY, ANNIE SHIEL, RACHEL STOHL and LAUREN WOODS” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: “ Elusive Balances: Shaping U.S.-Southeast Asia Strategy — with PRASHANTH PARAMESWARAN and GREGORY B. POLING” — The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 10 a.m.: “Diverse Voices Reporting From Ukraine — with OZ KATERJI, ASAMI TERAJIMA and OLGA TOKARIUK” — The International Press Centre, 10 a.m.: “The Future of Danish Defence — with SØREN ESPERSEN, NIELS FLEMMING HANSEN, MOGENS JENSEN and MARTIN LIDEGAARD” — The SETA Foundation at Washington DC, 10 a.m.: “ NATO’s Response and the US Policy on Ukraine — with YEVGENIYA GABER, JOHN HERBST, KILIC KANAT and MARK N. KATZ” — Palo Alto Networks, 10:30 a.m.: “The Role of Cyber in Hybrid Warfare and Great Power Competition/Conflict — with BRUCE BYRD , STEPHEN FOGARTY, MICHAEL P. RYAN, BJ SHWEDO, TJ WHITE and more” — The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., 11:30 a.m.: “Conversation with H.E. MAREK MAGIEROWSKI, Ambassador of the Republic of Poland to the United States — with DAVID RUBENSTEIN” — The Association of the U.S. Army, 12 p.m.: “Noon Report: Leadership and Cooperation in Action: Allies and Partners in USARCENT/USCENTCOM — with RONALD P. CLARK and LESLIE C. SMITH” — The Hudson Institute, 12:15 p.m.: “How Can the World Bank and IMF Assist Ukraine? A Conversation with Congressman FRENCH HILL — with KENNETH R. WEINSTEIN” — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: “Zero Trust as a Federal Priority — with DREW EPPERSON, GEORGE JACKSON, FRANK KONKEL, BRIAN MCCARTHY and JAIME LYNN NOBLE” — The National Security Innovation Network and Dcode, 1 p.m.: “NSIN Emerge Accelerator Showcase Day” — The Government Executive Media Group, 2 p.m.: “ Automating Security for the Zero Trust Enterprise — with CLARK ANDERSON, JENNIFER R. FRANKS and GEORGE JACKSON” — The Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: “One-Size-Fits-None: Overhauling JADC2 to Deliver Customized Solutions to the U.S. Military — with BRYAN CLARK, MARK LEWIS and JAMES L. STEWART” — The American University Washington College of Law, 3 p.m.: “At the Intersection: Featuring Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Cyberspace Security MICHELE MARKOFF” — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: “The 10th Annual Ronald Reagan Intelligence Lecture: Strategic Deception and Active Measures — with JOHN LENCZOWSKI” — The East–West Center, 6 p.m.: “After the Invasion: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Affecting U.S. Relations With the Indo-Pacific Region — with SATU LIMAYE”
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