Ukraine’s wish list for the Donbas fight

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Tuesday Apr 26,2022 08:37 pm
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
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By Lara Seligman, Andrew Desiderio, Quint Forgey and Alexander Ward

The U.S. M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System firing an MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile is pictured.

EAST COAST, SOUTH KOREA - JULY 05: In this handout photo released by the South Korean Defense Ministry, U.S. M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System firing an MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile during a U.S. and South Korea joint missile drill aimed to counter North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile test on July 5, 2017 in East Coast, South Korea. The U.S. Army and South Korean military responded to North Korea's missile launch with a combined ballistic missile exercise on Wednesday, into South Korean waters along the country's eastern coastline. (Photo by South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images) | South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images

With help from Connor O'Brien 

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Fresh off an unannounced visit to Kyiv and a huddle with his global counterparts in Germany, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN made clear today that the U.S. military’s support for Ukraine will not waver.

“My Ukrainian friends: We know the burden that all of you carry. And you should know that all of us have your back,” the Pentagon chief said at Ramstein Air Base.

The U.S. has already sent billions of dollars of equipment to help Ukraine fend off the Russian advance, and the White House is expected to ask Congress for more funds later this week. The question now is, what will be added to the next package of aid?

If Ukrainian officials have their way, it will include a lot more heavy weaponry to counter Russia’s assault in the southeastern Donbas region. In a briefing Monday, those officials told congressional aides that the country needs a significant increase in towed M777 howitzer cannons, as well as the self-propelled M109 Paladin artillery system, the heavy multiple launch rocket system and a new version of the Switchblade drone, the 600, according to two staffers who spoke to NatSecDaily on condition of anonymity.

Additional weaponry — particularly the howitzers and the longer-range MLRS — will be crucial to preventing a Russian advance in the Donbas, providing Ukraine the ability to neutralize the barrage of Russian rockets, missiles and artillery, asserted retired Army Lt. Gen. BEN HODGES. “They need artillery, they need rocket launchers, they need drones,” he said.

Ukraine still wants MiG-29 fighter jets, one of the sources said, but a three-way deal for the aircraft with the U.S. and Poland seems to have fallen through. The agreement, should it have gone ahead, called for Poland to transfer 28 jets to Ukraine through Ramstein, while the U.S. would have backfilled the Polish Air Force with F-16s.

The briefing comes as lawmakers are awaiting President JOE BIDEN’s formal request for additional military and economic assistance for Ukraine. Last week, Biden said he had exhausted much of the presidential drawdown authority that Congress gave him in March, a key fund that allows him to transfer weapons from U.S. stockpiles.

Lawmakers expect to receive the White House’s official request later this week. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said earlier today that he expects “swift, bipartisan cooperation to get it done,” though aid could become mired in a separate legislative fight over new Covid-related funding.

So far, there has mostly been broad bipartisan support on the Hill when it comes to the types of weapons to provide to the Ukrainians. We wouldn’t expect this time around to be much different.

 

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The Inbox

SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism.

War in Ukraine: 

— Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 22,100 personnel; 918 tanks; 2,308 armored combat vehicles; 416 artillery systems; 149 multiple-launch rocket systems; 184 warplanes; 154 helicopters; eight ships; and 205 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “Russian enemy continues to carry out offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to defeat the Joint Forces, establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and maintain the land route with the occupied Crimea.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “Russian enemy is carrying out massive fire and blocking of Ukrainian units in the area of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. … Russian occupiers continue to plunder the local population in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “Russian forces are likely attempting to encircle heavily fortified Ukrainian positions in the east of Ukraine. The city of Kreminna has reportedly fallen and heavy fighting is reported south of Izium, as Russian forces attempt to advance towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north and east. Ukrainian forces have been preparing defences in Zaporizhzhia in preparation for a potential Russian attack from the south.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense)

A map showing Russian forces' positions in Ukraine as of April 26 is pictured.

A map showing Russian forces' positions in Ukraine as of April 26 is pictured. | Janes

Global Response: 

— Germany: Defense Minister CHRISTINE LAMBRECHT said Germany will refurbish and send to Ukraine roughly 50 Flakpanzer Gepard, or Cheetah, anti-aircraft cannon tanks that have been decommissioned by the German armed forces.

— Norway: Prime Minister JONAS GAHR STØRE said his government will allocate roughly $43.7 million to a British-led initiative to buy weapons for Ukraine and may make additional direct shipments of weapons.

— Poland: Interior Minister MARIUSZ KAMINSKI announced sanctions on 50 Russian entities and individuals, including Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom and MOSHE KANTOR, who owns a share of Poland’s state-owned chemicals group Azoty.

— U.K.: Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON said his government will send 22 new ambulances along with additional funding for health experts and medical care to Ukraine. The ambulances will arrive within days.

Headlines:

— The Associated Press:Putin Gets What He Didn’t Want: Ukraine Army Closer to West

— NBC News:U.S. Intel Helped Ukraine Protect Air Defenses, Shoot Down Russian Plane Carrying Hundreds of Troops

—The Wall Street Journal: In Liberated Ukrainian Villages, Fears Grow for Men Taken to Russia

SECDEF SAYS UKRAINE ‘CAN WIN’: Austin, speaking during his “Ukraine Defense Consultative Group” at Ramstein, said the U.S. and the broader international community believe Ukraine can triumph over Russia, Quint reports.

“Ukraine clearly believes that it can win, and so does everyone here,” Austin said at the meeting of defense ministers, adding: “Ukraine needs our help to win today. And they will still need our help when the war is over.”

Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY also told CNN that victory “is certainly in the cards” for Kyiv: “I think winning is very clearly defined by a Ukraine whose sovereignty is fully respected, whose territorial integrity is not violated by Russia or any other country for that matter. And they can win, as the secretary said. And they certainly believe that they can do it.”

TO THE BRINK: Our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER and ANDREW DESIDERIO are out with a new profile on U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia BRIDGET BRINK, Biden’s newly announced pick to serve as the American envoy in Ukraine.

Three former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine offered their unflinching support for Brink’s nomination. “She knows how to put together teams and, you know, get to success. And I think that’s what she’s going to do. She’s very strong,” said MARIE YOVANOVITCH. STEVEN PIFER called Brink “bright” and “well informed,” and WILLIAM TAYLOR said: “She’s going to be great for the job.”

A Russian speaker whose career has mostly been focused on Europe and Eurasia, Brink is a known entity in Ukraine circles. She served for three years as deputy assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, where she worked closely with Yovanovitch while the latter was in Kyiv.

Interviews with both Democratic and Republican senators suggest a speedy confirmation for Brink. Republicans, in particular, said they were eager to see a Senate-approved ambassador in place as they urge Biden to reestablish the U.S. diplomatic presence in Kyiv, describing Brink as a qualified and consensus pick for the job.

RUSSIA STRIKES SUPPLY LINES: Russia launched rockets Monday at five railway facilities used to funnel critical supplies into Ukraine, report our own PAUL MCLEARY and LARA SELIGMAN, making good on its promise to attack U.S. and allied weapons shipment points and fuel depots in the country.

The attacks across western and central Ukraine targeting supply lines and infrastructure come as billions of dollars worth of heavy artillery systems, tanks and armored vehicles begin arriving to help Ukraine face off against what is expected to be a full-scale Russian assault in the Donbas.

But in this new phase of the conflict, protecting critical supply lines will be key, experts and former officials say. Those supply lines have been threatened by Russia since it invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, but until now Moscow hasn’t explicitly acknowledged it acted on these warnings.

“The fight for Donbas will be won or lost primarily on logistics: weapons, equipment and ammunition,” said MICK MULROY , a former top Pentagon official and retired CIA paramilitary officer and Marine. “There have to be uninterrupted supply lines from the U.S. and NATO.”

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Flashpoints

KIM PLEDGES NUCLEAR ACCELERATION AT MILITARY PARADE: North Korean state media reported today that leader KIM JONG UN , speaking at a nighttime military parade marking the 90th anniversary of North Korea’s army, vowed to “continue to take measures for further developing the nuclear forces of our state at the fastest possible speed,” report The Associated Press’ KIM TONG-HYUNG and HYUNG-JIN KIM.

“State television showed Kim, dressed in a white military ceremonial coat, smiling and waving from a balcony with his wife, RI SOL JU, and top deputies, in response to roaring cheers from thousands of troops and spectators. Fireworks lit up the night sky and illuminated drones formed the country’s flag,” per the AP.

Kim’s remarks at the parade — “held as the country’s economy is battered by pandemic-related difficulties, punishing U.S.-led sanctions and its own mismanagement” — are more evidence that “he will continue provocative weapons tests in a pressure campaign aimed at wresting concessions from the United States and its allies.”

Keystrokes

CISA WRITING RULES FOR CYBER MANDATE: CISA spokesperson MICHAEL FELDMAN told our own ERIC GELLER in Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) that the agency is “beginning the required rulemaking process to implement” the long-sought cyber incident reporting program that became law last month.

That process “will include a public comment period, during which CISA welcomes input to ensure that the proposed rule benefits from the perspectives of our broad partner community,” Feldman said. CISA has 24 months to issue an interim rule.

The law requires CISA to solicit feedback from critical infrastructure operators, security firms and other members of the cybersecurity community as it fills in the details of the program, including which companies have to report incidents, which incidents qualify as reportable and which information must be reported.

“You’re going to see a tremendous amount of interest from all types and sizes of companies,” said ANDREW HOWELL, a partner at Monument Advocacy who focuses on cybersecurity.

The Complex

RAYTHEON’S STINGER SHORTAGE: Raytheon Technologies CEO GREG HAYES told investors today that the company won’t be able to ramp up production of Stinger missiles until 2023, due to a lack of parts and materials for the weapons that Western allies have rushed to Ukraine, McLeary reports.

Thousands of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles have been pulled from stocks across Europe and the United States and sent to Ukraine, but as yet there is no solid plan to replenish the stocks for the countries that donated them. The company is currently building a limited number of new Stinger missiles for an unnamed international customer at its Arizona facility, Hayes said.

The production line is capable of building only a limited number at a time, Hayes added, and the work ahead to replenish global stocks will require a larger commitment from the U.S. government to fund and sustain a higher rate of production.

F-35 PROGRAM FLAILS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) highlighted a new Government Accountability Office report showing that the F-35 fighter jet program continues to suffer from rising costs and schedule delays that are preventing the Pentagon from conducting sufficient testing to approve full-rate production.

But the Defense Department is still planning to buy up to 152 of the aircraft per year and will acquire about one-third of the fleet before determining that the program has reached an acceptable level of performance and reliability, the report found.

“It means that more aircraft will need to be fixed later if more performance issues are identified, which will cost more than if those issues were resolved before those aircraft were produced,” according to GAO.

GLOBAL DEFENSE SPENDING TOPS $2 TRILLION: Europe’s increased defense expenditures rocketed global defense spending above $2 trillion for the first time ever, and there’s no sign of it slowing down.

“In 2021, countries spent a total of $2,113 billion on their militaries, up 0.7% in real terms from the year before, according to a report released Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI,” reports Bloomberg News’ NICLAS ROLANDER.

“After a brief period of declining military spending between 2011 and 2014, outlays have increased for seven consecutive years, according to SIPRI data. In the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, several European governments have pledged a spending overhaul to boost their forces’ capabilities.”

“Europe was already on an increasing trend, and this trend will accelerate and intensify,” LUCIE BERAUD-SUDREAU , director of SIPRI’s military expenditure and arms production program, told Rolander. “Usually change happens slowly, until you are in a crisis and then change really happens. I think that’s where we are now.”

The upturn comes after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and is set to continue after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

 

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On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HOUSE LAWMAKERS SEEK INVESTMENT IN NATIONAL DEFENSE STOCKPILE: A bipartisan group of eight House lawmakers sent a letter to the top two members of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, asking for a plus-up in spending for the National Defense Stockpile.

In the letter, led by Reps. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) and SCOTT FRANKLIN (R-Fla.), the House members say that years of drawing down the stockpile have left the U.S. military in dire straits.

“While these drawdowns were appropriate when the Department of Defense was mainly focused on counterterrorism, the current stockpile is inadequate to meet the requirements of great power competition. The NDS is no longer capable of covering the Department of Defense’s needs for the vast majority of identified materials in the event of a supply chain disruption,” they wrote to Reps. BETTY MCCOLLUM (D-Minn.), the subcommittee’s chair, and KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.), the panel’s top Republican.

As a result, the lawmakers recommend that an additional $264 million in funding for the NDS Transaction Fund be added in the FY23 budget.

“The NDS is no longer capable of covering the Department of Defense’s needs for the vast majority of identified materials in the event of a supply chain disruption. Furthermore, the Department of Defense has found that the NDS Transaction Fund is approaching fiscal insolvency by FY25,” they wrote.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HOUSE DEMS WANT U.S. TO FUND AND JOIN ICC: Two House Democrats will introduce a bill today to urge the United States to fund the International Criminal Court –– and eventually become a party to it.

The Support International Criminal Investigations for Ukraine Act, led by Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) and co-sponsored by Rep. JIM McGOVERN (D-Mass.), would repeal a ban that prohibits the U.S. from funding the court while encouraging the U.S. to assist the ICC’s investigation into alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Further, the bill calls on the administration to accede to the Rome Statute, the court’s founding treaty — thus making the U.S. a member.

The clear hope for the lawmakers is that Biden’s desire to assist Ukraine will translate into the U.S. joining the ICC, a move Democrats and Republicans have long rejected.

“It is time for the United States to fully support the International Criminal Court and begin the process of joining the ICC as a state party. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and conduct across this war have shown that we are in a fight right now for the future of the international system — one that values human rights and holds those who violate them accountable,” Jacobs told NatSec Daily.

“Now is the time for the United States to lead by example and stand up for human rights around the world. And we believe that means fully supporting the International Criminal Court as it begins looking into the horrible atrocities being committed by Russia against the people of Ukraine and elsewhere,” McGovern added.

Broadsides

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GROUPS SEEK END TO TUNISIA MILITARY AID: Fifty progressive, Islamic and human rights groups sent a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN suggesting the U.S. suspend military aid to Tunisia until the North African nation returns to its democratic path.

Tunisia, one of the Arab Spring’s success stories, backslid democratically after President KAIS SAIED dissolved Parliament in March in a gambit to seize total power. The groups, such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations and Win Without War, argue that one way Saied will reconsider his actions is if America cuts off the military funding tap.

“We call on the Biden administration to [s]uspend U.S. military assistance until Tunisia is on a path towards democracy,” they wrote, and “[w]ork with allies to suspend all non-essential aid, including, immediately, the nearly $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation compact that requires Tunisia to meet democratic thresholds, until this same condition is met.”

The groups also are calling on the U.S. not to attend any high-level meetings with Saied’s government.

In March, shortly after Saied dissolved Parliament, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said “[a] swift return to constitutional governance, including an elected parliament, is critical to democratic governance, and will ensure widespread and lasting support for needed reforms to help Tunisia’s economy rebound.”

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Transitions

— MARIA BOWIE has joined lobbying firm SMI as a vice president. She most recently was the director of government affairs at Leidos and led legislative efforts for Reps. Ken Calvert and TOM COLE (R-Okla.), two senior Republican appropriators.

— EVELYN FARKAS has been named executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University, starting May 2. She previously served as a top Pentagon official for Ukraine and other Eurasian affairs.

— CRAIG MARTELL has been appointed chief digital and artificial intelligence officer at the Defense Department. He most recently served as the head of machine learning for Lyft.

What to Read

— SAM MEDNICK, The Associated Press:Hunger Grips Burkina Faso Due to Increasing Jihadi Violence

— AINA J. KHAN, The New York Times:Kenneth Roth, ‘Godfather’ of Human Rights Work, to Step Down

— CRAIG KENNEDY, POLITICO Magazine:Opinion: The Rigidity of Russian Oil Holds the Key to Smart Sanctions

Tomorrow Today

Biden attends the funeral of former Secretary of State MADELEINE ALBRIGHT at Washington National Cathedral.

— Astor Perkins, 8:15 a.m.:All Things Deep Tech and Survival — with DAVID ALEXANDER and more”

— ADS, Inc., 9 a.m.:Warrior West Conference — with TRAVIS BROWN, JONATHAN GUMBERT , STEPHEN HICKS, KEVIN KEELEY, JULIANNE MIRANDA, MIKE PARSONS and HILARY STALLINGS WARREN

— House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security — with ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.:Full Committee Hearing: Department of the Air Force Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request — with CHARLES Q. BROWN, FRANK KENDALL III and JOHN W. RAYMOND

— House Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Oversight of Federal Efforts to Combat Human Trafficking — with JACQUELYN ALUOTTO, EVELYN CHUMBOW, MARK J. DANNELS, CRISTIAN EDUARDO, TERRY FITZPATRICK, SHAMERE MCKENZIE, MARTINA E. VANDENBERG and JESSICA M. VAUGHAN 

— House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, 10 a.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Review of Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Programs

— House Appropriations Committee, 10:30 a.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command FY2023 Budget and Posture — with PAUL M. NAKASONE

— House Budget Committee, 10:30 a.m.: Full Committee Hearing: Department of Defense FY 2023 Budget — with MICHAEL J. MCCORD

— The Atlantic Council and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Foundation, 12 p.m.:Implementing a Way Forward in Iraq — with REND AL-RAHIM, RAMÓN BLECUA, MARIA FANTAPPIE, ABBAS KADHIM, LAITH KUBBA, C. ANTHONY PFAFF and INNA RUDOLF

— Defense One, 1 p.m.:The Path to Marine Corps Modernization — with PHIL OSIP and RENATA SPINKS

— House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request of the Department of Defense for Fixed-Wing Tactical and Training Aircraft Programs — with JAMES H. ADAMS, ERIC FICK, ANDREW P. HUNTER, ANDREW LOISELLE, JON LUDWIGSON, DAVID NAHOM, FREDERICK ‘JAY’ STEFANY and MARK WISE

— House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.:Full Committee Hearing: A Review of the Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security — with ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS

— House Rules Committee, 2 p.m.: Full Committee Hearing: Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 and Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2022

— House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: At What Cost? Ensuring Quality Representation in the Veteran Benefit Claims Process — with MARTY CALLAGHAN, RYAN GALLUCCI, RICHARD HIPOLIT, DIANE BOYD RAUBER, EVAN SEAMONE, CHRISTA SHRIBER and WILLIAM ‘BILL’ TAYLOR

— Senate Appropriations Committee, 2 p.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Review of the Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of State — with ANTONY BLINKEN

— House Appropriations Committee, 2:30 p.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation — with MICHAEL L. CONNOR, DAVID PALUMBO, SCOTT A. SPELLMON and TANYA TRUJILLO

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 2:30 p.m.: Subcommittee Hearing: United States Special Operations Command’s Efforts to Sustain the Readiness of Special Operations Forces and Transform the Force for Future Security Challenges — with JONATHAN P. BRAGA, JAMES F. GLYNN, HUGH W. HOWARD III and JAMES C. SLIFE

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.:Closed Briefing: Recent Developments in China’s Nuclear Capabilities — with JUNG H. PAK and MALLORY A. STEWART

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: AI and AVs: Implications in U.S.-China Competition — with DENNIS BLAIR, JOHN BOZZELLA, JAMES ANDREW LEWIS, GARY PETERS and WILLIAM ALAN REINSCH

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 3 p.m.: Subcommittee Hearing: Military and Civilian Personnel Programs in the Department of Defense in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2023 and the Future Years Defense Program — with GARY BRITO, GILBERT CISNEROS JR., GWENDOLYN DEFILIPPI, ELIZABETH FOSTER, PATRICIA MULCAHY, JOHN NOWELL, DAVID OTTIGNON, VIRGINIA PENROD and DAVID SMITH

— Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 3 p.m.:Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with SHEREEF M. ELNAHAL and RAYMOND M. JEFFERSON

— House Armed Services Committee, 4:30 p.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for Seapower and Projection Forces — with SCOTT CONN, KARSTEN HECKL and JAY STEFANY

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 4:30 p.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: The Department of Energy’s Atomic Energy Defense Activities and Department of Defense Nuclear Weapons Programs in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2023 and the Future Years Defense Program — with MARVIN L. ADAMS, JAMES F. CALDWELL JR., ANTHONY J. COTTON, JILL M. HRUBY, WILLIAM WHITE and JOHNNY R. WOLFE, JR.

—The Vandenberg Coalition, 4:30 p.m.: Left Behind in Afghanistan: Afghan Special Forces, Women and Vulnerable Groups — with CATHY CRUZAN, KELLEY ECKELS CURRIE, CARRIE FILIPETTI, DAVID HICKS, AMY K. MITCHELL, ILAHA ELI OMAR, TRAVIS PETERSON and MIKE WALTZ

— The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 6:30 p.m.:The Aeder Family LINK Program: Russia and the Emerging New World Order — with PAULA DOBRIANSKY, JOSH ROGIN and DENNIS ROSS 

 

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