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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Lara Seligman, Christopher Miller, Paul McLeary, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Getty Images | With help from Betsy Woodruff Swan Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint It’s not every day that the United States approves the sale or transfer of armed drones to a foreign country — but Ukraine is hoping the Biden administration will heed the call of soldiers on the ground to do just that. In addition to heavy artillery and rocket systems, Ukrainian officials are also asking the United States for "strike drones” — specifically the
and MQ-1C Gray Eagle, with “appropriate munitions” like the AGM-114 Hellfire missile, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense told POLITICO in a statement on Wednesday. “We are awaiting positive results,” according to the ministry. The Pentagon has already sent Ukraine a number of small, expendable Switchblade drones and the new Phoenix Ghost, a similar capability. But officials say they also want the more sophisticated Reaper and Gray Eagle, which can cover farther distances, fly at greater altitude, and be reloaded for additional missions. Ukraine has already reportedly had discussions with General Atomics, the drone manufacturer, to obtain these systems. But any sale or transfer would require sign-off by the U.S. government, specifically the State Department and the Pentagon. And for any weapons request, that’s easier said than done — DoD officials must weigh a number of variables in deciding whether to grant the request, including concerns of escalation, technology sensitivities and shareability, as well as whether the Ukrainians would actually be able to use the capability. Asked whether the United States would provide the Reaper and Gray Eagles to Ukraine, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby declined to comment on the deliberations. Armed drones are a particularly complicated ask because they are subject to strict regulations, including the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which requires that exports of most missile systems, from cruise missiles to the larger unmanned aircraft, are subject to a“strong presumption of denial.” That means any missile or drone that can carry a 500 kilogram payload with a range of 300 kilometers should not be transferred from one country to another. These restrictions have hobbled sales of Reaper and Gray Eagle to even some of the United States’ partners, including Qatar and Indonesia — so such a transfer to Ukraine seems like a stretch for now. But that may be changing, although slowly. In 2020, the Trump administration unilaterally decided to relax the restrictions on sales of armed drones over the objections of many in the arms control community and without the buy-in of the MTCR. A State Department spokesperson would only offer that the U.S. “remains committed to the MTCR,” without detailing any possible changes to how drones are categorized. “When it comes to Ukraine, there's a fuzzy line between defensive weapons and offensive weapons,” said Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association, “and Reaper drones would very likely be considered an offensive weapon that could strike into Russia,” which would likely preclude their transfer under current MTCR guidelines.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin’s LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn more. | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 22,400 personnel; 939 tanks; 2,342 armored combat vehicles; 421 artillery systems; 149 multiple-launch rocket systems; 185 warplanes; 155 helicopters; eight ships; and 207 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Russian enemy continues to carry out offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to defeat the Joint Forces, establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and maintain the land route with the occupied Crimea. The greatest activity of Russian occupying forces is observed in the Slobozhansky and Donetsk directions.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Russian air activity is primarily focused on southern and eastern Ukraine, providing support to Russian ground forces. Russia has very limited air access to the north and west of Ukraine, limiting offensive actions to deep strikes with stand-off weapons. Russia continues to target Ukrainian military assets and logistics infrastructure across the country.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense) — “Ukraine retains control over the majority of its airspace. Russia has failed to effectively destroy the Ukrainian Air Force or suppress Ukrainian air defences. Ukraine continues to hold Russian air assets at risk. Russian air activity is primarily focused on southern and eastern Ukraine, providing support to Russian ground forces. Russia has very limited air access to the north and west of Ukraine, limiting offensive actions to deep strikes with stand-off weapons. Russia continues to target Ukrainian military assets and logistics infrastructure across the country. The majority of Russian air strikes in Mariupol are likely being conducted using unguided free-falling bombs. These weapons reduce Russia’s ability to effectively discriminate when conducting strikes, increasing the risk of civilian casualties.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense) Headlines: —The New York Times: “ Explosions and downed drones suggest Ukraine is striking targets deeper inside Russia” —The Wall Street Journal: “Moldova Places Security Forces on Alert After Blasts in Breakaway State of Transnistria” —The Washington Post: “ In Ukraine, destroyed Russian tanks are the newest roadside attraction”
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | TREVOR REED RETURNED: TREVOR REED, a former U.S. Marine from Texas who was detained in Moscow, has been released and returned to the United States as part of a prisoner exchange with Russia, Quint reports. In return for Reed, the U.S. agreed to release KONSTANTIN YAROSHENKO, a Russian pilot and convicted drug trafficker serving a 20-year federal prison sentence in Connecticut, according to Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Reed was arrested in Moscow in 2019 after a night of drinking and was sentenced to nine years in prison on assault charges for what the Russian authorities described as endangering the “life and health” of local police officers. President JOE BIDEN, who met with Reed’s parents last month after they demonstrated outside the White House, confirmed the news of Reed’s release in a statement on Wednesday. “I heard in the voices of Trevor’s parents how much they’ve worried about his health and missed his presence,” Biden said. “And I was delighted to be able to share with them the good news about Trevor’s freedom.” Read the entirety of Quint’s story. ‘THIS ONE’S TOUGH’: PAUL WHELAN is one prominent American who remains in Russia as Reed comes home. Detained in December 2018 on spying charges despite no evidence, he remains sentenced to 16 years hard labor at a prison hours outside of Moscow. NatSec Daily spoke to RYAN FAYHEE who represents the Whelans in the U.S. He told us that Whelan was told about Reed’s release from people at the prison in Russian — and while Whelan doesn’t speak the language, he pieced the news together. Relaying Whelan’s sentiments, Fayhee said the former Marine is “deeply disappointed.” “This one’s tough, it’s tough to take,” he said. Fayhee insisted that the Reed-for-Yaroshenko deal was disproportionate as Russia got a hardened criminal back in exchange for an innocent man. It should’ve included Whelan, he told us. Fayhee said top officials — from U.S. Ambassador to Russia JOHN SULLIVAN to national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN — have prioritized Whelan’s release. Still, he thinks Biden’s team could do a lot more. For example, he’d like the president to draft an executive, authorized by the Robert Levinson Hostage Act, to target those responsible for the wrongful detainment of Americans with visa and property-blocking sanctions. “We’ve seen how quickly it can be done,” during the Ukraine crisis, Fayhee said, wondering why it’s taken the administration so long to do one for Whelan. Fayhee hopes Biden will personally meet with the Whelan family soon and that his administration will redouble efforts to bring Paul home. “If we don’t hear from them, they’ll hear from us,” he said. RUSSIA SHIFTS TO SLOWER STRATEGY: Analysts say that Russia has shifted to a slower, more deliberative strategy in Eastern Ukraine — clearly breaking from the blitzkrieg plan that failed in the war’s earliest weeks, per The New York Times’ CORA ENGELBRECHT. “Military analysts with the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, said in their most recent assessment on Tuesday that ‘Russian forces have adopted a sounder pattern of operational movement in eastern Ukraine,’ which is allowing them to ‘bring more combat power to bear’ in their narrower goal of capturing the region,” she wrote. “Russia continues to rely on heavy air bombardments as it amasses troops and weaponry for a bigger push along the front line, according to the British Defense Ministry’s latest intelligence update on Wednesday.” NatSec Daily has been told the same by experts in recent days, noting that Russia has done a 180-degree turn in how it’s fighting the war. The question now is if it will work, with many suggesting Moscow retains the upper hand in Ukraine’s east where the terrain is less urban and attrition advantages a larger force.
| | | |   | | | IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | RUSSIA STOPS GAS SHIPMENTS TO POLAND AND BULGARIA: Russia's Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday morning over their refusal to settle payments in rubles, setting off a political crisis over Moscow's reliability as an energy supplier to the EU, our own AMERICA HERNANDEZ and ZOSIA WANAT reported. "The announcement by Gazprom that it is unilaterally stopping delivery of gas to customers in Europe is yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as an instrument of blackmail," Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN said Wednesday morning in a statement . "This is unjustified and unacceptable. And it shows once again the unreliability of Russia as a gas supplier." Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI called the move "a direct attack on Poland." Polish gas utility company PGNiG said the Russian decision was related to its refusal to pay for its gas in rubles, as demanded by Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. SUU KYI SENTENCED 5 MORE YEARS: AUNG SAN SUU KYI, the leader of Myanmar’s ousted democratically elected government, was sentenced to five more years in prison after a court led by the new military junta rulers found her guilty of corruption, per The Wall Street Journal’s FELIZ SOLOMON. “The mounting verdicts make it increasingly unlikely that Ms. Suu Kyi, 76, will make a political comeback after a decadeslong career in public life that made her Myanmar’s best-known face around the world,” Solomon wrote. “They also underscore the junta’s unwillingness to change course and the limitations of international pressure,” from the U.S. and others. It’s a bad sign, experts warn. “Myanmar’s military junta and the country’s kangaroo courts are walking in lockstep to put Aung San Suu Kyi away for what could be a life sentence, given her advanced age,” PHIL ROBERTSON, deputy Asia director for Human Rights Watch, told the WSJ. “Destroying popular democracy in Myanmar also means getting rid of Aung San Suu Kyi, and the junta is leaving nothing to chance.”
| | | CYBERCOM NOM: Biden on Tuesday evening nominated Lt. Gen. TIMOTHY D. HAUGH as the next deputy commander of U.S. Cyber Command. Record Future’s MARTIN MARTISHAK noted that Haugh has a long history with the command housed at Fort Meade, Md. “Before he took the reins of the Sixteenth Air Force in 2019, Haugh — who is considered the most likely successor to Cyber Command and National Security Agency chief Gen. PAUL NAKASONE — was the commander of the Cyber National Mission Force,” he wrote. “In that role he served as the Cyber Command co-lead of a joint election security task force with the National Security Agency that worked to protect the 2018 midterms from foreign hackers, an effort dubbed Operation Synthetic Theology.” “Prior to that, Haugh served as Cyber Command’s director of intelligence and was the deputy chief of Joint Task Force-Ares, a special unit the Pentagon created in 2016 and ordered to develop offensive cyber weapons to combat the Islamic State,” per Martishak.
| | | AEROJET ROCKETDYNE PROBLEMS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported on the game of thrones happening at Aerojet Rocketdyne.In a letter to shareholders, Executive Chair WARREN LICHTENSTEIN accused CEO EILEEN DRAKE of a “misleading, self-serving and unjustifiable attempt to hijack control of the company.” The broadside marks the latest round in a bare-knuckle brawl at the top of the major Pentagon and NASA supplier. And it casts further doubt on whether a second-tier defense company or venture capital firm might want to make a play for Aerojet after the FTC in February blocked Lockheed Martin’s proposed acquisition over antitrust concerns. Lichtenstein and Drake are each dug in with half of Aerojet’s board, whose members have also come to blows in court. Lichtenstein’s latest move comes a month after the Drake faction issued a letter to shareholders describing Lichtenstein’s “disruptive proxy contest” as an effort “to secure his board position and gain leverage in the context of the company's internal investigation” of him.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America’s next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn more. | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– ROGERS ANGER OVER STINGERS: Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, is upset he hasn’t seen a blueprint to replace America’s stockpile of Stinger missiles that’s been depleted from sending thousands to Ukraine. “It’s unacceptable that we’ve yet to receive a plan from DoD on how it plans to replenish our Stinger stockpile,” he told NatSec Daily exclusively. HASC Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) and Rogers both “wrote to the Secretary [of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN] on this over a month ago and the lack of a response has been deafening. It’s almost as if certain parts of the Pentagon don’t understand that we’re in the middle of the largest war in Europe since WWII.” Our own PAUL McLEARY wrote Tuesday that Raytheon’s CEO said that the company won’t be able to ramp up production of Stinger missiles until 2023, due to a lack of parts and materials for the weapons. “We’ve been working with the DoD for the last couple of weeks, we’re actively trying to resource some of the material, but unfortunately, DoD hasn’t bought a Stinger in about 18 years and some of the components are no longer commercially available,” CEO GREG HAYES said on a Tuesday earnings call. PAUL SAYS BACKING UKRAINE LED TO INVASION: In a testy exchange Tuesday with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) said part of the blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine falls on America’s shoulders, The Washington Post’s AMY CHENG reported. “While there is no justification for Putin’s war on Ukraine, it does not follow that there is no explanation for the invasion,” Paul told Blinken during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. “You could also argue that the countries that it has attacked were … part of the Soviet Union.” Blinken was … umm … unconvinced, saying Putin decided Ukraine shouldn’t exist as a nation and that America’s support for Ukraine wasn’t a major factor. “We, senators, are not going to be more Ukrainian than the Ukrainians,” Blinken said. “Our purpose is to make sure that they have within their hands the ability to repel the Russian aggression and indeed to strengthen their hand at an eventual negotiating table.” A debate has spread in the foreign affairs world, centering on whether NATO expansion and America’s support for eventually making Ukraine an alliance member moved Russia to invade. NatSec Daily can’t claim any special wisdom, but we’ve come to believe that free will is still a factor. Was Russia upset about U.S. policy to Ukraine? Of course. Did they have to invade Ukraine as a response? Of course not.
| | | ‘WE WILL USE THEM’: Putin gave a speech today in which he once again threatened a massive military response should foreign actors — read: the U.S. and/or NATO — directly interfere in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “If someone plans to interfere in events or creates unacceptable threats to Russia, they should know that our strikes in response will be lighting fast. We have all the instruments for that, of a kind that no one can boast about. And we will use them if necessary,” Putin said today in an address. At first blush, this sounds like many other warnings Russia made over the past two months. But it’s a more ominous warning as explosions have rocked the country, with many suspicious incident happening near the Russian-Ukrainian border. MYHAILO PODOLYAK, an adviser to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, wrote on Telegram today: “If you [the Russians] decide to attack another country en masse … sooner or later the debts will have to be paid back…Karma is a cruel thing.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — NINA JANKOWICZ is joining the Department of Homeland Security as executive director of a new Disinformation Governance Board, stood up to focus on irregular migration and Russia. She was previously a disinformation fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C.
| | | — CATHY YOUNG, The Bulwark: “The Bizarre Russian Prophet Rumored to Have Putin’s Ear” — SONER CAGAPTAY and RICH OUTZEN, Foreign Affairs: “Turkey’s Lethal Weapon” — STEPHEN WALT, Foreign Policy: “ Elites from Russia, Europe, and the United States Are Still Getting Nationalism Wrong”
| | | — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: “Russia’s War in Ukraine and the State of Transatlantic Relations: An Irish Perspective — with HEATHER A. CONLEY and SIMON COVENEY” — House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the Department of State — with ANTONY BLINKEN” — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Member Day” — House Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security” — House Science, Space and Technology Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Now or Never: The Urgent Need for Ambitious Climate Action — with KO BARRETT, DANIELLA LEVINE CAVA, DOMINIQUE M. DAVID-CHAVEZ and JEREMY HARRELL” — House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2023 — with TAMMY BARTLETT, MORGAN BROWN, SHANE LIERMANN and DENIS MCDONOUGH” — Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with LINDA FAGAN” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11:15 a.m.: “A Conversation with the Honorable ANITA ANAND, Minister of National Defence of Canada — with KATHLEEN MCINNIS” — The Washington Space Business Roundtable, 12 p.m.: “White House Report on In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing National Strategy: Its Importance to Space Industry and U.S. Space Leadership — with JONATHAN GOFF, LINDSAY MILLARD, SALLY RICHARDSON and EZINNE UZO-OKORO” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: “Maritime Security Dialogue: The Future of the U.S. Navy — with PETER H. DALY, MICHAEL GILDAY, SETH G. JONES and TOM KARAKO” — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 1 p.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: The State Department's Foreign Policy Priorities and the FY23 Budget Request — with ANTONY BLINKEN” — The Vandenberg Coalition, 1 p.m.: “ Future of Conservative Foreign Policy — with ELBRIDGE COLBY” — House Appropriations Committee, 1:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency — with JEN EASTERLY” — House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: F-35 Sustainment — with ERIC FICK, DIANA MAURER and STEVEN MORANI” — The University of Virginia, 2 p.m.: “A Conversation with the Baltic — with AUDRA PLEPYTE, KRISTJAN PRIKK and MARIS SELGA” — The Brookings Institution, 3 p.m.: “Defense Spending in the States — with ELIZABETH CHIMIENTI, JOHN G. FERRARI, MICHAEL E. O’HANLON, ELISABETH REYNOLDS and DEBORAH ROSENBLUM” — House Armed Services Committee, 4:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command — with RICHARD D. CLARKE and CHRISTOPHER MAIER” — The Johns Hopkins University, 4:45 p.m.: “Latvia and Baltic Security — with MARIS SELGA” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who has threatened to use “instruments … of a kind no one can boast about” if we step out of line. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
