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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Lara Seligman, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
FILE - A Russian military convoy moves on a highway in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces near Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 16, 2022. Mariupol, which is part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key objective for Russia since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov, File) | Alexei Alexandrov, File/AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi, Bryan Bender and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Defense officials assess that Russia is “several days” behind schedule in achieving its objectives in the Donbas, hobbled by logistical issues and Ukrainian resistance, the Pentagon said Friday. Russian ground forces are making “plodding, uneven progress” in the southeastern region, a senior Defense Department official added. The Kremlin has recalibrated its halting war effort and is focusing on a new strategic offense in Ukraine’s south and east. Moscow aims to attack Ukrainian forces in the Donbas from the north, east and south as it moves troops from Mariupol, the official said, adding that Russian forces are falling behind on all fronts. “They meant to be much further along in the total encirclement,” said the official who asked for anonymity in order to candidly discuss operations. Now they are “nowhere close to linking north with south.” Russian forces are wary of repeating their mistakes trying to take Kyiv, where ground forces made rapid advances but moved too far ahead of their supply lines and were not able sustain the fight, the official said. Now, they are able to move only a few kilometers on any given day, the official said. “They literally just sprinted to Kyiv and then didn't have the backup, didn't have the fuel, didn't have the food, didn't have the spare parts to keep them there,” the official said. “They don't want to make that same mistake.” While Russia may have an advantage in the Donbas due to troop numbers and terrain, their ground forces will be hampered by rain, mud and other weather conditions, the official said. Adding to Russia’s troubles, the Pentagon also assesses that Moscow is having problems replenishing its inventory of precision-guided munitions. Most of their strikes are being conducted with “dumb bombs” instead of precision weapons. While it is difficult to predict the outcome of the conflict, for now the Ukrainians “continue to resist effectively in the Donbas,” the official said. The Pentagon’s assessment comes a day after the White House unveiled a massive new $33 billion funding request to bolster Ukraine’s military in the ongoing fight. The proposal, which Congress must still approve, includes more than $20 billion in new military and security assistance, and sends a signal to Russia that the United States intends to continue backing Ukraine for the long haul.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 23,000 personnel; 986 tanks; 2,418 armored combat vehicles; 435 artillery systems; 151 multiple-launch rocket systems; 189 warplanes; 155 helicopters; eight ships; and 229 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Russian enemy continues to carry out offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to defeat the Joint Forces, establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and maintain the land route with the occupied Crimea. … Russian occupiers continue to blockade Ukrainian units in Mariupol, near the Azovstal plant.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “In the temporarily occupied territories, Russian occupation authorities continue to take measures to restrict the movement and detention of local residents and block humanitarian goods from the territory of Ukraine. In addition, Russian occupiers are robbing peasants. For example, more than 60 tons of wheat were stolen from an agricultural society in the town of Kamianka-Dniprovska together with a truck.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “The Battle of Donbas remains Russia’s main strategic focus, in order to achieve its stated aim of securing control over the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. In these oblasts fighting has been particularly heavy around Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, with an attempted advance south from Izium towards Slovyansk. Due to strong Ukrainian resistance, Russian territorial gains have been limited and achieved at significant cost to Russian forces.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — Netherlands: Foreign Affairs Minister WOPKE HOEKSTRA announced that the country will reopen its embassy in Kyiv after returning diplomats to Lviv last week. Headlines: — The Washington Post: “On the Battlefield, Ukraine Uses Soviet-Era Weapons Against Russia” — Associated Press: “UN works to broker civilian evacuation from Mariupol” — The Wall Street Journal: “Poland Supplies Ukraine With Hundreds of Soviet-Style Tanks” RUSSIANS STRIKE KYIV: Russia struck a residential high-rise and another building in Kyiv on Thursday as United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres toured the Ukrainian capital, killing Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist VIRA HYRYCH, per The Associated Press’ DAVID KEYTON and INNA VARENYTSIA. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY accused Moscow of trying to “humiliate the U.N.” with the missile strike, which he said “requires a correspondingly powerful response.” Kyiv Mayor VITALI KLITSCHKO said the strike was Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s way of giving Guterres “his middle finger.” The attack on Kyiv was the most severe the city has seen since Russian forces retreated from around the capital this month and began refocusing their efforts on the current assault in the southeastern Donbas region. UKRAINIANS UNVEIL BUCHA WAR CRIMES CHARGES: Ukrainian prosecutors filed their first war crimes charges Thursday against 10 Russian service members for atrocities in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, per The Washington Post’s AMY CHENG. The Russian troops — who are accused of torturing and taking civilians hostage on the outskirts of the capital — are not in custody, and the charges against them were filed in absentia to Ukrainian courts. Zelenskyy said Thursday that the accused Russian troops were part of the 64th Guard Motorized Brigade, which Putin honored this month in a presidential decree. IRYNA VENEDIKTOVA, Ukraine’s prosecutor general, said the troops are all relatively low ranking, with the most senior being noncommissioned officers. AMERICAN DIES FIGHTING FOR UKRAINE: An American fighting alongside Ukrainian forces to repel Russia’s invasion has died, his family members confirmed to CNN’s ELLIE KAUFMAN and CLARISSA WARD. WILLY JOSEPH CANCEL, 22, “was working with a private military contracting company when he was killed on Monday. The company had sent him to Ukraine, and he was being paid while he was fighting there, Cancel’s mother, REBECCA CABRERA, told CNN.” Per CNN: “Cancel, a former US Marine, according to his mother, signed up to work for the private military contracting company on top of his full-time job as a corrections officer in Tennessee shortly before the war in Ukraine broke out at the end of February, Cabrera said. When the war began, the company, according to Cabrera, was searching for contractors to fight in Ukraine and Cancel agreed to go, Cabrera said. “He wanted to go over because he believed in what Ukraine was fighting for, and he wanted to be a part of it to contain it there so it didn’t come here, and that maybe our American soldiers wouldn’t have to be involved in it,” Cabrera told CNN in a phone interview. NatSec Daily hasn’t been able to confirm the company Cancel worked for.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | NO TIGRAY WITHDRAWAL FROM AFAR, ETHIOPIA SAYS: On Monday, a spokesperson for the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Forces said fighters would withdraw from Ethiopia’s Afar region in hopes of allowing humanitarian aid to flow in. But spokesperson LEGESSE TULU of the Ethiopian government— which has been warring against those and other rebels since November 2020 — says it’s all “big lies.” As do others: “Afar Police Commissioner AHMED HARIF told Reuters on Thursday that Tigrayan forces were still in four districts bordering Tigray — Koneba, Abala, Berhale and Magale — and had not moved since Monday.” Desperately needed humanitarian assistance has barely made its way into Tigray, where more than 90 percent of people need food, Reuters noted. Still, since the Ethiopian government announced a unilateral cease-fire on March 25, Reuters reports “145 trucks have made it into Tigray, according to the U.N. World Food Programme. At least 100 per day are needed, the United Nations says.” FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– STATE TO PAY AFFECTED EMPLOYEES: The State Department is taking steps to give extra financial compensation to U.S. diplomats and others negatively affected by a faulty new payroll system, our own NAHAL TOOSI has learned. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN laid out the plans in a Friday email in which he described the ongoing payroll problems as “unacceptable.” “We will pay interest for any pay, allowance, or differential that has been delayed beyond 30 days due to the March 1, 2021, implementation of the payroll software system,” Blinken wrote in the email, obtained by POLITICO. “We will identify all U.S. direct hires, eligible family members, and personal services contractors to whom this applies. We expect to issue these interest payments directly to the accounts of affected employees beginning on June 2.” Blinken came close to an all-out apology for the situation, which has hurt even diplomats in war zones. The payroll problems began last year after the department transitioned to a new system that was supposed to be more streamlined and efficient. Instead, people started missing out on checks, among other headaches. Bringing the debacle to an end has been “an absolute focus for the Secretary,” a senior State Department official said. “I know how frustrated and angry many of you are by this. You absolutely deserve to be,” Blinken wrote. “I can promise that solving this is a top priority for us, that we’re focused on getting you the pay and leave you’ve earned, and that we’re doing all we can to make sure this doesn’t happen again.”
| | | CHINA ENDING TECH CRACKDOWN –– FOR NOW: China is taking a strategic pause, let’s call it, from its long-term campaign targeting technology companies in hopes of improving the country’s souring economic outlook. “Regulators are planning to hold off on new rules that limit the time young people spend on mobile apps … while another person said that Beijing is considering pushing some of its biggest tech companies to offer 1% equity stakes to the state and give the government a direct role in corporate decisions,” The Wall Street Journal’s KEITH ZHAI reported. “Any loosening of regulations for the tech sector would underscore the importance of economic stability for Chinese leader XI JINPING in a key political year in which he is expected to break with recent precedent and seek a third term in power.” It isn’t fully clear why Xi has pursued such a course. Some analysts suggest China wants to keep foreign intelligence services from spying on Chinese citizens and networks, while others fear the premier aims to consolidate control ahead of his “reelection.” But it appears now the economic cost is too much for Xi, leading to this momentary break. Few, though, believe it’ll be a permanent stop.
| | | NEW MOST EXPENSIVE FIGHTER? Here’s a lede to ponder: “The U.S. Air Force’s secretive Next Generation Air Dominance future fighter program could be the most expensive aircraft program in history, with each piloted, sixth-generation aircraft expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars,” Defense News’ STEPHEN LOSEY reported. “This is a number that’s going to get your attention,” Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL told HASC on Wednesday. “It’s going to be an expensive airplane.” Okay, but how expensive? Roughly $80 million a copy, or about twice as much as a single F-35 fighter jet, Losey notes. “It’s worth the time and the effort in the earlier phases of a program like NGAD to get those things right because you’re going to pay for what you did much later in sustainment, with much bigger dollars,” Kendall said. “And from what I’ve seen of the NGAD program so far, that approach has been taken.”
| | | |   | | | | | | ‘RAISE HELL’ AND ‘WATCH OUT’ ON F-35: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported that Rep. JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.), chair of HASC's readiness panel, warned on Thursday he’ll “raise hell” until operating costs for the F-35 fighter jet come down, including pushing for buying fewer planes and hauling contractors before his panel to testify. "The message from me, and I hope from my committee — and I know I'm going to raise hell in the full committee — is we're not going to buy more planes until we figure out how to maintain them," Garamendi said. "It is a fool's errand. It is a waste of money by the taxpayers. It's a bright shiny machine until it doesn't work." Garamendi also called out engine-maker Pratt & Whitney. "They're going to be before this committee soon," he said. "And if they're in the audience and if they're listening, watch out. I'm coming at you in a very angry mood. You gave us an engine and it doesn't work."
| | | ‘GET THE MIGS TO THE UKRAINIANS ALREADY’: “We don’t need an American-enforced no fly zone. The Ukrainians have lots of pilots — lots of airline pilots who are volunteering to fly the MiGs. Get the MiGs to the Ukrainians already. I mean this is ridiculous. And they can have their own no-fly zone. It’s not like they are going to fly over Russia. They want to fly over Ukraine.” That’s ROBERT O’BRIEN, then-President DONALD TRUMP ’s last national security adviser. He made that remark at a panel discussion on the U.S. role in the world hosted by The Bastion Institute at the Arizona Chamber of Commerce in Phoenix with Gov. DOUG DUCEY and Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), where our own BRYAN BENDER was in attendance. It’s another sign of the fierce criticism lobbed at European nations reluctant to send MiG-29s to Ukraine. Part of the initial hesitance was the Biden administration said they didn’t think sending the planes was worth the risk posed by the prospects of fierce Russian retaliation. U.S. officials continue to insist that the decision to transfer the warplanes is a choice left up to the countries fielding those aircraft. THE DHS ‘MINISTRY OF TRUTH’ TAKES FIRE: Criticisms of the Department of Homeland Security’s newly announced “Disinformation Governance Board” have picked up steam on the political right, with much of the ire directed at Executive Director NINA JANKOWICZ. “[I]t is not reassuring that the person running the effort … doubted the authenticity of Hunter Biden’s laptop and shared the assessments of others that it was Russian disinformation. She recently tweeted that her views on the laptop from that time are being oversimplified,” the National Review’s JIM GERAGHTY wrote Thursday. Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS told House lawmakers Wednesday that the board’s goal is to combat disinformation on irregular migration and Russia, among other subjects. Lawmakers like Sen. ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio), the top Republican on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs committee, were unmoved: “I do not believe that the United States government should turn the tools that we have used to assist our allies counter foreign adversaries onto the American people. Our focus should be on bad actors like Russia and China, not our own citizens.” Top pundits have weighed in. “So today, to herald the coming of the new Soviet America, the administration announced its own Ministry of Truth,” Fox News’ TUCKER CARLSON said on his Thursday night show. GLENN GREENWALD also piled on via Twitter: “That the Biden Admin casually announced today that the Dept of Homeland Security — a domestic security agency — has created a ‘disinformation’ board is indescribably dystopian and chilling. That Democrats think this is good and normal tells you all you need to know about them.” We asked a senior administration official about the brouhaha: "Ironically, this Board is designed to protect the freedom of speech that critics are falsely claiming it is attempting to trample,” the person told us. In a statement to NatSec Daily, a DHS spokesperson said: "DHS began its work on disinformation several years ago. The Department has created the Disinformation Governance Board to ensure this work does not infringe on the fundamental right of free speech and to further protect privacy, civil rights, and civil liberties. To provide this protection, the Board will coordinate the Department’s internal activities related to disinformation that poses a threat to homeland security.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | — NAND MULCHANDANI will serve as the CIA’s first-ever chief technology officer. He was recently the CTO for the Defense Department's Joint Artificial Intelligence Center and also co-founded and led multiple startups. — JAMES HOCKENHULL has been appointed to serve as Commander United Kingdom Strategic Command, succeeding Gen. Sir PATRICK SANDERS. Hockenhull is a lieutenant general in the British Army and currently serves as chief of Defence Intelligence. — ANNA GAWEL is now managing editor at Devex. She most recently was the managing editor of The Washington Diplomat and a part-time journalist for WTOP News.
| | | — ERIC TUCKER, The Associated Press: “Inside the TREVOR REED Deal: From Oval Office to Moscow Trip” — GEORGE WILL, The Washington Post: “Opinion: MIKE POMPEO Ponders Entering the Presidential Marathon” — AGNES CHANG, AMY QIN, ISABELLE QIAN and AMY CHANG CHIEN, The New York Times: “Under Lockdown in China”
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: “Priorities for the NATO Summit and Security in Europe— with ARVYDAS ANUŠAUSKAS, PHILIP M. BREEDLOVE, JAMES E. CARTWRIGHT, MICHAEL KOFMAN, AMY MACKINNON, CHRIS MURPHY, BARRY PAVEL, LEAH SCHEUNEMANN, CATHERINE SENDAK, THOM TILLIS, ALEXANDER VERSHBOW and CELESTE WALLANDER” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “Should the U.S. Overhaul Its Defense Strategy? — with BRYAN CLARK and MIKE ROGERS” — The Brookings Institution, 1 p.m.: “The Future of American Air Power — with REBECCA GRANT, FRANK KENDALL, KEVIN MICKEY, MIKE MOELLER, STEPHEN P. MUELLER and MICHAEL E. O’HANLON” — Federal Computer Week and SolarWinds, 2 p.m.: “ How Serious Is the Cybersecurity Threat Posed by the Current Geopolitical Climate? — with TIM BROWN, CHETRICE MOSLEY-ROMERO and ALEX TREADWAY” — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance , 2 p.m.: “ Open Source… Not the Same Old Conversation — with ELLEN MCCARTHY, MATT SCOTT and PATRICE TIBBS” — The Ploughshares Fund, 3 p.m.: “ Unmute Yourself: Peace Now on the Korean Peninsula! — with CHRISTINE AHN, EMMA BELCHER, ABIGAIL E. DISNEY and DEANN BORSHAY LIEM”
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