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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Christopher Miller, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Children walk among buildings destroyed during fighting in Mariupol, in territory under the government of the Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine, Wednesday, May 25, 2022. | AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Russia is increasingly trying to “Russify” areas of Ukraine under its control. Russian forces have occupied much of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions since President VLADIMIR PUTIN launched his all-out invasion of the country on Feb. 24. Now there are growing signs that the Kremlin boss is trying to turn them into Russian regions through intensified “Russification” efforts. One family from the ruined city of Mariupol in southeastern Donetsk region told NatSec Daily their harrowing story of being trapped underground for weeks while Russia bombed everything around them, and then being dragged through a “filtration camp” before being forcibly deported to Russia. They were lucky to be able to flee from there to safety in EU countries. But they recounted weeks of humiliation and abuse at the hands of Russian authorities. LYUDMILA DENISOVA , Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman, told POLITICO that Russia is systematically working to wipe out Ukrainian people and culture, and she provided information and documents she said were obtained by Ukrainian intelligence services proving Russia’s plan for this began even before Feb. 24. Kherson, one of Ukraine’s southern-most regions and a strategic swathe of territory that includes a large agriculture industry, touches both the Black and Azov seas, and serves as the gateway to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia forcibly annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Zaporizhzhia is an important industrial center with key manufacturing companies and iron mines. Occupied together, they also helped Russia form a land bridge from its mainland to annex Crimea. While the signs of Russification and creeping annexation of these territories by Russia have been present for weeks, moves this week raised serious alarms. First, Putin signed a decree on Wednesday that will simplify the procedure for Ukrainians in the occupied areas to obtain Russian citizenship, a process known as “passportization.” The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called this “a gross violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, norms and principles of international humanitarian law.” Ambassador of the European Union to Ukraine Matti Maasikas also blasted Russia’s effort, tweeting today that it is being done because of lack of support from the local Ukrainian population. “Russian occupation forces had to abandon all ideas of a ‘referendum’ in Kherson region due to the lack of any support. Why do they think that the now planned ‘passportizatsiya’ will have better uptake? And in any case, nobody will recognize any acts of that kind, ever,” he said. Another signal of Russia’s intentions for the region came today, with state-run propaganda outlet RIA Novosti saying that starting in June, salaries for government employees in Russia-occupied Kherson will be paid in rubles instead of the Ukrainian hryvnia. RIA quoted the Russian-installed leader of the region, ANDREI KLOCHKO, as saying that by making the switch, the region was “washing the hryvnia out of our circulation of financial resources.” Klochko said the “bi-currency system” of Ukrainian hryvnia and Russian rubles for most other businesses will remain in place for some time. Some businesses, including gas stations and pharmacies, have already begun accepting payments in rubles, according to RIA. Read Chris' full story here.
| | | ENTRAPMENT THE TACTIC IN UKRAINE’S EAST: Fighters in Ukraine’s east have turned to entrapment as a tactic to win battles. “As the war grinds across the rolling plains and forests of Eastern Ukraine, the maneuvering of troops has in large part evolved into attempts at entrapment,” reported The New York Times’ ANDREW KRAMER, even if that maneuver “comes with grave risks.” “The Russian strategy has been to use the blunt instrument of its army’s vast artillery to pound away at Ukrainian forces, making incremental gains in the Luhansk region of the Donbas. Military analysts and Western intelligence officials believe that Moscow’s forces would face brutal urban combat if they tried to fully capture Sievierodonetsk, and that they would struggle to mount an offensive deeper inside Ukraine,” he wrote. That worries Ukrainian troops who fear they’ll be encircled by Russian forces, thus unable to fully fight back and, eventually, win. “I try not to think about it,” Pvt. IVAN SICHKAR, a Ukrainian soldier, told Kramer. “If I think of being surrounded, there’s no time left to do anything else.” BLINKEN SPELLS OUT BIDEN’S CHINA STRATEGY: In his highly anticipated speech today outlining the administration’s policy toward China, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN described competing visions for the future of the international community, report Quint and our own PHELIM KINE. One was centered around Beijing’s increasingly aggressive and authoritarian one-party state, while the other was anchored by President JOE BIDEN ’s conception of a bulwark of allies committed to democracy and human rights. “China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it,” Blinken said at the George Washington University. “Beijing’s vision would move us away from the universal values that have sustained so much of the world’s progress over the past 75 years.” Blinken — who was previously scheduled to deliver his remarks on May 5, but was forced to postpone after testing positive for Covid-19 the previous day — went on to insist that the United States is not “looking for conflict or a new Cold War. To the contrary, we’re determined to avoid both.” He also invoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pledging that “even as [Putin’s] war continues, we will remain focused on the most serious long-term challenge to the international order — and that’s posed by the People’s Republic of China.” Sen. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.), chair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, applauded the administration’s strategy. “President Biden’s strategy recognizes that this competition must be rooted not in a naive expectation that we can change China’s government, but in the confidence that a strong America will be best able to defend its values and protect its interests,” Merkley said in a statement. STATE SPOX SAYS MASS SHOOTINGS COULD HURT U.S. STANDING: State Department spokesperson NED PRICE, a native Texan, addressed the Uvalde shooting from his Foggy Botton podium Wednesday, warning that the shooting at Robb Elementary School and other such gun massacres might reverberate around the globe and affect America’s reputation on the world stage. “We have the potential to set an example for the world that no country would wish to emulate,” Price told reporters at a news briefing, “and rather than be an object of envy, we have the potential to be a source of confusion, a source of disbelief for our closest friends and allies; worse yet, an object of pity, or in the case of competitors and adversaries, a source of schadenfreude, a source of — in some cases — glee.” The power of the United States’ example “has the potential to be our greatest asset,” Price continued. “On days like today, however, it’s that example, an example that the world is clearly watching, that will have implications for our standing. And we’re very mindful of that.” We asked our contacts on the National Security Council if they agree with Price’s sentiment, and the answer is unequivocal: Yes, mass shootings could hurt America’s prestige around the world. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | SANCTIONS BITING HARD IN RUSSIA: The West’s sanctions on Russia, and Russia’s response to them, have led to an economy that more and more resembles the days of the Soviet Union. “While it may be able to find new purveyors for some Western-made goods and components in friendly countries such as China and India, Russia is increasingly determined to make its own — returning to policies of import substitution that yielded a vast, if globally uncompetitive, industrial complex before the fall of the Berlin Wall,” The Washington Post’s ANTHONY FAIOLA and MARY ILYUSHINA reported. “Unable to secure spare parts from Western airplane manufacturers, for instance, the Russian aviation sector is facing a crisis,” they continued. “Ural Airlines, which has over 50 Airbus planes, has projected that it can safely fly them for only a few months before it will need to start ‘cannibalizing’ from other aircraft — permanently grounding some planes to strip them for parts. The low-cost airline Pobeda, part of the state-run Aeroflot group, has already reduced its fleet from 41 to 25 planes, using its grounded aircraft for ‘cannibalized’ parts.” This problem is popping up in multiple sectors: auto, cellular and more. It shows that Russia’s long-term economic outlook is extremely bleak — if it isn’t already.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | DOD: IMPROVE AI TO BEAT CHINA: The Pentagon’s top artificial intelligence official said the U.S. has more work to do to catch China. “It’s time for the Department of Defense to have a similar focus on using data to solve problems, to think about their problems through a data lens … overcoming the cultural obstacles to actually become a competitive enterprise that can outfight any opponent and has the same level of productivity and efficiency that we desire for our taxpayers,” Lt. Gen. MICHAEL GROEN said during a Tuesday afternoon virtual panel hosted by the Atlantic Council think tank . “Clearly, the competition is around us.” Per Cyberscoop’s SUZANNE SMALLEY, who covered the event, Groen made the case that “DOD must reinvent itself to meet the challenge, arguing that the Pentagon will need to do more to bring the branches together and act as a ‘doer’ instead of a coordinating body.” “Groen said China is now executing its 14th five-year plan to meet its goal for AI supremacy by 2030 while the U.S. is now building its 14th AI-based program objective memorandum (POM), which refers to how DOD allots future funding to meet its strategic objectives,” Smalley reported.
| | | |   | | | | | | NATO CHIEF PICK WANTS INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING: The nominee to lead U.S. forces in Europe and to be NATO's top commander told senators this morning that he supports members boosting their defense spending beyond the current goal as they seek to counter Russia, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reported (for Pros!). Testifying at his Senate confirmation hearing to be head of U.S. European Command and NATO supreme allied commander, Army Gen. CHRISTOPHER CAVOLI said he agrees with other senior officials that the goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, set by the 2014 Wales Pledge, should be "a floor, not a ceiling." "I am an advocate of spending more than 2 percent, at least 2 percent," Cavoli told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "I know all of the land forces chiefs in NATO. Each one of them has a list of requirements," he said in an exchange with Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.), who argues more U.S. resources should be spent on countering China. "The requirements would all take more than 2 percent of GDP." RACE FOR UKRAINE MONEY: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report that the race is on for defense companies and lobbyists to get a piece of the $20 billion in military assistance to Ukraine that Biden approved on Saturday. (One defense-industry official recently told NatSec Daily that it’s viewed as a “gold rush.”) Three lobbyists who represent defense companies tell our own LEE HUDSON that pitching new weapons is a matter of trial and error because there’s no requirements list. Typically, when the military buys a new product, it uses previously approved specifications. Bidders then offer a product or service that fits those needs. But the Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment on the status of more detailed information on what it is looking to buy for the Ukrainians. Most of the U.S. focus is on replenishing missile stocks instead of sending Ukraine cutting-edge technology, the lobbyists said. Non-traditional defense companies such as Clearview AI, Brinc Drones and Skydio are also donating equipment to Ukraine. Firms have already sent dozens of drones to combat the Russians. The Ukrainian government is also using Clearview AI’s facial recognition software to identify Russian soldiers.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SENATE GOP BLOCKS DOMESTIC TERRORISM BILL: In the wake of a recent racist shooting in Buffalo, N.Y. — and just days after the Uvalde massacre — Senate Republicans blocked House-passed legislation that would set up offices at the Justice Department, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security to focus on domestic terrorism, per our own MARIANNE LEVINE and ANDREW DESIDERIO. Republicans have adopted a slippery-slope argument in response to the domestic terrorism bill, contending it could be misused based on ideology to go after political opponents of the party in power. But Democrats are homing in on “replacement theory” — a racist far-right rallying cry cited by the Buffalo gunman — and seeking to use today’s debate as an opening to tackle gun violence. Frustrated by the lack of federal action in response to various hate crimes in recent years, Democrats note that all House Republicans supported a nearly identical domestic terrorism bill less than two years ago, when it passed by voice vote. SENATORS OPPOSE HUNGER AS WAR WEAPON: A bipartisan sextet of senators, including the top two members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, introduced a resolution condemning the use of hunger as a weapon of war. While mostly symbolic, the key part is the lawmakers want to target those who employ hunger in war with the Magnitsky Act and/or other human rights-related actions. “We must use all the tools we have to hold those who commit such actions accountable,” Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) said in a statement. He was joined by Sens. Merkley, CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.), JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.), BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and JAMES RISCH (R-Idaho). This measure follows a similar bipartisan resolution introduced by Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) in the House. DEM LAWMAKERS: END MASAFER YATTA EVICTIONS: The U.S. should push Israel to stop the evictions of more than 1,000 Palestinians from their homes in Masafer Yatta, 81 lawmakers — 19 from the Senate and 62 from the House, all Democrats or left-leaning independents — wrote to SecState Blinken today. “As supporters of a strong U.S.-Israel relationship, we believe such evictions undermine our shared democratic values, imperil Israel's security, and disregard Palestinian human and civil rights,” they wrote. “We respectfully request that you immediately engage with the Israeli government to prevent these evictions and further military training exercises in the area. We further ask that you encourage the Israeli government to approve master plans for the villages in Masafer Yatta so that these Palestinian communities may build and maintain homes, schools, infrastructure, and sustain their agricultural and pastoral lands.” The evictions have already begun, about a month before Biden visits Israel in late June. The Washington Post’s STEVE HENDRIX and SHIRA RUBIN wrote about the incident on Sunday: “‘We had 30 minutes to get out what we could,’ said YUSARA AL-NAJJAR , who was born in a hand-hewn cave on this same slope in the Negev desert 60 years ago. She looked over the pile of broken blocks and twisted metal that had been her family home and wiped her hands with a slap. ‘It took no time and our house was gone, again.’”
| | | SENATORS HIT ADMIN OVER AFGHAN VS. UKRAINIAN TREATMENT: Several Democratic senators are slamming the Biden administration for what they say are profound discrepancies in how the United States treats Afghans and Ukrainians fleeing their countries, our own NAHAL TOOSI wrote in. In short, Ukrainians seem to be having an easier time than Afghans obtaining what’s known as “humanitarian parole” in the United States, and the senators want to know why. In a letter to Biden and two of his top aides , the eight lawmakers offer statistics to back up their concerns. For instance, they point out that the Uniting for Ukraine program recently announced by the administration appears to be far easier to maneuver than the programs Afghans need to navigate. “While we welcome this new and flexible approach for handling the large influx of Ukrainian parole applications, it stands in stark contrast to the manner in which the high volume of Afghan applications — 43,000 since July 2021, most still unadjudicated — are being handled, subjecting Afghans to a longer and more costly process, with a higher burden of proof,” the letter states. “The United States has approved only 270 Afghans for humanitarian parole, denying more than 2,000 applications. On the other hand, as of May 2022, nearly 6,000 Ukrainians who had applied through U4U had been granted humanitarian parole.” Among other things, the lawmakers note that “unlike U4U petitioners who, according to the USCIS announcement pay no fee to apply for parole (or will have any fee they paid refunded), Afghan parole petitioners are charged a $575 fee — an immense sum of money for nationals of a country with a median per-capita income of $378.” A senior Biden administration official said the comparison between the two groups was not a sound one, raising different legal and processing issues. The official noted that, via a major airlift last August, more than 70,000 Afghans have reached the United States and that the United States is “continuing to actively welcome Afghans” through multiple programs. ZELENSKYY SLAMS LAND FOR PEACE SWAP: The Ukrainian government continues to pound HENRY KISSINGER for suggesting Kyiv swap land for peace with Russia — and now Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is weighing in. “I get the sense that instead of the year 2022, Mr. Kissinger has 1938 on his calendar,” he said in a video address Wednesday night . “And that he thought he was addressing an audience not in Davos, but in erstwhile Munich.” OLEKSIY ARESTOVYCH, an adviser to Zelenskyy, add his own comments: “Get lost with suggestions of this sort, that Ukraine should trade some of its territory,” Mr. Arestovych said. “Children are dying here, soldiers are stopping shrapnel with their own bodies, and they’re telling us to sacrifice territory. It will never happen.” U.S.-based experts NatSec Daily has spoken with also bash Kissinger’s proposal, but from the perspective that it’s Ukraine’s decision on what to do to end the war. It’s still the early days of the war, they add, noting there’s a chance Russia at some point has no choice but to pack up and get out.
| | | — ANGELA PRICE AGGELER has been nominated to serve as U.S. Ambassador to North Macedonia; MARIE DAMOUR has been nominated to serve as U.S. Ambassador to Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Tonga and Tuvalu; MARK LIBBY has been nominated to serve as U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan; and GAUTAM RANA has been nominated to serve as U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia. Aggeler previously served as the deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad. Damour currently serves as consul general of the U.S. Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Libby currently serves as a State Department faculty adviser at the National War College. Rana currently serves as deputy chief of mission of the U.S. Embassy in Algeria. — AMY CONROY is now head of international government affairs at Shell U.S.A. She most recently was international government affairs manager for Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East at Chevron.
| | | — BOB DAVIS, POLITICO Magazine: “A Forecasting Model Used by the CIA Predicts a Surprising Turn in U.S.-China Relations” — ADAM TAYLOR, AMANDA COLETTA and JENNIFER HASSAN, The Washington Post: “How Countries Around the World Have Responded to Mass Shootings” — AKBAR SHAHID AHMED, HuffPost: “Biden’s Top Middle East Adviser ‘Torched The House And Showed Up With A Firehose’”
| | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “At a Crossroads: Finland’s Perspectives on Transatlantic Security — with MAX BERGMANN and PEKKA HAAVISTO” — The U.S. Naval Academy, 10 a.m.: “Class of 2022 Graduation” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: “ China’s Entrenched Inequality Problem: A Big Data China Event — with MARY GALLAGHER, MARY E. LOVELY, ILARIA MAZZOCCO, SCOTT ROZELLE and MARTIN K. WHYTE” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: “Modernization Priorities for the Australian Army — with CHARLES EDEL, TOM KARAKO and SIMON STUART” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who also isn’t looking to launch a Cold War against us.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
