|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Nahal Toosi, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Finland's Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto speaks during a media conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Monday, Jan. 24, 2022. | Olivier Matthys/AP Photo | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Programming note: We’ll be off this Monday for Memorial Day but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. Finland is qualified, determined and eager to join NATO — and the foreign minister would like Washington to put its foot on the gas. In an interview with NatSec Daily during his visit to Washington this week, PEKKA HAAVISTO expressed optimism that Finland and Sweden will be welcomed into the political-military alliance. But given objections from some corners — namely Turkey — the process is taking longer than Finland had hoped, and that comes with some risk, Haavisto noted. “For us, it’s a little bit problematic if it’s [a] very long period between our application and the final decision — this kind of ‘gray time.’” he said. “Anyone who wants to harm this kind of process could benefit from the long waiting time, and all kinds of tricks could be happening during that time.… For us, the rapid timetable would be more safe in these circumstances.” He avoided specifics, but the meaning was obvious: Finland shares an 800-mile border with Russia, whose invasion of Ukraine is what led Finland and Sweden to decide to join NATO. The Kremlin could undermine the two countries’ NATO membership plans simply by staging an incursion: the military alliance doesn’t tend to admit countries engaged in conflict partly because of questions about whether the alliance’s mutual defense clause applies. For now, the Finnish-Russian border is calm. “We don’t feel threatened at the moment,” Haavisto said. Moscow also has taken to deemphasizing the importance of Finland and Sweden’s push to enter NATO. Plus, the United States and United Kingdom have offered Finland “security assurances” during this waiting period, though it’s unclear exactly what that would translate into. Haavisto also downplayed Russia’s recent decision to cut off gas supplies to Finland, noting it made up a small percentage of his country’s energy use and that it was already moving to make up through other sources. All that said, Haavisto indicated that in talks with U.S. officials — he saw Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN today — he’s expressing gratitude while also asking for additional support in ensuring the membership process moves quickly. While he didn’t offer specifics about what he’d like to see Washington do, the rocky U.S.-Turkish relationship won’t make it easy. “We know that the U.S. cannot do miracles,” Haavisto acknowledged. (Blinken noted during a press conference with Haavisto that the United States is in touch with the Turks, as are Finland and Sweden themselves.) One reason Haavisto is optimistic is the strong support he’s heard from American leaders across the political spectrum for Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids. Haavisto met several U.S. lawmakers on this trip, and some told him they hope to visit Finland soon. Among the senators, Haavisto met was Sen. RAND PAUL, a Kentucky Republican who’s skeptical of NATO expansion. Haavisto described the talk as “good” and “interesting” but said he didn’t push Paul too hard.
| | | U.S. MAY SEND LONG-RANGE ROCKET SYSTEMS TO UKRAINE: After weeks of debate, the Biden administration is inching toward sending Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems that leaders in Kyiv have been pleading for since the Russian invasion, though no final decision has been made, two U.S. officials tell our own PAUL MCLEARY and LARA SELIGMAN. Neither President JOE BIDEN nor Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has approved the next batch of aid for Ukraine — the first of the $40 billion package signed off by POTUS last week — but a new shipment of weapons and aid should be announced in the coming days. That could include the U.S.-made Multiple Launch Rocket System and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, both of which outrage current Ukrainian artillery. “No long-range strike weapons are being considered” as part of the package, one administration official cautioned. Instead, the U.S. is weighing supplying rockets that can travel roughly between 20 to 45 miles, further than the shells fired by the M777 howitzers sent to Ukraine in May — but less than the full capability of the MLRS and HMARS. Still, that extra range would be critical in the artillery duels between Ukrainian and Russian forces raging across Donbas today, which show no sign of abating. RUSSIA MAKES GAINS IN EAST: Russia is having more success in Ukraine’s east than it found trying to overtake Kyiv by storm, taking the city of Lyman and currently battling for control of Severodonetsk, The Wall Street Journal’s VIVIAN SALAMA and YAROSLAV TROFIMOV reported. “The situation is threatening and will soon become catastrophic,” a senior Ukrainian official told them Friday. “While Ukrainian forces operate Soviet-designed Smerch and Uragan long-range MLRS, they are running critically low on ammunition, which isn’t readily available for resupply,” Salama and Trofimov wrote, adding that “Ukrainian officials said the troops that pulled out of Lyman had been attacked with barrages from thermobaric TOS-1 MLRS batteries.” It’s an increasingly dire picture for Ukraine out east as Russia moves to consolidate gains and legitimacy in the south. The first wave of the Russian campaign failed spectacularly. And while the eastern and southern campaigns aren’t going smoothly, Moscow’s forces are faring far better in this new phase of the invasion. HOW THE U.S. COUNTERED RUSSIA: Even though Russia feinted that it would invade Ukraine in early 2021, SecState Blinken and U.S. officials made clear to their counterparts that they had to prepare for the real thing, DAVID IGNATIUS reported in a new Washington Post op-ed. Getting Germany on board was crucial. “Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor ANGELA MERKEL that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, OLAF SCHOLZ , kept the promise. By avoiding a crisis with Germany early on, Blinken said, ‘the net result was that the foundation was in place when the Russians went ahead with the aggression,’” he wrote. Meanwhile: “NATO military planning accelerated along with the diplomacy. Air Force Gen. TOD WOLTERS, the NATO commander, told me that his colleagues began preparing in December and January the ‘ground lines of communication’ that would allow rapid shipment of arms into Ukraine.” And then this: “U.S. intelligence provided Ukraine with a preview of Putin’s battle plan…The Russians planned to seize Antonov Airport in Hostomel, west of the capital, and then use it to quickly pump troops into Kyiv. The Ukrainians knew the Russians were coming. [CIA Director WILLIAM] BURNS had secretly traveled to Kyiv in January to brief [Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ] Zelenskyy on the Russian plan, according to two knowledgeable officials.” It should be noted that there’s quite a bit of revisionism going on here: The Biden administration spent a year trying to build a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia and then pursued an ill-fated attempt to come to some sort of diplomatic agreement. It didn’t all go swimmingly, to say the least. But it’s still worth getting the administration side of events, as relayed to Ignatius: The U.S. spent much of last year gathering intelligence, sharing and discussing it with allies, directly warning Russia and preparing for the worst. That allowed the U.S. and allies to move expeditiously once Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN made the decision to invade. IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Connecting multi-domain assets and evolving our Common Source Library to an Integrated Combat System
Warfighters need unmatched technology solutions to own the fight and maintain mission advantage. Lockheed Martin is leveraging digital transformation to increase speed and effectiveness and stay ahead of rapidly evolving global threats. Learn more. | | | | | | BREAKING: The U.S. Navy is “looking into” reports that Iran seized two Greek oil tankers, per The Associated Press . Outgoing Pentagon chief spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said the U.S. had no further information at this time. CHINA AND RUSSIA VETO NORTH KOREA SANCTIONS: For the first time since 2006, Russia and China opted to block new United Nations sanctions on North Korea. Neither country blocked any of the last nine sanctions packages, leading to some confidence that Moscow and Beijing wouldn’t stop a new round of sanctions after Pyongyang’s multiple ballistic missile tests that violate U.N. resolutions. But apparently past is not prologue anymore, and they did so Thursday — claiming that dialogue, not more punishment, is required to convince North Korea to part with its nuclear weapons and missiles. The move received a harsh rebuke from America’s U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD. "The vetoes today are dangerous. Those members today have taken a stance that not only undermines the Security Council's previous action to which they have committed but also undermines our collective security," she said. “These council members have decided to shield a proliferator from facing the consequences of its actions and they have demonstrated the worthlessness of their word by giving an explicit nod of approval to the [North Korea]." On Friday, the U.S. announced its own new sanctions on North Korea, targeting one individual, two banks and a trading company for their support of Pyongyang’s ever-improving arsenal. North Korea tested intercontinental ballistic missiles while Biden was in Asia this week, and it’s widely expected that it’s preparing its seventh nuclear test.
| | | SPACE FORCE’S NEW CYBER SQUAD: The Space Force’s Delta 6, which protects American satellites from cyberattack, is adding four new squadrons this summer, Breaking Defense’s THERESA HITCHENS reported. “The way we’re organizing is we’ll have a sovereign squadron for each mission area, and a delta is assigned to a mission area,” Delta 6 Commander Col. ROY ROCKWELL told the Space Force Association Thursday. “Each of those deltas, outside of Delta 6 and 7, will have a cyber squadron assigned to protect those mission systems in their mission area.” “We’re looking at this from taking what we’re calling mission defense teams that provide passive defense, but then also giving them the abilities to provide response. What that means is they will be a persistent [cyber protection team] on the mission system that our space operators operate,” he continued. In English, this means the Space Force will allow these teams both to protect and attack as needed — making the service arguably the most aggressive when it comes to defense in cyberspace.
| | | NEW AUTONOMOUS RULES: The Defense Department is updating its guidance on autonomous weapons, Breaking Defense’s VALERIE INSINNA and AARON MEHTA reported. “Autonomy and AI are not the exact same thing,” MICHAEL HOROWITZ, the Pentagon’s director of emerging capabilities policy, told them in an interview. “But given the growing importance that AI plays, and thinking about the future of war and the way the department has been thinking about AI, I think ensuring that’s reflected in the directive seems to make sense.” The U.S. currently doesn’t operate an autonomous system — and, no, drones don’t count. What Horowitz is talking about are systems that operate without human control, unlike remotely piloted UAVs or pre-programmed Switchblades. The goal of the guidance update is to ensure the new directive meets today’s standards for if and when the U.S. military fields such weapons. “[W]e want to make sure, of course, that the directive still reflects the views of the department and the way the department should be thinking about [autonomous] weapon systems,” Horowitz continued. “You know, it has been a decade. And it’s entirely plausible that there are some updates and clarifications that would be helpful.” THESE SHIPS CAN’T BEAT CHINA: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report that the Navy’s top admiral wants to hand off nine Freedom-class littoral combat ships to countries in South America for use in counter-drug operations, an attempt to close the book on a messy chapter in naval history. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. MIKE GILDAY told SASC Thursday that the Freedom-class ships lack “sufficient warfighting capability against a peer competitor in China.” It’s why the Navy recommended scrapping the nine hulls as part of a wider 24-ship retirement proposal in its 2023 budget submission. The problems with the Freedom-class hulls have been legion, including propulsion issues that limited ship speed and the fact that the Navy never found a way to get the Raytheon-made anti-submarine warfare package to function as planned.
| | | |   | | | | | | HOUSE DEM WANTS HUNGARY SANCTIONS: The U.S. should weigh sanctioning Hungary, a NATO ally, so that the European Union’s Russian oil ban can proceed, Rep. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) wrote to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. “I am particularly concerned about Hungary’s continued opposition to the EU oil embargo, and I urge you to consider all tools including sanctions to secure a final deal with Hungary to ban Russian oil,” the House Intelligence Committee member suggested in the letter sent Thursday. Hungary, which is largely reliant on Russian energy, has repeatedly blocked efforts to impose the ban and even wants the subject struck from next week’s EU leaders’ summit. Without Budapest on board, the bloc can’t further cut ties to Moscow’s energy sector — maintaining the Kremlin’s grip on some parts of Europe.
| | | HOUSE DEMS SLAM BIDEN’S SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS HANDLING: The Biden administration erred by not inviting Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to next month’s Summit of the Americas, three House Democrats argued in a Thursday letter to Biden. “[W]e feel strongly that excluding countries could jeopardize future relations throughout the region and put some of the ambitious policy proposals your administration launched under Build Back Better World at risk,” Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote alongside Reps. JIM McGOVERN (D-Mass.) and BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.). “If we are truly committed to addressing the complex regional challenges we face together as a hemisphere, the Summit must be inclusive in many ways, including we engage as good-faith negotiators with countries who do not share our views.” Their further worry is that countries that do have good relations with the U.S., namely Mexico, won’t attend the event, thus weakening bilateral ties with them. “An invitation for Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to participate in this year’s Summit is not an endorsement of those countries’ visions or ideologies. It is an invitation for engagement at a regional level that should be extended to every country in the Americas,” they concluded. We asked the White House if this letter, among other pressure, will lead the administration to send invitations to the summit. We got no response.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — ABDUL SANEE has started work as an analyst at the Defense Department. He most recently was a legislative correspondent for Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.). — CAROL EGGERT, DARYL KEITHLEY and D. MICHAEL KOPP have been appointed as civilian aides to Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH. Eggert is senior vice president of military and veteran affairs at Comcast NBCUniversal. Keithley is a recruiter with the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department. Kopp is president and CEO of the Colorado Concern business alliance. — Common Defense has hired JOANNA SWEATT as organizing director, JACOB THOMAS as communications director, SOPHIA-HELENE MEES DE TRICHT as national membership manager and CARRIE FRAIL as program associate for the Veterans Organizing Institute. Sweatt most recently was national field manager for Common Defense. Thomas has organized and volunteered with Common Defense for the past five years. Mees de Tricht has eight years of experience in management and organizing, and has been involved in political organizing for five years. Frail has worked in the defense contracting arena for more than eight years, transitioning into advocacy and holistic service spaces. — KATE KIZER is joining the Center for International Policy as a senior non-resident to cover U.S. national security policy. Kizer was previously the policy director for Win Without War.
| | | — CASEY MICHEL, The Atlantic: “Decolonize Russia” — PHIL KLAY, The New York Times: “ Opinion: America Kills Our Enemies in Our Name. And Then Keeps It Secret.” — JOAQUIN SAPIEN and JOSHUA KAPLAN, ProPublica: “How the U.S. Has Struggled to Stop the Growth of a Shadowy Russian Private Army”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — The Stimson Center and the Washington Foreign Law Society, 10 a.m.: “Cyber Norms, Law and Accountability: Roads to Progress? — with MICHELE MARKOFF, ALLISON PYTLAK, KATITZA RODRIGUEZ and MICHAEL TEODORI” — The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 10:30 a.m.: “Why the Bipartisan Innovation Act is Crucial for U.S. National Security — with MICHAEL BROWN, STEPHEN EZELL, ARTHUR HERMAN and JOHN ‘JACK’ N.T. SHANAHAN” — The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: “Energy Security and Oil Sanctions: A Transatlantic Balancing Act? — with EDWARD FISHMAN, DANIEL FRIED, RICHARD L. MORNINGSTAR, BRIAN O’TOOLE and ELLEN R. WALD” — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: “ Embracing Zero Trust: Protecting Data in a Remote World — with GEORGE JACKSON, LEAH MCGRATH, JOEL PERKINS and VINCENT SRITAPAN” — The Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: “A Conversation with Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH on the Army’s Role in the National Defense Strategy — with MICHAEL ANDERSSON, JANE HOLL LUTE and VIVIAN SALAMA” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who wouldn’t trust us with a rocket system of any range.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Leveraging digital transformation to get Integrated Combat Systems capability to the fleet faster
Working with the U.S. Navy, Lockheed Martin is digitally transforming Aegis – using DevSecOps, Model Based System Engineering and Virtualization, plus third-party partnerships to meet the rapidly evolving needs of the fleet. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
