SCOOP: Pelosi to visit Armenia

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Thursday Sep 15,2022 07:58 pm
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By Alexander Ward

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks at her weekly news conference on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022, in Washington, D.C. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo

With help from Lawrence Ukenye and Daniel Lippman

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Speaker NANCY PELOSI will continue her streak of dramatic foreign travel when she arrives in Armenia this weekend, even as a Russia-brokered ceasefire failed to contain deadly fighting with Azerbaijan.

The planned trip, first reported by NatSec Daily, will come after a stop in Berlin for the G-7 Speakers’ Summit. She’ll be joined in Yerevan by Rep. JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.) for a meeting with Prime Minister NIKOL PASHINYAN and other government officials.

With the midterms approaching — and the possibility that she will lose the gavel if Republicans return to the majority — the belief in Washington is that Pelosi wants to cement her legacy as a champion of human rights, not only in the United States but around the world. It was only a month ago that Pelosi stood in Taiwan’s capital to support its democracy amid China’s aggressive behavior. Speier, meanwhile, is one of a handful of Armenian-American lawmakers in Congress.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a bloody, decadeslong feud over Nagorno-Karabakh, the territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but populated with ethnic Armenians. Two years ago, they fought their second big war over the contested land, leading to thousands dead and more regional power for Baku.

Violence erupted again last weekend, with officials in both capitals blaming the other for attacking first. More than 170 soldiers on both sides have been killed in skirmishes over the past few days, officials in Yerevan and Baku claim.

Russia said it had brokered a cease-fire Tuesday, but it was short-lived and violence continued into Wednesday.

Pelosi’s visit will mean a lot to the Armenian-American community, which has called for more political focus on the crisis. “Armenia has not received the kind of attention Ukraine has received, and this will shine a light on a country crossing an international border in violation of international law,” said ANTHONY BARSAMIAN, co-chair of the Armenian Assembly of America.

Read the full story.

 

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The Inbox

‘MASSIVE GLOBAL FAILURE’: An independent panel of experts said that the world’s response to the Covid-19 virus proved “a massive global failure,” leading to the pandemic that killed millions, upended the economy and disrupted everyday life.

“This staggering death toll is both a profound tragedy and a massive global failure at multiple levels. Too many governments have failed to adhere to basic norms of institutional rationality and transparency, too many people — often influenced by misinformation — have disrespected and protested against basic public health precautions, and the world’s major powers have failed to collaborate to control the pandemic,” the experts wrote in The Lancet, saying that there were 17.7 million excess deaths due to the inadequate global response.

“Additionally, at the national level, many governments showed themselves to be untrustworthy and ineffective. At the global level, cooperation among governments was undermined by rancour among the major powers. This hostility gravely weakened the capacity of international institutions such as WHO to conduct their assigned roles in the pandemic response,” the experts continued.

Read: POLITICO’s ERIN BANCO, ASHLEIGH FURLONG and LENNART PFAHLER big story on how four private groups used their power to control the Covid response with little oversight.

PUTIN PRAISES CHINA, HITS U.S. IN XI MEETING: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN welcomed China’s “balanced position” on the war in Ukraine during a meeting with XI JINPING in Uzbekistan Thursday.

"We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis," Putin said. "We understand your questions and concern about this. During today's meeting, we will of course explain our position."

He also asserted that the U.S. was to blame for recent tensions over Taiwan: "We condemn provocations by the United States and their satellites in the Taiwan Strait."

The closely watched meeting was Xi’s first outside of China since the start of the pandemic. While there’s still no evidence that China is providing direct economic or military support for Russia’s war, Xi is clearly providing some political cover for Putin by displaying bonhomie between the two.

"China will work with Russia to extend strong mutual support on issues concerning each other’s core interests, and deepen practical cooperation in trade, agriculture, connectivity and other areas," China’s Foreign Ministry said.

EO ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT SECURITY: President JOE BIDEN today signed the first executive order since the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States was founded in 1975, mandating that additional national security factors be considered before the body approves a transaction.

The five new factors include if the investment affects the resilience of U.S. supply chains; impacts U.S. technological leadership; is part of a trend to negatively impact U.S. national security; poses a cybersecurity risk; and/or could compromise the personal data of Americans.

“Strengthening our supply chains and protecting against foreign threats enhances our national security, and this Executive Order highlights CFIUS’s important role in that work. It also reaffirms CFIUS’s mission to protect America’s technological leadership and the security of our citizens’ sensitive data from emerging threats,” said Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN, who chairs the review body.

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
Flashpoints

IRAN SANCTIONS OVER RUSHDIE?: The Biden administration is considering placing sanctions on elements of Iran’s regime for encouraging the attack on author SALMAN RUSHDIE, the Wall Street Journal’s BENOIT FAUCON and IAN TALLEY reported.

No decisions have yet been made, but WSJ noted some potential targets.

“The 15th Khordad Foundation in Iran is a charitable organization operating under the supervision of the Office of the Supreme Leader. It put a bounty of about $2.5 million on Mr. Rushdie’s head in 1997, raising it to $2.8 million in late 1998 and then again to $3.3 million in 2012,” Faucon and Talley wrote. “Iranian media organizations, including the semiofficial Fars news agency, have also publicly pledged to contribute to the bounty. In 2016, 40 Iranian state-run news outlets added $600,000 to the bounty for the killing of Mr. Rushdie, the organizer of a digital technology exhibition at which the money was announced said in a statement on its website.”

The sanctions would make it harder for such organizations to receive donations and send funds abroad.

U.S., EU HIT TURKEY OVER RUSSIA SANCTIONS: The U.S. and European Union are putting pressure on Turkey to curb Russia’s sanctions evasion, saying Moscow is using the NATO ally’s banking sector for illicit activity.

“The US is focusing on Turkish banks that have integrated into Mir, Russia’s domestic payments system, two western officials involved in the plans told the [Financial Times], as Brussels prepares a delegation to express its concerns to Turkish officials directly,” HENRY FOY, SAM FLEMING, JAMES POLITI and LAURA PITEL reported. ”Five of Turkey’s largest banks, VakıfBank, Ziraat Bank, İş Bank, DenizBank and Halkbank, are members of the Mir payment system, which was developed by Russia’s central bank as a domestic alternative to Visa and Mastercard.”

Western countries have in recent weeks turned toward enforcing existing sanctions instead of placing new ones on Russia. “You’re going to see us kind of focus on financial sector evasion,” one of the Western officials said.

Keystrokes

EU CYBER LAW: The European Union is weighing a new cybersecurity law that would protect all devices on the Internet of Things, everything from “smart” toys to refrigerators.

Under the Cyber Resilience Act, “[m]anufacturers of digitally connected products would have to meet new EU requirements, whether the products are produced in the EU or not. The act would ensure products carrying the CE marking meet a minimum level of cybersecurity checks. Sensitive products running afoul of the rulebook face fines of up to €15 million, or 2.5 percent of worldwide turnover, whichever is higher,” POLITICO’s ANTOANETA ROUSSI reported.

An annex attached to the legislation lays out how two categories: one for critical products, which will cover about 10 percent of the market; and a second category that will cover everything else. For low-risk products, the European Commission will ask companies to perform a self-assessment, indicating that a product meets cybersecurity standards. For critical products that present a significant cybersecurity risk, a manufacturer will have to prove they meet the requirements to a national authority or through a third-party assessment.

The Complex

CAN’T BUILD MORE SHIPS: U.S. shipbuilders are not in a position to increase ship production in the coming years to meet congressional requests, Chief Naval Operations Adm. MIKE GILDAY said Wednesday, per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!).

“Right now, we are not at a point where the industrial base is supporting three destroyers a year,” Gilday told an event hosted by Defense One. “Right now, there’s somewhere between two and two and a half. And so we want to make sure if we’re going to put that money down against shipbuilding, that the capacity is actually there so that money is well spent.”

When it comes to the frigate program, Gilday is looking at building “at least two to three a year once that production line gets rolling” by 2026. Still, he conceded that the defense industrial base “right now is strained.… That skilled manual labor force is something that those companies are laser-focused on today to grow that talent and sustain it.”

JAVELIN CONTRACT: The Army awarded the Javelin Joint Venture between Raytheon Missiles and Defense and Lockheed Martin $331 million to deliver 1,800 Javelin missiles that would replace the ones sent to Ukraine.

We did the math so you don’t have to: That’s more than $180,000 a piece.

“To date, the Javelin Joint Venture has produced more than 50,000 Javelin missiles and more than 12,000 reusable Command Launch Units. Javelin is expected to remain in the U.S. weapon arsenal until 2050 and is subject to continual upgrades to support evolving operational needs,” reads a Pentagon release.

 

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On the Hill

NEW TAIWAN BILL: Legislation that would overhaul U.S. policy toward Taiwan easily cleared a powerful Senate committee on Wednesday, the latest chapter in the swift congressional response to China’s increasingly belligerent threats to the self-governing island, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reported.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the Taiwan Policy Act, which complements the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, by a vote of 17-5. The bill is aimed at boosting Taiwan’s ability to defend itself militarily against a potential Chinese invasion while deepening symbolic U.S.-Taiwan ties that Beijing has blasted as a reversal of the status quo.

But Senators made clear during the hearing that the bill does not change U.S. policy. Rather, said the panel’s top Republican, Sen. JIM RISCH of Idaho, the legislation “gives [Chinese leader] XI JINPING reasons to think twice about invading Taiwan.”

Broadsides

RUSSIA DRAWS ‘RED LINE’: Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the U.S. delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine was a “red line” the Biden administration shouldn’t cross.

"If Washington decides to supply longer-range missiles to Kyiv, then it will be crossing a red line, and will become a direct party to the conflict," Foreign Ministry spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA told reporters in a Thursday briefing.

The statement comes after NatSec Daily and other outlets published Ukraine’s weapons wish list for the war, which included ATACMS, missiles that can be launched from HIMARS and fly up to 186 miles. The Biden administration has already ruled out their transfer to Kyiv, so it seems like Moscow is letting Washington know that it should keep its promise — or else.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– LAWSUIT AGAINST RAISI: Iranian dissidents and former hostages are launching a federal civil case in the Southern District of New York against Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI, NatSec Daily has learned.

The suit comes just ahead of the U.N. General Assembly which will attract dozens of world leaders, including Raisi. The plaintiffs will say that Iran violated the Torture Victim Protection Act by torturing, assaulting and falsely imprisoning people.

The plaintiffs include former Shiraz City Councilor MEHDI HAJATI and former hostages KYLIE MOORE-GILBERT and HAMID BABEI. They plan to hold a press conference at 9 a.m. on Tuesday at a private club in midtown — the day before Raisi’s UNGA speech.

Transitions

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ADIL AHMED has started as chief counsel to FEC Vice-Chair DARA LINDENBAUM . He is a day one appointee in the Biden-Harris administration where he most recently served as special counsel for the U.S. Army. (h/t DANIEL LIPPMAN)

 

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What to Read

RAVI AGRAWAL, Foreign Policy: LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD on Russia, China, and the U.N. General Assembly

CONOR FRIEDERSDORF, The Atlantic: King CHARLES Should Get Ready to Abdicate

E. TAMMY KIM, New Yorker: China and the Lore of American Manufacturing

Tomorrow Today

— The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 8 a.m.: 2022 Intelligence and National Security Summit

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: "Strengthening Somalia's Security."

— The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: "Business Unusual: A Rapidly Changing World Calls for Adapting Peacebuilding in Africa”

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: "Unpacking Italy's Political Future"

— The Center for a New American Security, 11 a.m.: "Russia in the Arctic."

— RAND Corporation, 1 p.m.: A Conversation about Biodefense with Experts and House Intelligence Committee Member BRAD WENSTRUP

— The Wilson Center, 3:30 p.m.: Jordan and the United States: A Conversation with Jordan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs H.E. AYMAN SAFADI

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to my editor, Ben Pauker, who has never held a “balanced position” in his life.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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