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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary, Maggie Miller, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson | | 
“If Russians would like to try our defenses, we must be ready, therefore we are in early negotiations to purchase coastal defense missile systems from the United States, and in the near future also medium-range air defense systems,” Latvia's Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said. | Petr David Josek/AP Photo | With help from Lawrence Ukenye Subscribe here | Email Alex RIGA, Latvia — When NatSec Daily arrived in Latvia on Monday, your host expected to find a country in full-blown panic. Even though Russia has struggled in Ukraine, it showed itself willing to invade and provoke beyond reason, leading to the concern that the Baltics might be Moscow’s next target. But after a day of meetings with Latvian officials, organized and sponsored by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, what NatSec Daily has found is a country with a sense of ever-present danger, but currently no feeling of imminent crisis. “There is an urgency,” Latvian Defense Minister ARTIS PABRIKS said over dinner. Here’s the message: Russia will learn from its mistakes in Ukraine and regroup. While there may not be a military danger on Latvia’s border today, Riga must be alert and ready. “War in Ukraine won’t weaken Russia so much that they can’t threaten us.” But today, NatSec Daily didn’t hear any Latvian official suggest that Russia would be willing to risk a war against a NATO ally. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN couldn’t be that brazen even if he wanted to today — but things change. This sense of feeling generally threatened, but not immediately in existential peril, explains how officials talk about the country’s military needs. Riga wants HIMARS and NASAMS, but understands that supply-chain issues will delay the refill of stocks Latvia emptied out to help Ukraine. There’s also acceptance that a Canadian-led battalion stationed in Latvia won’t be fully formed for another three to five years. And conscription will start next year to beef up the country’s forces, though planning remains underway on how to house and support thousands of new troops. Still, officials here will continue to press their American colleagues for more assistance before it is too late. “If Russians would like to try our defenses, we must be ready, therefore we are in early negotiations to purchase coastal defense missile systems from the United States, and in the near future also medium-range air defense systems,” Pabriks said. There is optimism that, over time, the Biden administration — or whichever administration follows it — will agree with Latvia that the European center of gravity is in the East, not the West. “Old Europe” proved itself feckless to deal with the Ukraine crisis, dawdling between weapons transfers and pining for a non-existent diplomatic process. It’s Northeast and Central Europe that stepped up most, in terms of percentages, than their Western European counterparts. And it’s in the Baltics where American leaders will hear the clearest statements of defiance against Russians and get moral clarity for why the Ukraine moment matters. “If other countries did as much as we are doing, the war would be over,” Pabriks said.
| | | | SIGN UP FOR CEPA FORUM 2022. Between September 27-29, the Center for European Policy Analysis will host debates focusing on how freedom fighters on both sides of the Atlantic are working to secure a democratic future. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | RUSSIAN CALL-UP? National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN took to the podium today to warn of new moves from Moscow. “President Putin appears to be pursuing two actions … sham referenda in areas of Ukraine under its control … in direct violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Russia is rushing to hold these referenda in response to Ukraine’s gains on the battlefield, as well as to prepare for potential mobilization measures.” Meanwhile, Russia’s lower chamber of Parliament, the State Duma, passed a bill to toughen measures to penalize deserters or insubordination, RFE/RL reported. Russia has been dogged by reports of poorly trained, underequipped troops who in recent weeks have been demoralized by Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the northeast. MORE UKRAINE AID: Norwegian Defense Minister BJORN ARILD GRAM sat down with Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN at the Pentagon early Tuesday afternoon, where the two were scheduled to talk through Ukraine and a host of bilateral issues. In a sit-down before that meeting, Gram told our own PAUL McLEARY that he doesn’t see the international effort to help Ukraine as having any end date yet. “Our position is that we have to help Ukraine as long as it takes,” since there’s no sense that the Kremlin will pull its troops out any time soon. The world has changed since Russian troops poured over the borders into Ukraine on Feb. 24, and “you have a different Russia now, that will last for as long as we can see. And there will be a confrontational Russia for a long time. The beginnings of a democracy there have been wiped out.” While the Russian army has lost thousands of troops and a staggering number of modern tanks, vehicles, and artillery pieces (along with at least 55 fighter planes ) over the past seven months, “a weakened Russia doesn't necessarily mean a less dangerous Russia,” Gram cautioned, “because they are more dependent on their nuclear capabilities now, so we have we have to continue to monitor this in the High North.” Some in Washington are beginning to worry how long the U.S. can sustain pumping billions into the war effort if the House flips in the midterm elections in November, but Gram said there is still “very broad support” in the Norwegian government across party lines to continue the military and humanitarian aid effort. Norway has pledged $1 billion in support so far for Kyiv, and plans to help with fuel supplies, and providing equipment tailored for the winter months coming up, to allow Ukraine to keep troops in the field throughout the cold months. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | AFCENT INTERVIEW: Our own LARA SELIGMAN caught up with Lt. Gen. ALEXUS GRYNKEWICH , commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, on Friday to talk about the Air Force’s Middle East operations since the withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, Iran-backed militia attacks on U.S. troops in Syria, and more. SELIGMAN: How difficult has it been to conduct counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan over the last year? GRYNKEWICH: "If you have to come in from over the horizon, whether it's a far horizon or a near horizon, it just erodes the amount of time that you have over the target or the objective area for collection purposes. While it is challenging … it's not impossible.” SELIGMAN: Aside from the strike that killed al Qaeda leader [AYMAN] AL-ZAWAHIRI in July, the U.S. has not conducted any airstrikes in Afghanistan. Why is that? GRYNKEWICH: "Our focus is on looking for external operations, threats, things that would project out of Afghanistan and threaten either the United States itself, US interests. or those of our allies and regional partners. … They're not there yet." SELIGMAN: Is ISIS still a threat in Iraq and Syria? GRYNKEWICH: "In the ungoverned spaces that exist in Syria … ISIS does get a bit of freedom of movement that allows them to do training, to gather resources that they would use internal to Iraq and Syria. But trying to execute some sort of an external attack against the United States, they're somewhat resource limited compared to where they've been." SELIGMAN: Is there still a threat from al Qaeda in Afghanistan? GRYNKEWICH: "There doesn't appear to be a decision to resume using Afghanistan in the way that they did pre 9/11 as a base as a training ground, etc. There certainly is a fair amount of al Qaeda presence. There's a historical relationship with the Taliban, so at any point, that could change and I think that's where the threat lies is if something causes al Qaeda to think about reconstituting a capability or capacity to conduct operations against the US." SELIGMAN: Iran-backed militia have launched a series of attacks against US troops in Syria in recent weeks, including most recently a failed rocket attack on Green Village on Sept. 18. What’s the latest? GRYNKEWICH: We're in a kind of an uneasy stasis. Things have kind of settled down, and there's a an understanding, I think, amongst the Iranians and the Kuds force, that if they were to do something or to direct something against us, it would blow back on them. SELIGMAN: Are you concerned about a major cross-border operation by the Turks into Syria? GRYNKEWICH: We've certainly seen some pressure on the Syrian Democratic Forces and our partners with some of the Turkish operations. As of right now, I think we're kind of in the state we are where there will be some Turkish cross border operations for the next while to deal with those valid security concerns, but not of the [more significant] kind that we’re concerned about.
| | | CRACKDOWN ON CHINA: The Federal Communications Commission on Wednesday took steps to further crack down on the ability of Chinese telecommunications groups to do business in the United States, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. The FCC formally added Pacific Networks and its wholly-owned subsidiary group ComNet and China Unicom Americas to its list of covered entities due to national security concerns. The addition of these groups to the covered list means that federal funds cannot be used to purchase any equipment from these companies. The three organizations were added due to alleged evidence that they are subject to Chinese government control and influence. The FCC previously revoked its authorization to provide service in the U.S. for China Unicom Americas in January and for Pacific Networks and ComNet in March. “Today we take another critical step to protect our communications networks from foreign national security threats,” FCC Chair JESSICA ROSENWORCEL said in a statement Wednesday. “This action demonstrates our whole-of-government effort to protect network security and privacy.” The list was established by a law signed by former President DONALD TRUMP in 2020, which required that the FCC maintain a list of equipment and services that pose a threat to national security that cannot be purchased with federal funds. The list also includes Chinese telecom giant Huawei, which appealed the FCC decision, but was shot down by a ruling from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals that upheld the FCC order last year.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | BOMBER COMING: The Air Force rollout for the B-21 Raider long-range strike bomber will occur in the first week of December, our own Lee Hudson reports (for Pros!). “The final date has not been set in stone,” Air Force acquisition chief ANDREW HUNTER told reporters on Tuesday at the annual Air, Space and Cyber conference in Maryland. Northrop Grumman is (not-so) secretly building the new bomber at its facility in Palmdale, Calif. The first flight for the B-21 is scheduled for 2023. CUTTING THE LINE: Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. BROWN told reporters at AFA today that if the Biden administration decides to send U.S. fighters to Ukraine, the service can help support Kyiv by rearranging the list of countries that are waiting for training support and give them priority, Lee writes in. The announcement comes one day after Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL told reporters that the U.S. is open to discussing options for tactical aircraft but will not be sending F-16s to the Ukrainians in the near term. “We're starting to think about that a little bit,” he said. “I've been asked about fighters, which keeps coming up.… Long-term, they're going to have to reconstitute their force for the future. And so we're prepared to discuss that with them.”
| | | OCTOBER SURPRISE: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said annual defense policy legislation that calls for a massive increase to Biden's Pentagon budget will be on the agenda just before the midterm elections. The Democratic leader told reporters this afternoon that the chamber will be in session. The Senate has two weeks in mid-October penciled in, but it was an open question whether the session would be canceled to allow vulnerable incumbents to campaign in their states. "We will be meeting in October," Schumer said. "NDAA will be part of what we do." The Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act okays $45 billion more than Biden requested for the military in the coming year. The move would mean Democrats delivering a sharp rebuke to Biden’s plans just ahead of the election. Our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports (for Pros!) that Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) said he's been pushing for a debate on the bill next month, despite the election, so House and Senate leaders have time to complete a compromise bill before the end of the year. "The outlook is that we're beginning...to solicit amendments to the bill," Reed said. "That will put us in a position to go the floor, we hope, as soon as we can. It looks at this point [like] early October."
| | | A picture is worth a thousand words. Alex sends in this photo from Riga, Latvia — a ghoulish looking banner of Putin staring out across the street in the direction of the Russian embassy.
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| | | | |   | | | | | | — Our very own BEN PAUKER is moving over the Washington Post to be national security editor. He has been world and national security editor for POLITICO since January 2021, overseeing coverage of defense, diplomacy and Canada. He even edited this newsletter, among a few other things.
| | | — JACK DETSCH, Foreign Policy: ‘We’re Working 24/7’: Ukraine Keeps Its War Machine Humming
| | | — The Air and Space Forces Association, 8:15 a.m.: "2022 Air, Space and Cyber Conference" — The Defense Strategies Institute, 8:45 a.m.: Military Tactical Communications Summit — House Oversight and Reform Committee, 9:30 a.m.: "Putin's Proxies: Examining Russia's Use of Private Military Companies." — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: "New Paradigm for Cyber Competition: A Conversation on Cyber Persistent Theory." — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: "Examining the U.S. Interest in Regional Security Cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa: Opportunities, Obstacles, and Objectives." — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: "Accountability for Atrocity Crimes Committed by Russia in Ukraine." — House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: "Update on the Implementation of Recommendations of the Independent Review Commission on Sexual Assault in the Military and the Establishment of the Office of Special Trial Counsels." — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:15 p.m.: "Women Leaders Countering Authoritarianism." — Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee, 3 p.m.: "Ensuring Veterans' Timely Access to Care in VA and the Community." — Senate Armed Services Committee, 3:30 p.m.: "The Status of Military Recruiting and Retention Efforts Across the Department of Defense." Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who is furiously learning the words to the new Space Force song so he can impress his new bosses at The Washington Post.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
