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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
The consensus is that a post-Putin Russia would be worse than it is today. | Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP | With help from Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Alex RIGA, Latvia — The top conversation in Latvia is about the war in Ukraine. But the next conversation is about what happens if Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN loses the war and his hold on power. It’s been a surreal 2.5 days here, capped with Putin ordering a partial mobilization of his military while NatSec Daily was in the middle of a conversation with JĀNIS GARISONS , Latvia’s state secretary of defense (more on the mobilization down below). But even with that provocation, the officials we spoke to as part of a trip organized and sponsored by the German Marshall Fund of the United States are already looking at what the world might look like if Putin is pushed out. The consensus is that a post-Putin Russia would be worse than it is today. Garisons offered three potential scenarios. First, an even more Stalinist state than current-day Russia. Second, an internal war, likely revolutionary against the power structure. Third, the disintegration and fragmentation of Russia, with pockets controlled by militias and warlords. The first and second scenarios would mean a leadership change, and it’s unclear who or what would be at the helm. The third would mean the man who lamented the dissolution of the Soviet Union ironically would’ve brought about the disintegration of Russia, sparking a free-for-all not seen in decades. Those, of course, aren’t the only potential futures. Putin could hold onto power, after all, especially if Russia defies current odds and wins. It’s also possible that whomever or whatever is in charge next staves off the apocalyptic predictions with strong leadership and deft diplomacy. But Latvia’s message to the world is that it's already time to start preparing for the post-post-Putin scenario. That’s where the West might have a chance to affect change and break the cycle of revolution-dictatorship-revolution-dictatorship. Even the news of the partial mobilization and not-so-subtle nuclear threats hasn’t altered Riga’s view. “There are not many ways left for [Putin] to escalate,” Garisons said. “There are limited goals [Russia] can achieve with mobilization.” Your host is writing this while waiting for a plane to Helsinki for similar conversations with Finnish officials. NatSec Daily can’t help but wonder if Latvia’s bet and overall confidence is premature. There’s still a way to go before Putin walks off the world stage, either by choice or by force. Yet Riga’s point is that there’s a chance for the West, collectively, to influence Russia’s future, even though what ultimately happens will be decided inside the country. How exactly to do that is unclear. But if Latvia and its allies want to seize that chance, the planning needs to start now.
| | | | JOIN CEPA FORUM 2022. Between September 27-29, the Center for European Policy Analysis will host dynamic conversations about how governments, businesses, and civil society across Europe and North America are protecting technological innovation from authoritarian threats. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | PUTIN ORDERS MOBILIZATION, THREATENS NUKES: Putin is amping up Russia’s campaign against Ukraine, including mobilizing 300,000 troops and renewing his threat to use nuclear weapons, Reuters reported. "When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” Putin said in a televised address on Tuesday. Ukraine’s counteroffensive fueled by Western support has eroded Russia’s gains in southern and eastern parts of the country, and is creating skepticism that Putin can topple Kyiv’s will to regain lost territory. Western defense officials have raised concerns about Putin’s willingness to make nuclear threats, but acknowledge the Russian leader’s statements aren’t anything new. "The speech is an escalation but it is also not a surprise," said NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG. “The speech of President Putin demonstrates that the war is not going according to President Putin's plans. He has made a big miscalculation." Flight tickets departing Russia have sold out and troop mobilization could likely lead to protests as Moscow has not called up reservists since World War II. BIDEN TRIES TO RALLY WORLD AGAINST RUSSIA: While President JOE BIDEN likely would've used the U.N. General Assembly to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin's threats offered the president a chance to deliver his message directly to world leaders with a renewed sense of urgency. "This war is about extinguishing Ukraine’s right to exist as a state — plain and simple — and Ukraine’s right to exist as a people," Biden said. "Whoever you are, wherever you live, whatever you believe … that should make your blood run cold." Biden’s message signaled the U.S.'s goal of keeping the war at the forefront of international attention amid global challenges such as drought and inflation, some of which have been exacerbated by the conflict and acutely affect leaders who were present for his speech. His speech may also aim to thwart domestic political headwinds as some may be growing weary of expensive U.S. weapons transfers, especially as the country’s midterm elections grow near. U.S. aid for Ukraine is approaching $16 billion and Washington has pulled weapons off the shelf for Kyiv each of the previous two weeks. Though Biden had the world’s attention on Wednesday, time will tell if Western partners can keep pace with the U.S.’s commitment as the president told 60 Minutes he’d support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.
At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | CHINA-CONTROLLED PORT IN AUSTRALIA: Australian officials are concerned about a Chinese-controlled port used by U.S. Marines to unload aircraft for training with Australian forces, The Wall Street Journal's MIKE CHERNEY reported. A 2015 deal sealed a 99-year lease that allows China's Landbridge Group to control the port. Amid rising tensions between the West and China, Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE has launched a review to examine the port’s national security risks. While it's uncertain whether he'll cancel the lease, the location of the port and length of the agreement could have implications for both sides in the event of a regional conflict. Landbridge has pushed back against concerns by emphasizing the port is privately owned and managed by Australian officials rather than being state-owned, a contrast from many of Beijing's Belt and Road initiatives in Asia and Africa. Relations between Australia and China have worsened in recent years due to trade disagreements and last year’s creation of AUKUS, Australia's military pact with the U.S. and UK. IRAN PROTESTS FOLLOWING AMINI DEATH: Iranian women are protesting by burning hijabs in response to the death of MAHSA AMINI, a woman who was arrested by Tehran's morality police and died in police custody, CNN reported. Several protesters have died and women have engaged with police, shouting chants against the Iranian leader ALI KHAMENEI.
| | | BIPARTISAN CYBERSECURITY LEGISLATION: Reps. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) and NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) said they want to create a national security strategy that incorporates emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. “We need a twenty-first-century national security strategy that recognizes AI, quantum computing and the threats we face,” Khanna said Tuesday on BRET BAIER’s Special Report on Fox News. While no formal legislation has been drafted, the comments come amid interest from Congress and the Pentagon to ensure the U.S. remains competitive with China in developing new technologies for military and civilian use. Last week, a high-profile conference that hosted national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, Speaker NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), and former Secretary of State HENRY KISSINGER sought to bolster public and private cooperation in ensuring U.S. tech dominance.
| | | PILOT TRAINING: On Wednesday, augmented reality company Red 6 and Boeing announced an agreement to develop aerial dogfighting technology and other training for next-generation aircraft such as the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and F-15EX Eagle II fighter, our own LEE HUDSON reported. The system would allow pilots to interact with aircraft and targets on the ground and in the air through virtual reality. The intent is to reduce the need for costly flights during training. Red 6 plans to install the new technology in the A-4 Skyhawk at Boeing's St. Louis facility next month.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | PAUL BEARER OF GOOD NEWS: Lawmakers could reauthorize a small business grant program set to expire at the end of September after Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) dropped his opposition to the program, Defense News' BRYANT HARRIS reported. Paul previously argued that awards for the Small Business Administration’s Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer programs were risky due to a lack of oversight regarding the relationship between award recipients and China. A 2021 Pentagon report that found some Chinese firms were benefiting from grants provided to U.S. companies. The news concerned lawmakers, who argued that the program needed additional vetting. The revamped version of the bill would require firms to disclose if they have ties to any "countries of concern."
| | | AFGHAN RESCUE GROUP CLAIMS SCAM: Save Our Allies, a U.S. nonprofit that assists Afghan rescue efforts, has filed a lawsuit after claiming it was defrauded by groups that agreed to help relocate refugees waiting in Pakistan, The Washington Post’s DAN LAMOTHE reported. The lawsuit names three companies and three individuals and seeks to recoup more than $735,000 in costs and $2.2 million damages. Save Our Allies alleges Sama Global agreed to help refugees reach Qatar by securing visas and transportation. The U.S. has struggled to process Afghan refugees as many are eligible to move due to efforts in assisting American operations in Afghanistan, but face visa delays and backlogs.
| | | |   | | | | | | — APARAJITHA VADLAMANNATI is a new public policy manager for civics and social impact for search at Google. She was the head of organic content policy for the Americas at Meta.
| | | — ROBERT HADDICK, War on The Rocks: Defeat China’s Navy, Defeat China’s War Plan — ROGER COHEN, The New York Times: Analysis: With his latest speech, President Vladimir Putin showed that he is at his most dangerous when he is cornered — ABIGAIL SEITZ, Proceedings: Gendered Language is a Barrier to Inclusion and Unit Cohesion
| | | — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 5:30 a.m.: "Nuclear Disarmament, Non-Proliferation, and Global Risks." — The Defense Strategies Institute, 8:45 a.m.: "Military Tactical Communications Summit" — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: "Space Force Training, Education and Doctrine and STARCOM's contributions to space warfighting." — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: "Learning to Win: Using Operational Innovation to Regain the Advantage at Sea against China." — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: "Securing the Air Force: A Dispatch from DAFITC 2022." — The Center for a New American Security, 5:30 p.m.: "Women in the Intelligence Community and Defense Sector." Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who knows we’re already planning for a post-Pauker and a post-post-Pauker editing room.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.
At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
