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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
The Pentagon sees no signs of Russian President Vladimir Putin planning to use a nuclear weapon any time soon. For now, the United States has no reason to change its strategic posture. | AP Photo | With help from Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex| Email Matt Programming Note: We’ll be off this Monday for Indigenous Peoples Day but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. Enjoy the long weekend! Most nuclear experts and former officials NatSec Daily spoke to don’t think President JOE BIDEN’s comparison of today’s dangers to the Cuban missile crisis and the impending threat of nuclear “Armageddon” is overblown. Some actually say it’s spot on, and arguably not alarmist enough. “This crisis is more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis,” ANDY WEBER, a former assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological programs, told NatSec Daily. There wasn’t a “hot war” in 1962 like there is now, he said, and Russia’s military doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons when faced with an existential threat, “which is how he has defined Ukraine.” “President Biden’s reported reference to ‘Armageddon’ is not an exaggeration,” Weber said. The good news, as our own LARA SELIGMAN reported, is the Pentagon sees no signs of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN planning to use a nuclear weapon any time soon. For now, the United States has no reason to change its strategic posture. The current threat “is high enough to take seriously, but that doesn't mean the probability is high,” said JEFFREY EDMONDS, who served as Russia director in the Obama administration’s National Security Council. Experts also noted some key differences between what’s happening today and the situation then-President JOHN F. KENNEDY faced, namely the actual placement of nuclear weapons threatening the American and Soviet homelands: Moscow put missiles in Cuba and the U.S. had them in Turkey. ROSE GOTTEMOELLER, formerly NATO’s No. 2 and chief negotiator of the New START nuclear agreement with Russia, added that the Cuban missile crisis featured Washington and Moscow brandishing their big intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. “In the Ukraine crisis so far, the emphasis has been on tactical weapons use, either in a nuclear demonstration strike or against a single target or a few targets on Ukrainian territory,” she said. And Putin’s nuclear threat is coming from a place of weakness after he bungled the invasion, not necessarily in service of some geopolitical calculation. “Putin has just put himself in a place where he might have no other options but losing or using nuclear weapons. But we're not there yet,” the RAND Corporation's SAMUEL CHARAP said. “He still has some cards to play.” Biden, who didn’t make his alarming comment after reviewing new intelligence, wondered aloud if the West could help Putin find an “off ramp” from nuclear escalation. Some of Biden’s European colleagues have an answer to that question. “The way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine,” Finnish Prime Minister SANNA MARIN said in a video that went viral online. Meanwhile, French President EMMANUEL MACRON, asked about Biden’s comments, said “we must speak with prudence when commenting on such matters.”
| | | | JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING’S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China’s paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO’s China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | BIRTHDAY BASH(ED): Someone in Putin’s inner circle hasn’t been so happy with the handling of the war in Ukraine, directly voicing discontent to the Russian president, the Washington Post reported on Friday, citing information gathered by U.S. intelligence. The person, whose identity was included in the intelligence reports but the Post said it could not be confirmed, has vocally expressed discontent with Putin — who turned 70 years old on Friday — about mismanagement of the war and military operations. The information was included in Biden’s daily intelligence briefing, people familiar with the matter told the Post. In recent weeks, public criticism of Russian leadership has mounted, notably from prominent pro-war Russians and state media. But news of the inner circle dispute is the clearest sign that the war hasn’t gone according to plan for the Kremlin, which was made evident after Putin’s draft order in September. NORTH KOREA SANCTIONS: The U.S. sanctioned two people and three entities that helped deliver petroleum to North Korea in response to a long week of missile tests, warplane flights and persistent escalation on and around the peninsula. “The DPRK’s ballistic missile launches are destabilizing and dangerous. Today we are sanctioning those who support the weapons programs through sanctions evasion,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN tweeted. STARLINK OUTAGES: The Starlink satellite-communications system is faltering on the frontlines, the Financial Times reported, noting that Ukrainian troops are reporting outages of their devices. An unnamed Ukrainian official told FT there was a “catastrophic” loss of connectivity in recent weeks, mainly as soldiers broke through Russian lines and in the middle of some battles. The incidents “were acute in the south around the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, but also occurred along the front line in eastern Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk,” per the FT. It’s a bad look for ELON MUSK ’s network, which he also offered to Iranian protesters to get around the Islamist regime’s internet blackout. He responded on Twitter to the report: “Bad reporting by FT. This article falsely claims that Starlink terminals & service were paid for, when only a small percentage have been. This operation has cost SpaceX $80M & will exceed $100M by end of year. As for what’s happening on the battlefield, that’s classified.” And it’s especially bad news for the Ukrainians who rely on the system to communicate with each other during intense fighting and sensitive campaigns. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Slovakian Ambassador to the U.S. RADOVAN JAVORČÍK, whom NatSec Daily interviewed Wednesday. When he’s not holding meetings around town, the ambassador can be found enjoying a beer or two at Saufhaus near Dupont Circle. He likes to perch on the side of the roof and look out on D.C. while downing some fine German ales. You might catch him there talking about the NHL, especially as he boasts about Slovakia’s stars in the league. Cheers, ambassador! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | The USS Ronald Regan aircraft carrier joined South Korean warships in a series of maritime drills on Friday aimed to deter North Korea amid recent missile tests, the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reported. The exercises will feature U.S. and South Korean destroyers and will take place along the east coast of the Korean peninsula. Heightened tensions in the region come as U.S. officials accused Russia and China of enabling North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. "The DPRK (North Korea) has enjoyed blanket protection from two members of this council," LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD , U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations said on Wednesday. "In short, two permanent members of the Security Council have enabled KIM JONG UN."
| | | ELECTION SECURITY RISKS: Experts believe that a recent string of cyber attacks in Colorado and Kentucky from Russian hacktivist groups are designed to undermine confidence in U.S. election security ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, NBC News’ KEVIN COLLIER reported. Given the decentralized nature of U.S. elections, any efforts to conduct a coordinated nationwide attack would be impossible. However, Killnet, a Russian hacking group, posted a list of a dozen states on its Telegram channel that could be hit with distributed denial-of-service attacks that target websites by overwhelming them with traffic, a tactic also used by Ukraine’s IT Army. JEN EASTERLY, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, claimed she wasn’t aware of any current threats to 2022 elections despite recent attacks in some states.
| | | MORE MISSILES PLEASE: Kuwait’s defense systems are about to become a whole lot stronger, thanks to a $3 billion medium-range missile defense system sale for Kuwait approved by the State Department Thursday, Defense News’ BRYANT HARRIS reported. With the sale, Kuwait will be able to receive the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS, which is made as a joint venture between Raytheon Technologies and Norway’s Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace. Raytheon is the principal contractor on the sale. It’s the same missile system used to defend airspace over the White House and Pentagon. Hungary and India have also bought the system in recent years. Ukraine will join the club soon, after the U.S. announced in July that it would purchase NASAMS for Kyiv.
| | | SASSE LEAVES SWAMP TO BE GATOR: Our own BURGESS EVERETT and MARIANNE LEVINE report in on what Senate Intelligence Committee member Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.) — who announced his retirement on Thursday — is looking forward to when he takes up his new position as president of the University of Florida. The university said that Sasse was the sole finalist for the position. In a statement, Sasse said he and his wife have “resisted being a finalist” for other positions, but “[t]his time is different because the University of Florida is different: I think Florida is the most interesting university in America right now.” Sasse said the best part of his job was working on the intelligence panel, calling it the most effective part of the Senate that he worked in. SENATORS WANT KAZAKHSTAN REASSESSMENT: Four Senate Democrats are calling upon SecState Blinken to reassess America’s security assistance to Kazakhstan following its security forces’ crackdown on protesters in January. “Given reports of the involvement of U.S.-trained units in security efforts accompanied by widespread human rights abuses, it is imperative that we evaluate the effectiveness and use of U.S. security assistance,” Sens. BOB MENEDENEZ (D-N.J.), the SFRC chair, wrote in a letter to Blinken alongside Sens. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) and SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio). They’ve requested a “detailed review” of how State ensures none of its assistance “goes to policy or military personnel implicated in human rights violations.” More than 200 people died during the violent suppression of protests over fuel price hikes. The Kazakh government has yet to provide a detailed accounting of what happened.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | ‘NO POINT IN NEGOTIATING’: NPR’s STEVE INSKEEP played portions of an earlier interview with Iranian Foreign Minister HOSSEIN AMIR-ABDOLLAHIAN to U.S. special envoy for Iran ROB MALLEY, allowing the American diplomat to respond semi-directly to the Iranian officials’ statements on everything from the protests to nuclear diplomacy. After Amir-Abdollahian blamed the U.S. and other foreign nations for stirring up Iranian passions, Malley said “Nobody is demonstrating because of the United States. Nobody in Iran is angry at their government because of the United States. They're angry because of the policies of their government.” The Iranian also said there are only “a couple” issues remaining to revive the nuclear deal. Malley countered that Iran keeps adding new, unrelated demands whenever it appears a deal has been reached. And while Iran wants a guarantee the next U.S. president can’t withdraw from the pact, like former President DONALD TRUMP did in 2018, Malley said that’s impossible to give. “We can't control what the next president does,” he told NPR. “So if that's something that Iran insists upon, there's no point in negotiating."
| | | — ALI BAKIR has joined the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Security Initiative as a nonresident senior fellow. He is currently an assistant professor at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences. — Russian Colonel-General ALEXANDER CHAIKO was fired as the commander of the Eastern Military District. The reshuffle, to put it mildly, for the top brass continues after Russia’s disastrous military campaign in Ukraine. — SABRINA SINGH, who has been serving as the Defense Department’s director of integrated campaigns, has been tapped as deputy Pentagon press secretary. Singh came over to the Pentagon in April from the White House, where she was Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ deputy press secretary.
| | | |   | | | | | | — The White House: National Strategy for the Arctic Region — BRIAN MILAKOVSKY, Foreign Affairs: Collaborators or Compatriots? How Ukraine Should Treat Residents of Territory It Retakes From Russia — THERESE RAPHAEL, Bloomberg: On Putin's Birthday, the Nobel Peace Prize Honors His Enemies
| | | — The Association of the United States Army Meeting, 8 a.m.: “Building the Army of 2030” — RAND Corporation, 9:30 a.m.: “The View of the Taiwan Strait from the U.S.-Japan Alliance” — The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies, 3 p.m.: "Energy Security After Ukraine: What are the Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. and its Allies?" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose quiet disapproval of our leadership of this newsletter didn’t make it into the president’s daily briefing. A forever thank you to our great producer, Kierra Frazier!
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
