|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
President Joe Biden, joined by from left, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, listens during a meeting. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman, Phelim Kine and Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Your friends here at NatSec Daily read the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy, so you don’t have to. If you’ve listened to President JOE BIDEN or national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN talk at all about the state of world affairs, then you’ll recognize a lot of what’s to follow. The post-Cold War era is “definitively over,” the Biden administration declared in the document delayed by the war in Ukraine, describing its intention to compete ferociously against China and Russia — while also collaborating with them on global threats like climate change. In a foreword, Biden calls this the “decisive decade to advance America’s vital interests.” The most pressing problem, per the strategy: “powers that layer authoritarian governance with a revisionist foreign policy” — that is, China and Russia. China “is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it,” the administration declares in the strategy. To win that competition, the Biden administration says it will help countries meet their needs without the reciprocation China typically expects, work to maintain peace between China and Taiwan, align a diplomatic approach toward China with allies, and work with Beijing on areas where U.S. and Chinese interests align. As for Russia, which the document says “has chosen to pursue an imperialist foreign policy with the goal of overturning key elements of the international order,” the U.S. will proceed to punish the country for the invasion of Ukraine. But, just like with China, the Biden administration is open to working with Russia in areas where a partnership can be “mutually beneficial.” The language in the new document echoes the Trump administration’s national security strategy, which asserted “ great power competition returned,” and the second Obama-era iteration, which emphasized the need to revitalize democracy at home while partnering with allies on global issues. It makes sense, as Biden, Sullivan, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have spoken repeatedly in both Trumpian and Obamian terms on world affairs, sometimes in the same sentence. Read more of your host’s coverage of the National Security Strategy here.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | BIDEN CHANGES TUNE: Biden told CNN host JAKE TAPPER in an interview late Tuesday that he doesn’t think Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN will use nuclear weapons, changing his tune from predicting nuclear catastrophe to expecting everything to be fine — in less than a week, as our own OLIVIA OLANDER reported. Biden warned of a nuclear “Armageddon” at a private fundraiser Thursday night, comparing the prospect of Putin reaching into his nuclear arsenal to the Cuban missile crisis five decades ago. When asked by Tapper whether he thinks the Russian leader will actually use the weapons, the president said, “I don’t think he will. But I think that it’s irresponsible for him to talk about it.” DOUBLING DOWN: At a conference of NATO ministers in Brussels on Wednesday, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN pledged unequivocal support for Ukraine, saying that “our support for Ukraine’s right to defend itself doesn’t hinge on the outcome of any particular battle. Our resolve to support Ukraine’s defenders extends through all seasons.” That’s as the U.S. is getting dragged deeper into the Ukraine conflict on multiple fronts as it tries to keep up support for Kyiv as the war escalates, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO, NAHAL TOOSI and JONATHAN LEMIRE report. Sending advanced air defenses to Ukraine is now a top priority for the Biden administration, a senior U.S. official confirmed on Tuesday. “We’re in a situation that we have not seen since the Cuban [missile] crisis,” Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) told POLITICO in an interview. “The more we can do to secure the airspace of Ukraine and help protect the Ukrainian people — that’s something we have to do.” POLITICO CHINA EVENT RENDERS BIPARTISAN ALIGNMENT: A POLITICO Live event hosted by our China Watcher colleague PHELIM KINE on Wednesday was a potent reminder that the only truly bipartisan issue on Capitol Hill is the perception of a China threat. Kine convened Sen. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.), Rep. DARIN LAHOOD (R-Ill.) and SUSAN SHIRK, former deputy assistant secretary of State and chair of the 21st Century China Center at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. That panel unpacked the implications of Chinese leader XI JINPING’s likely accession to a third term as China’s paramount leader at next week’s 20th Party Congress in Beijing. On issues ranging from Taiwan policy to the alleged genocide against Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, both Merkley and LaHood showed close alignment on optimal U.S. government responses. There was even bipartisan solidarity over the issue of the Biden administration maintaining 301 trade tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese-produced products over concerns about predatory trade practices despite record-high inflation hitting U.S. consumers. “If we were at this moment to release those tariffs, we would be saying to China, ‘You know in the end, we're a sucker for a cheap product. And you can do whatever the hell you want to our companies over in China,'” Merkley said. LaHood echoed that sentiment. “I’m not a fan of tariffs… [but] if you look at these predatory trade practices that China continues to engage in, what options do you have left except for tariffs?” You can watch the entire 45-minute discussion here. 10-YEAR PLAN: NATO is developing a 10-year plan to retrain the Ukrainian military and rebuild the country’s defense industry, with the first meeting between the alliance and Ukraine slated for next week, our own PAUL McLEARY reports in from Brussels. The meeting will be the start of a long process hinted at for weeks by U.S. and NATO officials of a long-term commitment to Kyiv to bring it closer to the alliance, in both training and equipment. A senior NATO official told reporters the goal is to shift away from Soviet equipment to NATO-compatible western equipment. The top acquisition officials from the alliance met this month to start planning ways to help the Ukrainian defense industry, while replenishing their own stocks of weapons and equipment that have been donated to Ukraine since the start of the war. That wider effort stretching beyond the day-to-day battlefield needs of the Ukrainian military will require years of focused attention of partners stretching from Warsaw to Ottawa, an effort that could eventually transform Ukraine into a NATO country by default, even if it is not a member of the alliance. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | POWER PLANT LOSES POWER: For the second time this week, Ukraine’s largest power plant in Zaporizhzhia lost all external power needed for its vital safety systems to function — a problem the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog called “deeply worrying,” the Associated Press’ ADAM SCHRECK and HANNA ARHIROVA report. Monitors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear plant in Europe, alerted the interruption in power, according to RAFAEL GROSSI , director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Grossi, who spoke with Putin on Tuesday, said backup generators were keeping the plant’s safety equipment operational for the time being. Energoatom, Ukraine’s state nuclear operator, blamed the outage on shelling at a substation in the nearby Dnipropetrovsk region. Five hours after Grossi announced the outage, however, he said power had been restored and urged more protection for the plant. “I've been informed by our team on site that external power to #Zaporizhzhya NPP is restored. #ZNPP's operator says this morning's outage was caused by shelling damage to a far off sub-station, highlighting how precarious the situation is,” Grossi said in a tweet. “We need a protection zone ASAP.”
| | | INTERNET DISRUPTIONS IN IRAN: Internet traffic in Iran has decreased by 25 percent, Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL reports. “The incident is likely to further limit the free flow of information amid protests,” said NetBlocks, a cybersecurity advocacy group. The internet disruptions come after weeks of demonstrations throughout the country following the death of MAHSA AMINI, a 22-year-old woman who died after being detained by the country’s morality police. ELON MUSK ’s Starlink system was deployed in Iran following pressure from U.S. lawmakers who urged the Treasury Department to help facilitate its deployment. Tehran restricted access to Instagram and WhatsApp after the protests began.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CIVCAS MEETING: Members of the Pentagon’s civilian harm mitigation and response steering committee – Undersecretary of Defense for Policy COLIN KAHL, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. CHRISTOPHER GRADY and Comptroller MIKE McCORD -- met for the first time on Wednesday to talk about next steps to implement the new policy, a defense official told NatSec Daily. It’s the start of a massive overhauling of the way the Defense Department approaches civilian harm that includes eventually adding 160 people from the Pentagon to the combatant commands to focus on the issue, the official said. But the changes will not alter the military’s targeting cycle, the official said – rather, they are designed to provide commanders more information so they can make better warfighting decisions. BABY STEPS: The Army this week began laying the foundation for using predictive maintenance for the CH-47 Chinook to keep the helicopters flying and not in the hangar for preventable maintenance, our own LEE HUDSON writes in from the annual Association of the United States Army exhibition and conference. Boeing delivered its predictive maintenance tool: a fleet health assessment plan that uses hardware and software to track what items need maintenance on individual aircraft, DAN GILLIAN, the company’s vice president and general manager of U.S. government services, tells Lee. Maintenance personnel can now upload data from the helicopter after each flight that feeds into software that shows mechanics if fluid is low or a part needs to be replaced.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | DEMOCRATS SLAM SAUDI ARABIA: Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) unveiled legislation on Wednesday to halt all weapons sales to Saudi Arabia following a decision from OPEC+ to cut oil production despite pressure from the U.S. “The Saudis need to come to their senses," Blumenthal told reporters. "They have committed a humongous blunder. The only apparent purpose of this cut in oil supply is to help the Russians and harm Americans. … Now, we need to rebalance our relationship” with Saudi Arabia. The proposal is part of larger growing outrage among Democrats in Washington as the reduction in energy production risks fracturing the U.S.-led coalition against Russia's invasion of Ukraine as Europe prepares for a cold winter amid soaring energy prices. Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) released a statement first reported by POLITICO that slammed OPEC+'s cuts as a way of undermining U.S. efforts to support Ukraine. “There simply is no room to play both sides of this conflict,” Menendez wrote. SENATE BEGINS NDAA DEBATE: Deliberations over the Senate’s annual defense bill began Tuesday with modifications to the bill that included increased security assistance for Taiwan and adding on legislation for intelligence agencies, our CONNOR O’BRIEN reported (for Pros!). The bill includes provisions to speed up U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Sen. Menendez pushed for the addition of the Taiwan Policy Act, which cleared a Foreign Relations Committee in September and would authorize nearly $7 billion in military aid to the self-governing island over the next five years. The chamber also included appropriations for U.S. intelligence agencies after Sens. MARK WARNER (D-V.a.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) introduced the bill in July and later filed it as an amendment within the NDAA. Senators also tacked on the Coast Guard authorization bill introduced in September by Sens. MARIA CANTWELL (D-Wash.) and ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.). Senators likely won’t vote until Nov. 14, after the midterm elections.
| | | SAUDI DEFIED U.S. OIL WARNINGS: U.S. officials called their Saudi counterparts days before OPEC+ announced oil production cuts and implored them to delay by at least a month, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. “U.S. officials warned Saudi leaders that a cut would be viewed as a clear choice by Riyadh to side with Russia in the Ukraine war and that the move would weaken already-waning support in Washington for the kingdom,” per the WSJ. “Saudi officials dismissed the requests, which they viewed as a political gambit by the Biden administration to avoid bad news ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.” Now OPEC+ is reducing oil production by around 2 million barrels per day. The decision has tanked Saudi Arabia’s already low reputation in Washington, leading lawmakers in the House and Senate to call for a temporary end to arms sales and a less formal relationship. Biden and top White House officials say they are open to altering ties between Washington and Riyadh.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SAMEER PUNYANI is now a senior adviser to the under secretary of Defense for intelligence and security at the Pentagon. He most recently served as the chief of staff in the office of irregular warfare and counterterrorism in OSD Policy. — PAMELA HAMAMOTO was named the U.S. pandemic negotiator for the proposed pandemic prevention accord currently being discussed at the World Health Organization. Hamamoto previously served as the U.S. permanent representative to the office of the United Nations and other international organizations in Geneva. — BRITTANY BRAMELL PUNARO, former head of public affairs for the CIA, and LAUREN CLAFFEY TOMLINSON, former head of strategic comms for DHS, are launching Steer PR, a strategic comms and critical issue advisory firm. — SAM FRANCO is now deputy director of legislative and public affairs at the Architect of the Capitol. He most recently was chief of the legislative team at the Department of Veterans Affairs.
| | | — LEON PANETTA, POLITICO: Military Force Is the Only Effective Response to Putin’s Nuclear Threats — ANDRIY ZAGORODNYUK, Foreign Affairs: Ukraine’s Path to Victory — JEREMY SHAPIRO, War On The Rocks: The End of the World is Nigh
| | | — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Afghanistan Under the Taliban and its Regional Impact — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: "Exploiting a Hidden Window of Opportunity to Deter a Conflict over Taiwan." — The SETA Foundation at Washington D.C., 11 a.m.: "Turkiye-Greece Tensions: Implications for NATO and Turkish-American Relations." — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin holds a news conference at 11:30 a.m., at the NATO Defense Ministerial at NATO Headquarters. — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 4 p.m.: "Revisiting Arctic Geopolitics: Climate, Competition, and Governance." — Axios, 5:30 p.m.: "Guarding Against and Responding to Cyberattacks" — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 5:30 p.m.: "Finland, NATO, and the Lessons of History?" — George Washington University, 5:30 p.m.: The Only Latina in the Room: Female Representation in National Security Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who can’t wait to declare the Alex Ward era over. And thank you to our brilliant producer, Kierra Frazier.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
