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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Lawrence Ukenye and Matt Berg | | 
After Sweden and Finland declared their interest shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO members lauded the strategic benefits both Nordic states would bring. | Jean-Christophe Guillaume/Getty Images | With help from Alex Ward and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt We’re nine months into Sweden and Finland’s NATO bid, and it’s looking ever-less likely that their wish will be granted. After both countries declared their interest shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO members lauded the strategic benefits both Nordic states would bring, from strengthening Europe's eastern flank and adding two robust defense industries. But Turkey has vowed to stand in the way of the ascension of both countries. That’s not going to change anytime soon — particularly for Sweden, experts say. “Turkey is probably going to sit on this approval process,” SONER CAGAPTAY, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute, told NatSec Daily. “And Ankara might signal that it's willing to let Finland go in but I think Sweden is definitely stuck.” While Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN and other officials have tied Sweden’s bid to concerns about harboring individuals Ankara deems terrorists, Cagaptay said Turkey’s upcoming elections in May might help explain its desire to leverage its position as a NATO member. Erdogan might use anti-Muslim demonstrations in Sweden to rally domestic support to distract from inflation pressures at home. Erdogan has floated the idea of admitting Finland separately, and Helsinki defense officials have raised the possibility that Finland might consider entering NATO on its own. For two countries that traditionally collaborate on security efforts, a solo admission for Finland could complicate both sides’ relationship if dialogue doesn’t happen between them beforehand, the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ MAX BERGMANN told NatSec Daily. “If Finland were to just take a unilateral action to say ‘OK, we're, we're fine with moving forward without Sweden,’ I think that would be a stab in the back,” Bergmann said. “I don't see that happening. I think what we would see is a discussion in Sweden essentially okay-ing Finland to go for me without them.” In the past week, anti-Muslim protesters who burned the Quran in Stockholm made the possibility of a joint bid even more less likely. Turkish officials claimed the Swedish government was complicit in the demonstrations, which Ankara views as proof of Islamophobia in Europe. “Those who allow such blasphemy in front of our embassy [in Stockholm] can no longer expect our support for their NATO membership,” Erdoğan said Monday. That sentiment has continued, with Turkish Foreign Minister MEVLUT CAVUSOGLU on Thursday saying it would be “meaningless” to hold trilateral talks alongside the Nordic countries. Bergmann believes that the alliance is stronger with both countries rather than one. “You would just sort of have a gap in NATO force planning,” he said. “It would make everything much more logistically complicated to add Finland and not Sweden.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | HARRIS TO LEAD IN MUNICH: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS will once again head the U.S. delegation to the Munich Security Conference, two people familiar with her plans told Alex. Harris’ appearance at Europe’s premier defense conference in February is a sign of the continued importance the U.S. is putting on transatlantic cooperation on Ukraine nearly one year into the war. It also follows weeks of tense negotiations with German officials, who had said they’d send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine if the U.S. sent its Abrams tanks. Both countries ended up pledging to send them, and numerous other allies vowed to follow suit with their own tanks. Now, we wait to see how Ukraine’s allies respond to their request for fighter jets. Scroll to the Complex section for more on that topic. PLOT FOILED: Three members of an Eastern European criminal group with ties to Iran have been indicted for plotting to murder a U.S. journalist and human rights activist who was critical of the Iranian regime, our own KELLY GARRITY reports. The men were charged with murder-for-hire and money laundering for their role in a plot to kill MASIH ALINEJAD, an Iranian-American journalist, on U.S. soil. The Tehran-backed plan resembles similar assassination schemes targeting former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON and former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO last year. “The victim in this case was targeted for exercising the rights to which every American citizen is entitled,” Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND told reporters, noting Alinejad’s outspoken comments in interviews and online against human rights abuses in Iran. UKRAINE FIGHTING INTENSIFIES: Russian forces ramped up their efforts to break through Ukraine’s defenses today with heavy shelling in the northern and eastern regions, Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH and IVAN LYUBYSH-KIRDEY report, citing Ukrainian officials. At least 10 Ukrainians were killed and 20 others wounded in the past day, regional officials said. The fighting follows a barrage of Russian missile attacks yesterday, which killed at least 11 people. The frontlines have remained largely unchanged in the past two months as winter brought the persistent fighting to a lull. In the past week, however, Russian troops have focused their efforts on the east, capturing the salt mining town of Soledar near Bakhmut, a key city that’s been the scene of some of the war’s heaviest fighting. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. This week, we’re featuring Lawrence, whose byline you’ve seen on this very newsletter for several months now. He’ll be starting as a POLITICO Fellow later this year, so we figured this is very well-earned. A Temple University senior, you can find him enjoying a mojito at Philadelphia's El Camino Real. The restaurant is located in the city's Northern Liberties, where he likes to unwind and complain with his roommates about Temple Men's Basketball. He'll also be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game this weekend, so Go Birds. IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | U.S. RAID IN SOMALIA: A senior Islamic State militant and about a dozen other operatives were killed during a U.S. military assault in Somalia on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal’s VIVIAN SALAMA reported. U.S. forces had intended to capture BILAL AL-SUDANI, who was a key player in ISIS’s global network, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN told reporters on Thursday. Ten other militants were killed in the raid, which took place in a mountainous cave complex in the northern part of the country. Al-Sudani was “responsible for fostering the growing presence of ISIS in Africa and for funding the group’s operations worldwide, including in Afghanistan,” Austin said. MELEE IN THE MOUNTAINS: Indian authorities are expecting more clashes with Chinese troops in the Himalayas in the next couple years, Reuters’ KRISHN KAUSHIK reports. The contested Ladakh region has been the site of numerous violent interactions between Chinese and Indian forces stationed there. At least two dozen soldiers were killed in a fight in Ladakh in 2020, and there was another clash in December, though there were no deaths. The assessment, part of a confidential research paper by the Ladakh police viewed by Reuters, states that a flare-up in tensions in the area, based on activity in the past decade, will happen every two to three years. Given China’s increasing military interests in the region, the report says, Indian forces predict skirmishes to become more frequent. ALLEGED LETTER BOMBER CHARGED: The man accused of sending envelopes containing explosive devices to officials and embassies in Spain last year was charged with six separate terrorism offenses today. The man, a 74-year-old identified only by the initials PGP, was arrested earlier this week by Spanish authorities, the Associated Press’ JENNIFER O'MAHONY reports. Last year, he allegedly sent letter bombs to Spain’s prime minister and the U.S. and Ukrainian embassies in the country, in what investigators believe was a plot conducted by Moscow. Inside the man’s house, investigators found “a workshop with tools, welding, metal elements and screws,” Spain’s interior ministry said in a statement. Officials believe the materials were intended for manufacturing new devices.
| | | SEMICONDUCTOR SQUAD: U.S. and Dutch officials are meeting in Washington D.C. on Friday to strike a deal that would impose new export restrictions on key Dutch microchip technology to China, our own PIETER HAECK and BRENDAN BORDELON report (for Pros!). But "discussions are ongoing," and there's "not really an idea on when there will be a result," SEAN SILBERT, a senior adviser at the Dutch embassy in Washington, told POLITICO. Other outlets have reported that a deal is in reach, citing unnamed sources. An agreement to limit advanced technology sales to China would be a major win for Washington in its efforts to stop the rise of China as a tech superpower. It would notably stop some of the sales of advanced microchip printing equipment by Dutch giant ASML, one of the few companies in the world to produce the printers needed to manufacture high-end semiconductors. But a deal is expected to shake up relations between The Hague and other E.U. capitals, as it would create a parallel export controls regime between the U.S., the Netherlands and others that challenges the E.U.'s common posture toward China. ON THIN ICE: The Biden administration’s top intelligence official expects major resistance in Congress to renew one of the U.S. intelligence community’s most valuable and controversial authorities, our own JOSH GERSTEIN reports. It’s far from clear that lawmakers will renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act before it expires at the end of this year, Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES told a classified information reform conference in Austin, Texas, yesterday. "I think it will be extremely challenging, honestly. This is our sense,” Haines said. She characterized the authority as “absolutely critical” and “fundamental to our work.” The act allows U.S. spy agencies to collect data on foreigners held by U.S. tech companies. Lawmakers have criticized the program's past use and abuse, including how intelligence agencies have incidentally collected private communications from Americans instead of non-Americans abroad, which the program is supposed to target. “There's a lot of skepticism in Congress about reauthorizing these tools,” Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) said at the conference in Austin on Friday. He added that the act is “described as the crown jewels of the intelligence community,” and said it’s up to the intel community to prove that 702 can be used appropriately with oversight.
| | | TIME TO TRAIN: Ukraine has started looking at ways to begin fighter jet training even before any country decides to send them, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report, citing a Ukrainian official. The training could start on simulators in Europe — without U.S. help — with a handful of pilots, the official said. Long-range artillery, and specifically ATACMS missiles, remain at the top of Kyiv’s list. The Ukrainian government is still intent on taking back the territory captured by Russia, including Crimea, and it’s hard to imagine that campaign succeeding without the ability to target airfields and command-and-control centers deep behind Russian lines.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | MUSICAL CHAIRS: Senate and House Democrats unveiled more details on who will serve on what committees in the new Congress. On the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Democratic roster is unchanged. That means one Republican vacancy will likely go unfilled to give Democrats a majority on the committee, since ranking member JIM INHOFE resigned at the end of the Congress. Illinois Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH is joining the Foreign Relations Committee, replacing Massachusetts Sen. ED MARKEY. Georgia Sen. JON OSSOFF joins the Intelligence Committee, while Michigan Sen. GARY PETERS adds Appropriations to his committee assignments. In the House, five freshmen were named to the House Armed Services Committee: Reps. JEFF JACKSON of North Carolina, GABE VASQUEZ of New Mexico, CHRIS DELUZIO of Pennsylvania, JILL TOKUDA of Hawaii and DON DAVIS of North Carolina. Three were named to House Foreign Affairs: Reps. JARED MOSKOWITZ of Florida, JONATHAN JACKSON of Illinois and SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE of California.
| | | SYRIAN AIR FORCE TO BLAME: Syria’s air force was likely responsible for dropping chlorine gas on the city of Douma in an attack that killed 43 people five years ago, a global chemical weapons watchdog announced today. A report by the U.N-backed Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons found “reasonable grounds to believe” Syrian forces were to blame, the Associated Press’ MIKE CORDER reports. It’s the latest confirmation that Syrian President BASHAR ASSAD’s regime used chemical weapons to stop his nation’s civil war. While Syria joined OPCW a decade ago, it does not recognize the group’s authority and has repeatedly denied using chemical weapons in the past. Syrian officials did not immediately respond to the report’s accusations. THEY KNOW WHAT’S UP: The Marshall Islands is set to receive $700 million in new support from the U.S. over the next four years, and its leaders know why. “It’s because of China. We’re not naive,” Marshallese Foreign Minister KITLANG KABUA, who helps lead the Pacific island chain of 80,000 people, told The Washington Post’s PETE McKENZIE. For the past four decades, the Marshall Islands have relied on the U.S., its former colonizer, to provide aid to the country. Though talks to renew the 20-year treaty, which expires this year, haven’t gone so hot in past months, the island nation’s leaders are optimistic that U.S. tensions with China will give them the leverage they want. “We’re caught between two big powers like a girl two boys are fighting over,” PETERSON JIBAS, a Marshallese senator and member of the country’s negotiating team, told the Post.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ALLISON VARRICCHIO has left the White House, where she was director for Afghanistan at the National Security Council. She is going back to the State Department to work on South and Central Asia issues.
| | | — BRYAN BENDER, POLITICO: ‘Thousands of Men Have Come Home Because of Him’ — JUSTYNA GUDZOWSKA and NATHALIA DUKHAN, POLITICO: Russia’s Bloody Sledgehammer — TALAL MOHAMMAD, Foreign Policy: Why Saudi Arabia Doesn’t Want Iran’s Regime to Fall
| | | — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will leave for a trip to meet with leaders in Egypt, Israel and the West Bank on Sunday and return Tuesday. — Washington Post Live, 10 a.m.: New Western Aid for the War in Ukraine and Russian Military Shake-up — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: Blinken's Trip to Beijing: U.S.-China Relations at a Crossroads — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: The Russian War in Ukraine: What Was Accomplished in Minsk 2014-2022 and Why Did the Peace Process Ultimately Fail? — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: Readying Defense for the Future of Work — The Wilson Center's Cold War International History Project, 4 p.m.: Euromissiles: The Nuclear Weapons that Nearly Destroyed NATO — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Lessons Learned From the Russo-Ukraine War and How They Can be Applied to a U.S. China Conflict — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 7 p.m.: A South Korean Nuclear Program? Assessing the Risks Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has intensified fighting with the authors of this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who shields us from ongoing offensives.
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Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
